Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Influence of socioeconomic factors on delays, management and boutcome amongst patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention

Background¦The outcome after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) for STElevation¦Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) is strongly affected by time delays. In thepresent study, we sought to identify the impact of specific socioeconomic factors on time delays, subsequent STEMI management and outcomes in STEMI patients from a well-defined region of the French part of Switzerland.¦Method¦A total of 402 consecutive patients undergoing pPCI for STEMI in a large tertiary hospital were retrospectively studied. Symptom-to-first-medical-contact time was analyzed for the following socioeconomic factors: level of education, gender, origin and marital status. Main exclusion criteria were: time delay beyond 12 hours, previous treatment by fibrinolysis or patients immediately referred for CABG.¦Therefore, 352 patients were finally included.¦Results¦At one year, there was no difference in mortality amongst the different socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, there was no difference in management characteristics between them. Symptom-to-first-medical-contact time was significantly higher for patients with a low level of education, Swiss citizens and non-married patients with median differences of 40 minutes, 48 minutes, and 60 minutes, respectively (p<0.05).¦Nevertheless, no difference was found regarding in-hospital management and clinical outcome.¦Conclusion¦This study demonstrates that symptom-to-first-medical-contact time is higher amongst people with a lower educational level, Swiss-citizens, and non-married people. Because of the low mortality rate in general, these differences in time delays did not affect clinical outcomes. Still, primary prevention measures should particularly focus on these vulnerable populations.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

In vivo differentiation of Trypanosoma cruzi - 1. Experimental evidence of the influence of vector species on metacyclogenesis

Vector species has not hitherto been studied as influencing metacyclogenesis of Trypanosoma cruzi, while the role of the parasite strain has been frequently stressed as of dominant importance in this process. In order to fill this gap in our knowledge, metacyclogenesis was monitored in nine triatomine species. The first part of this paper presents photographs of the main and intermediate parasite stages in each vector species studied. In the second part of the study the proportional distribution of all these forms, as seen in Giemsa stained smears is summarized, thus providing an opportunity to analyze both: the length of time between the ingestion of the blood trypomastigotes and the appearance of metacyclic forms and the rates of developmental stages leading to these latter. The most remarkable observation was that metacyclogenesis rates in vivo appear to be vector dependent, reaching 50 in Rhodnius neglectus, 37 in its congener R. prolixus and being dramatically lower in the majority of Triatoma species (5 in T. sordida, 3 in T. brasiliensis and 0 in T. pseudomaculata) at the 120th day of infection. These observations suggest that through screening of different vector species it is possible to find some that are capable of minimizing or maximizing metacyclic production.

Eurytrema coelomaticum: influence of the infection on the reproduction and nucleic acids contents in the albumen gland and ovotestis of Bradybaena similaris

The number of eggs laid per snail in Bradybaena similaris and the nucleic acids (DNA and RNA) in the albumen gland and ovotestis were quantified in snails infected with sporocysts of the digenetic trematode Eurytrema coelomaticum. The total number of eggs laid per mollusc was reduced by 96.32% at the end of the larval development. The DNA concentration increased by 700% and the RNA concentration was reduced by 8,38% by the time when the daughter sporocysts of E. coelomaticum were released from B. similaris. The relation between these values and the inhibition of the reproduction observed in infected molluscs is discussed.

The influence of sugars and amino acids on the blood-feeding behaviour, oviposition and longevity of laboratory colony of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae)

Schneider's Drosophila medium, a complex amino acid rich medium was tested alone and with seven different sugars for some aspects of the biology of Lutzomyia longipalpis. Statistically significant results were obtained when sucrose was used alone, indicating that among the sugars tested, this is still the most suitable and practical one for the maintenance of L. longipalpis colonies. However, the addition of Schneider's medium to a pool of different sugars, was suggested to be related with the acceptance of the first and second blood meals and to longevity, these being, obviously, quite relevant aspects when tansmission experiments are contemplated.

Influence of the primary cleft palate closure on the future need for orthognathic surgery in unilateral cleft lip and palate patients.

The aim of the study was to determine the influence of the dissection of the palate during primary surgery and the type of orthognathic surgery needed in cases of unilateral total cleft. The review concerns 58 children born with a complete unilateral cleft lip and palate and treated between 1994 and 2008 at the appropriate age for orthognathic surgery. This is a retrospective mixed-longitudinal study. Patients with syndromes or associated anomalies were excluded. All children were treated by the same orthodontist and by the same surgical team. Children are divided into 2 groups: the first group includes children who had conventional primary cleft palate repair during their first year of life, with extensive mucoperiosteal undermining. The second group includes children operated on according to the Malek surgical protocol. The soft palate is closed at the age of 3 months, and the hard palate at 6 months with minimal mucoperiosteal undermining. Lateral cephalograms at ages 9 and 16 years and surgical records were compared. The need for orthognathic surgery was more frequent in the first than in the second group (60% vs 47.8%). Concerning the type of orthognathic surgery performed, 2- or 3-piece Le Fort I or bimaxillary osteotomies were also less required in the first group. Palate surgery following the Malek procedure results in an improved and simplified craniofacial outcome. With a minimal undermining of palatal mucosa, we managed to reduce the amount of patients who required an orthognathic procedure. When this procedure was indicated, the surgical intervention was also greatly simplified.

How does a hilly urban environment influence daily physical activity in obese individuals?

Background: Increases in physical activity (PA) are promoted by walking in an outdoor environment. Along with walking speed, slope is a major determinant of exercise intensity, and energy expenditure. The hypothesis was that in free-living conditions, a hilly environment diminishes PA to a greater extent in obese (OB) when compared with control (CO) individuals. Methods: To assess PA types and patterns, 28 CO (22 ± 2 kg/m2) and 14 OB (33 ± 4 kg/m2) individuals wore during an entire day 2 accelerometers and 1 GPS device, around respectively their waist, ankle and shoulder. They performed their usual PA and were asked to walk an additional 60 min per day. Results: The duration of inactivity and activity with OB individuals tended to be, respectively, higher and lower than that of CO individuals (P = .06). Both groups spent less time walking uphill/downhill than on the level (20%, 19%, vs. 61% of total walking duration, respectively, P < .001). However OB individuals spent less time walking uphill/downhill per day than CO (25 ± 15 and 38 ± 15 min/d, respectively, P < 0.05) and covered a shorter distance per day (3.8 km vs 5.2 km, P < 0.01). Conclusions: BMI and outdoor topography should also be considered when prescribing extra walking in free-living conditions.

How multiple repetitions influence the processing of self-, famous and unknown names and faces: an ERP study.

Because we live in an extremely complex social environment, people require the ability to memorize hundreds or thousands of social stimuli. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of multiple repetitions on the processing of names and faces varying in terms of pre-experimental familiarity. We measured both behavioral and electrophysiological responses to self-, famous and unknown names and faces in three phases of the experiment (in every phase, each type of stimuli was repeated a pre-determined number of times). We found that the negative brain potential in posterior scalp sites observed approximately 170 ms after the stimulus onset (N170) was insensitive to pre-experimental familiarity but showed slight enhancement with each repetition. The negative wave in the inferior-temporal regions observed at approximately 250 ms (N250) was affected by both pre-experimental (famous>unknown) and intra-experimental familiarity (the more repetitions, the larger N250). In addition, N170 and N250 for names were larger in the left inferior-temporal region, whereas right-hemispheric or bilateral patterns of activity for faces were observed. The subsequent presentations of famous and unknown names and faces were also associated with higher amplitudes of the positive waveform in the central-parietal sites analyzed in the 320-900 ms time-window (P300). In contrast, P300 remained unchanged after the subsequent presentations of self-name and self-face. Moreover, the P300 for unknown faces grew more quickly than for unknown names. The latter suggests that the process of learning faces is more effective than learning names, possibly because faces carry more semantic information.

The Influence of Self-fertilization performance and Copulation Behaviour in Reproduction by Cross-fertilization in Groups of Biomphalaria tenagophila (Mollusca, Planorbidae)

The following hypotheses were tested for groups of simultaneous hermaphrodites Biomphalaria tenagophila: (a) snails that have low reproductive success during the process of self-fertilization do not increase their reproductive success after the end of grouping; (b) the copulation behaviour and the presence of one snail whose eggs have a low viability rate influence the partner's reproductive success by cross-fertilization. Groups were constituted by a homozygous pigmented snail and two albinos: one with a viability rate higher than 70% ("good reproducers") and the other less than 10% ("bad reproducers"). All pigmented snails had viability rates higher than 70%. The "good" and "bad" reproducer albino snails had similar copulation behaviour. However, after the end of grouping, the "bad reproducers" continued to have viability rates less than 10% over 30 days. In 100% of the cases that pigmented snails copulated (performing either a male role or simultaneously male and female roles) exclusively with "good" reproducer albinos, they presented high reproductive success (producing, on average of 8.4 pigmented embryos/egg-mass). However, in 100% of the cases that pigmented snails copulated with both partners, the "good" reproducer albino snails produced none or very few embryos (the highest average was 2.2 pigmented embryos/egg-mass). Therefore, the production of viable embryos by cross-fertilization was more influenced by self-fertilization performance than by copulation behaviour. The presence of a snail whose eggs have a low viability rate could decrease their partners reproductive success

Changing Religiosity, Changing Politics? The Influence of 'Belonging' and 'Believing' on Political Attitudes in Switzerland

Starting from theories of secularization and of religious individualization, we propose a two-dimensional typology of religiosity and test its impact on political attitudes. Unlike classic conceptions of religiosity used in political studies, our typology simultaneously accounts for an individual's sense of belonging to the church (institutional dimension) and his/her personal religious beliefs (spiritual dimension). Our analysis, based on data from the World Values Survey in Switzerland (1989-2007), shows two main results. First, next to evidence of religious decline, we also find evidence of religious change with an increase in the number of people who "believe without belonging." Second, non-religious individuals and individuals who believe without belonging are significantly more permissive on issues of cultural liberalism than followers of institutionalized forms of religiosity.