Változik-e a kőolaj szerepe a világgazdaságban és Magyarországon? = The (un)changing role of oil in global economy and Hungary

A kőolaj (és a földgáz), a XX. században felfutott fosszilis energiahordozók történetileg a szenet váltották fel. Ma egyértelműen meghatározzák a világ energiafelhasználását. Miután fosszilisak, rövid távon nem újratermelhetőek, ezért felhasználásuk történetét végigkísérte a feltárt és feltárható készletek mennyiségének állandó újrabecslése is, és folyamatosan jelen van a végességükre vonatkozó apokaliptikus kép, amit az elmúlt 40 év rendkívül hektikus, sokszor kiugróan magas árai is alátámasztanak. Cikkünkben reális képet szeretnénk adni az olaj mennyiségi és árváltozásairól, és ezek lehetséges közgazdasági, társadalmi hatásairól. Miután a rendelkezésre álló hely kevés, csak a legfontosabb összefüggéseket emeljük ki, bizonyos adatokat is inkább illusztrációszerűen közlünk. Célunk nem mélyelemzés, hanem egy átfogó helyzetkép. Vázoljuk a kőolajjal kapcsolatos fontosabb történeti mozzanatokat, a kőolaj felhasználásának irányait Európában és Magyarországon, valamint a készletekkel kapcsolatos összefoglaló gondolatokat. _______________ The volatile oil prices of the past 40 years have always foreshadowed an apocalyptic vision of the exhaustion of global reserves. The paper reviews the important historical moments of the usage of oil, with a special focus on Europe and Hungary. It also details issues related to oil reserves. The main conclusions of the paper are the following: (1) fears of exhausting oil reserves have been rebutted several times; (2) high oil prices can be barriers to the development of the transportation sector, even if innovation is happening in the background; (3) the distribution of oil reserves carries huge political risks; and (4) it is unclear what will take the place of oil as the main source of energy.

Anatomy and lessons of the global financial crisis. Is US consumption financed by Chinese savings?

Savings and investments in the American money market by emerging countries, primarily China, financed the excessive consumption of the United States in the early 2000s, which indirectly led to a global financial crisis. The crisis started from the real estate mortgage market. Such balance disrupting processes began on the American financial market which contradicted all previously known equilibrium theories of every school of economics. Economics has yet to come up with models or empirical theories for this new disequilibrium. This is why the outbreak of the crisis could not be prevented or at least predicted. The question is, to what extent can existing market theories, calculation methods and the latest financial products be held responsible for the new situation. This paper studies the influence of the efficient market and modern portfolio theory, as well as Li’s copula function on the American investment market. Naturally, the issues of moral risks and greed, credit ratings and shareholder control, limited liability and market regulations are aspects, which cannot be ignored. In summary, the author outlines the potential alternative measures that could be applied to prevent a new crisis, defines the new directions of economic research and draws the conclusion for the Hungarian economic policy.

A tudásreprezentáció és a tudásmegosztás információtechnológiai megoldásai a személyazonosság-menedzsment területén (Knowledge Representation and Sharing for Identity Management Domain)

A személyazonosság-menedzsment napjaink fontos kutatási területe mind elméleti, mind gyakorlati szempontból. A szakterületen megvalósuló együttműködés, elektronikus tudásáramoltatás és csere hosszú távon csak úgy képzelhető el, hogy az azonos módon történő értelmezést automatikus eszközök támogatják. A szerző cikkében azokat a kutatási tevékenységeket foglalja össze, amelyeket - felhasználva a tudásmenedzsment, a mesterséges intelligencia és az információtechnológia eszközeit - a személyazonosság-menedzsment terület fogalmi leképezésére, leírására használt fel. Kutatási célja olyan közös fogalmi bázis kialakítása volt személyazonosság-menedzsment területre, amely lehetővé teszi az őt körülvevő multidimenzionális környezet kezelését. A kutatás kapcsolódik a GUIDE kutatási projekthez is, amelynek a szerző résztvevője. ______________ Identity management is an important research field from theoretical and practical aspects as well. The task itself is not new, identification and authentication was necessary always in public administration and business life. Information Society offers new services for citizens, which dramatically change the way of administration and results additional risks and opportunities. The goal of the demonstrated research was to formulate a common basis for the identity management domain in order to support the management of the surrounding multidimensional environment. There is a need for capturing, mapping, processing knowledge concerning identity management in order to support reusability, interoperability; to help common sharing and understanding the domain and to avoid inconsistency. The paper summarizes research activities for the identification, conceptualisation and representation of domain knowledge related to identity management, using the results of knowledge management, artificial intelligence and information technology. I utilized the experiences of Guide project, in which I participate. The paper demonstrates, that domain ontologies could offer a proper solution for identity management domain conceptualisation.

A rejtett gazdaság és az ellene való fellépés tényezői = The hidden economy and the factors involved in combating it

A szerzők közgazdasági modellek áttekintése segítségével elemzik a rejtett gazdaságban való részvétel tényezőit. Bemutatják, hogy a haszonmaximáló cselekvők a rejtett gazdaság egyes megjelenési formáival kapcsolatos döntésük meghozatala során (például adócsalás esetében) számot vetnek a rejtett gazdaságban való részvétel, illetve az attól való tartózkodás költségeivel és hasznaival. A tanulmány az adócsalás társadalmilag optimális szintjének meghatározásával foglalkozik a rejtett gazdasággal szembeni kormányzati lépések egyes típusaival, ezek hatásaival és a rejtett gazdasággal szembeni optimális kormányzati politika lehetőségeivel. _______ The authors analyse the factors behind participation in the hidden economy, through a review of the models of economic theory. They show that those seeking to maximize profits weigh various forms of the hidden economy (tax evasion, for instance), in the search for the optimum solution, calculate the costs and benefits of participating in the hidden economy or refraining from doing so. Taking the ‘socially optimum level’ of tax evasion, the study covers the various types of government measures that can be taken against the hidden economy, the effects of them, and the scope for an optimum government policy to combat the hidden economy.

"Gene-fouled or gene-improved?" – Media framing of GM crops and food in Hungary

This paper presents results from a research which analyzed the reporting on genetically modified crops and food in the Hungarian tabloids and political papers with the highest circulation from 1 May 2007 to 31 October 2009. Both quantitative and qualitative media analysis was conducted. It was found that in contrast to some Western countries the issue had low salience in the investigated period; it featured especially marginally in the tabloids. Two distinct valenced frames could be differentiated: a dominant ANTI-GM (Threat) frame – which was particularly frequent compared to what has been found for some other countries, and a minority PRO-GM (Advancement and Benefits) frame. Despite a range of similarities with what had been reported by previous research from some other countries, argumentation on the GMO topic in the Hungarian press had several distinct characteristics, one of which was the relative prominence of economic arguments against the technology.

Kockázatok a mezőgazdaságban (Risks in agriculture)

A szerző cikkében a mezőgazdaságban megjelenő kockázatokkal foglalkozik. Vizsgálja, hogy mely tényezők okoznak kockázatot e területen, illetve érinti a kockázat legsúlyosabb következményét, az éhínséget, csökkentésének módjait, valamint a mezőgazdasági biztosítás kérdését. ________ The paper analyzes the different types of risks appearing in agriculture. The paper aims to analyze both the factors that cause the risks and the most serious consequence of these risks, namely famine. The essay also tries to evaluate to possible ways risk can be decreased, especially with the focus on agricultural insurance.

Tudásmenedzsment: problémák és veszélyek (Knowledge management: problems and dangers)

A tudásmenedzsment több terület metszeteként is értelmezhető új megközelítése a vállalatok vezetésének. A megközelítés napjaink slágertémája, ugyanakkor egy olyan gyógyszerre hasonlíthatjuk, melyek kockázatait és mellékhatásait még nem ismerjük. Ebben a cikkben néhány nehézségre, problémára kívánom a figyelmet ráirányítani. ______ Knowledge management is interpretable as the intersection of different management research areas. KM is one of the most popular topic of management literature and practice, but it is similar to a medicine, which is effective, although its risks and side-effects are not known. In this paper I present some problems and difficulties in this area.

Social acceptance of renewable energy: Some examples from Europe and Developing Africa

Current energy systems are in most instances not fully working sustainably. The provision and use of energy only consider limited resources, risk potential or financial constraints on a limited scale. Furthermore, the knowledge and benefits are only available for a minor group of the population or are outright neglected. The availability of different resources for energy purposes determines economic development, as well as the status of the society and the environment. The access to energy grids has an impact on socio-economic living standards of communities. This not fully developed system is causing climate change with all its related outcomes. This investigation takes into consideration different views on renewable energy systems — such as international discussions about biomass use for energy production, “fuel versus food”, biogas use — and attempts to compare major prospects of social acceptance of renewable energy in Europe and Africa. Can all obstacles to the use of renewable energy be so profound that the overall strategy of reducing anthropogenic causes of climate change be seriously affected?

Social acceptance of renewable energy: Some examples from Europe and Developing Africa

Current energy systems are in most instances not fully working sustainably. The provision and use of energy only consider limited resources, risk potential or financial constraints on a limited scale. Furthermore, the knowledge and benefits are only available for a minor group of the population or are outright neglected. The availability of different resources for energy purposes determines economic development, as well as the status of the society and the environment. The access to energy grids has an impact on socio-economic living standards of communities. This not fully developed system is causing climate change with all its related outcomes. This investigation takes into consideration different views on renewable energy systems — such as international discussions about biomass use for energy production, “fuel versus food”, biogas use — and attempts to compare major prospects of social acceptance of renewable energy in Europe and Africa. Can all obstacles to the use of renewable energy be so profound that the overall strategy of reducing anthropogenic causes of climate change be seriously affected?

The state of emergency management 2000: The process of emergency management professionalization in the United States and Florida

This dissertation analyzes the current status of emergency management professionalization in the United States and Florida using a qualitative case study. I investigate the efforts of various organizations at the national and state levels in the private and public sectors to organize emergency management as a profession. I conceptualize emergency management professionalization as occurring in two phases: the indirect institutionalization of the occupation of emergency management and the formal advancement toward an emergency management profession. The legislative, organizational, and procedural developments that occurred between approximately 1900 and the late 1970s became the indirect institutionalization of the occupation of emergency management. Over time, as our society developed and became increasingly complex, more disasters affect the security of the population. In order to adapt to increasing risks and vulnerabilities the emergency management system emerged and with it the necessary elements upon which a future profession could be established providing the basis for the formal advancement toward an emergency management profession. ^ During approximately the last twenty years, the formal advancement toward an emergency management profession has encompassed two primary strategies—certification and accreditation—motivated by the objective to organize a profession. Certification applies to individual emergency managers and includes all training and education. Accreditation of state and local emergency management agencies is reached by complying to a minimum level of proficiency with established standards of performance. Certification and accreditation are the mechanisms used to create an emergency management profession and thus act as axes around which the field of emergency management is organizing. ^ The purpose of this research is to provide a frame of reference for whether or not the field of emergency management is a profession. Based on sociology of professions literature, emergency management can be considered to be professionalizing. The current emergency management professionalization efforts may or may not be sufficient to achieve the ultimate goal of becoming a legitimate profession based on legal and public support for the exclusive right to perform emergency management tasks (monopoly) as well as self-regulation of those tasks (autonomy). ^

The knowledge and promotion of exercise to older adults with type 2 diabetes by dietitian diabetes educators

The extent to which Registered Dietitians (RD) promote exercise as part of diabetes self-management education to older diabetic adults has not been established. This study explored the exercise-related knowledge, design, and content of educational programs among RDs who were Certified Diabetes Educators (CDEs) and non-CDEs. The Exercise Teaching Questionnaire was completed by 94 CDEs and 73 non-CDEs in Florida, California, and Texas. ^ CDEs had significantly (p < 0.001) higher mean Knowledge, Design, and Content scores (11.8 ± 1.1, 33.5 ± 9.4, 26.9 ± 4.8, respectively) than non-CDEs (11.1 ± 1.6, 29.2 ± 11.1, 22.4 ± 7.4, respectively). However, Knowledge means for both CDEs and non-CDEs were above the 85 percentile. Design and content scale responses showed that while dietitians provided basic information about safety and benefits related to exercise, they frequently reported “never” or only “sometimes” making exercise recommendations. ^ Although these results suggest that RDs are knowledgeable about exercise for older adults with Type 2 diabetes, greater importance should be made on training RDs to promote exercise, perhaps with an emphasis on a comprehensive team approach. ^

Framing infectious diseases and U.S. public opinion

The United States has been increasingly concerned with the transnational threat posed by infectious diseases. Effective policy implementation to contain the spread of these diseases requires active engagement and support of the American public. To influence American public opinion and enlist support for related domestic and foreign policies, both domestic agencies and international organizations have framed infectious diseases as security threats, human rights disasters, economic risks, and as medical dangers. This study investigates whether American attitudes and opinions about infectious diseases are influenced by how the issue is framed. It also asks which issue frame has been most influential in shaping public opinion about global infectious diseases when people are exposed to multiple frames. The impact of media frames on public perception of infectious diseases is examined through content analysis of newspaper reports. Stories on SARS, avian flu, and HIV/AIDS were sampled from coverage in The New York Times and The Washington Post between 1999 and 2007. Surveys of public opinion on infectious diseases in the same time period were also drawn from databases like Health Poll Search and iPoll. Statistical analysis tests the relationship between media framing of diseases and changes in public opinion. Results indicate that no one frame was persuasive across all diseases. The economic frame had a significant effect on public opinion about SARS, as did the biomedical frame in the case of avian flu. Both the security and human rights frames affected opinion and increased public support for policies intended to prevent or treat HIV/AIDS. The findings also address the debate on the role and importance of domestic public opinion as a factor in domestic and foreign policy decisions of governments in an increasingly interconnected world. The public is able to make reasonable evaluations of the frames and the domestic and foreign policy issues emphasized in the frames.

Social and environmental regulation of signal plasticity and signal reliability in the electric fish Brachyhypopomus gauderio

The balance between the costs and benefits of conspicuous signals ensures that the expression of those signals is related to the quality of the bearer. Plastic signals could enable males to maximize conspicuous traits to impress mates and competitors, but reduce the expression of those traits to minimize signaling costs, potentially compromising the information conveyed by the signals. ^ I investigated the effect of signal enhancement on the information coded by the biphasic electric signal pulse of the gymnotiform fish Brachyhypopomus gauderio. Increases in population density drive males to enhance the amplitude of their signals. I found that signal amplitude enhancement improves the information about the signaler's size. Furthermore, I found that the elongation of the signal's second phase conveys information about androgen levels in both sexes, gonad size in males and estrogen levels in females. Androgens link the duration of the signal's second phase to other androgen-mediated traits making the signal an honest indicator of reproductive state and aggressive motivation. ^ Signal amplitude enhancement facilitates the assessment of the signaler's resource holding potential, important for male-male interactions, while signal duration provides information about aggressive motivation to same-sex competitors and reproductive state to the opposite sex. Moreover, I found that female signals also change in accordance to the social environment. Females also increase the amplitude of their signal when population density increases and elongate the duration of their signal's second phase when the sex ratio becomes female-biased. Indicating that some degree of sexual selection operates in females. ^ I studied whether male B. gauderio use signal plasticity to reduce the cost of reproductive signaling when energy is limited. Surprisingly, I found that food limitation promotes the investment in reproduction manifested as signal enhancement and elevated androgen levels. The short lifespan and single breeding season of B. gauderio diminishes the advantage of energy savings and gives priority to sustaining reproduction. I conclude that the electric signal of B. gauderio provides reliable information about the signaler, the quality of this information is reinforced rather than degraded with signal enhancement.^

Risk -taking propensity of faculty, administrators, and academic department heads at a large, urban, multi -campus community college

This research was undertaken to explore dimensions of the risk construct, identify factors related to risk-taking in education, and study risk propensity among employees at a community college. Risk-taking propensity (RTP) was measured by the 12-item BCDQ, which consisted of personal and professional risk-related situations balanced for the money, reputation, and satisfaction dimensions of the risk construct. Scoring ranged from 1.00 (most cautious) to 6.00 (most risky).^ Surveys including the BCDQ and seven demographic questions relating to age, gender, professional status, length of service, academic discipline, highest degree, and campus location were sent to faculty, administrators, and academic department heads. A total of 325 surveys were returned, resulting in a 66.7% response rate. Subjects were relatively homogeneous for age, length of service, and highest degree.^ Subjects were also homogeneous for risk-taking propensity: no substantive differences in RTP scores were noted within and among demographic groups, with the possible exception of academic discipline. The mean RTP score for all subjects was 3.77, for faculty was 3.76, for administrators was 3.83, and for department heads was 3.64.^ The relationship between propensity to take personal risks and propensity to take professional risks was tested by computing Pearson r correlation coefficients. The relationships for the total sample, faculty, and administrator groups were statistically significant, but of limited practical significance. Subjects were placed into risk categories by dividing the response scale into thirds. A 3 x 3 factorial ANOVA revealed no interaction effects between professional status and risk category with regard to RTP score. A discriminant analysis showed that a seven-factor model was not effective in predicting risk category.^ The homogeneity of the study sample and the effect of a risk-encouraging environment were discussed in the context of the community college. Since very little data on risk-taking in education is available, risk propensity data from this study could serve as a basis for comparison to future research. Results could be used by institutions to plan professional development activities, designed to increase risk-taking and encourage active acceptance of change. ^

The Maintenance and Consequences of a Low Quality Diet in Poecilia Latipinna

The adaptive significance of herbivory in nature is not well understood. In order to document the conditions that select for an herbivorous feeding habit, we must first understand how such a diet is maintained, and the consequences of doing so. A few studies have begun to reveal mechanisms of maintaining herbivory (i.e. selective feeding, diet mixing, etc.) and the associated life history responses (i.e. growth, reproduction, etc.) in terrestrial and marine systems; however, studies of this kind are underrepresented in the freshwater literature. In this study, I use the sailfin molly (Poecilia latipinna) as a model organism to examine diet selectivity and the effects of an herbivorous diet on growth. To study food selectivity, sailfin mollies were fed either disturbed or intact periphyton mats from one of three localities within the Everglades (Water Conservation Area 3B, the Gap, or Chekika). Mats are structured with palatable algal species (i.e. greens and diatoms) comprising the inner components of the mat, and unpalatable species (i.e. cyanobacteria) comprising the outer edges. Fish gut contents were analyzed for each treatment and periphyton locality. Results suggest that when provided access to the inner components of the mats, fish preferentially eat more palatable algae. In a second experiment, effects of an herbivorous diet were examined using neonate sailfin mollies. Fish were fed either commercial food flakes, commercial algae flakes, or ground periphyton, and growth rate was measured weekly, from birth to 21 days. Fish fed the commercial diets grew at a faster rate and reached a larger final size than those fed periphyton. These results suggest that a periphyton diet is limited in nutritional elements compared to a pure algae diet and herbivorous organisms feeding upon it may experience negative effects on growth. By studying the costs and benefits of herbivory in a freshwater system, this paper contributes to a larger study of the question of why herbivory would evolve as an adaptation when seemingly inefficient compared to carnivorous and omnivorous diets.