In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Global rules on conflict-of-laws matters in international insolvency law cases: An Australian perspective

The 2012 Report “Transnational Insolvency: Global Principles for Co-operation in International Insolvency Cases” – commissioned by The American Law Institute in conjunction with The International Insolvency Institute – annexed 23 “Global Rules on Conflict-of-Laws Matters in International Insolvency Cases”. These proposed “Global Rules” are intended to “serve as legislative recommendations” to (inter alia) promote uniformity and greater certainty in the unpredictable area of conflict of laws. This article provides a brief commentary upon the 23 proposed Global Rules from an Australian perspective (comparing the effect and intent of each rule with the current Australian conflict-of-laws position) and offers some conclusions as to the merits of the “Global Rules” initiative.

Improved shear design rules of cold-formed steel beams

Light gauge cold-formed steel sections have been developed as more economical building solutions to the alternative heavier hot-rolled sections in the commercial and residential markets. Cold-formed lipped channel beams (LCB), LiteSteel beams (LSB) and triangular hollow flange beams (THFB) are commonly used as flexural members such as floor joists and bearers while rectangular hollow flange beams (RHFB) are used in small scale housing developments through to large building structures. However, their shear capacities are determined based on conservative design rules. For the shear design of cold-formed steel beams, their elastic shear buckling strength and the potential post-buckling strength must be determined accurately. Hence experimental and numerical studies were conducted to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs, LSBs, THFBs and RHFBs. Improved shear design rules including the direct strength method (DSM) based design equations were developed to determine the ultimate shear capacities of these open and hollow flange steel beams. An improved equation for the higher elastic shear buckling coefficient of cold-formed steel beams was proposed based on finite element analysis results and included in the design equations. A new post-buckling coefficient was also introduced in the design equations to include the available post-buckling strength of cold-formed steel beams. This paper presents the details of this study on cold-formed steel beams subject to shear, and the results. It proposes generalised and improved shear design rules that can be used for any type of cold-formed steel beam.

Monte Carlo analysis of a puzzle game

When a puzzle game is created, its design parameters must be chosen to allow solvable and interesting challenges to be created for the player. We investigate the use of random sampling as a computationally inexpensive means of automated game analysis, to evaluate the BoxOff family of puzzle games. This analysis reveals useful insights into the game, such as the surprising fact that almost 100% of randomly generated challenges have a solution, but less than 10% will be solved using strictly random play, validating the inventor’s design choices. We show the 1D game to be trivial and the 3D game to be viable.

Sharing social space with strangers: Setting, signalling and policing informal rules of driving etiquette

Recent research suggests that aggressive driving may be influenced by driver perceptions of their interactions with other drivers in terms of ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ behaviour. Drivers appear to take a moral standpoint on ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ driving behaviour. However, ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ in the context of road use is not defined solely by legislation, but includes informal rules that are sometimes termed ‘driving etiquette’. Driving etiquette has implications for road safety and public safety since breaches of both formal and informal rules may result in moral judgement of others and subsequent behaviours designed to punish the ‘offender’ or ‘teach them a lesson’. This paper outlines qualitative research that was undertaken with drivers to explore their understanding of driving etiquette and how they reacted to other drivers’ observance or violation of their understanding. The aim was to develop an explanatory framework within which the relationships between driving etiquette and aggressive driving could be understood, specifically moral judgement of other drivers and punishment of their transgression of driving etiquette. Thematic analysis of focus groups (n=10) generated three main themes: (1) courtesy and reciprocity, and the notion of two-way responsibility, with examples of how expectations of courteous behaviour vary according to the traffic interaction; (2) acknowledgement and shared social experience: ‘giving the wave’; and (3) responses to breaches of the expectations/informal rules. The themes are discussed in terms of their roles in an explanatory framework of the informal rules of etiquette and how interactions between drivers can reinforce or weaken a driver’s understanding of driver etiquette and potentially lead to driving aggression.

Determination of the magnetic moment by QCD sum rules

The magnetic moment of the Λ hyperon is calculated using the QCD sum-rule approach of Ioffe and Smilga. It is shown that μΛ has the structure μΛ=(2/3(eu+ed+4es)(eħ/2MΛc)(1+δΛ), where δΛ is small. In deriving the sum rules special attention is paid to the strange-quark mass-dependent terms and to several additional terms not considered in earlier works. These terms are now appropriately incorporated. The sum rule is analyzed using the ratio method. Using the external-field-induced susceptibilities determined earlier, we find that the calculated value of μΛ is in agreement with experiment.

Gluon-field contribution in QCD sum rules for the magnetic moments of the nucleons

The Wilson coefficient corresponding to the gluon-field strength GμνGμν is evaluated for the nucleon current correlation function in the presence of a static external electromagnetic field, using a regulator mass Λ to separate the high-momentum part of the Feynman diagrams. The magnetic-moment sum rules are analyzed by two different methods and the sensitivity of the results to variations in Λ are discussed.

Ryhmäidentiteetin mittaaminen verkkoroolipelissä World of Warcraft

The objective of the study was to explore the dimensions of group identity in the guilds of World of Warcraft. Previous research shows that social interaction has an important role in playing games for many players. Social identities are an important aspect of self-concept and since group related cues are more salient than personal clues in computer-mediated communication, the social gaming experience was approached through group identity. In the study a new scale will be developed to measure the group identity in games. Secondary goal is to study how different guild attributes affect the group identity and third goal is to explore the connection between group identity and gaming experience and amount of play. Subjects were 1203 guild members and 106 players not in a guild. The data was gathered by an Internet survey which measured group identity with nine scales, gaming experience with three scales and guild attributes with four scales. Also various background data was gathered. The construct of group identity was analyzed with explorative factor analysis. The typical experiences of group identity was analyzed with cluster analysis and effects of guild attributes with multivariate analysis of covariance. As a result of the study a new scale was developed which measured group identity on six dimensions: self-stereotyping, public and private evaluation, importance, interconnection of self and others and awareness of content. Group identity was experienced strongest in elder middle-sized guilds that had formal rules and that emphasized social interaction. The players with strong group identity had more positive gaming experience and played World of Warcraft more per week than the players who were not in a guild or identified to guild weakly. This result encourages game developers to produce environments that enhance group identity as it seems to increase the enjoyment in games. As a whole this study proposes that group identity in guilds is constructed from the same elements as in traditional groups. If this is truly the case, guild membership may have similar positive effects on individual’s mental well-being as traditional positively evaluated group memberships have.

Education academics: Rules of engagement

Professor Carol Nicolls suggests that academics and postgraduate students in education should be consciously positioned to influence current and future policy. Through their research they could be contributing to the foundations for building the evidence base for good policy in education, and through their research and scholarship, be seen, where necessary, to publicly challenge the status quo in policy both now and in the future. All of this is more likely to ensure that we achieve the very best outcomes for all in education in Australia.