Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

The nutritional and clinical significance of lipid rafts

Purpose of review Lipid rafts are potentially modifiable by diet, particularly (but not exclusively) by dietary fatty acids. This review examines the potential for dietary modification of raft structure and function in the immune system, brain and retinal tissue, the gut, and in cancer cells. Recent findings In-vitro and ex-vivo studies suggest that dietary n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) may exert immunosuppressive and anticancer effects through changes in lipid raft organization. In addition, gangliosides and cholesterol may modulate lipid raft organization in a number of tissues, and recent work has highlighted sphingolipids in membrane microdomains as potential targets for inhibition of tumor growth. The roles of fatty acids and gangliosides, especially in relation to lipid rafts, in cognitive development, age-related cognitive decline, psychiatric disorders, and Alzheimer’s disease are poorly understood and require further investigation. The roles of lipid rafts in cancer, in microbial pathogenesis, and in insulin resistance are starting to emerge, and indicate compelling evidence for the growing importance of membrane microdomains in health and disease. Summary In-vitro and animal studies show that n-3 PUFAs, cholesterol, and gangliosides modulate the structure and composition of lipid rafts, potentially influencing a wide range of biological processes, including immune function, neuronal signaling, cancer cell growth, entry of pathogens through the gut barrier, and insulin resistance in metabolic disorders. The physiological, clinical, and nutritional relevance of these observations remains to be determined.

Amount of substance and the Mole

The International System of Units, the SI, is built upon seven base quantities and seven base units, as summarized in the table below. Although most of these are familiar to all scientists, the quantity “amount of substance” and its unit “mole” are less familiar and are mainly used by chemists.1 In the chemistry community, the unit “mole” is familiar, but the name of the corresponding quantity “amount of substance” is not so familiar, and the concept is still a source of difficulty for many students. This article reviews and clarifies these two concepts2 and discusses the definition of the unit “mole” and its possible revision.

Data assimilation for marine monitoring and prediction: The MERCATOR operational assimilation systems and the MERSEA developments

During the past 15 years, a number of initiatives have been undertaken at national level to develop ocean forecasting systems operating at regional and/or global scales. The co-ordination between these efforts has been organized internationally through the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). The French MERCATOR project is one of the leading participants in GODAE. The MERCATOR systems routinely assimilate a variety of observations such as multi-satellite altimeter data, sea-surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles, focusing on high-resolution scales of the ocean dynamics. The assimilation strategy in MERCATOR is based on a hierarchy of methods of increasing sophistication including optimal interpolation, Kalman filtering and variational methods, which are progressively deployed through the Syst`eme d’Assimilation MERCATOR (SAM) series. SAM-1 is based on a reduced-order optimal interpolation which can be operated using ‘altimetry-only’ or ‘multi-data’ set-ups; it relies on the concept of separability, assuming that the correlations can be separated into a product of horizontal and vertical contributions. The second release, SAM-2, is being developed to include new features from the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, such as three-dimensional, multivariate error modes and adaptivity schemes. The third one, SAM-3, considers variational methods such as the incremental four-dimensional variational algorithm. Most operational forecasting systems evaluated during GODAE are based on least-squares statistical estimation assuming Gaussian errors. In the framework of the EU MERSEA (Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area) project, research is being conducted to prepare the next-generation operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems. The research effort will explore nonlinear assimilation formulations to overcome limitations of the current systems. This paper provides an overview of the developments conducted in MERSEA with the SEEK filter, the Ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance re-sampling filter.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Like products, animal welfare and the WTO

Consumers are increasingly seeking credence characteristics in the goods they buy and some production processes such as organic or animal welfare friendly systems can be successfully embedded in them. However when ethical considerations are involved, voluntary labeling may not be enough and in such cases a political response emerges such as a ban on unacceptable production as well as the consumption of the 'like products' in question, to confirm the credibility of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Extracellular disulfide exchange and the regulation of cellular function

An emerging concept is that disulfide bonds can act as a dynamic scaffold to present mature proteins in different conformational and functional states on the cell surface. Two examples are the conversion of the receptor, integrin a alpha(IIb)beta(3), from a low affinity to a high affinity state, and the interaction of CD4 receptor with the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein gp120 to promote virus-cell fusion. In both of these cases there is a remodeling of the protein disulfide bonding pattern. The formation and rearrangement of disulfide bonds is modulated by a family of enzymes known as the thiol isomerases, which include protein disulfide isomerase (PDI), ERp5, ERp57, and ERp72. While these enzymes were reported originally to be restricted in location to the endoplasmic reticulum, in some cells thiol isomerases are found on the cell surface. This may indicate a wider role for these enzymes in cell function. In platelets it has been shown that reagents that react with cell surface sulfhydryl groups are capable of blocking a number of functional responses, including integrin-mediated aggregation, adhesion, and granule secretion. Furthermore, the use of function blocking antibodies to either PDI or ERp5 causes inhibition of these functional responses. This review summarizes current knowledge of the extracellular regulation of disulfide exchange and the implications of this in the regulation of cell function.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Amount of substance and the mole

The unit mole is very familiar amongst both chemists and physicists, but the name of the corresponding quantity 'amount of substance' is not so familiar and the concept is still a source of difficulty for many students. This paper reviews and clarifies these concepts and also discusses the definition of the unit mole, and its possible revision.

The practice of sustainable facilities management: Design sentiments and the knowledge chasm

The construction industry with its nature of project delivery is very fragmented in terms of the various processes that encompass design, construction, facilities and assets management. Facilities managers are in the forefront of delivering sustainable assets management and hence further the venture for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. A questionnaire survey was conducted to establish perceptions, level of commitment and knowledge chasm in practising sustainable facilities management (FM). This has significant implications for sustainable design management, especially in a fragmented industry. The majority of questionnaire respondents indicated the importance of sustainability for their organization. Many of them stated that they reported on sustainability as part of their organization annual reporting with energy efficiency, recycling and waste reduction as the main concern for them. The overwhelming barrier for implementing sound, sustainable FM is the lack of consensual understanding and focus of individuals and organizations about sustainability. There is a knowledge chasm regarding practical information on delivering sustainable FM. Sustainability information asymmetry in design, construction and FM processes render any sustainable design as a sentiment and mere design aspiration. Skills and training provision, traditionally offered separately to designers and facilities managers, needs to be re-evaluated. Sustainability education and training should be developed to provide effective structures and processes to apply sustainability throughout the construction and FM industries coherently and as common practice.

Lean construction: Arenas of enactment, models of diffusion and the meaning of 'leanness'

The existing literature on lean construction is overwhelmingly prescriptive with little recognition of the social and politicised nature of the diffusion process. The prevailing production-engineering perspective too often assumes that organizations are unitary entities where all parties strive for the common goal of 'improved performance'. An alternative perspective is developed that considers the diffusion of lean construction across contested pluralistic arenas. Different actors mobilize different storylines to suit their own localized political agendas. Multiple storylines of lean construction continuously compete for attention with other management fashions. The conceptualization and enactment of lean construction therefore differs across contexts, often taking on different manifestations from those envisaged. However, such localized enactments of lean construction are patterned and conditioned by pre-existing social and economic structures over which individual managers have limited influence. Taking a broader view, 'leanness' can be conceptualized in terms of a quest for structural flexibility involving restructuring, downsizing and outsourcing. From this perspective, the UK construction industry can be seen to have embarked upon leaner ways of working in the mid-1970s, long before the terminology of lean thinking came into vogue. Semi-structured interviews with construction sector policy-makers provide empirical support for the view that lean construction is a multifaceted concept that defies universal definition.

Informal communication networks and the diffusion of innovations in UK construction projects: A research design

The UK industry has been criticised for being slow to adopt construction process innovations. Research shows that the idiosyncrasies of participants, their roles in the system and the contextual differences between sections of the industry make this a highly complex problem. There is considerable evidence that informal social networks play a key role in diffusion of innovations. The aim is to identify informal communication networks of project participants and the role these play in the diffusion of construction innovations. The characteristics of this network will be analysed in order to understand how they can be used to accelerate innovation diffusion within and between projects. Social Network Analysis is used to determine informal communication routes. Control and experiment case study projects are used within two different organizations. This allows informal communication routes concerning innovations to be mapped, whilst testing if the informal routes can facilitate diffusion. Analysis will focus upon understanding the combination of informal strong and weak ties, and how these impede or facilitate the diffusion of the innovation. Initial work suggests the presence of an informal communication network. Actors within this informal network, and the organization's management are unaware of its' existence and their informal roles within it. Thus, the network remains an untapped medium regarding innovation diffusion. It is proposed that successful innovation diffusion is dependent upon understanding informal strong and weak ties, at project, organization and industry level.

Fatty acids and the immune system: from basic science to clinical applications

Over the last 25 years, the effects of fatty acids on the immune system have been characterized using in vitro, animal and human studies. Advances in fatty acid biochemistry and molecular techniques have recently suggested new mechanisms by which fatty acids could potentially modify immune responses, including modification of the organization of cellular lipids and interaction with nuclear receptors. Possibilities for the clinical applications of n-3 PUFA are now developing. The present review focuses on the hypothesis that the anti-inflammatory properties of n-3 PUFA in the arterial wall may contribute to the protective effects of n-3 PUFA in CVD, as suggested by epidemiological and secondary prevention studies. Studies are just beginning to show that dietary n-3 PUFA can be incorporated into plaque lipid in human subjects, where they may influence the morphology and stability of the atherosclerotic lesion.