Iowa General Assembly Reception Report

Report of expenditures for DOT legislative reception held Jan. 24, 2008.

A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium

We propose a simple adaptive procedure for playing a game. In thisprocedure, players depart from their current play with probabilities thatare proportional to measures of regret for not having used other strategies(these measures are updated every period). It is shown that our adaptiveprocedure guaranties that with probability one, the sample distributionsof play converge to the set of correlated equilibria of the game. Tocompute these regret measures, a player needs to know his payoff functionand the history of play. We also offer a variation where every playerknows only his own realized payoff history (but not his payoff function).

A general decomposition formula for derivative prices in stochastic volatility models

We see that the price of an european call option in a stochastic volatilityframework can be decomposed in the sum of four terms, which identifythe main features of the market that affect to option prices: the expectedfuture volatility, the correlation between the volatility and the noisedriving the stock prices, the market price of volatility risk and thedifference of the expected future volatility at different times. We alsostudy some applications of this decomposition.

General preferences for consumption goods in the random matching model of commodity money

This paper generalizes the original random matching model of money byKiyotaki and Wright (1989) (KW) in two aspects: first, the economy ischaracterized by an arbitrary distribution of agents who specialize in producing aparticular consumption good; and second, these agents have preferences suchthat they want to consume any good with some probability. The resultsdepend crucially on the size of the fraction of producers of each goodand the probability with which different agents want to consume eachgood. KW and other related models are shown to be parameterizations ofthis more general one.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology payroll system for the period March 27 through May 11, 2007

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology payroll system for the period March 27 through May 11, 2007

General trends in world biogeographic literature: a preliminary bibliometric analysis

Records with the search string biogeograph* were collected from the Science Citation Index (SCI). A total of 3456 records were downloaded for the 1945-2006 period from titles of articles and reviews, and 10,543 records were downloaded for 1991-2006, taking into consideration also abstracts and keywords. Temporal trends of publications, geographical and institutional distribution of the research output, authorship, and core journals were evaluated. There were as many as 122 countries carrying out biogeographic research; in the most recent period, USA is the top producing country, followed by the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, and Canada. There were 17,493 authors contributing to the field. During 1991-2006 there were 4098 organizations with authors involved in biogeographic research; institutions with higher number of papers are the Natural History Museum (United Kingdom), the University of California, Berkeley (USA), the Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle (France), the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (Mexico), the American Museum of Natural History (USA) and the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia). Research articles are spread over a variety of journals, with the Journal of Biogeography, Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, Molecular Ecology, and Biological Journal of the Linnean Society being the core journals. From 28,759 keywords retrieved those with the highest frequency were evolution, phylogeny, diversity, mitochondrial DNA, pattern(s), systematics, and population(s). We conclude that publications on biogeography have increased substantially during the last years, especially since 1998. The preferred journal for biogeographic papers is the Journal of Biogeography. Most frequent keywords seem to indicate that biogeography fits well within both evolutionary biology and ecology, with molecular biology and phylogenetics being important factors that drive their current development.

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

Country asymmetries, endogenous product choice and the speed of trade liberalization

In a world with two countries which differ in size, we study theimpact of (the speed of) trade liberalization on firms' profitsand total welfare of the countries involved. Firms correctlyanticipate the pace of trade liberalization and take it intoaccount when deciding on their product choices, which areendogenously determined at the beginning of the game. Competitionin the marketplace then occurs either on quantities or on prices.As long as the autarkic phase continues, local firms are nationalmonopolists. When trade liberalization occurs, firms compete in aninternational duopoly. We analyze trade effects by using twodifferent models of product differentiation. Across all thespecifications adopted (and independently of the price v. quantitycompetition hypothesis), total welfare always unambiguously riseswith the speed of trade liberalization: Possible losses by firmsare always outweighed by consumers' gains, which come under theform of lower prices, enlarged variety of higher average qualitiesavailable. The effect on profits depends on the type of industryanalyzed. Two results in particular seem to be worth of mention.With vertical product differentiation and fixed costs of qualityimprovements, the expected size of the market faced by the firmsdetermines the incentive to invest in quality. The longer the periodof autarky, the lower the possibility that the firm from the smallcountry would be producing the high quality and be the leader in theinternational market when it opens. On the contrary, when trade opensimmediately, national markets do not play any role and firms fromdifferent countries have the same opportunity to become the leader.Hence, immediate trade liberalization might be in the interest ofproducers in the small country. In general, the lower the size of thesmall country, the more likely its firm will gain from tradeliberalization. Losses from the small country firm can arise when itis relegated to low quality good production and the domestic marketsize is not very small. With horizontal product differentiation (thehomogeneous good case being a limit case of it when costs ofdifferentiation tend to infinity), investments in differentiationbenefit both firms in equal manner. Firms from the small country do notrun the risk of being relegated to a lower competitive position undertrade. As a result, they would never lose from it. Instead, firms fromthe large country may still incur losses from the opening of trade whenthe market expansion effect is low (i.e. when the country is very largerelative to the other).

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Comentario general del crucero de evaluación del recurso merluza ejecutado en otoño de 1995 (Cr. BIC SNP-1, 9505-06)

Presenta las observaciones realizadas desde hace varios años, investigadas por el Instituto del Mar del Perú a través de su programa de seguimiento de pesqueras demersales y costeras, y de la evaluación directa de los stocks de peces de mar.

Do Jardim-de-Infância ao Centro de Actividades de Tempos Livres: Representações das Crianças sobre o Brincar

A investigação “Do Jardim-de-infância ao Centro de Actividades de Tempos Livres: Representações das Crianças sobre o Brincar” reconhece as crianças como actores sociais, sujeitos de direitos, entre eles, o direito à participação em assuntos que lhes digam directamente respeito, a assuntos de seu interesse, nomeadamente o direito ao brincar. O brincar é uma actividade lúdica, assim como o jogar, importante no processo de crescimento e desenvolvimento da criança e, nos tempos que correm, a sociedade, de uma forma geral, e particularmente as famílias, preocupam-se muito com o trabalho e colocam as necessidades básicas das crianças em segundo plano ao valorizarem acima de tudo o sucesso e o desempenho das mesmas. Assim, se participar significa “tomar parte em”, reconhece-se a necessidade de ouvir as crianças e o que elas têm a dizer sobre essa actividade lúdica, sobre a forma como organizam o seu dia e o tempo que despendem para brincar e sobre a forma como gostariam de ver os seus dias ocupados. É neste pressuposto, de que é através da acção e da voz das crianças, que é possível a construção de um conhecimento teórico e válido que contribua para uma melhor intervenção educativa com as crianças. Esta investigação, que decorreu numa instituição com várias vertentes, entre elas a vertente da Animação Infantil, enquadra-se no paradigma qualitativo de natureza participativa, e procura interpretar os significados atribuídos pelas crianças, que frequentam o Jardim-deinfância da rede pública e a mesma instituição, na condição de Componente de Apoio à Família, ao brincar, às suas vivências no que concerne à gestão do seu quotidiano, quer no que refere ao tempo que passam no Jardim-de-infância, quer no que passam no Prolongamento de Horário/Actividades de Tempos Livres. Neste trabalho de investigação que decorreu numa instituição situada numa freguesia pertencente ao Distrito de Viana do Castelo e que disponibiliza os serviços de ATL, participaram como protagonistas as crianças da faixa etária entre os três e os seis anos de idade e que frequentam dois contextos: educacional e lúdico. Este trabalho é sustentado por um referencial teórico que engloba o brincar na sociedade actual e a sua importância, a educação pré-escolar e as suas funções, a natureza da componente de apoio à família, a animação sócio-educativa e os contextos de vida das crianças, que permitiram questionar a participação infantil em assuntos de seu interesse. Ainda que este estudo não permita generalizações, reflecte-se sobre a realidade existente, dá voz às crianças e indica aspectos que, de uma forma geral, precisam de mais atenção. Afinal o brincar na infância é um assunto sério…

Comentario general sobre prospección de recursos pelágicos costeros y demersales costeros. E/E Huamanga 9611-12

Describe la actividad pesquera artesanal en el Perú, desarrollada hasta las 20 millas aproximadamente. En esta zona se captura una variedad de recursos hidrobiológicos que en su mayoría son destinados al consumo humano directo, considerando que el nivel de las capturas de la pesca artesanal representan el 43% de los detinados al consumo humano y de éstos el 100% son derivados al consumo fresco.