The use of mathematical modelling in fire safety engineering

Fire is a form of uncontrolled combustion which generates heat, smoke, toxic and irritant gases. All of these products are harmful to man and account for the heavy annual cost of 800 lives and £1,000,000,000 worth of property damage in Britain alone. The new discipline of Fire Safety Engineering has developed as a means of reducing these unacceptable losses. One of the main tools of Fire Safety Engineering is the mathematical model and over the past 15 years a number of mathematical models have emerged to cater for the needs of this discipline. Part of the difficulty faced by the Fire Safety Engineer is the selection of the most appropriate modelling tool to use for the job. To make an informed choice it is essential to have a good understanding of the various modelling approaches, their capabilities and limitations. In this paper some of the fundamental modelling tools used to predict fire and evacuation are investigated as are the issues associated with their use and recent developments in modelling technology.

The FIREDASS (Fire Detection and Suppression Simulation) Model

The FIREDASS (FIRE Detection And Suppression Simulation) project is concerned with the development of fine water mist systems as a possible replacement for the halon fire suppression system currently used in aircraft cargo holds. The project is funded by the European Commission, under the BRITE EURAM programme. The FIREDASS consortium is made up of a combination of Industrial, Academic, Research and Regulatory partners. As part of this programme of work, a computational model has been developed to help engineers optimise the design of the water mist suppression system. This computational model is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and is composed of the following components: fire model; mist model; two-phase radiation model; suppression model and detector/activation model. The fire model - developed by the University of Greenwich - uses prescribed release rates for heat and gaseous combustion products to represent the fire load. Typical release rates have been determined through experimentation conducted by SINTEF. The mist model - developed by the University of Greenwich - is a Lagrangian particle tracking procedure that is fully coupled to both the gas phase and the radiation field. The radiation model - developed by the National Technical University of Athens - is described using a six-flux radiation model. The suppression model - developed by SINTEF and the University of Greenwich - is based on an extinguishment crietrion that relies on oxygen concentration and temperature. The detector/ activation model - developed by Cerberus - allows the configuration of many different detector and mist configurations to be tested within the computational model. These sub-models have been integrated by the University of Greenwich into the FIREDASS software package. The model has been validated using data from the SINTEF/GEC test campaigns and it has been found that the computational model gives good agreement with these experimental results. The best agreement is obtained at the ceiling which is where the detectors and misting nozzles would be located in a real system. In this paper the model is briefly described and some results from the validation of the fire and mist model are presented.

Enhancing the numerical performance of fire field models (CMS Paper)

This paper describes two new techniques designed to enhance the performance of fire field modelling software. The two techniques are "group solvers" and automated dynamic control of the solution process, both of which are currently under development within the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics environment. The "group solver" is a derivation of common solver techniques used to obtain numerical solutions to the algebraic equations associated with fire field modelling. The purpose of "group solvers" is to reduce the computational overheads associated with traditional numerical solvers typically used in fire field modelling applications. In an example, discussed in this paper, the group solver is shown to provide a 37% saving in computational time compared with a traditional solver. The second technique is the automated dynamic control of the solution process, which is achieved through the use of artificial intelligence techniques. This is designed to improve the convergence capabilities of the software while further decreasing the computational overheads. The technique automatically controls solver relaxation using an integrated production rule engine with a blackboard to monitor and implement the required control changes during solution processing. Initial results for a two-dimensional fire simulation are presented that demonstrate the potential for considerable savings in simulation run-times when compared with control sets from various sources. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential for enhanced solution reliability due to obtaining acceptable convergence within each time step, unlike some of the comparison simulations.

Evaluation of vegetation recovery after fire: a case study in Calde, central region of Portugal

Remote Sensing has been used for decades, and more and more applications are added to its repertoire. With this study we aim to show the use of Remote Sensing in the field of vegetation recovery monitoring in burned areas and the added value of data with a high spatial resolution. This was done by analysing both Landsat 7 and 8 scenes, after the forest fire of summer 2012 in the parish of Calde, in the central region of Portugal, as well as an orthophoto produced with images acquired by an unmanned aerial vehicle.

Receptors, sparks and waves in a fire-diffuse-fire framework for calcium release

Calcium ions are an important second messenger in living cells. Indeed calcium signals in the form of waves have been the subject of much recent experimental interest. It is now well established that these waves are composed of elementary stochastic release events (calcium puffs or sparks) from spatially localised calcium stores. The aim of this paper is to analyse how the stochastic nature of individual receptors within these stores combines to create stochastic behaviour on long timescales that may ultimately lead to waves of activity in a spatially extended cell model. Techniques from asymptotic analysis and stochastic phase-plane analysis are used to show that a large cluster of receptor channels leads to a release probability with a sigmoidal dependence on calcium density. This release probability is incorporated into a computationally inexpensive model of calcium release based upon a stochastic generalization of the Fire-Diffuse-Fire (FDF) threshold model. Numerical simulations of the model in one and two dimensions (with stores arranged on both regular and disordered lattices) illustrate that stochastic calcium release leads to the spontaneous production of calcium sparks that may merge to form saltatory waves. Illustrations of spreading circular waves, spirals and more irregular waves are presented. Furthermore, receptor noise is shown to generate a form of array enhanced coherence resonance whereby all calcium stores release periodically and simultaneously.

Dynamic fator Models for bivariate Count Data: an application to fire activity

The study of forest re activity, in its several aspects, is essencial to understand the phenomenon and to prevent environmental public catastrophes. In this context the analysis of monthly number of res along several years is one aspect to have into account in order to better comprehend this tematic. The goal of this work is to analyze the monthly number of forest res in the neighboring districts of Aveiro and Coimbra, Portugal, through dynamic factor models for bivariate count series. We use a bayesian approach, through MCMC methods, to estimate the model parameters as well as to estimate the common latent factor to both series.

Directed percolation in a two dimensional stochastic fire-diffuse-fire model

In this paper we establish, from extensive numerical experiments, that the two dimensional stochastic fire-diffuse-fire model belongs to the directed percolation universality class. This model is an idealized model of intracellular calcium release that retains the both the discrete nature of calcium stores and the stochastic nature of release. It is formed from an array of noisy threshold elements that are coupled only by a diffusing signal. The model supports spontaneous release events that can merge to form spreading circular and spiral waves of activity. The critical level of noise required for the system to exhibit a non-equilibrium phase-transition between propagating and non-propagating waves is obtained by an examination of the \textit{local slope} $\delta(t)$ of the survival probability, $\Pi(t) \propto \exp(- \delta(t))$, for a wave to propagate for a time $t$.

SFPE Engineering Guide to Human Behavior in Fire

Abstract not available

The families and friends of heavy drinkers: Caught in the cross-fire of policy change?

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Research highlights the need to better understand the impact of alcohol-related harm on families and communities. Scottish policy initiatives to reduce alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm include the planned introduction of a minimum unit price for alcohol. We aimed to explore existing and proposed changes in alcohol policy, from the standpoint of heavy drinkers, through accounts of their involvement and repercussions for family and friends. DESIGN AND METHODS: Interviews were conducted with 20 heavy drinkers, recruited from hospital alcohol treatment centres in Scotland's two largest cities. Participants were part of a larger longitudinal mixed methods study. Interviews explored experiences of alcohol-related harm and the impact, or potential impact, of alcohol policy changes on drinking patterns, risk-taking, consumption and wellbeing. Data coded for 'family and friends' were thematically analysed using a constant comparison method. RESULTS: Family and friends were portrayed as important for aiding moderation and abstinence, but more often for sustaining continued heavy drinking. Heavy drinkers with complex needs and those living in deprived communities suggested that increased alcohol prices could exacerbate the detrimental effect on their health and social circumstances, and that of their family, should their consumption remain excessive. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Population level policy initiatives to reduce alcohol consumption, such as minimum unit pricing, will impact on the families and social networks of heavy drinkers in addition to the drinker. The most vulnerable may be affected disproportionately. Alcohol policy changes and evaluations need to consider consequences for drinkers, families and communities. [O'May F, Whittaker A, Black H, Gill J. The families and friends of heavy drinkers: Caught in the cross-fire of policy change?

Long term repeated fire disturbance alters soil bacterial diversity but not the abundance in an Australian wet sclerophyll forest

Effects of fire on biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystem are widely acknowledged, while few studies have focused on the bacterial community under the disturbance of long-term frequent prescribed fire. In this study, three treatments (burning every two years (B2), burning every four years (B4) and no burning (B0)) were applied for 38 years in an Australian wet sclerophyll forest. Results showed that bacterial alpha diversity (i.e. bacterial OTU) in the top soil (0-10 cm) was significantly higher in the B2 treatment compared with the B0 and B4 treatments. Non-metric multidimensional analysis (NMDS) of bacterial community showed clear separation of the soil bacterial community structure among different fire frequency regimes and between the depths. Different frequency fire did not have a substantial effect on bacterial composition at phylum level or bacterial 16S rRNA gene abundance. Soil pH and C:N ratio were the major drivers for bacterial community structure in the most frequent fire treatment (B2), while other factors (EC, DOC, DON, MBC, NH 4 +, TC and TN) were significant in the less frequent burning and no burning treatments (B4 and B0). This study suggested that burning had a dramatic impact on bacterial diversity but not abundance with more frequent fire.

Measurement and Simulation of Suppression Effects in a Buoyant Turbulent Line Fire

An experimental and numerical study of turbulent fire suppression is presented. For this work, a novel and canonical facility has been developed, featuring a buoyant, turbulent, methane or propane-fueled diffusion flame suppressed via either nitrogen dilution of the oxidizer or application of a fine water mist. Flames are stabilized on a slot burner surrounded by a co-flowing oxidizer, which allows controlled delivery of either suppressant to achieve a range of conditions from complete combustion through partial and total flame quenching. A minimal supply of pure oxygen is optionally applied along the burner to provide a strengthened flame base that resists liftoff extinction and permits the study of substantially weakened turbulent flames. The carefully designed facility features well-characterized inlet and boundary conditions that are especially amenable to numerical simulation. Non-intrusive diagnostics provide detailed measurements of suppression behavior, yielding insight into the governing suppression processes, and aiding the development and validation of advanced suppression models. Diagnostics include oxidizer composition analysis to determine suppression potential, flame imaging to quantify visible flame structure, luminous and radiative emissions measurements to assess sooting propensity and heat losses, and species-based calorimetry to evaluate global heat release and combustion efficiency. The studied flames experience notable suppression effects, including transition in color from bright yellow to dim blue, expansion in flame height and structural intermittency, and reduction in radiative heat emissions. Still, measurements indicate that the combustion efficiency remains close to unity, and only near the extinction limit do the flames experience an abrupt transition from nearly complete combustion to total extinguishment. Measurements are compared with large eddy simulation results obtained using the Fire Dynamics Simulator, an open-source computational fluid dynamics software package. Comparisons of experimental and simulated results are used to evaluate the performance of available models in predicting fire suppression. Simulations in the present configuration highlight the issue of spurious reignition that is permitted by the classical eddy-dissipation concept for modeling turbulent combustion. To address this issue, simple treatments to prevent spurious reignition are developed and implemented. Simulations incorporating these treatments are shown to produce excellent agreement with the experimentally measured data, including the global combustion efficiency.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons at fire stations: firefighters’ exposure monitoring and biomonitoring, and assessment of the contribution to total internal dose

This work characterizes levels of eighteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the breathing air zone of firefighters during their regular work shift at eight Portuguese fire stations, and the firefighters' total internal dose by six urinary monohydroxyl metabolites (OH-PAHs). Total PAHs (ΣPAHs) concentrations varied widely (46.4-428ng/m(3)), mainly due to site specificity (urban/rural) and characteristics (age and layout) of buildings. Airborne PAHs with 2-3 rings were the most abundant (63.9-95.7% ΣPAHs). Similarly, urinary 1-hydroxynaphthalene and 1-hydroxyacenaphthene were the predominant metabolites (66-96% ΣOH-PAHs). Naphthalene contributed the most to carcinogenic ΣPAHs (39.4-78.1%) in majority of firehouses; benzo[a]pyrene, the marker of carcinogenic PAHs, accounted with 1.5-10%. Statistically positive significant correlations (r≥0.733, p≤0.025) were observed between ΣPAHs and urinary ΣOH-PAHs for firefighters of four fire stations suggesting that, at these sites, indoor air was their major exposure source of PAHs. Firefighter's personal exposure to PAHs at Portuguese fire stations were well below the existent occupational exposure limits. Also, the quantified concentrations of post-shift urinary 1-hydroxypyrene in all firefighters were clearly lower than the benchmark level (0.5μmol/mol) recommended by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists.

Red Imported Fire Ants: a threat to eastern Australian wildlife?

The discovery of the Red Imported Fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) in Brisbane on 22 February 2001 sent shock waves through urban and rural communities alike. This article is an attempt to address the often repeated question ‘What will become of Australia's unique fauna if they spread along Australia's eastern seaboard?

Simulating the effects of vegetation and landscape structure on fire behavior in northeastern Portugal: the case of holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia)

O fogo é um processo frequente nas paisagens do norte de Portugal. Estudos anteriores mostraram que os bosques de azinheira (Quercus rotundifolia) persistem após a passagem do fogo e ajudam a diminuir a sua intensidade e taxa de propagação. Os principais objetivos deste estudo foram compreender e modelar o efeito dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo ao nível da paisagem da bacia superior do rio Sabor, localizado no nordeste de Portugal. O impacto dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo foi testado em termos de área e configuração de acordo com cenários que simulam a possível distribuição destas unidades de vegetação na paisagem, considerando uma percentagem de ocupação da azinheira de 2.2% (Low), 18.1% (Moderate), 26.0% (High), e 39.8% (Rivers). Estes cenários tiveram como principal objetivo testar 1) o papel dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo e 2) de que forma a configuração das manchas de azinheira podem ajudar a diminuir a intensidade da linha de fogo e área ardida. Na modelação do comportamento do fogo foi usado o modelo FlamMap para simular a intensidade de linha do fogo e taxa de propagação do fogo com base em modelos de combustível associados a cada ocupação e uso do solo presente na área de estudo, e também com base em fatores topográficos (altitude, declive e orientação da encosta) e climáticos (humidade e velocidade do vento). Foram ainda usados dois modelos de combustível para a ocupação de azinheira (áreas interiores e de bordadura), desenvolvidos com base em dados reais obtidos na região. Usou-se o software FRAGSATS para a análise dos padrões espaciais das classes de intensidade de linha do fogo, usando-se as métricas Class Area (CA), Number of Patches (NP) e Large Patches Index (LPI). Os resultados obtidos indicaram que a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação do fogo variou entre cenários e entre modelos de combustível para o azinhal. A intensidade média da linha de fogo e a taxa média de propagação do fogo decresceu à medida que a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou na paisagem. Também foi observado que as métricas CA, NP e LPI variaram entre cenários e modelos de combustível para o azinhal, decrescendo quando a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou. Este estudo permitiu concluir que a variação da percentagem de ocupação e configuração espacial dos bosques de azinheira influenciam o comportamento do fogo, reduzindo, em termos médios, a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação, sugerindo que os bosques de azinhal podem ser usados como medidas silvícolas preventivas para diminuir o risco de incêndio nesta região.

Marine casualty report : SS C. V. Sea Witch - SS Esso Brussels (Belgium) : collision and fire in New York Harbor on June 1973 with loss of life : U.S. Coast Guard Marine Board of Investigation report and commandant's action : action by National Transportation Safety Board.

"Report no. USCG/NTSB-MAR-75-6."