Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments

This paper assesses the relationship between amount of climate forcing – as indexed by global mean temperature change – and hydrological response in a sample of UK catchments. It constructs climate scenarios representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 21 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a considerable range in impact between the 21 climate models, with – for example - change in summer runoff at a 2oC increase in global mean temperature varying between -40% and +20%. There is evidence of clustering in the results, particularly in projected changes in summer runoff and indicators of low flows, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact, and that the standard deviation of responses does not adequately characterise uncertainty. The uncertainty in hydrological impact is therefore best characterised by considering the shape of the distribution of responses across multiple climate scenarios. For some climate model patterns, and some catchments, there is also evidence that linear climate change forcings produce non-linear hydrological impacts. For most variables and catchments, the effects of climate change are apparent above the effects of natural multi-decadal variability with an increase in global mean temperature above 1oC, but there are differences between catchments. Based on the scenarios represented in the ensemble, the effect of climate change in northern upland catchments will be seen soonest in indicators of high flows, but in southern catchments effects will be apparent soonest in measures of summer and low flows. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation.

Farm forestry in Pakistan: an application of Theory of Planned Behaviour by probing into the measurement issues

A research has been conducted over methodological issues concerning the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) by determining an appropriate measurement (direct and indirect) of constructs and selection of a plausible scaling techniques (unipolar and bipolar) of constructs: attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control and intention that are important in explaining farm level tree planting in Pakistan. Unipolar scoring of beliefs showed higher correlation among the constructs of TPB than bipolar scaling technique. Both direct and indirect methods yielded significant results in explaining intention to perform farm forestry except the belief based measure of perceived behavioural control, which were analysed as statistically non-significant. A need to examine more carefully the scoring of perceived behavioural control (PBC) has been expressed

The growth of private property vehicles in the UK: causes and conditions

The UK private indirect real estate market has seen a rapid growth in the last seven years. The gross asset value (GAV) of the private property vehicle (PPV) market has about tripled from a GAV of £22.6bn in 1998 to a GAV of £67.1 billion at the end of 2005 (OPC, 2006). Although this trend of growing syndication of real estate is not only a UK phenomenon, the rate of growth has been significantly faster in the UK. For example the German open-ended funds have grown over the same period from €50.4bn to €85.1bn (BVI, 2006). In the US the market capitalization of equity real estate investment trusts (REIT) has grown 155% since 1999 to US$ 301bn (NAREIT, 2006). Each jurisdiction is offering different formats to invest indirectly into real estate but at the core all these vehicles are the same in that they provide a different route for investors to access real estate. In the UK, although the range of ‘products’ is now quite diverse, all structures have in common the ‘wrapping’ of property assets into a multi-investor vehicle. This paper examines the nature, pattern and process of market growth in PPVs and constructs a series of associations between causes and effects to explain this market shift.

Land re-use, complexity and actor-networks: a framework for research

This paper will present a conceptual framework for the examination of land redevelopment based on a complex systems/networks approach. As Alvin Toffler insightfully noted, modern scientific enquiry has become exceptionally good at splitting problems into pieces but has forgotten how to put the pieces back together. Twenty-five years after his remarks, governments and corporations faced with the requirements of sustainability are struggling to promote an ‘integrated’ or ‘holistic’ approach to tackling problems. Despite the talk, both practice and research provide few platforms that allow for ‘joined up’ thinking and action. With socio-economic phenomena, such as land redevelopment, promising prospects open up when we assume that their constituents can make up complex systems whose emergent properties are more than the sum of the parts and whose behaviour is inherently difficult to predict. A review of previous research shows that it has mainly focused on idealised, ‘mechanical’ views of property development processes that fail to recognise in full the relationships between actors, the structures created and their emergent qualities. When reality failed to live up to the expectations of these theoretical constructs then somebody had to be blamed for it: planners, developers, politicians. However, from a ‘synthetic’ point of view the agents and networks involved in property development can be seen as constituents of structures that perform complex processes. These structures interact, forming new more complex structures and networks. Redevelopment then can be conceptualised as a process of transformation: a complex system, a ‘dissipative’ structure involving developers, planners, landowners, state agencies etc., unlocks the potential of previously used sites, transforms space towards a higher order of complexity and ‘consumes’ but also ‘creates’ different forms of capital in the process. Analysis of network relations point toward the ‘dualism’ of structure and agency in these processes of system transformation and change. Insights from actor network theory can be conjoined with notions of complexity and chaos to build an understanding of the ways in which actors actively seek to shape these structures and systems, whilst at the same time are recursively shaped by them in their strategies and actions. This approach transcends the blame game and allows for inter-disciplinary inputs to be placed within a broader explanatory framework that does away with many past dichotomies. Better understanding of the interactions between actors and the emergent qualities of the networks they form can improve our comprehension of the complex socio-spatial phenomena that redevelopment comprises. The insights that this framework provides when applied in UK institutional investment into redevelopment are considered to be significant.

Interpretation bias and anxiety in childhood: stability, specificity and longitudinal associations

Background: Biases in the interpretation of ambiguous material are central to cognitive models of anxiety; however, understanding of the association between interpretation and anxiety in childhood is limited. To address this, a prospective investigation of the stability and specificity of anxious cognitions and anxiety and the relationship between these factors was conducted. Method: Sixty-five children (10–11 years) from a community sample completed measures of self-reported anxiety, depression, and conduct problems, and responded to ambiguous stories at three time points over one-year. Results: Individual differences in biases in interpretation of ambiguity (specifically “anticipated distress” and “threat interpretation”) were stable over time. Furthermore, anticipated distress and threat interpretation were specifically associated with anxiety symptoms. Distress anticipation predicted change in anxiety symptoms over time. In contrast, anxiety scores predicted change in threat interpretation over time. Conclusions: The results suggest that different cognitive constructs may show different longitudinal links with anxiety. These preliminary findings extend research and theory on anxious cognitions and their link with anxiety in children, and suggest that these cognitive processes may be valuable targets for assessment and intervention.

Investigating familiar interfaces to help older adults learn computer applications more easily

Many older adults wish to gain competence in using a computer, but many application interfaces are perceived as complex and difficult to use, deterring potential users from investing the time to learn them. Hence, this study looks at the potential of ‘familiar’ interface design which builds upon users’ knowledge of real world interactions, and applies existing skills to a new domain. Tools are provided in the form of familiar visual objects, and manipulated like real-world counterparts, rather than with buttons, icons and menus found in classic WIMP interfaces. This paper describes the formative evaluation of computer interactions that are based upon familiar real world tasks, which supports multitouch interaction, involves few buttons and icons, no menus, no right-clicks or double-clicks and no dialogs. Using an example of an email client to test the principles of using “familiarity”, the initial feedback was very encouraging, with 3 of the 4 participants being able to undertake some of the basic email tasks with no prior training and little or no help. The feedback has informed a number of refinements of the design principles, such as providing clearer affordance for visual objects. A full study is currently underway.

A 3D cloud-construction algorithm for the EarthCARE satellite mission

This article presents and assesses an algorithm that constructs 3D distributions of cloud from passive satellite imagery and collocated 2D nadir profiles of cloud properties inferred synergistically from lidar, cloud radar and imager data. It effectively widens the active–passive retrieved cross-section (RXS) of cloud properties, thereby enabling computation of radiative fluxes and radiances that can be compared with measured values in an attempt to perform radiative closure experiments that aim to assess the RXS. For this introductory study, A-train data were used to verify the scene-construction algorithm and only 1D radiative transfer calculations were performed. The construction algorithm fills off-RXS recipient pixels by computing sums of squared differences (a cost function F) between their spectral radiances and those of potential donor pixels/columns on the RXS. Of the RXS pixels with F lower than a certain value, the one with the smallest Euclidean distance to the recipient pixel is designated as the donor, and its retrieved cloud properties and other attributes such as 1D radiative heating rates are consigned to the recipient. It is shown that both the RXS itself and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery can be reconstructed extremely well using just visible and thermal infrared channels. Suitable donors usually lie within 10 km of the recipient. RXSs and their associated radiative heating profiles are reconstructed best for extensive planar clouds and less reliably for broken convective clouds. Domain-average 1D broadband radiative fluxes at the top of theatmosphere(TOA)for (21 km)2 domains constructed from MODIS, CloudSat andCloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data agree well with coincidental values derived from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiances: differences betweenmodelled and measured reflected shortwave fluxes are within±10Wm−2 for∼35% of the several hundred domains constructed for eight orbits. Correspondingly, for outgoing longwave radiation∼65% are within ±10Wm−2.

Eliciting consumer preferences for certified animal-friendly foods: can elements of the theory of planned behavior improve choice experiment analysis?

Models used in neoclassical economics assume human behaviour to be purely rational. On the other hand, models adopted in social and behavioural psychology are founded on the ‘black box’ of human cognition. In view of these observations, this paper aims at bridging this gap by introducing psychological constructs in the well established microeconomic framework of choice behaviour based on random utility theory. In particular, it combines constructs developed employing Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour with Lancaster’s theory of consumer demand for product characteristics to explain stated preferences over certified animal-friendly foods. To reach this objective a web survey was administered in the largest five EU-25 countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Findings identify some salient cross-cultural differences between northern and southern Europe and suggest that psychological constructs developed using the Ajzen model are useful in explaining heterogeneity of preferences. Implications for policy makers and marketers involved with certified animal-friendly foods are discussed.

Ex vivo expansion of limbal stem cells is affected by substrate properties

Limbal epithelial stem cells play a key role in the maintenance and regulation of the corneal surface. Damage or destruction of these cells results in vascularisation and corneal opacity. Subsequent limbal stem cell transplantation requires an ex vivo expansion step and preserving cells in an undifferentiated state remains vital. In this report we seek to control the phenotype of limbal epithelial stem cells by the novel application of compressed collagen substrates. We have characterised the mechanical and surface properties of conventional collagen gels using shear rheology and scanning electron microscopy. In doing so, we provide evidence to show that compressive load can improve the stiffness of collagen substrates. In addition Western blotting and immunohistochemistry display increased cytokeratin 3 (CK3) protein expression relating to limbal epithelial cell differentiation on stiff collagen substrates. Such gels with an elastic modulus of 2900 Pa supported a significantly higher number of cells than less stiff collagen gels (3 Pa). These findings have substantial influence in the development of ocular surface constructs or experimental models particularly in the fields of stem cell research, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.

To reduce and not to reduce resource consumption? That is two questions

Recent research shows that because they rely on separate goals, cognitions about not performing a behaviour are not simple opposites of cognitions about performing the same behaviour. Using this perspective, two studies (N = 758 & N = 104) examined the psycho-social determinants of reduction in resource consumption. Results showed that goals associated with reducing versus not reducing resource consumption were not simple opposites (Study 1). Additionally, the discriminant validity of the Theory of Planned Behaviour constructs associated with reducing versus not reducing resource consumption was demonstrated (Study 1 & 2). Moreover, results revealed the incremental validity of both Intentions (to reduce and to not reduce resource consumption) for predicting a series of behaviours (Study 1 & 2). Finally, results indicated a mediation role for the importance of ecological dimensions on the effect of both Intentions on a mock TV choice and a mediation role for the importance of non ecological dimensions on the effect of Intention of not reducing on the same TV choice. Discussion is organized around the consequences, at both theoretical and applied levels, of considering separate motivational systems for reducing and not reducing resource consumption.

Statistical monitoring of student performance: an early warning system

Weekly monitoring of profiles of student performances on formative and summative coursework throughout the year can be used to quickly identify those who need additional help, possibly due to acute and sudden-onset problems. Such an early-warning system can help retention, but also assist students in overcoming problems early on, thus helping them fulfil their potential in the long run. We have developed a simple approach for the automatic monitoring of student mark profiles for individual modules, which we intend to trial in the near future. Its ease of implementation means that it can be used for very large cohorts with little additional effort when marks are already collected and recorded on a spreadsheet.

Home-ownership for future generations

This paper constructs a housing market model to analyse conditions for different generations of households in the UK. Previous policy work has suggested that baby-boomers have benefitted at the expense of younger generations. The model relies on a form of financial accelerator in which existing homeowners reinvest a proportion of the capital gains on moving home. The model is extended to look at homeownership probabilities. It also explains why an increasing share of mortgages has gone to existing owners, despite market liberalisation and securitisation. In addition, the model contributes to the explanation of volatility.

Construction management research at the individual-level of analysis: current status, gaps and future directions

Individual-level constructs are seldom taken into consideration in construction management research relating to project performance. This is antithetical to the objectives of properly conceptualizing and contextualizing the research we do because many project performance outcomes, such as the extent of cooperation and level of communication or teamwork are influenced and moderated by individuals’ perceptions, values and behaviour. A brief review of the literature in organizational studies centred on culture, identity, empowerment and trust is offered. These constructs are then explored in relation to project performance issues and outcomes, and it is noted that they are predominantly studied at the project and industry levels. We argue that focusing these constructs at the individual unit of analysis has significant implications for project performance and therefore their effects need to be systematically accounted for in explanations of the success and failure of projects. Far from being prescriptive, the aim is to generate interest and awareness for more focused research at the individual level of analysis in order to add new insights and perspectives to critical performance questions in construction management. To this end, a research agenda is outlined, arguing that construction management research integrating individual-level constructs and broader, macro-contextual issues will help define and enhance the legitimacy of the field.

Winckelmann and the invention of antiquity: history and aesthetics in the age of Altertumswissenschaft

This volume provides a new perspective on the emergence of the modern study of antiquity, Altertumswissenschaft, in eighteenth-century Germany through an exploration of debates that arose over the work of the art historian Johann Joachim Winckelmann between his death in 1768 and the end of the century. This period has long been recognised as particularly formative for the development of modern classical studies, and over the past few decades has received increased attention from historians of scholarship and of ideas. Winckelmann's eloquent articulation of the cultural and aesthetic value of studying the ancient Greeks, his adumbration of a new method for studying ancient artworks, and his provision of a model of cultural-historical development in terms of a succession of period styles, influenced both the public and intra-disciplinary self-image of classics long into the twentieth century. Yet this area of Winckelmann's Nachleben has received relatively little attention compared with the proliferation of studies concerning his importance for late eighteenth-century German art and literature, for historians of sexuality, and his traditional status as a 'founder figure' within the academic disciplines of classical archaeology and the history of art. Harloe restores the figure of Winckelmann to classicists' understanding of the history of their own discipline and uses debates between important figures, such as Christian Gottlob Heyne, Friedrich August Wolf, and Johann Gottfried Herder, to cast fresh light upon the emergence of the modern paradigm of classics as Altertumswissenschaft: the multi-disciplinary, comprehensive, and historicizing study of the ancient world.

Exploring unanticipated consequences of strategy amongst stakeholder segments: the case of a European Revenue Service

This article applies FIMIX-PLS segmentation methodology to detect and explore unanticipated reactions to organisational strategy among stakeholder segments. For many large organisations today, the tendency to apply a “one-size-fits-all” strategy to members of a stakeholder population, commonly driven by a desire for simplicity, efficiency and fairness, may actually result in unanticipated consequences amongst specific subgroups within the target population. This study argues that it is critical for organisations to understand the varying and potentially harmful effects of strategic actions across differing, and previously unidentified, segments within a stakeholder population. The case of a European revenue service that currently focuses its strategic actions on building trust and compliant behaviour amongst taxpayers is used as the context for this study. FIMIX-PLS analysis is applied to a sample of 501 individual taxpayers, while a novel PLS-based approach for assessing measurement model invariance that can be applied to both reflective and formative measures is also introduced for the purpose of multi-group comparisons. The findings suggest that individual taxpayers can be split into two equal-sized segments with highly differentiated characteristics and reactions to organisational strategy and communications. Compliant behaviour in the first segment (n = 223), labelled “relationships centred on trust,” is mainly driven through positive service experiences and judgements of competence, while judgements of benevolence lead to the unanticipated reaction of increasing distrust among this group. Conversely, compliant behaviour in the second segment (n = 278), labelled “relationships centred on distrust,” is driven by the reduction of fear and scepticism towards the revenue service, which is achieved through signalling benevolence, reduced enforcement and the lower incidence of negative stories. In this segment, the use of enforcement has the unanticipated and counterproductive effect of ultimately reducing compliant behaviour.