Standard cost model: three different paths and their common problems

Red tape is not desirable as it impedes business growth. Relief from the administrative burdens that businesses face due to legislation can benefit the whole economy, especially at times of recession. However, recent governmental initiatives aimed at reducing administrative burdens have encountered some success, but also failures. This article compares three national initiatives - in the Netherlands, UK and Italy - aimed at cutting red tape by using the Standard Cost Model. Findings highlight the factors affecting the outcomes of measurement and reduction plans and ways to improve the Standard Cost Model methodology.

Economic growth: a panacea for child labour?

In this paper, we test whether economic growth decreases child labour by bringing together data from the National Sample Survey of India and state-level macro data to estimate a bivariate probit model of schooling and labour. Our results lead us to conclude that contrary to popular wisdom, growth actually increases rather than decreases child labour because it increases the demand for child workers. The level of state NDP, village wages and household incomes are seen as the conduits through which growth influences the supply side of the child labour market.

The determinants of local population growth: a study of Oxfordshire in the nineteenth century

This paper presents a new econometric model for analysing population growth at the village and town level. It develops and applies a theory of the equilibrium distribution of population over space. The theory emphasises geographical fundamentals, such as rivers as transport corridors, and soil types that govern agricultural specialisation; also institutional factors such as town government, market charters and the concentration of land ownership. Nineteenth century Oxfordshire is used as a case study, but the method can also be applied at a multi-county and national level. The results show that the development of railways in nineteenth-century Oxfordshire accelerated a long-term shake-out in the market system, whereby rural markets disappeared and urban markets grew. This shake-out had significant implications for population growth at the local level.

John Lewis Partnership lessons in logical incrementalism and organic growth: a case study and interview with the Chairman, Mr Charlie Mayfield

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how strategy is developed and implemented in an organisation with an unusual ownership model. Partnerships are not a prevalent form of ownership but as this case demonstrates they can be extremely effective. Furthermore this case demonstrates how logical incrementalism can be used to implement major strategic decisions. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on company documentary evidence and a semi-structured interview with Mr Charlie Mayfield, Chairman of John Lewis Partnership. A chairman has a helicopter view of business whose perspectives are rarely captured by strategy researchers. This case study offers an insight into strategic thinking of a chairman and chief executive of a successful company. Research limitations/implications – The case study and interview offer a unique insight into the rationale behind strategic decisions within a successful partnership that has grown organically in a highly competitive retail market without high gearing. Originality/value – This case study sheds light on strategic moves within partnership. Furthermore, very few case studies offer insight into the thinking of a chief executive who has successfully managed a business in a turbulent environment.

Whistler mode wave growth and propagation in the prenoon magnetosphere

Pitch-angle scattering of electrons can limit the stably trapped particle flux in the magnetosphere and precipitate energetic electrons into the ionosphere. Whistler-mode waves generated by a temperature anisotropy can mediate this pitch-angle scattering over a wide range of radial distances and latitudes, but in order to correctly predict the phase-space diffusion, it is important to characterise the whistler-mode wave distributions that result from the instability. We use previously-published observations of number density, pitch-angle anisotropy and phase space density to model the plasma in the quiet pre-noon magnetosphere (defined as periods when AE<100nT). We investigate the global propagation and growth of whistler-mode waves by studying millions of growing ray paths and demonstrate that the wave distribution at any one location is a superposition of many waves at different points along their trajectories and with different histories. We show that for observed electron plasma properties, very few raypaths undergo magnetospheric reflection, most rays grow and decay within 30 degrees of the magnetic equator. The frequency range of the wave distribution at large L can be adequately described by the solutions of the local dispersion relation, but the range of wavenormal angle is different. The wave distribution is asymmetric with respect to the wavenormal angle. The numerical results suggest that it is important to determine the variation of magnetospheric parameters as a function of latitude, as well as local time and L-shell.

Nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability: part I: the two-layer model

A rigorous bound is derived which limits the finite-amplitude growth of arbitrary nonzonal disturbances to an unstable baroclinic zonal flow within the context of the two-layer model. The bound is valid for conservative (unforced) flow, as well as for forced-dissipative flow that when the dissipation is proportional to the potential vorticity. The method used to derive the bound relies on the existence of a nonlinear Liapunov (normed) stability theorem for subcritical flows, which is a finite-amplitude generalization of the Charney-Stern theorem. For the special case of the Philips model of baroclinic instability, and in the limit of infinitesimal initial nonzonal disturbance amplitude, an improved form of the bound is possible which states that the potential enstrophy of the nonzonal flow cannot exceed ϵβ2, where ϵ = (U − Ucrit)/Ucrit is the (relative) supereriticality. This upper bound turns out to be extremely similar to the maximum predicted by the weakly nonlinear theory. For unforced flow with ϵ < 1, the bound demonstrates that the nonzonal flow cannot contain all of the potential enstrophy in the system; hence in this range of initial supercriticality the total flow must remain, in a certain sense, “close” to a zonal state.

Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

Parameterization of contrails in the UK Met Office Climate Model

Persistent contrails are believed to currently have a relatively small but significant positive radiative forcing on climate. With air travel predicted to continue its rapid growth over the coming years, the contrail warming effect on climate is expected to increase. Nevertheless, there remains a high level of uncertainty in the current estimates of contrail radiative forcing. Contrail formation depends mostly on the aircraft flying in cold and moist enough air masses. Most studies to date have relied on simple parameterizations using averaged meteorological conditions. In this paper we take into account the short‐term variability in background cloudiness by developing an on‐line contrail parameterization for the UK Met Office climate model. With this parameterization, we estimate that for the air traffic of year 2002 the global mean annual linear contrail coverage was approximately 0.11%. Assuming a global mean contrail optical depth of 0.2 or smaller and assuming hexagonal ice crystals, the corresponding contrail radiative forcing was calculated to be less than 10 mW m−2 in all‐sky conditions. We find that the natural cloud masking effect on contrails may be significantly higher than previously believed. This new result is explained by the fact that contrails seem to preferentially form in cloudy conditions, which ameliorates their overall climate impact by approximately 40%.

Fibroblast growth factor 2 maintains the neurogenic capacity of embryonic neural progenitor cells in vitro but changes their neuronal subtype specification

Many in vitro systems used to examine multipotential neural progenitor cells (NPCs) rely on mitogens including fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2) for their continued expansion. However, FGF2 has also been shown to alter the expression of transcription factors (TFs) that determine cell fate. Here, we report that NPCs from the embryonic telencephalon grown without FGF2 retain many of their in vivo characteristics, making them a good model for investigating molecular mechanisms involved in cell fate specification and differentiation. However, exposure of cortical NPCs to FGF2 results in a profound change in the types of neurons generated, switching them from a glutamatergic to a GABAergic phenotype. This change closely correlates with the dramatic upregulation of TFs more characteristic of ventral telencephalic NPCs. In addition, exposure of cortical NPCs to FGF2 maintains their neurogenic potential in vitro, and NPCs spontaneously undergo differentiation following FGF2 withdrawal. These results highlight the importance of TFs in determining the types of neurons generated by NPCs in vitro. In addition, they show that FGF2, as well as acting as a mitogen, changes the developmental capabilities of NPCs. These findings have implications for the cell fate specification of in vitro-expanded NPCs and their ability to generate specific cell types for therapeutic applications. Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest is found at the end of this article.

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, 'control' and 'doubled CO2' life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.

Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation

Vintage-based vector autoregressive models of a single macroeconomic variable are shown to be a useful vehicle for obtaining forecasts of different maturities of future and past observations, including estimates of post-revision values. The forecasting performance of models which include information on annual revisions is superior to that of models which only include the first two data releases. However, the empirical results indicate that a model which reflects the seasonal nature of data releases more closely does not offer much improvement over an unrestricted vintage-based model which includes three rounds of annual revisions.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

A mathematical model of crystallization in an emulsion

A mathematical model incorporating many of the important processes at work in the crystallization of emulsions is presented. The model describes nucleation within the discontinuous domain of an emulsion, precipitation in the continuous domain, transport of monomers between the two domains, and formation and subsequent growth of crystals in both domains. The model is formulated as an autonomous system of nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations. The description of nucleation and precipitation is based upon the Becker–Döring equations of classical nucleation theory. A particular feature of the model is that the number of particles of all species present is explicitly conserved; this differs from work that employs Arrhenius descriptions of nucleation rate. Since the model includes many physical effects, it is analyzed in stages so that the role of each process may be understood. When precipitation occurs in the continuous domain, the concentration of monomers falls below the equilibrium concentration at the surface of the drops of the discontinuous domain. This leads to a transport of monomers from the drops into the continuous domain that are then incorporated into crystals and nuclei. Since the formation of crystals is irreversible and their subsequent growth inevitable, crystals forming in the continuous domain effectively act as a sink for monomers “sucking” monomers from the drops. In this case, numerical calculations are presented which are consistent with experimental observations. In the case in which critical crystal formation does not occur, the stationary solution is found and a linear stability analysis is performed. Bifurcation diagrams describing the loci of stationary solutions, which may be multiple, are numerically calculated.