Mid-late Holocene monsoon climate retrieved from seasonal Sr/Ca and delta O-18 records of Porites lutea corals at Leizhou Peninsula, northern coast of South China Sea

South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region, providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China, which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and delta(18)O data for five Holocene and one modem Porites corals, each covering a growth history of 9-13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from similar to 6800 to 1500 years ago, despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca-SST in the 1990s (24.8 degrees C), 10-year mean Sr/Ca-SSTs were 0.9-0.5 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP), dropped to the present level by similar to 2.5 ky BP, and reached a low of 22.6 degrees C (2.2 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca-SST maxima, which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution, follow the same trend, i.e. being 1-2 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP, dropping to the present level by -2.5 ky BP, and reaching a low of 28.7 degrees C (0.7 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea, resulting in a general decrease in the seawater delta(18)O values, reflected by offsets of mean 6 180 relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene, in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation, which was also found in pollen, lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions similar to 2.5 and similar to 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia, SST increased dramatically in recent time, with that in the 1990s being 2.2 degrees C warmer than that similar to 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming, which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are US coral reefs on the slippery slope to slime?

Conservation of U.S. coral reefs has been sidetracked by the partial implementation of management plans without clearly achievable goals. Historical ecology reveals global patterns of coral reef degradation that provide a framework for reversing reef decline with ecologically meaningful metrics for success. The authors of this Policy Forum urge action now to address multiple threats simultaneously, because the harmful effects of stressors like overfishing, pollution, poor land-use practices, and global warming are interdependent. Prompt implementation of proven, practical solutions would lead to both short- and long-term benefits, including the return of keystone species and the economic benefits they entail.

Optimization of pipeline transport for CO2 sequestration

Coal fired power generation will continue to provide energy to the world for the foreseeable future. However, this energy use is a significant contributor to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and, hence, global warming. Capture and disposal Of CO2 has received increased R&D attention in the last decade as the technology promises to be the most cost effective for large scale reductions in CO2 emissions. This paper addresses CO2 transport via pipeline from capture site to disposal site, in terms of system optimization, energy efficiency and overall economics. Technically, CO2 can be transported through pipelines in the form of a gas, a supercritical. fluid or in the subcooled liquid state. Operationally, most CO2 pipelines used for enhanced oil recovery transport CO2 as a supercritical fluid. In this paper, supercritical fluid and subcooled liquid transport are examined and compared, including their impacts on energy efficiency and cost. Using a commercially available process simulator, ASPEN PLUS 10.1, the results show that subcooled liquid transport maximizes the energy efficiency and minimizes the Cost Of CO2 transport over long distances under both isothermal and adiabatic conditions. Pipeline transport of subcooled liquid CO2 can be ideally used in areas of cold climate or by burying and insulating the pipeline. In very warm climates, periodic refrigeration to cool the CO2 below its critical point of 31.1 degrees C, may prove economical. Simulations have been used to determine the maximum safe pipeline distances to subsequent booster stations as a function of inlet pressure, environmental temperature and ground level heat flux conditions. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of incubation temperature on hatchling phenotype in reptiles

Incubation temperature influences hatchling phenotypes such as sex, size, shape, color, behavior, and locomotor performance in many reptiles, and there is growing concern that global warming might adversely affect reptile populations by altering frequencies of hatchling phenotypes. Here I overview a recent theoretical model used to predict hatchling sex of reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination. This model predicts that sex ratios will be fairly robust to moderate global warming as long as eggs experience substantial daily cyclic fluctuations in incubation temperatures so that embryos are exposed to temperatures that inhibit embryonic development for part of the day. I also review studies that examine the influence of incubation temperature on posthatch locomotion performance and growth because these are the traits that are likely to have the greatest effect on hatchling fitness. The majority of these studies used artificial constant-temperature incubation, but some have addressed fluctuating incubation temperature regimes. Although the number of studies is small, it appears that fluctuating temperatures may enhance hatchling locomotor performance. This finding should not be surprising, given that the majority of natural reptile nests are relatively shallow and therefore experience daily fluctuations in incubation temperature.

Optimum coal properties and engineering processes for CO2 geosequestration in Coal

CO2 Geosequestration is seen by many worldwide scientists and engineers as a leading prospective solution to the global warming problem arising from excessive CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 geosequestration in coal seams has two important strategic benefits: the process has an extremely low risk of leakage, due to the adsorbed state of the CO2 and the known reservoir context of essentially-zero leakage into which it is be injected; the second benefit arises from the valuable by-product, clean burning coalbed methane gas. This paper presents the authors’ experience, knowledge and perspective on what coal properties and engineering processes would favour implementing a demonstration or commercial CO2 storage-in-coal project, in Queensland, Australia. As such, it may be considered a template for screening studies to select the optimum coal seam reservoir, and for preliminary studies in designing the injection system and predicting production response to the technology. The paper concludes by examining the current knowledge gaps of CO2 geosequestration in coal, identifying further basic and applied research topics.

Climate change and knowledge politics

This paper addresses the paradox that although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reached a broad consensus, various governments pursue different, if not opposing policies. This puzzle not only challenges the traditional belief that scientific knowledge is objective and can be more or less directly translated into political action, but also calls for a better understanding of the relation between science and public policy in modern society. Based on the conceptual framework of knowledge politics the use of expert knowledge in public discourse and in political decisions will be analysed. This will be carried out through a country comparison between the United States and Germany. The main finding is that the press in both countries relies on different sources of scientific expertise when reporting on global warming. In a similar way, governments in both countries use these different sources for legitimising their contrasting policies.

The two limits debates: "Limits to Growth" and climate change

In this article we compare the current debate about global warming with the earlier discourse of Limits to Growth (LtG) of the 1970's. We are especially interested in the similarities of and differences between the two cases and therefore compare the policy challenges and lessons to be drawn. While the two debates differ on important issues, they share a technocratic orientation to public policy, and susceptibility to similar pitfalls. In both debates alarming scenarios about future catastrophes play an important role. We suggest that climate change policy discourse needs to focus more closely on the social, economic, and political dimensions of climate change, as opposed to its excessive emphasis on emission reduction targets. We also argue that an excessive faith in the market mechanisms to supply global warming mitigation technologies is problematic. In this respect, we provide a reality check regarding the political implications of emission targets and timetables and suggest how policy issues can be moved forward.

Lichen growth and lichenometry

Lichenometry is one of the most widely used methods available for dating the surface age of various substrata including rock surfaces, boulders, walls, and archaeological remains. It depends on the assumption that if the lag time before colonisation of a substratum by a lichen is known and lichen age can be estimated, then a minimum date can be obtained by measuring the diameter (or another property related to size) of the largest lichen at the site. Lichen age can be determined by variety of methods including calibrating lichen size against surfaces of known age (‘indirect lichenometry’), by constructing a growth rate-size curve from direct measurement of lichen growth (‘direct lichenometry’), using radio-carbon (RC) dating, and from lichen ‘growth rings’. This chapter describes: (1) lichen growth rates and longevity, (2) methods of estimating lichen age, (3) the methodology of lichenometry and (4) applications of lichenometry. Despite its limitations, lichenometry is likely to continue to play an important role in dating a variety of surfaces and also in providing data that contribute to the debate regarding global warming and climate change.

A környezethez való jog és a Kiotói Jegyzőkönyv (Right to environment and Kyoto Protocol)

A Kiotói Jegyzőkönyv az 1992-ben Rio de Janeiro-ban megrendezésre került Környezet és Fejlődés Világkonferenciáján elfogadott nyilatkozatának 1997-ben aláírt kiegészítő jegyzőkönyve. A Kiotói Jegyzőkönyvben minden aláíró ország vállalta, hogy egy bizonyos százalékos arányban csökkenti országában a kibocsátott üvegházhatást okozó gázok mennyiségét, ezáltal mérsékelve a globális felmelegedés előrehaladtát. A Jegyzőkönyvhöz az Egyesült Államok és több fejlő ország, mint Kína vagy India gazdasági megfontolásból másrészt politikai szűklátókörűségből nem csatlakozott. Ez azonban a komoly aggályokat vet fel azzal kapcsolatban, hogy a környezetvédelmi szabályokat betartó államok erőfeszítései önmagában elegendőek lesznek-e a globális felmelegedés megállítására, de legalábbis csökkentésére. _____________ The Kyoto Protocol signed in the Japanese city in Kyoto in 1997 is a supplemental document to the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development organized in Rio de Janeiro. In the Kyoto Protocol individual countries have mandatory emissions targets for the greenhouse gases they must meet to slow down global warming. The United States of America, and several developing countries, as China and India did not yet joined the Protocol partly because of economic reasons and other ways because of narrow-minded political interests. This brings up serious doubt weather the efforts of the parties of the Protocol can make any change in the recent global processes.

Scenarios and roots of climate change

There have been more and more words about climate change and global warming in the last few decades. But what do we really understand them? Is it logic that the climate change derived by human behaviour or is it an independent process of nature that occurs no matter how we try to stop it? Is the climate change a global warming or global cooling method? We know for sure that something is changing around us and we heard a million times that if we exhaust the resources of the Earth than we will cause permanent and irreversible damage. In the first part of this chapter we will see the facts. There will be a few different perspectives from a few different institutions publication about the methodology of measurement on climate change. In the second part of the chapter we shall distinguish how big part of the changes may be the results of the human activities, or is it even possible to distinguish what causes the climate change. In the last part of this chapter the IPCC’s scenario will be explained on the case if the process of the climate change can not be stopped, or if human kind does not do anything for mitigation.

Climate change in game theory

The study provides an overview of the application possibilities of game theory to climate change. The characteristics of games are adapted to the topics of climate and carbon. The importance of uncertainty, probability, marginal value of adaptation, common pool resources, etc. are tailored to the context of international relations and the challenge of global warming.

Climate change impacts on migration and labour market

Floods, droughts and monsoons have always disturbed human settlements, but there are more settlements now and more people in the world. Therefore, if a natural disaster happens, more will suffer than ever before. Moreover, climate in the past several decades has been greatly degraded by anthropogenic activity. In some cases, the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (e.g. the effects of irrigation on local humidity), though there are instances where it is less clear. Presently, the scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase of global average temperatures, more generally known as global warming.

Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling

In the years 2004 and 2005 we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature, but the abundance of the three mentioned groups. This discrete-deterministic model could generate similar patterns like the observed one and testing it on historical data was successful. However, because the model was overpredicting the abundances of Ischnura pumilio and Cyclopoida at the end of the year, these results were not considered. Running the model with the data series of climate change scenarios, we had an opportunity to predict the individual numbers for the period around 2050. If the model is run with the data series of the two scenarios UKHI and UKLO, which predict drastic global warming, then we can observe a decrease in abundance and shift in the date of the maximum abundance occurring (excluding Ischnura pumilio, where the maximum abundance increases and it occurs later), whereas under unchanged climatic conditions (BASE scenario) the change in abundance is negligible. According to the scenarios GFDL 2535, GFDL 5564 and UKTR, a transition could be noticed.

Trends in research on the possible effects of climate change concerning aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the modelling approach

Knowledge on the expected effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is defined by three ways. On the one hand, long-term observation in the field serves as a basis for the possible changes; on the other hand, the experimental approach may bring valuable pieces of information to the research field. The expected effects of climate change cannot be studied by empirical approach; rather mathematical models are useful tools for this purpose. Within this study, the main findings of field observations and their implications for future were summarized; moreover, the modelling approaches were discussed in a more detailed way. Some models try to describe the variation of physical parameters in a given aquatic habitat, thus our knowledge on their biota is confined to the findings based on our present observations. Others are destined for answering special issues related to the given water body. Complex ecosystem models are the keys of our better understanding of the possible effects of climate change. Basically, these models were not created for testing the influence of global warming, rather focused on the description of a complex system (e. g. a lake) involving environmental variables, nutrients. However, such models are capable of studying climatic changes as well by taking into consideration a large set of environmental variables. Mostly, the outputs are consistent with the assumptions based on the findings in the field. Since synthetized models are rather difficult to handle and require quite large series of data, the authors proposed a more simple modelling approach, which is capable of examining the effects of global warming. This approach includes weather dependent simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of aquatic organisms within a simplified framework.

Soot measurements in steady and pulsed ethylene/air diffusion flames using Laser-Induced Incandescence

Combustion-generated carbon black nano particles, or soot, have both positive and negative effects depending on the application. From a positive point of view, it is used as a reinforcing agent in tires, black pigment in inks, and surface coatings. From a negative point of view, it affects performance and durability of many combustion systems, it is a major contributor of global warming, and it is linked to respiratory illness and cancer. Laser-Induced Incandescence (LII) was used in this study to measure soot volume fractions in four steady and twenty-eight pulsed ethylene diffusion flames burning at atmospheric pressure. A laminar coflow diffusion burner combined with a very-high-speed solenoid valve and control circuit provided unsteady flows by forcing the fuel flow with frequencies between 10 Hz and 200 Hz. Periodic flame oscillations were captured by two-dimensional phase-locked LII images and broadband luminosity images for eight phases (0° – 360°) covering each period. A comparison between the steady and pulsed flames and the effect of the pulsation frequency on soot volume fraction in the flame region and the post flame region are presented. The most significant effect of pulsing frequency was observed at 10 Hz. At this frequency, the flame with the lowest mean flow rate had 1.77 times enhancement in peak soot volume fraction and 1.2 times enhancement in total soot volume fraction; whereas the flame with the highest mean flow rate had no significant change in the peak soot volume fraction and 1.4 times reduction in the total soot volume fraction. A correlation (fvRe-1 = a + b·Str) for the total soot volume fraction in the flame region for the unsteady laminar ethylene flames was obtained for the pulsation frequency between 10 Hz and 200 Hz, and the Reynolds number between 37 and 55. The soot primary particle size in steady and unsteady flames was measured using the Time-Resolved Laser-Induced Incandescence (TIRE-LII) and the double-exponential fit method. At maximum frequency (200 Hz), the soot particles were smaller in size by 15% compared to the steady case in the flame with the highest mean flow rate.