Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Mapping of summer crops in the State of Paraná, Brazil, through the 10-day spot vegetation NDVI composites

The search for low subjectivity area estimates has increased the use of remote sensing for agricultural monitoring and crop yield prediction, leading to more flexibility in data acquisition and lower costs comparing to traditional methods such as census and surveys. Low spatial resolution satellite images with higher frequency in image acquisition have shown to be adequate for cropland mapping and monitoring in large areas. The main goal of this study was to map the Summer crops in the State of Paraná, Brazil, using 10-day composition of NDVI SPOT Vegetation data for 2005/2006, 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 cropping seasons. For this, a supervised digital classification method with Parallelepiped algorithm in multitemporal RGB image composites was used, in order to generate masks of Summer cultures for each 10-day composition. Accuracy assessment was performed using Kappa index, overall accuracy and Willmott's concordance index, resulting in good levels of accuracy. This methodology allowed the accomplishment, with free and low resolution data, of the mapping of Summer cultures at State level.

Coffea arabica (cv Catuaí) production and bean size under different population arrangements and soil water availability

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effect of drip irrigation under different population arrangements on the phytometric features, coffee productivity and bean size classification according to sieve retention. The experiment with Coffea arabica L. cv Catuaí was carried out in Mococa, São Paulo, Brazil. The experimental design was a 6 x 2 factorial scheme in randomized blocks, with four replications. The six densities of plantation were E1 (1.60 x 0.50 m); E2 (1.60 x 0.75 m); E3 (1.60 x 1.00 m); E4 (3.20 x 0.50 m); E5 (3.20 x 0.75 m) and E6 (3.20 x 1.00 m), which were divided according to the availability of water (irrigated - I - or non-irrigated - NI - groups). Data were submitted to analysis of variance and averages compared by Tukey test at 1 and 5% of probability. Descriptive analysis of coffee beans according to sieve classification was performed. Irrigation promoted an increase in plant height, crown diameter and production of processed coffee when compared with the NI group. Interaction between population arrangement and irrigation was observed, with an increase in production and crown diameter as the spacing was decreased. Therefore, irrigation provided significant increase in coffee bean size.

Fragment size of corn silage according to the dry matter and forage harvester adjustments

In Brazil, the best results in milk production are found in the state of Paraná. Such results are reached through genetic selection of the animals and management of their diets, in which whole plant corn silage is widely used. Aiming the silage quality, it was evaluated the influence of dry matter content of the corn culture as forage and the harvester adjustments on the fragment size of whole plant corn silage. The fragment size of two corn hybrids silage (SPEED and 2B688) was evaluated using a 5x3 factorial, with 4 repetitions. The first factor was the harvest time of the plants (105, 108, 112, 118, and 123 days after sowing (DAS)), which determines the forage dry matter (DM) content. The second factor was the harvester adjustments (2, 6.5 and 11mm of theoretical fragment length (TFL)). The DM content did not affect the average fragment size of 2B688. For SPEED, however, the real fragment size decreased as the maturation of plants increased. The conclusion is that the DM content and harvester adjustments can affect the real fragment sizes, according to different plant genotypes. The alterations of the harvester adjustments resulted in different fragment sizes, however, it were different from those indicated by the manufacturer.

Quality of peanut mechanical sowing in function of seeding density and size of the seeds

ABSTRACTPeanut crop (Arachis hypogaeaL.) mechanization has been improved over the years; however there are drawbacks that affect the quality of operations. Thus, this article’s objectives were to evaluate the operational performance of the mechanized sowing of peanut crop according to seeding densities (10, 14, and 18 seeds m-1) and seed sizes (21 and 23 mm). It was observed that the seeds of 23 mm had shorter average number of days to emergence and a higher percentage of emergences, occurring the opposite to the seeding density of 18 seeds m-1. The higher the seeding density, the largest was the plant stand, whereas the 23 mm seed obtained the best results and the same with the seeding density of 14 seeds m-1 that had a higher percentage of normal spacing. The densities of 14 and 18 seeds m-1 reflected in higher yields, being always superior to the 23 mm seeds.

Hiperplasia nodular focal múltipla do fígado: subtipo misto hiperplásico/adenomatoso

Focal Nodular Hyperplasia is a benign lesion of the liver, which usually presents with one or two localizations. We report the uncommon case of a 51-year-old female who presents with right upper quadrant pain that worsened in the previous month, without association with feeding. Four hepatic lesions were evidenced at Computerized tomography, the largest being of 8 cm in diameter, of atypical behavior. She was submitted to hepatic segmentectomy of the segment III. The pathologic diagnosis returned focal nodular hyperplasia mixed hyperplastic and adenomatous sub-type. The patient had a good postoperative evolution and is in ambulatory follow-up.

Focal symmetrical encephalomalacia in sheep

Focal symmetrical encephalomalacia (FSE) is the most prominent lesion seen in the chronic form of enterotoxemia by Clostridium perfringens type D. This paper reports FSE in sheep in Brazil. Six deaths occurred within a seven days period in a flock of 70, four to 30-month-old Santa Inês sheep in the state of Paraíba in the Brazilian semiarid. The flock was grazing a paddock of irrigated sprouting Cynodon dactylon (Tifton grass), and supplemented, ad libitum, with a concentrate of soybean, corn and wheat. Nervous signs included blindness and recumbence. A 19 month-old sheep was examined clinically and necropsied after a clinical course of three days. Gross lesions were herniation of the cerebellar vermis and multifocal, bilateral, symmetric brownish areas in the internal capsule, thalamus and cerebellar peduncles. Histologic lesions were multifocal, bilateral malacia with some neutrophils, swelling of blood vessels endothelium, perivascular edema, and hemorrhages. The flock was vaccinated, before the outbreak, with only one dose of Clostridium perfringens type D vaccine. Two factors are suggested to be important for the occurrence of the disease: insufficient immunity due to the incorrect vaccination; and high nutritional levels by the supplementation with highly fermentable carbohydrates.

Follicle and corpus luteum size and vascularity as predictors of fertility at the time of artificial insemination and embryo transfer in beef cattle

Abstract:Two ultrasound based fertility prediction methods were tested prior to embryo transfer (ET) and artificial insemination (AI) in cattle. Female bovines were submitted to estrous synchronization prior to ET and AI. Animals were scanned immediately before ET and AI procedure to target follicle and corpus luteum (CL) size and vascularity. In addition, inseminated animals were also scanned eleven days after insemination to target CL size and vascularity. All data was compared with fertility by using gestational diagnosis 35 days after ovulation. Prior to ET, CL vascularity showed a positive correlation with fertility, and no pregnancy occurred in animals with less than 40% of CL vascularity. Prior to AI and also eleven days after AI, no relationship with fertility was seen in all parameters analyzed (follicle and CL size and vascularity), and contrary, cows with CL vascularity greater than 70% exhibit lower fertility. In inseminated animals, follicle size and vascularity was positive related with CL size and vascularity, as shown by the presence of greater CL size and vascularity originated from follicle with also greater size and vascularity. This is the first time that ultrasound based fertility prediction methods were tested prior to ET and AI and showed an application in ET, but not in AI programs. Further studies are needed including hormone profile evaluation to improve conclusion.

Cardiothoracic ratio and vertebral heart size (VHS) to standardize the heart size of the tufted capuchin (Cebus apella Linnaeus, 1758) in computerized radiographic images

Abstract: The VHS and CTR were assessed using computerized thoracic radiographs of ten clinically healthy tufted capuchin monkeys (five males and five females) from the Wild Animal Screening Center in São Luís (Centro de Triagem de Animais Silvestres de São Luís-MA-CETAS). Radiographs were taken in laterolateral and dorsoventral projections to calculate the cardiothoracic ratio (VHS) and vertebral heart size (CTR). The VHS showed mean values of 9.34±0.32v (males) and 9.16±0.34v (females) and there was no statistical difference between males and females (p>0.05). The CTR showed mean values of 0.55±0.04 (males) and 0.52±0.03 (females) and there was no statistical difference between the sexes (p>0.05). There was positive correlation between VHS and CTR (r=0.78). The thoracic and heart diameters showed mean values of 5.70±0.48cm and 2.16±0.40cm in the males, respectively. In the females they measured 5.32±0.39cm and 2.94±0.32cm. There was no statistical difference between the sexes. Our results show that the high correlation found between VHS and CTR permitted the verification with similar clinical precision between the two methods to estimate alterations in the heart silhouette by radiographic examination of tufted capuchin, making it an easy technique to apply that can be considered in the investigation of heart problems for this wild species.

Is there correlation between the turbulent eddies size and mechanical hemolysis ?

Hemolytic profile of an artificial device chronically implanted in the cardiovascular system may represent the difference between the success and failure in its long-term performance. Last decades have witnessed efforts on the development of methods capable of predicting red blood cell damage in artificial organs. However, all of them have had limited success to predict hemolysis. The primary cause of this problem is that such models do not take into consideration structures of turbulent flow. The present paper demonstrates that microscopic measurable occurrences of the turbulent flow may be linked to red blood cell trauma. This study suggests that if the smallest turbulent eddies dimension is under 10 m m hemolysis is not dependent on the exposure time and the red blood cells damage depends only on the dissipation of the turbulent energy in the erythrocyte membrane. The analysis reported here opens the possibility of mapping the flow field in artificial assist devices based on the smallest eddy length scales. This is a promising new trend and should be considered in the designing requirements of the next generations of artificial organs.

Drop Size Measurements in a Laboratory Scale Venturi Scrubber

Venturi scrubbers are high efficiency gas cleaners in which suspended particles are removed from gas streams by droplets formed by liquid atomisation, usually in the venturi throat. The size of the droplets formed is of fundamental importance to the performance of the equipment, both in terms of pressure drop and collection efficiency. In this study, drop sizes in a cylindrical laboratory scale venturi scrubber were measured using a laser diffraction technique. Gas velocity and liquid to gas ratios varied from 50 to 90 m/s and 0.5 to 2.0 l/m3, respectively. Water was inserted as perpendicular jets at the beginning of the throat. Measurements were performed at three positions: two located along the throat, and the last one at the end of the diffuser. The data presented here are a typical example of pneumatic atomisation and can be relevant to other industrial applications such as combustion and engine technology. Finally, results are compared to available correlations and the validity of these equations is discussed.

Horizontal Slug Flow in a Large-Size Pipeline: Experimentation and Modeling

The knowledge of the slug flow characteristics is very important when designing pipelines and process equipment. When the intermittences typical in slug flow occurs, the fluctuations of the flow variables bring additional concern to the designer. Focusing on this subject the present work discloses the experimental data on slug flow characteristics occurring in a large-size, large-scale facility. The results were compared with data provided by mechanistic slug flow models in order to verify their reliability when modelling actual flow conditions. Experiments were done with natural gas and oil or water as the liquid phase. To compute the frequency and velocity of the slug cell and to calculate the length of the elongated bubble and liquid slug one used two pressure transducers measuring the pressure drop across the pipe diameter at different axial locations. A third pressure transducer measured the pressure drop between two axial location 200 m apart. The experimental data were compared with results of Camargo's1 algorithm (1991, 1993), which uses the basics of Dukler & Hubbard's (1975) slug flow model, and those calculated by the transient two-phase flow simulator OLGA.

Russia, China, India Foresight for Small and Medium size Enterprises in Uusimaa : Changes forecast in the Russian, Chinese and Indian operating environments from the viewpoint of small and middle-sized enterprises in Uusimaa

The report describes those factors of the future that are related to the growth and needs of Russia, China, and India and that may provide significant internationalisation potential for Uusimaa companies. The report examines the emerging trends and market-entry challenges for each country separately. Additionally, it evaluates the training needs of Uusimaa companies in terms of the current offerings available for education on topics related to Russia, China, and India. The report was created via the Delphi method: experts were interviewed, and both Trendwiki material and the latest literature were used to create a summary of experts’ views, statements, and reasons behind recent developments. This summary of views was sent back to the experts with the objective of reaching consensus synthesising the differing views or, at least, of providing argumentation for the various alternative lines of development. In addition to a number of outside experts and business leaders, all heads of Finpro’s Finland Trade Centers participated in the initial interviews. The summary was commented upon by all Finpro consultants and analysts for Russia, China, and India, with each focusing on his or her own area of expertise. The literature used consisted of reports, listed for each country, and an extensive selection of the most recent newspaper articles. The report was created in January-April 2010. On 22 April 2010 its results were reviewed at the final report presentation in cooperation with the Uusimaa ELY Centre.

Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.