888 resultados para Forecasting accuracy
Resumo:
A variety of research has documented high levels of depression among older adults in the health care setting. Additional research has shown that care providers in health care settings are not very effective at diagnosing comorbid depression.This is a troublesome finding since comorbid depression has been linked to a number of negative outcomes in older adults. Early results have indicated that comorbid depression may be associated with a number of unfavorable consequences ranging from impairments in physical functioning to increased mortality.The health care setting with arguably the highest rate of physical impairment is the nursing home and it is the nursing home where the effects of comorbid depression may be most costly. Therefore, the current analysis uses data from the Institutional Population Component of the NationalMedical Expenditure Survey (US Department of Health and Human Services, 1990) to explore rates of both recognized and unrecognized comorbid depression in the nursing home setting. Using a constructed proxy variable representative of the DSM-III-R diagnosis of depression, results indicate that approximately 8.1% of nursing home residents have an unrecognized potential comorbid depression.
Resumo:
Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.
High accuracy alignment facility for the receiver and transmitter of the BepiColombo Laser Altimeter
Resumo:
The accurate co-alignment of the transmitter to the receiver of the BepiColombo Laser Altimeter is a challenging task for which an original alignment concept had to be developed. We present here the design, construction and testing of a large collimator facility built to fulfill the tight alignment requirements. We describe in detail the solution found to attenuate the high energy of the instrument laser transmitter by an original beam splitting pentaprism group. We list the different steps of the calibration of the alignment facility and estimate the errors made at each of these steps. We finally prove that the current facility is ready for the alignment of the flight instrument. Its angular accuracy is 23 μrad.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Ilioinguinal and iliohypogastric nerve blocks may be used in the diagnosis of chronic groin pain or for analgesia for hernia repair. This study describes a new ultrasound-guided approach to these nerves and determines its accuracy using anatomical dissection control. METHODS: After having tested the new method in a pilot cadaver, 10 additional embalmed cadavers were used to perform 37 ultrasound-guided blocks of the ilioinguinal and iliohypogastric nerve. After injection of 0.1 ml of dye the cadavers were dissected to evaluate needle position and colouring of the nerves. RESULTS: Thirty-three of the thirty-seven needle tips were located at the exact target point, in or directly at the ilioinguinal or iliohypogastric nerve. In all these cases the targeted nerve was coloured entirely. In two of the remaining four cases parts of the nerves were coloured. This corresponds to a simulated block success rate of 95%. In contrast to the standard 'blind' techniques of inguinal nerve blocks we visualized and targeted the nerves 5 cm cranial and posterior to the anterior superior iliac spine. The median diameters of the nerves measured by ultrasound were: ilioinguinal 3.0x1.6 mm, and iliohypogastric 2.9x1.6 mm. The median distance of the ilioinguinal nerve to the iliac bone was 6.0 mm and the distance between the two nerves was 10.4 mm. CONCLUSIONS: The anatomical dissections confirmed that our new ultrasound-guided approach to the ilioinguinal and iliohypogastric nerve is accurate. Ultrasound could become an attractive alternative to the 'blind' standard techniques of ilioinguinal and iliohypogastric nerve block in pain medicine and anaesthetic practice.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES: To determine sample sizes in studies on diagnostic accuracy and the proportion of studies that report calculations of sample size. DESIGN: Literature survey. DATA SOURCES: All issues of eight leading journals published in 2002. METHODS: Sample sizes, number of subgroup analyses, and how often studies reported calculations of sample size were extracted. RESULTS: 43 of 8999 articles were non-screening studies on diagnostic accuracy. The median sample size was 118 (interquartile range 71-350) and the median prevalence of the target condition was 43% (27-61%). The median number of patients with the target condition--needed to calculate a test's sensitivity--was 49 (28-91). The median number of patients without the target condition--needed to determine a test's specificity--was 76 (27-209). Two of the 43 studies (5%) reported a priori calculations of sample size. Twenty articles (47%) reported results for patient subgroups. The number of subgroups ranged from two to 19 (median four). No studies reported that sample size was calculated on the basis of preplanned analyses of subgroups. CONCLUSION: Few studies on diagnostic accuracy report considerations of sample size. The number of participants in most studies on diagnostic accuracy is probably too small to analyse variability of measures of accuracy across patient subgroups.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging criteria for the early diagnosis of multiple sclerosis in patients with suspected disease. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: 12 electronic databases, citation searches, and reference lists of included studies. Review methods Studies on accuracy of diagnosis that compared magnetic resonance imaging, or diagnostic criteria incorporating such imaging, to a reference standard for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. RESULTS: 29 studies (18 cohort studies, 11 other designs) were included. On average, studies of other designs (mainly diagnostic case-control studies) produced higher estimated diagnostic odds ratios than did cohort studies. Among 15 studies of higher methodological quality (cohort design, clinical follow-up as reference standard), those with longer follow-up produced higher estimates of specificity and lower estimates of sensitivity. Only two such studies followed patients for more than 10 years. Even in the presence of many lesions (> 10 or > 8), magnetic resonance imaging could not accurately rule multiple sclerosis in (likelihood ratio of a positive test result 3.0 and 2.0, respectively). Similarly, the absence of lesions was of limited utility in ruling out a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (likelihood ratio of a negative test result 0.1 and 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Many evaluations of the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the early detection of multiple sclerosis have produced inflated estimates of test performance owing to methodological weaknesses. Use of magnetic resonance imaging to confirm multiple sclerosis on the basis of a single attack of neurological dysfunction may lead to over-diagnosis and over-treatment.
Resumo:
The positive and negative predictive value are standard measures used to quantify the predictive accuracy of binary biomarkers when the outcome being predicted is also binary. When the biomarkers are instead being used to predict a failure time outcome, there is no standard way of quantifying predictive accuracy. We propose a natural extension of the traditional predictive values to accommodate censored survival data. We discuss not only quantifying predictive accuracy using these extended predictive values, but also rigorously comparing the accuracy of two biomarkers in terms of their predictive values. Using a marginal regression framework, we describe how to estimate differences in predictive accuracy and how to test whether the observed difference is statistically significant.
Resumo:
Introduction: Preoperative chemoradiotherapy is generally recommended for locally advanced esophageal cancer (clinical stage T3 or T4 or nodal positive disease) but not for early cancer (clinical stage T0 to T2, N0). EUS has been described as the most accurate method to distinguish between early and locally advanced stage in several studies. Recently however, the high accuracy of EUS (90% or higher) was questioned by some investigators. This raises the issue whether the results of studies focused on EUS accuracy may be directly translated into daily clinical practice. Aim & Methods: The aim of this retrospective analysis was to assess the accuracy of preoperative EUS to distinguish between early and locally advanced esophageal cancer in daily clinical practice outside a study setting. EUS was performed by several investigators, including trainees in one university hospital. For this purpose, EUS reports and patient files (medical and surgical) including histological reports of 300 consecutive pts with esophageal tumors were reviewed. In pts with adenocarcinoma or squamous cell cancer and surgical resection without previous radio-/chemotherapy, EUS tumor staging was compared with histological diagnosis. Results: Out of the 300 consecutive pts with esophageal tumor and EUS 102 pts had esophageal surgery after EUS-staging without any radio-/chemotherapy. In 93 pts oesophageal cancer was confirmed, whereas 9 had other tumors. The mean age was 65 years (range 27-89), sex ratio female:male was 1:3.2. To distinguish between early and late tumor stage, the accuracy was 85%. The sensitivity and specificity for early cancer was 59%, and 93%, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy for local tumor spread was 90%, 90%, 68%, 69%, 89% for pT0, pT1, pT2, pT3 and pT4 lesions, respectively. The overall accuracy for T-stage was 74%. For pN-positive staging the accuracy of EUS was 73%. Conclusion: In daily clinical practice, the accuracy of EUS in assessing esophageal tumor staging is lower than in specific studies focusing on EUS accuracy. Mainly early esophageal cancer stages were overstaged. Thus, the implementation of recommendations for diagnostic work-up of esophageal cancer patients resulting from highly specific studies should consider the appropriate clinical setting.
Resumo:
A total knee arthroplasty performed with navigation results in more accurate component positioning with fewer outliers. It is not known whether image-based or image-free-systems are preferable and if navigation for only one component leads to equal accuracy in leg alignment than navigation of both components. We evaluated the results of total knee arthroplasties performed with femoral navigation. We studied 90 knees in 88 patients who had conventional total knee arthroplasties, image-based total knee arthroplasties, or total knee arthroplasties with image-free navigation. We compared patients' perioperative times, component alignment accuracy, and short-term outcomes. The total surgical time was longer in the image-based total knee arthroplasty group (109 +/- 7 minutes) compared with the image-free (101 +/- 17 minutes) and conventional total knee arthroplasty groups (87 +/- 20 minutes). The mechanical axis of the leg was within 3 degrees of neutral alignment, although the conventional total knee arthroplasty group showed more (10.6 degrees ) variance than the navigated groups (5.8 degrees and 6.4 degrees , respectively). We found a positive correlation between femoral component malalignment and the total mechanical axis in the conventional group. Our results suggest image-based navigation is not necessary, and image-free femoral navigation may be sufficient for accurate component alignment.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of coronary binary in-stent restenosis (ISR) with angiography using 64-slice multislice computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) compared with invasive coronary angiography (ICA). BACKGROUND: A noninvasive detection of ISR would result in an easier and safer way to conduct patient follow-up. METHODS: We performed CTCA in 81 patients after stent implantation, and 125 stented lesions were scanned. Two sets of images were reconstructed with different types of convolution kernels. On CTCA, neointimal proliferation was visually evaluated according to luminal contrast attenuation inside the stent. Lesions were graded as follows: grade 1, none or slight neointimal proliferation; grade 2, neointimal proliferation with no significant stenosis (<50%); grade 3, neointimal proliferation with moderate stenosis (> or =50%); and grade 4, neointimal proliferation with severe stenosis (> or =75%). Grades 3 and 4 were considered binary ISR. The diagnostic accuracy of CTCA compared with ICA was evaluated. RESULTS: By ICA, 24 ISRs were diagnosed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 92%, 81%, 54%, and 98% for the overall population, whereas values were 91%, 93%, 77%, and 98% when excluding unassessable segments (15 segments, 12%). For assessable segments, CTCA correctly diagnosed 20 of the 22 ISRs detected by ICA. Six lesions without ISR were overestimated as ISR by CTCA. As the grade of neointimal proliferation by CTCA increases, the median value of percent diameter stenosis increased linearly. CONCLUSIONS: Binary ISR can be excluded with high probability by CTCA, with a moderate rate of false-positive results.