Historical data reveal power-law dispersal patterns of invasive aquatic species

Understanding how invasive species spread is of particular concern in the current era of globalisation and rapid environmental change. The occurrence of super-diffusive movements within the context of Lévy flights has been discussed with respect to particle physics, human movements, microzooplankton, disease spread in global epidemiology and animal foraging behaviour. Super-diffusive movements provide a theoretical explanation for the rapid spread of organisms and disease, but their applicability to empirical data on the historic spread of organisms has rarely been tested. This study focuses on the role of long-distance dispersal in the invasion dynamics of aquatic invasive species across three contrasting areas and spatial scales: open ocean (north-east Atlantic), enclosed sea (Mediterranean) and an island environment (Ireland). Study species included five freshwater plant species, Azolla filiculoides, Elodea canadensis, Lagarosiphon major, Elodea nuttallii and Lemna minuta; and ten species of marine algae, Asparagopsis armata, Antithamnionella elegans, Antithamnionella ternifolia, Codium fragile, Colpomenia peregrina, Caulerpa taxifolia, Dasysiphonia sp., Sargassum muticum, Undaria pinnatifida and Womersleyella setacea. A simulation model is constructed to show the validity of using historical data to reconstruct dispersal kernels. Lévy movement patterns similar to those previously observed in humans and wild animals are evident in the re-constructed dispersal pattern of invasive aquatic species. Such patterns may be widespread among invasive species and could be exacerbated by further development of trade networks, human travel and environmental change. These findings have implications for our ability to predict and manage future invasions, and improve our understanding of the potential for spread of organisms including infectious diseases, plant pests and genetically modified organisms.

"...and they won land among the Picts by friendly treaty or the sword": How a re-examination of early historical sources and an analysis of early medieval settlement in north Co. Antrim confirms the validity of traditional accounts of Dál Riatic migration to Scotland from Ulster

Much recent scholarship has been critical of the concept of a Dál Riatic migration to, or colonisation of, Argyll. Scepticism of the accuracy of the early medieval accounts of this population movement, arguing that these are late amendments to early sources, coupled with an apparent lack of archaeological evidence for such a migration have led to its rejection. It is argued here, however, that this rejection has been based on too narrow a reading of historical sources and that there are several early accounts which, while differing in detail, agree on one point of substance, that the origin of Scottish Dál Riata lies in Ireland. Also, the use of archaeological evidence to suggest no migration to Argyll by the Dál Riata is flawed, misunderstanding the nature of early migrations and how they might be archaeologically identified, and it's proposed that there is actually quite a lot of evidence for migration to Argyll by the Dál Riata, in the form of settlement and artefactural evidence, but that it is to be found in Ireland through the mechanism of counterstream migration, rather than in Scotland.

Financial reintegration assistance for veterans of the Irish revolution (1916-23): post-conflict policy in an historical setting

In the aftermath of the Irish revolution and Civil War the governments of independent Ireland introduced various compensation schemes to provide financial reintegration assistance to revolutionary veterans. This would be recognised today as part of a programme for DDR. This paper will examine various service and disability pensions paid to veterans in the context of literature on post-conflict reintegration. It will examine various challenges to reintegration in an effort to analyse the success of revolutionary compensation as a post-conflict reintegration mechanism in independent Ireland after 1922.

Late Bronze Age casting debris and other base metal finds from Haughey’s Fort

This paper provides a full overview of base metal finds from the excavations conducted at Haughey's Fort between 1987 and 1995. Most of the assemblage consists of waste metal from casting activities relating to the Late Bronze Age occupation of the site. A small minority of objects are of a later date, mostly Iron Age. Both the latter and the vast majority of Late Bronze metal items were recovered from a specific sector of the inner enclosure. Typological parallels, context and chronology of the finds are discussed, and a tentative interpretation of the evidence proposed.

Special condition wind power forecasting based on Gaussian process and similar historical data

Due to the variability of wind power, it is imperative to accurately and timely forecast the wind generation to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the operation and control of real-time power. Special events such as ramps, spikes are hard to predict with traditional methods using solely recently measured data. In this paper, a new Gaussian Process model with hybrid training data taken from both the local time and historic dataset is proposed and applied to make short-term predictions from 10 minutes to one hour ahead. A key idea is that the similar pattern data in history are properly selected and embedded in Gaussian Process model to make predictions. The results of the proposed algorithms are compared to those of standard Gaussian Process model and the persistence model. It is shown that the proposed method not only reduces magnitude error but also phase error.

The Historical Use of Amnesties, Immunities, and Sentence Reductions in Northern Ireland

While it is widely believed that the use of amnesties and similar measures would mark a new departure in NI and the UK, so that speculation about their introduction causes public controversy and threatens political instability, the report demonstrates that such measures have in fact been repeatedly used in a wide range of circumstances since the foundation of the NI state. The paper offers definitions of the key measures which have been employed, including amnesties, sentence reductions linked to peace building and use immunities. It explores their historical use and its consequences.

Historical Dialogue and Memory in Organisational Transition: the case of the Police in Northern Ireland

During Northern Ireland’s transition towards peace the role of the police as an actor in the conflict has been a key point of contention. As such, the reform of policing has been central to conflict transformation. Within this process, the role of dialogue about what policing had been and could be in the future has been vital. Such institutional post violence change processes have been hugely significant in illustrating both organisational resistance to change and the need for transitions to be powerfully manoeuvred through complex, political, organisational and cultural processes (Buchanan and Badham 1999; Pettigrew 2012). The radical and reforming nature of policing transition (Murphy 2013) has been both organisationally challenging (requiring significant transformational leadership, resourcing and external engagement from wider civic society) and politically unusual. Indeed, in a society emerging from violence the NI police are the only public sector organisation to have engaged structurally and culturally in understanding the point at which their core roles intersected with the ‘management’ of the conflict in NI generally. This paper presents an analysis of the role of historical dialogue in organisational change process, using the RUC / PSNI case. It proposes that historical dialogue is not just an external, societal process but also an internal organisational process and as such, has implications for managing institutional change in societies emerging from conflict. In doing so, it builds theoretical links between literature on conflict transformation and that on organisational memory and empirically explores messaging internal to the RUC before and during the four main periods of organisational change (Murphy 2013), with dialogue aimed at an external audience. It offers an analysis of how historical dialogue itself impacts on and is impacted by the organisational realities of change itself.