Transport of Hydraulic Fracturing Water and Wastes in the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania

The development of the Marcellus Shale gas play in Pennsylvania and the northeastern United States has resulted in significant amounts of water and wastes transported by truck over roadways. This study used geographic information systems (GIS) to quantify truck travel distances via both the preferred routes (minimum distance while also favoring higher-order roads) as well as, where available, the likely actual distances for freshwater and waste transport between pertinent locations (e. g., gas wells, treatment facilities, freshwater sources). Results show that truck travel distances in the Susquehanna River Basin are greater than those used in prior life-cycle assessments of tight shale gas. When compared to likely actual transport distances, if policies were instituted to constrain truck travel to the closest destination and higher-order roads, transport mileage reductions of 40-80% could be realized. Using reasonable assumptions of current practices, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with water and waste hauling were calculated to be 70-157 MT CO2 eq per gas well. Furthermore, empty so-called backhaul trips, such as to freshwater withdrawal sites or returning from deep well injection sites, were found to increase emissions by an additional 30%, underscoring the importance of including return trips in the analysis. The results should inform future life-cycle assessments of tight shale gases in managed watersheds and help local and regional governments plan for impacts of transportation on local infrastructure. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

The origin of the European Medieval Warm Period"

Proxy records and results of a three dimensional climate model show that European summer temperatures roughly a millennium ago were comparable to those of the last 25 years of the 20th century, supporting the existence of a summer "Medieval Warm Period" in Europe. Those two relatively mild periods were separated by a rather cold era, often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Our modelling results suggest that the warm summer conditions during the early second millennium compared to the climate background state of the 13th–18th century are due to a large extent to the long term cooling induced by changes in land-use in Europe. During the last 200 years, the effect of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, which was partly levelled off by that of sulphate aerosols, has dominated the climate history over Europe in summer. This induces a clear warming during the last 200 years, allowing summer temperature during the last 25 years to reach back the values simulated for the early second millennium. Volcanic and solar forcing plays a weaker role in this comparison between the last 25 years of the 20th century and the early second millennium. Our hypothesis appears consistent with proxy records but modelling results have to be weighted against the existing uncertainties in the external forcing factors, in particular related to land-use changes, and against the uncertainty of the regional climate sensitivity. Evidence for winter is more equivocal than for summer. The forced response in the model displays a clear temperature maximum at the end of the 20th century. However, the uncertainties are too large to state that this period is the warmest of the past millennium in Europe during winter.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.

Kinetic characterization for pretreatment of timber varieties and switchgrass using diluted acid hydrolysis

In recent years, growing attention has been devoted to the use of lignocellulosic biomass as a feedstock to produce renewable carbohydrates as a source of energy products, including liquid alternatives to fossil fuels. The benefits of developing woody biomass to ethanol technology are to increase the long-term national energy security, reduce fossil energy consumption, lower greenhouse gas emissions, use renewable rather than depletable resources, and create local jobs. Currently, research is driven by the need to reduce the cost of biomass-ethanol production. One of the preferred methods is to thermochemically pretreat the biomass material and subsequently, enzymatically hydrolyze the pretreated material to fermentable sugars that can then be converted to ethanol using specialized microorganisms. The goals of pretreatment are to remove the hemicellulose fraction from other biomass components, reduce bioconversion time, enhance enzymatic conversion of the cellulose fraction, and, hopefully, obtain a higher ethanol yield. The primary goal of this research is to obtain kinetic detailed data for dilute acid hydrolysis for several timber species from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and switchgrass. These results will be used to identify optimum reaction conditions to maximize production of fermentable sugars and minimize production of non-fermentable byproducts. The structural carbohydrate analysis of the biomass species used in this project was performed using the procedure proposed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Subsequently, dilute acid-catalyzed hydrolysis of biomass, including aspen, basswood, balsam, red maple, and switchgrass, was studied at various temperatures, acid concentrations, and particle sizes in a 1-L well-mixed batch reactor (Parr Instruments, ii Model 4571). 25 g of biomass and 500 mL of diluted acid solution were added into a 1-L glass liner, and then put into the reactor. During the experiment, 5 mL samples were taken starting at 100°C at 3 min intervals until reaching the targeted temperature (160, 175, or 190°C), followed by 4 samples after achieving the desired temperature. The collected samples were then cooled in an ice bath immediately to stop the reaction. The cooled samples were filtered using 0.2 μm MILLIPORE membrane filter to remove suspended solids. The filtered samples were then analyzed using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) with a Bio-Rad Aminex HPX-87P column, and refractive index detection to measure monomeric and polymeric sugars plus degradation byproducts. A first order reaction model was assumed and the kinetic parameters such as activation energy and pre-exponential factor from Arrhenius equation were obtained from a match between the model and experimental data. The reaction temperature increases linearly after 40 minutes during experiments. Xylose and other sugars were formed from hemicellulose hydrolysis over this heat up period until a maximum concentration was reached at the time near when the targeted temperature was reached. However, negligible amount of xylose byproducts and small concentrations of other soluble sugars, such as mannose, arabinose, and galactose were detected during this initial heat up period. Very little cellulose hydrolysis yielding glucose was observed during the initial heat up period. On the other hand, later in the reaction during the constant temperature period xylose was degraded to furfural. Glucose production from cellulose was increased during this constant temperature period at later time points in the reaction. The kinetic coefficient governing the generation of xylose from hemicellulose and the generation of furfural from xylose presented a coherent dependence on both temperature and acid concentration. However, no effect was observed in the particle size. There were three types of biomass used in this project; hardwood (aspen, basswood, and red maple), softwood (balsam), and a herbaceous crop (switchgrass). The activation energies and the pre-exponential factors of the timber species and switchgrass were in a range of 49 - 180 kJ/mol and from 7.5x104 - 2.6x1020 min-1, respectively, for the xylose formation model. In addition, for xylose degradation, the activation energies and the preexponential factors ranged from 130 - 170 kJ/mol and from 6.8x1013 - 3.7x1017 min-1, respectively. The results compare favorably with the literature values given by Ranganathan et al, 1985. Overall, up to 92 % of the xylose was able to generate from the dilute acid hydrolysis in this project.

NICKEL-COBALT SOLID SOLUTION AND ITS APPLICATIONS AS CATALYSTS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE REFORMING OF METHANE

Global warming issue becomes more significant to human beings and other organisms on the earth. Among many greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) has the largest contribution to global warming. To find an effective way to utilize the greenhouse gas is urgent. It is the best way to convert CO2 to useful compounds. CO2 reforming of methane is an attractive process to convert CO2 and methane into synthesis gas (CO/H2), which can be used as a feedstock for gasoline, methanol, and other hydrocarbons. Nickel and cobalt were found to have good activity for CO2 reforming. However, they have a poor stability due to carbon deposition. This research developed efficient Ni-Co solid solution catalysts with excellent activities and high stability for CO2 reforming of methane. First, the structure of binary oxide solid solution of nickel and cobalt was investigated. It was found that while the calcination of Ni(NO3)2 and Co(NO3)2 mixture with 1:1 molar ratio at a high temperature above 800 oC generated NiO-CoO solid solution, only Ni3O4-Co3O4 solid solution was observed after the calcination at a low temperature of 500 oC. Furthermore, if the calcination was carried out at a medium temperature arranged from 600 to 700 oC, both NiO-CoO and Ni3O4-Co3O4 solid solutions can be formed. This occurred because Co3O4 can induce the formation of Ni3O4, whereas NiO can stabilize CoO. In addition, the lattice parameter of Ni3O4, which was predicted by using Vegard’s Law, is 8.2054 Å. As a very important part of this dissertation, Ni-Co solid solution was evaluated as catalysts for CO2 reforming of methane. It was revealed that nickel-cobalt solid solution showed excellent catalytic performance and high stability for CO2 reforming of methane. However, the stability of Ni-Co solid solution catalysts is strongly dependent on their composition and preparation condition. The optimum composition is 50%Ni-50%Co. Furthermore, the structure of Ni-Co catalysts was characterized by XRD, Vvis, TPR, TPD, BET, AES, TEM, XANES and EXAFS. The relationship between the structure and the catalytic performance was established: (1) The reduced NiO-CoO solid solution possesses better catalytic performance and stability than the reduced Ni3O4-Co3O4 solid solution. (2) Ni is richer on surface in Ni-Co catalysts. And (3) the reduction of Ni-Co-O solid solution generated two types of particles, small and large particles. The small ones are dispersed on large ones as catalytic component.

THE POTENTIAL OF INDUSTRIAL WASTE AND AGRICULTURAL FEEDSTOCK TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUELS PRODUCTION: TECHNO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT PERSPECTIVES

This Ph.D. research is comprised of three major components; (i) Characterization study to analyze the composition of defatted corn syrup (DCS) from a dry corn mill facility (ii) Hydrolysis experiments to optimize the production of fermentable sugars and amino acid platform using DCS and (iii) Sustainability analyses. Analyses of DCS included total solids, ash content, total protein, amino acids, inorganic elements, starch, total carbohydrates, lignin, organic acids, glycerol, and presence of functional groups. Total solids content was 37.4% (± 0.4%) by weight, and the mass balance closure was 101%. Total carbohydrates [27% (± 5%) wt.] comprised of starch (5.6%), soluble monomer carbohydrates (12%) and non-starch carbohydrates (10%). Hemicellulose components (structural and non-structural) were; xylan (6%), xylose (1%), mannan (1%), mannose (0.4%), arabinan (1%), arabinose (0.4%), galatactan (3%) and galactose (0.4%). Based on the measured physical and chemical components, bio-chemical conversion route and subsequent fermentation to value added products was identified as promising. DCS has potential to serve as an important fermentation feedstock for bio-based chemicals production. In the sugar hydrolysis experiments, reaction parameters such as acid concentration and retention time were analyzed to determine the optimal conditions to maximize monomer sugar yields while keeping the inhibitors at minimum. Total fermentable sugars produced can reach approximately 86% of theoretical yield when subjected to dilute acid pretreatment (DAP). DAP followed by subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis was most effective for 0 wt% acid hydrolysate samples and least efficient towards 1 and 2 wt% acid hydrolysate samples. The best hydrolysis scheme DCS from an industry's point of view is standalone 60 minutes dilute acid hydrolysis at 2 wt% acid concentration. The combined effect of hydrolysis reaction time, temperature and ratio of enzyme to substrate ratio to develop hydrolysis process that optimizes the production of amino acids in DCS were studied. Four key hydrolysis pathways were investigated for the production of amino acids using DCS. The first hydrolysis pathway is the amino acid analysis using DAP. The second pathway is DAP of DCS followed by protein hydrolysis using proteases [Trypsin, Pronase E (Streptomyces griseus) and Protex 6L]. The third hydrolysis pathway investigated a standalone experiment using proteases (Trypsin, Pronase E, Protex 6L, and Alcalase) on the DCS without any pretreatment. The final pathway investigated the use of Accellerase 1500® and Protex 6L to simultaneously produce fermentable sugars and amino acids over a 24 hour hydrolysis reaction time. The 3 key objectives of the techno-economic analysis component of this PhD research included; (i) Development of a process design for the production of both the sugar and amino acid platforms with DAP using DCS (ii) A preliminary cost analysis to estimate the initial capital cost and operating cost of this facility (iii) A greenhouse gas analysis to understand the environmental impact of this facility. Using Aspen Plus®, a conceptual process design has been constructed. Finally, both Aspen Plus Economic Analyzer® and Simapro® sofware were employed to conduct the cost analysis as well as the carbon footprint emissions of this process facility respectively. Another section of my PhD research work focused on the life cycle assessment (LCA) of commonly used dairy feeds in the U.S. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis was conducted for cultivation, harvesting, and production of common dairy feeds used for the production of dairy milk in the U.S. The goal was to determine the carbon footprint [grams CO2 equivalents (gCO2e)/kg of dry feed] in the U.S. on a regional basis, identify key inputs, and make recommendations for emissions reduction. The final section of my Ph.D. research work was an LCA of a single dairy feed mill located in Michigan, USA. The primary goal was to conduct a preliminary assessment of dairy feed mill operations and ultimately determine the GHG emissions for 1 kilogram of milled dairy feed.

THE USE OF LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MATERIALS IN MANUFACTURING

This thesis is composed of three life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of manufacturing to determine cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methods proposed could reduce the environmental impact by reducing the CED in three manufacturing processes. First, industrial symbiosis is proposed and a LCA is performed on both conventional 1 GW-scaled hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H)-based single junction and a-Si:H/microcrystalline-Si:H tandem cell solar PV manufacturing plants and such plants coupled to silane recycling plants. Using a recycling process that results in a silane loss of only 17 versus 85 percent, this results in a CED savings of 81,700 GJ and 290,000 GJ per year for single and tandem junction plants, respectively. This recycling process reduces the cost of raw silane by 68 percent, or approximately $22.6 and $79 million per year for a single and tandem 1 GW PV production facility, respectively. The results show environmental benefits of silane recycling centered around a-Si:H-based PV manufacturing plants. Second, an open-source self-replicating rapid prototype or 3-D printer, the RepRap, has the potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing of polymer-based products, using distributed manufacturing paradigm, which is further minimized by the use of PV and improvements in PV manufacturing. Using 3-D printers for manufacturing provides the ability to ultra-customize products and to change fill composition, which increases material efficiency. An LCA was performed on three polymer-based products to determine the CED and GHG from conventional large-scale production and are compared to experimental measurements on a RepRap producing identical products with ABS and PLA. The results of this LCA study indicate that the CED of manufacturing polymer products can possibly be reduced using distributed manufacturing with existing 3-D printers under 89% fill and reduced even further with a solar photovoltaic system. The results indicate that the ability of RepRaps to vary fill has the potential to diminish environmental impact on many products. Third, one additional way to improve the environmental performance of this distributed manufacturing system is to create the polymer filament feedstock for 3-D printers using post-consumer plastic bottles. An LCA was performed on the recycling of high density polyethylene (HDPE) using the RecycleBot. The results of the LCA showed that distributed recycling has a lower CED than the best-case scenario used for centralized recycling. If this process is applied to the HDPE currently recycled in the U.S., more than 100 million MJ of energy could be conserved per annum along with significant reductions in GHG. This presents a novel path to a future of distributed manufacturing suited for both the developed and developing world with reduced environmental impact. From improving manufacturing in the photovoltaic industry with the use of recycling to recycling and manufacturing plastic products within our own homes, each step reduces the impact on the environment. The three coupled projects presented here show a clear potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing and other processes by implementing complimenting systems, which have environmental benefits of their own in order to achieve a compounding effect of reduced CED and GHG.

Biochemical Conversions of Lignocellulosic Biomass for Sustainable Fuel-Ethanol Production in the Upper Midwest

Biofuels are an increasingly important component of worldwide energy supply. This research aims to understand the pathways and impacts of biofuels production, and to improve these processes to make them more efficient. In Chapter 2, a life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented for cellulosic ethanol production from five potential feedstocks of regional importance to the upper Midwest - hybrid poplar, hybrid willow, switchgrass, diverse prairie grasses, and logging residues - according to the requirements of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Direct land use change emissions are included for the conversion of abandoned agricultural land to feedstock production, and computer models of the conversion process are used in order to determine the effect of varying biomass composition on overall life cycle impacts. All scenarios analyzed here result in greater than 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to petroleum gasoline. Land use change effects were found to contribute significantly to the overall emissions for the first 20 years after plantation establishment. Chapter 3 is an investigation of the effects of biomass mixtures on overall sugar recovery from the combined processes of dilute acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Biomass mixtures studied were aspen, a hardwood species well suited to biochemical processing; balsam, a high-lignin softwood species, and switchgrass, an herbaceous energy crop with high ash content. A matrix of three different dilute acid pretreatment severities and three different enzyme loading levels was used to characterize interactions between pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Maximum glucose yield for any species was 70% oftheoretical for switchgrass, and maximum xylose yield was 99.7% of theoretical for aspen. Supplemental β-glucosidase increased glucose yield from enzymatic hydrolysis by an average of 15%, and total sugar recoveries for mixtures could be predicted to within 4% by linear interpolation of the pure species results. Chapter 4 is an evaluation of the potential for producing Trichoderma reesei cellulose hydrolases in the Kluyveromyces lactis yeast expression system. The exoglucanases Cel6A and Cel7A, and the endoglucanase Cel7B were inserted separately into the K. lactis and the enzymes were analyzed for activity on various substrates. Recombinant Cel7B was found to be active on carboxymethyl cellulose and Avicel powdered cellulose substrates. Recombinant Cel6A was also found to be active on Avicel. Recombinant Cel7A was produced, but no enzymatic activity was detected on any substrate. Chapter 5 presents a new method for enzyme improvement studies using enzyme co-expression and yeast growth rate measurements as a potential high-throughput expression and screening system in K. lactis yeast. Two different K. lactis strains were evaluated for their usefulness in growth screening studies, one wild-type strain and one strain which has had the main galactose metabolic pathway disabled. Sequential transformation and co-expression of the exoglucanase Cel6A and endoglucanase Cel7B was performed, and improved hydrolysis rates on Avicel were detectable in the cell culture supernatant. Future work should focus on hydrolysis of natural substrates, developing the growth screening method, and utilizing the K. lactis expression system for directed evolution of enzymes.

Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

The effect of figures in CCS communication

Illustrations are an essential part of most CCS communication materials. This article looks at the role of illustrations in communication and education in general, and in CCS communication in particular. First, literature on multimedia learning is reviewed and general guidelines for designing graphical displays deduced. This is followed by a discussion of relevant mental models and their possible implementa- tion in pictorial form. The authors then report on an interview study in which illustrations with various implementations of CCS mental models are compared. No major differences were found regarding under- standing of CCS between the different illustrations. Graphical displays alone are not powerful enough to implicitly correct typical misconceptions about CCS. Such misconceptions should be stated explicitly, along with their correction.

Diffusive equilibration of N2, O2 and CO2 mixing ratios in a 1.5-million-years-old ice core

In the framework of the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences, one of the most important targets is to retrieve an Antarctic ice core that extends over the last 1.5 million years (i.e. an ice core that enters the climate era when glacial–interglacial cycles followed the obliquity cycles of the earth). In such an ice core the annual layers of the oldest ice would be thinned by a factor of about 100 and the climatic information of a 10 000 yr interval would be contained in less than 1 m of ice. The gas record in such an Antarctic ice core can potentially reveal the role of greenhouse gas forcing on these 40 000 yr cycles. However, besides the extreme thinning of the annual layers, also the long residence time of the trapped air in the ice and the relatively high ice temperatures near the bedrock favour diffusive exchanges. To investigate the changes in the O2 / N2 ratio, as well as the trapped CO2 concentrations, we modelled the diffusive exchange of the trapped gases O2, N2 and CO2 along the vertical axis. However, the boundary conditions of a potential drilling site are not yet well constrained and the uncertainties in the permeation coefficients of the air constituents in the ice are large. In our simulations, we have set the drill site ice thickness at 2700 m and the bedrock ice temperature at 5–10 K below the ice pressure melting point. Using these conditions and including all further uncertainties associated with the drill site and the permeation coefficients, the results suggest that in the oldest ice the precessional variations in the O2 / N2 ratio will be damped by 50–100%, whereas CO2 concentration changes associated with glacial–interglacial variations will likely be conserved (simulated damping 5%). If the precessional O2 / N2 signal will have disappeared completely in this future ice core, orbital tuning of the ice-core age scale will be limited.

Last interglacial temperature evolution — a model inter-comparison

There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG). This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter temperatures. Secondly, for the Atlantic region, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific, possible changes in the characteristics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are crucial. Thirdly, the presence of remnant continental ice from the preceding glacial has shown to be important when determining the timing of maximum LIG warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the results reveal that changes in the monsoon regime exert a strong control on the evolution of LIG temperatures over parts of Africa and India. By listing these inter-model differences, we provide a starting point for future proxy-data studies and the sensitivity experiments needed to constrain the climate simulations and to further enhance our understanding of the temperature evolution of the LIG period.

Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century

The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by about half. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m−2 yr−1 over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in present-day peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either sustain or turn towards a source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.