944 resultados para Hazard-Based Models
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The ichthyoses are a heterogeneous group of monogenetically inherited disorders of cornification, and characterized clinically by scaling or hyperkeratosis. Historically, they were classified by clinical features and inheritance patterns. As a result of the recent molecular biological revolution, the ichthyoses are now recognized as comprising many diverse entities. Importantly, identical phenotypes may be caused by mutations in multiple genes, while mutations in a single gene may result in multiple and sometimes widely divergent phenotypes. The considerable complexity of this clinically and genetically heterogeneous group of disorders has prompted the need for a new classification. A classification that uses terminology based on a combination of the clinical and molecular genetic details, for instance loricrin keratoderma, is desirable. In this chapter we will use in principle the nosology adopted recently by an international group of experts at the First Ichthyosis Consensus Conference in Sorèz, France.
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PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether tumor location proximal or distal to the splenic flexure is associated with distinct molecular patterns and can predict clinical outcome in a homogeneous group of patients with Dukes B (T3-T4, N0, M0) colorectal cancer. It has been hypothesized that proximal and distal colorectal cancer may arise through different pathogenetic mechanisms. Although p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations occur frequently in distal tumors, another form of genomic instability associated with defective DNA mismatch repair has been predominantly identified in the proximal colon. To date, however, the clinical usefulness of these molecular characteristics remains unproven. METHODS: A total of 126 patients with a lymph node-negative sporadic colon or rectum adenocarcinoma were prospectively assessed with the endpoint of death by cancer. No patient received either radiotherapy or chemotherapy. p53 protein was studied by immunohistochemistry using DO-7 monoclonal antibody, and p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations were detected by single strand conformation polymorphism assay. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 67 months, the overall five-year survival was 70 percent. Nuclear p53 staining was found in 57 tumors (47 percent), and was more frequent in distal than in proximal tumors (55 vs. 21 percent; chi-squared test, P < 0.001). For the whole group, p53 protein expression correlated with poor survival in univariate and multivariate analysis (log-rank test, P = 0.01; hazard ratio = 2.16; 95 percent confidence interval = 1.12-4.11, P = 0.02). Distal colon tumors and rectal tumors exhibited similar molecular patterns and showed no difference in clinical outcome. In comparison with distal colorectal cancer, proximal tumors were found to be statistically significantly different on the following factors: mucinous content (P = 0.008), degree of histologic differentiation (P = 0.012), p53 protein expression, and gene mutation (P = 0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Finally, patients with proximal tumors had a marginally better survival than those with distal colon or rectal cancers (log-rank test, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: In this series of Dukes B colorectal cancers, p53 protein expression was an independent factor for survival, which also correlated with tumor location. Eighty-six percent of p53-positive tumors were located in the distal colon and rectum. Distal colon and rectum tumors had similar molecular and clinical characteristics. In contrast, proximal neoplasms seem to represent a distinct entity, with specific histopathologic characteristics, molecular patterns, and clinical outcome. Location of the neoplasm in reference to the splenic flexure should be considered before group stratification in future trials of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with Dukes B tumors.
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On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.
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The objective of this work is to present a multitechnique approach to define the geometry, the kinematics, and the failure mechanism of a retrogressive large landslide (upper part of the La Valette landslide, South French Alps) by the combination of airborne and terrestrial laser scanning data and ground-based seismic tomography data. The advantage of combining different methods is to constrain the geometrical and failure mechanism models by integrating different sources of information. Because of an important point density at the ground surface (4. 1 points m?2), a small laser footprint (0.09 m) and an accurate three-dimensional positioning (0.07 m), airborne laser scanning data are adapted as a source of information to analyze morphological structures at the surface. Seismic tomography surveys (P-wave and S-wave velocities) may highlight the presence of low-seismic-velocity zones that characterize the presence of dense fracture networks at the subsurface. The surface displacements measured from the terrestrial laser scanning data over a period of 2 years (May 2008?May 2010) allow one to quantify the landslide activity at the direct vicinity of the identified discontinuities. An important subsidence of the crown area with an average subsidence rate of 3.07 m?year?1 is determined. The displacement directions indicate that the retrogression is controlled structurally by the preexisting discontinuities. A conceptual structural model is proposed to explain the failure mechanism and the retrogressive evolution of the main scarp. Uphill, the crown area is affected by planar sliding included in a deeper wedge failure system constrained by two preexisting fractures. Downhill, the landslide body acts as a buttress for the upper part. Consequently, the progression of the landslide body downhill allows the development of dip-slope failures, and coherent blocks start sliding along planar discontinuities. The volume of the failed mass in the crown area is estimated at 500,000 m3 with the sloping local base level method.
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The Cinque Torri group (Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy) is an articulated system of unstable carbonatic rock monoliths located in a very important tourism area and therefore characterized by a significant risk. The instability phenomena involved represent an example of lateral spreading developed over a larger deep seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) area. After the recent fall of a monolith of more than 10 000 m3, a scientific study was initiated to monitor the more unstable sectors and to characterize the past movements as a fundamental tool for predicting future movements and hazard assessment. To achieve greater insight on the ongoing lateral spreading process, a method for a quantitative analysis of rotational movements associated with the lateral spreading has been developed, applied and validated. The method is based on: i) detailed geometrical characterization of the area by means of laser scanner techniques; ii) recognition of the discontinuity sets and definition of a reference frame for each set, iii) correlation between the obtained reference frames related to a specific sector and a stable external reference frame, and iv) determination of the 3D rotations in terms of Euler angles to describe the present settlement of the Cinque Torri system with respect to the surrounding stable areas. In this way, significant information on the processes involved in the fragmentation and spreading of a former dolomitic plateau into different rock cliffs has been gained. The method is suitable to be applied to similar case studies.
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La Facultat de Ciències de la Salut i de la Vida ha utilitzat des de 2004 la metodologia d'aprenentatge basat en problemes (en endavant ABP) com a mètode docent en els seus estudis de Biologia. En aquest període hem après algunes de les claus de l'aplicació del mètode en els nostres estudis. En primer lloc, cal disposar d'elements formatius que afavoreixin la formació dels tutors que participin en el projecte. Per assolir aquest objectiu hem dissenyat un portal on els nostres professors poden disposar de materials útils per a la seva activitat, així com de documents que permetin entendre millor el que suposa l'ABP. En segon lloc, el projecte tenia l'objectiu de dissenyar i avaluar activitats que permetessin integrar les pràctiques de laboratori en la lògica de la resolució de problemes pròpia de l'ABP. En aquest sentit vam dissenyar dues activitats en el tercer curs de la llicenciatura que anomenaren aprenentatge basat en el laboratori (ABL). Per aquest motiu es van dissenyar problemes que tinguessin una primera part de resolució a l'aula en grup de tutoria i una segona que obligués els estudiants a realitzar experiments de laboratori dirigits a entendre i resoldre les qüestions plantejades al grup de tutoria. L'ABL-1 fou un projecte de biologia cel·lular i destinat a aprofundir en els mecanismes implicats en els fenòmens de diferenciació dels miòcits. L'ABL-2 era un projecte conjunt dels professors de Fisiologia vegetal, Bioestadística i Microbiologia. En aquest cas es desitjava que els estudiants plantegessin la resolució a un problema que suposava la manipulació genètica de cèl·lules vegetals per fer possible que produïssin una substància específica, l'escopolamina. Finalment els estudiants havien d'escriure un article original com a projecte final de cada ABL. Els resultats dels dos anys d'experimentació han esta altament satisfactoris, d'acord amb les enquestes completades per alumnes i professors.
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Habitat destruction and fragmentation are known to strongly affect dispersal by altering the quality of the environment between populations. As a consequence, lower landscape connectivity is expected to enhance extinction risks through a decrease in gene flow and the resulting negative effects of genetic drift, accumulation of deleterious mutations and inbreeding depression. Such phenomena are particularly harmful for amphibian species, characterized by disjunct breeding habitats. The dispersal behaviour of amphibians being poorly understood, it is crucial to develop new tools, allowing us to determine the influence of landscape connectivity on the persistence of populations. In this study, we developed a new landscape genetics approach that aims at identifying land-uses affecting genetic differentiation, without a priori assumptions about associated ecological costs. We surveyed genetic variation at seven microsatellite loci for 19 Alpine newt (Mesotriton alpestris) populations in western Switzerland. Using strips of varying widths that define a dispersal corridor between pairs of populations, we were able to identify land-uses that act as dispersal barriers (i.e. urban areas) and corridors (i.e. forests). Our results suggest that habitat destruction and landscape fragmentation might in the near future affect common species such as M. alpestris. In addition, by identifying relevant landscape variables influencing population structure without unrealistic assumptions about dispersal, our method offers a simple and flexible tool of investigation as an alternative to least-cost models and other approaches.
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The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.
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This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described
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Ultrasound segmentation is a challenging problem due to the inherent speckle and some artifacts like shadows, attenuation and signal dropout. Existing methods need to include strong priors like shape priors or analytical intensity models to succeed in the segmentation. However, such priors tend to limit these methods to a specific target or imaging settings, and they are not always applicable to pathological cases. This work introduces a semi-supervised segmentation framework for ultrasound imaging that alleviates the limitation of fully automatic segmentation, that is, it is applicable to any kind of target and imaging settings. Our methodology uses a graph of image patches to represent the ultrasound image and user-assisted initialization with labels, which acts as soft priors. The segmentation problem is formulated as a continuous minimum cut problem and solved with an efficient optimization algorithm. We validate our segmentation framework on clinical ultrasound imaging (prostate, fetus, and tumors of the liver and eye). We obtain high similarity agreement with the ground truth provided by medical expert delineations in all applications (94% DICE values in average) and the proposed algorithm performs favorably with the literature.
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Aspergillus lentulus, an Aspergillus fumigatus sibling species, is increasingly reported in corticosteroid-treated patients. Its clinical significance is unknown, but the fact that A. lentulus shows reduced antifungal susceptibility, mainly to voriconazole, is of serious concern. Heterologous expression of cyp51A from A. fumigatus and A. lentulus was performed in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to assess differences in the interaction of Cyp51A with the azole drugs. The absence of endogenous ERG11 was efficiently complemented in S. cerevisiae by the expression of either Aspergillus cyp51A allele. There was a marked difference between azole minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the clones expressing each Aspergillus spp. cyp51A. Saccharomyces cerevisiae clones expressing A. lentulus alleles showed higher MICs to all of the azoles tested, supporting the hypothesis that the intrinsic azole resistance of A. lentulus could be associated with Cyp51A. Homology models of A. fumigatus and A. lentulus Cyp51A protein based on the crystal structure of Cyp51p from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in complex with fluconazole were almost identical owing to their mutual high sequence identity. Molecular dynamics (MD) was applied to both three-dimensional protein models to refine the homology modelling and to explore possible differences in the Cyp51A-voriconazole interaction. After 20ns of MD modelling, some critical differences were observed in the putative closed form adopted by the protein upon voriconazole binding. A closer study of the A. fumigatus and A. lentulus voriconazole putative binding site in Cyp51A suggested that some major differences in the protein's BC loop could differentially affect the lock-up of voriconazole, which in turn could correlate with their different azole susceptibility profiles.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of nonresponse to a self-report study of patients with orthopedic trauma hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation between November 15, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The role of biopsychosocial complexity, assessed using the INTERMED, was of particular interest. DESIGN: Cohort study. Questionnaires with quality of life, sociodemographic, and job-related questions were given to patients at hospitalization and 1 year after discharge. Sociodemographic data, biopsychosocial complexity, and presence of comorbidity were available at hospitalization (baseline) for all eligible patients. Logistic regression models were used to test a number of baseline variables as potential predictors of nonresponse to the questionnaires at each of the 2 time points. SETTING: Rehabilitation clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N=990) hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation over a period of 2 years. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Nonresponse to the questionnaires was the binary dependent variable. RESULTS: Patients with high biopsychosocial complexity, foreign native language, or low educational level were less likely to respond at both time points. Younger patients were less likely to respond at 1 year. Those living in a stable partnership were less likely than singles to respond at hospitalization. Sex, psychiatric, and somatic comorbidity and alcoholism were never associated with nonresponse. CONCLUSIONS: We stress the importance of assessing biopsychosocial complexity to predict nonresponse. Furthermore, the factors we found to be predictive of nonresponse are also known to influence treatment outcome and vocational rehabilitation. Therefore, it is important to increase the response rate of the groups of concern in order to reduce selection bias in epidemiologic investigations.
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The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35-55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES.
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The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope
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The Institute of Public Health in Ireland publishes estimates and forecasts of the prevalence of chronic health conditions for national and subnational areas on the island of Ireland. The estimates and forecasts are based on statistical models of nationally representative health survey data that estimate the risk of having the condition. The risks of having the condition are then applied to population estimates and projections. The purpose of this document is to: 1. Compare IPH prevalence estimates with prevalence estimates from other health surveys on the island. 2. Highlight the methodological issues in comparing prevalence estimates from different surveys.