Assorted topics in monetary economics

Esta tese é uma coleção de quatro artigos em economia monetária escritos sob a supervisão do Professor Rubens Penha Cysne. O primeiro desses artigos calcula o viés presente em medidas do custo de bem-estar da inflação devido a não se levar em conta o potencial substitutivo de moedas que rendem juros, como depósitos bancários.[1] O segundo se concentra na questão teórica de se comparar os escopos dos tradicionais modelos money-in-the-utility-function e shopping-time através do estudo das propriedades das curvas de demanda que eles geram.[2] O terceiro desses trabalhos revisita um artigo clássico de Stanley Fischer sobre a correlação entre a taxa de crescimento da oferta monetária e a taxa de acumulação de capital no caminho de transição.[3] Finalmente, o quarto diz respeito à posição relativa de cada uma de seis medidas do custo de bem-estar da inflação (uma das quais é nova) em relação às outras cinco, e uma estimativa do erro relativo máximo em que o pesquisador pode incorrer devido a sua escolha de empregar uma dessas medidas qualquer vis-à-vis as outras.[4] This thesis collects four papers on monetary economics written under the supervision of Professor Rubens Penha Cysne. The first of these papers assesses the bias occuring in welfare-cost-of-inflation measures due to failing to take into consideration the substitution potential of interest-bearing monies such as bank deposits.[1] The second one tackles the theoretical issue of comparing the generality of the money-in-the-utility-function- and the shopping-time models by studying the properties of the demand curves they generate.[2] The third of these works revisits a classic paper by Stanley Fischer on the correlation between the growth rate of money supply and the rate of capital accumulation on the transition path.[3] Finally, the fourth one concerns the relative standing of each one of six measures of the welfare cost of inflation (one of which is new) with respect to the other five, and an estimate of the maximum relative error one can incur by choosing to employ a particular welfare measure in place of the others.[4] [1] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2010. Welfare costs of inflation when interest-bearing deposits are disregarded: A calculation of the bias. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 1015-1030. [2] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2009. On the integrability of money-demand functions by the Sidrauski and the shopping-time models. Journal of Banking & Finance 33, 1555-1562. [3] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2010. Money supply and capital accumulation on the transition path revisited. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42, 1173-1184. [4] Cysne, R.P., Turchick, D., 2011. An ordering of measures of the welfare cost of inflation in economies with interest-bearing deposits. Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming.

Incidência de eventos adversos em uma coorte de hipertensos

Introdução: A hipertensão é fator de risco importante para doenças cardiovasculares, mas o controle da pressão arterial é insatisfatório. Um dos motivos para o controle inadequado é a fraca adesão entre os pacientes que recebem antihipertensivos, parcialmente explicada pela ocorrência de eventos adversos. A incidência de eventos adversos chega a 28% em ensaios clínicos, mas a real magnitude do problema na prática assistencial é pouco conhecida. Métodos: Realizou-se um estudo de coorte prospectivamente planejado, acompanhada de 1989 a 2000, no ambulatório de hipertensão arterial do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (Divisão de Cardiologia e Farmacologia Clínica do HCPA). Os objetivos foram, determinar a incidência de eventos adversos (EA) relacionadas à terapia anti-hipertensiva, referidos por pacientes hipertensos, descrever os EA mais freqüentes e os fatores de risco para ocorrência de EA. Em cada consulta, os pacientes eram indagados sobre a presença de evento adverso e, no caso de resposta positiva, era aplicada uma lista dirigida a eventos adversos específicos. Resultados: De 1957 pacientes da coorte, 1508 preencheram os critérios de inclusão e foram seguidos por 12,3 ± 12,2 meses (mediana, 10 meses), resultando em 18548 pacientes/mês. Entre todos os pacientes incluídos, 534 (35,4%) apresentaram pelo menos uma queixa de evento adverso durante o acompanhamento, resultando em 28,8 pacientes com EA /1000 pacientes/mês (IC 95% 26,4 a 31,3). Entre os pacientes em tratamento farmacológico (1366), a incidência foi de 31,3 pacientes com EA /1000 pacientes/mês (IC 95% 28,6 a 33,9) e, entre aqueles em uso de monoterapia, de 29,6 pacientes com EA /1000 pacientes / mês ( IC 95% 22,3 a 36,9). Os pacientes em uso de mais de um anti-hipertensivo apresentaram risco relativo bruto para eventos adversos de 2,10 (IC 95% 1,67 a 2,63). Houve associação entre a classe do anti-hipertensivo usado em monoterapia e a ocorrência de eventos adversos em algum momento do seguimento (P < 0,001), os quais foram mais freqüentes com bloqueadores dos canais de cálcio comparados aos tiazídicos e betabloqueadores. Entre as queixas específicas, tontura (P = 0,007), cefaléia (P = 0,003) e problemas sexuais (P= 0,045) foram mais freqüentes no primeiro grupo. Conclusões: O presente estudo descreveu a incidência de eventos adversos em uma coorte de pacientes hipertensos de um ambulatório especializado, confirmando dados de estudos observacionais e ensaios clínicos que indicam que estes são problemas freqüentes. O uso de mais de um anti-hipertensivo aumenta significativamente o risco de eventos adversos e, entre as classes de antihipertensivos usados em monoterapia, os tiazídicos mostram-se os mais seguros.

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Coffee voluntary standards systems a study of the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo

In order to adapt to new markets, the coffee supply chain has gone through numerous changes during the last years, which led to the creation of the voluntary standard systems. Adopting a Voluntary Standard System (VSS) consists of becoming a member of a certifier or verifier, in which an independent third party sets specific criteria to ensure a product complies with standards. Yet, the segment is still relatively new and raises some doubts about the economic and financial advantages of investing in sustainability-related certification. This study analyzes the perception of coffee producers about VSS – whether it brings economic benefits. The literature review covers various VSS in the coffee sector, the brief history of the commodity in Brazil, as well as the description of the supply chain. Certified and non-certified producers in the States of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, answered questionnaires to indicate the perceived advantages of certification. The results show that, despite some added value that certification can bestow, the quality is what really matter, since it allows producers to sell the product at higher prices and to gain advantage over competitors.

Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Análises Estruturais e atividades biológicas de exopolissacarídeo extraído do fungo comestível pleurotus Sajor-Caju e de seu derivado sulfatado quimicamente.

The exopolysaccharides are extracellular compounds produced by some species of fungi and bacteria. It is suggested that these molecules, even when in the form of complex polysaccharide-peptide, are the main bioactive molecules of many fungus. Some of the biological activities displayed by these compounds can be accentuated and others may arise when you add chemically polar or nonpolar groups to polysaccharides. The fruiting body of Pleurotus sajor-caju produces a heteropolysaccharide with antineoplastic and antimicrobial activity, but other biological activities of this polymer have not been evaluated. In this work the exopolysaccharide of Pleurotus sajor-caju was sulfated chemically and structurally characterized. We also evaluated the antiproliferative, antioxidant and anticoagulant activities from native exopolysaccharide (PN) and its sulfated derivated (PS). Polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance (¹³C) proved successful in sulfation of PN to obtain PS. Analysis by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy showed that PN and PS are composed of mannose, galactose, 3-O-methyl-galactose and glucose in proportion percentage of 44,9:16,3:19,8:19 and 49, 7:14,4:17,7:18,2, respectively. The percentage of sulfate found in PS was 22.5%. Antioxidants assays revealed that the sulfation procedure affects differently the activities of exopolysaccharides, while the total antioxidant capacity, the scavenging activity of superoxide radical and ferric chelating were not affected by sulfation, on the other hand the chemical modification of PN enhanced the scavenging activity of hydroxyl radical and reducing power. PS also showed anticoagulant activity in a dose-dependent manner and clotting time was 3.0 times higher than the baseline value in APTT at 2 mg/mL. The exopolysaccharide not presented antiproliferative activity against HeLa tumor cells, but PS affects the cellular proliferation in a time-dependent manner. After 72 h, the inhibition rate of PS (2.0 mg/mL) on HeLa cells was about 60%. The results showed that PN sulfation increase some of their activities.

Produtividade e esverdeamento pós-colheita de tubérculos de cultivares de batata produzidos na safra de inverno

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Extração e exportação de nutrientes em cultivares de batata: I - macronutrientes

A determinação das quantidades de nutrientes absorvidas durante o ciclo de desenvolvimento é de suma importância para estabelecer as épocas em que esses elementos são mais exigidos e as quantidades corretas que devem ser disponibilizadas à cultura da batata. No entanto, quase não existem essas informações para as principais cultivares utilizadas no Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a extração e a exportação de macronutrientes pelas cultivares de batata Ágata, Asterix, Atlantic, Markies e Mondial. O experimento foi conduzido durante a safra de inverno, em um Latossolo Vermelho, no município de Itaí (SP). As parcelas foram constituídas pelas cinco cultivares, e as subparcelas, por épocas de coletas, realizadas no momento do plantio e a cada sete dias após a emergência. As cultivares Mondial e Asterix, mais produtivas, apresentaram maior extração de macronutrientes, com quantidades médias por hectare de 116 kg de N, 18 kg de P, 243 kg de K, 50 kg de Ca e 13 kg de Mg, enquanto as cultivares Ágata, Atlantic e Markies extraíram menor quantidade, com valores médios de 92, 14, 178, 35 e 9 kg ha-1, respectivamente. A maior demanda por macronutrientes pelas cultivares estudadas ocorreu na fase inicial de enchimento dos tubérculos (42 a 70 DAP). A exportação de macronutrientes não esteve diretamente relacionada com a produtividade de tubérculos, já que a cultivar mais produtiva (Mondial) não foi a que exportou a maior quantidade de macronutrientes. A cultivar Asterix exportou maior quantidade de N, P, K e Mg, com valores de 88, 15, 220 e 8 kg ha-1, respectivamente, enquanto a menor exportação foi observada na cultivar Atlantic, com 48 kg ha-1 de N, 10 kg ha-1 de P, 143 kg ha-1 de K e 5 kg ha-1 de Mg. A variação entre as cultivares na extração, especialmente de K e N, indica necessidade de manejo diferencial da adubação.

Impact of the in situ formed salivary pellicle on enamel and dentine erosion induced by different acids

Objective. To investigate and compare the protective impact of the in situ formed salivary pellicle on enamel and dentine erosion caused by different acids at pH 2.6. Methods. Bovine enamel and dentine samples were exposed for 120 min in the oral cavity of 10 healthy volunteers. Subsequently, enamel and dentine pellicle-covered specimens were extraorally immersed in 1 ml hydrochloric, citric or phosphoric acid (pH 2.6, 60 s, each acid n=30 samples). Pellicle-free samples (each acid n=10) served as controls. Calcium release into the acid was determined by atomic absorption spectroscopy. The data were analysed by two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test (alpha=0.05). Results. Pellicle-covered samples showed significantly less calcium loss compared to pellicle-free samples in all acid groups. The mean (SD) pellicle protection (% reduction of calcium loss) was significantly better for enamel samples [60.9 (5.3)] than for dentine samples [30.5 (5.0)], but revealed no differences among the acids. Conclusion. The efficacy of the in situ pellicle in reducing erosion was 2-fold better for enamel than for dentine. Protection of the pellicle was not influenced by the kind of acid when enamel and dentine erosion was performed at pH 2.6.

Correlation of Atopobium vaginae Amount With Bacterial Vaginosis Markers

Objective. The purpose of this study was to test the correlation of the amount of Atopobium vaginae with the most commonly used markers for bacterial vaginosis (BV).Materials and Methods. We enrolled 103 nonpregnant and premenopausal women that were positive for BV by Amsel criteria and with a Nugent score higher than 3. All women were negative for yeast, Chlamydia trachomatis, Trichomonas vaginalis, and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. A. vaginae concentration was determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction from samples of vaginal rinsings with 2 mL of sterile saline.Results. There was no difference in the median values of A. vaginae concentration when comparing samples with presence or absence of each individual Amsel criterion. In the case of a higher pH cutoff value of 4.9, greater amounts of this microorganism (p = .02) were found. In addition, correlation tests showed that A. vaginae concentration is positively correlated with pH (p < .001) and with Nugent scores (p = .003).Conclusions. The quantification of A. vaginae is useful for identification of the most severe cases of BV.

Influence of chemical activation of a 35% hydrogen peroxide bleaching gel on its penetration and efficacy-In vitro study

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo da influência de adições de prata na resistividade elétrica da liga Cu-5%Al

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)