The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Spatial predictions of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making.

Considering genetic relatedness among species has long been argued as an important step toward measuring biological diversity more accurately, rather than relying solely on species richness. Some researchers have correlated measures of phylogenetic diversity and species richness across a series of sites and suggest that values of phylogenetic diversity do not differ enough from those of species richness to justify their inclusion in conservation planning. We compared predictions of species richness and 10 measures of phylogenetic diversity by creating distribution models for 168 individual species of a species-rich plant family, the Cape Proteaceae. When we used average amounts of land set aside for conservation to compare areas selected on the basis of species richness with areas selected on the basis of phylogenetic diversity, correlations between species richness and different measures of phylogenetic diversity varied considerably. Correlations between species richness and measures that were based on the length of phylogenetic tree branches and tree shape were weaker than those that were based on tree shape alone. Elevation explained up to 31% of the segregation of species rich versus phylogenetically rich areas. Given these results, the increased availability of molecular data, and the known ecological effect of phylogenetically rich communities, consideration of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making may be feasible and informative.

Mutation in the gene for connexin 30.3 in a family with erythrokeratodermia variabilis.

Erythrokeratodermia variabilis (EKV) is an autosomal dominant keratinization disorder characterized by migratory erythematous lesions and fixed keratotic plaques. All families with EKV show mapping to chromosome 1p34-p35, and mutations in the gene for connexin 31 (Cx31) have been reported in some but not all families. We studied eight affected and three healthy subjects in an Israeli family, of Kurdish origin, with EKV. After having mapped the disorder to chromosome 1p34-p35, we found no mutations in the genes for Cx31, Cx31.1, and Cx37. Further investigation revealed a heterozygous T-->C transition leading to the missense mutation (F137L) in the human gene for Cx30.3 that colocalizes on chromosome 1p34-p35. This nucleotide change cosegregated with the disease and was not found in 200 alleles from normal individuals. This mutation concerns a highly conserved phenylalanine, in the third transmembrane region of the Cx30.3 molecule, known to be implicated in the wall formation of the gap-junction pore. Our results show that mutations in the gene for Cx30.3 can be causally involved in EKV and point to genetic heterogeneity of this disorder. Furthermore, we suggest that our family presents a new type of EKV because of the hitherto unreported association with erythema gyratum repens.

Aspects of immunity for the AMA-1 family of molecules in humans and non-human primates malarias

The apical membrane antigen (AMA-1) family of malaria merozoite proteins is characterised by a high degree of inter-species conservation. Evidence that the protein (PK66/AMA-1) from the simian parasite Plasmodium knowlesi was protective in rhesus monkeys suggested that the 83kDa P. falciparum equivalent (PF83/AMA-1) should be investigated for protective effects in humans. Here we briefly review pertinent comparative data, and describe the use of an eukaryotic full length recombinant PF83/AMA-1 molecule to develop a sensitive ELISA for the determination of serological responses in endemic populations. The assay has revealed surprisingly high levels of humoral response to this quantitatively minor antigen. We also show that PK66/AMA-1 inhibitory mAb's are active against merozoites subsequent to release from schizont-infected red cells, further implicating AMA-1 molecules in red cell invasion.

A role for the src family kinase Fyn in NK cell activation and the formation of the repertoire of Ly49 receptors.

NK cell function is regulated by a dual receptor system, which integrates signals from triggering receptors and MHC class I-specific inhibitory receptors. We show here that the src family kinase Fyn is required for efficient, NK cell-mediated lysis of target cells, which lack both self-MHC class I molecules and ligands for NKG2D, an activating NK cell receptor. In contrast, NK cell inhibition by the MHC class I-specific receptor Ly49A was independent of Fyn, suggesting that Fyn is specifically required for NK cell activation via non-MHC receptor(s). Compared to wild type, significantly fewer Fyn-deficient NK cells expressed the inhibitory Ly49A receptor. The presence of a transgenic Ly49A receptor together with its H-2(d) ligand strongly reduced the usage of endogenous Ly49 receptors in Fyn-deficient mice. These data suggest a model in which the repertoire of inhibitory Ly49 receptors is formed under the influenced of Fyn-dependent NK cell activation as well as the respective MHC class I environment. NK cells may acquire Ly49 receptors until they generate sufficient inhibitory signals to balance their activation levels. Such a process would ensure the induction of NK cell self-tolerance.

Coronary heart disease in primary care: accuracy of medical history and physical findings in patients with chest pain - a study protocol for a systematic review with individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care, with coronary heart disease (CHD) being the most concerning of many potential causes. Systematic reviews on the sensitivity and specificity of symptoms and signs summarize the evidence about which of them are most useful in making a diagnosis. Previous meta-analyses are dominated by studies of patients referred to specialists. Moreover, as the analysis is typically based on study-level data, the statistical analyses in these reviews are limited while meta-analyses based on individual patient data can provide additional information. Our patient-level meta-analysis has three unique aims. First, we strive to determine the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for myocardial ischemia in primary care. Second, we investigate associations between study- or patient-level characteristics and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Third, we aim to validate existing clinical prediction rules for diagnosing myocardial ischemia in primary care. This article describes the methods of our study and six prospective studies of primary care patients with chest pain. Later articles will describe the main results. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing coronary heart disease in primary care. We will perform bivariate analyses to determine the sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of individual symptoms and signs and multivariate analyses to explore the diagnostic value of an optimal combination of all symptoms and signs based on all data of all studies. We will validate existing clinical prediction rules from each of the included studies by calculating measures of diagnostic accuracy separately by study. DISCUSSION: Our study will face several methodological challenges. First, the number of studies will be limited. Second, the investigators of original studies defined some outcomes and predictors differently. Third, the studies did not collect the same standard clinical data set. Fourth, missing data, varying from partly missing to fully missing, will have to be dealt with.Despite these limitations, we aim to summarize the available evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing CHD in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (University of York): CRD42011001170.

Variable phenotypic expressivity in a Swiss family with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to mutation T494m in the Prpf3 gene

Purpose:to describe the clinical features in a five generations family segregating autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa and to identify the causative gene Patient and Methods:Twenty five individuals of a large five-generation family originating from Western Switzerland were ascertained for phenotypic and genotypic characterization. Ophthalmologic evaluations included color vision testing, Goldman perimetry and digital fundus photography. Some patients had autofluorescence (AF) imaging, ocular coherence tomography (OCT) and ISCEV-standard full-field electroretinography (ERG). Blood samples were collected from 10 affected (4 to 70 years of age) and 15 unaffected members after informed consent. DNA was isolated and exons and intron-exons junctions of known adRP genes were sequenced using a Big Dye sequencing kit 1.1. Results:Age of onset of nightblindness and severity of progression of the disease was variable between members of the family. Some patients had early onset of nightblindess aged 3, others at mid-twenties. Most patients had visual acuity above 0.6 for the first 4 decades. Two older patients still had good vision (0.4) in their seventies. Myopia (range: -2 to -5) was noticed in most affected subjects. Fundus findings showed areas of atrophy along the arcades. The AF imaging showed a large high density ring bilaterally. A T494M change was found in exon 11 of PRPF3 gene. The change segregates with the disease in the family. Conclusion: A mutation in the PRPF3 gene is rare compared with other genes causing ADRP. Although a T494M change has been reported, our family is the first one with a variable expressivity. Mutations in PRPF3 gene can cause a variable phenotype of ADRP unlike the previously described Danish and English families. Our report gives a better understanding as to the phenotype/genotype description of ADRP due to PRPF3 mutation.

Maturation of marginal zone and follicular B cells requires B cell activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family and is independent of B cell maturation antigen.

B cells undergo a complex series of maturation and selection steps in the bone marrow and spleen during differentiation into mature immune effector cells. The tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family member B cell activating factor of the TNF family (BAFF) (BLyS/TALL-1) plays an important role in B cell homeostasis. BAFF and its close homologue a proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL) have both been shown to interact with at least two receptors, B cell maturation antigen (BCMA) and transmembrane activator and cyclophilin ligand interactor (TACI), however their relative contribution in transducing BAFF signals in vivo remains unclear. To functionally inactivate both BAFF and APRIL, mice transgenic for a soluble form of TACI were generated. They display a developmental block of B cell maturation in the periphery, leading to a severe depletion of marginal zone and follicular B2 B cells, but not of peritoneal B1 B cells. In contrast, mice transgenic for a soluble form of BCMA, which binds APRIL, have no detectable B cell phenotype. This demonstrates a crucial role for BAFF in B cell maturation and strongly suggests that it signals via a BCMA-independent pathway and in an APRIL-dispensable way.

Prevalence and factors associated to the epidemic neuropathy in a population assisted by a family doctor in Cuba

With the outbreak of an epidemic neuropathy (EN) of unknown ethiology, a study of the prevalence and factors associated to the disease was carried out in the Zamora community, municipality of Marianao, Havana City. There were 11 patients identified with EN for a prevalence rate of 1.7/100. The major risk group was the one between 45 and 64 years of age, female sex, black skin. In the univaried analysis, a high prevalence ratio (PR) was found linked to beverage intake (PR=5.32 95%; confidence intervals (CI) = 1.2-24.4), frequent drugs intake (PR=6.59; CI=1.8-24.6), consumption of edible of non certified fats (PR=4.48; CI=1.2-16.7) and the smoking habit (PR=3.6; CI=1.1-12.2). More than73/100 (CI= 68.7-78.3) of the people under serologic study were infected with Coxsakie virus A-9 (strain 47) isolated from a patient still under research. It seems there are many factors like linder intake, antecedents of hemorrhagic conjuntivitis, nutritional aspects and others that, with the virus isolated were associated with this epidemiologic situation.

Interactions of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and TNF receptor family members in the mouse and human.

Ligands of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily (TNFSF) (4-1BBL, APRIL, BAFF, CD27L, CD30L, CD40L, EDA1, EDA2, FasL, GITRL, LIGHT, lymphotoxin alpha, lymphotoxin alphabeta, OX40L, RANKL, TL1A, TNF, TWEAK, and TRAIL) bind members of the TNF receptor superfamily (TNFRSF). A comprehensive survey of ligand-receptor interactions was performed using a flow cytometry-based assay. All ligands engaged between one and five receptors, whereas most receptors only bound one to three ligands. The receptors DR6, RELT, TROY, NGFR, and mouse TNFRH3 did not interact with any of the known TNFSF ligands, suggesting that they either bind other types of ligands, function in a ligand-independent manner, or bind ligands that remain to be identified. The study revealed that ligand-receptor pairs are either cross-reactive between human and mouse (e.g. Tweak/Fn14, RANK/RANKL), strictly species-specific (GITR/GITRL), or partially species-specific (e.g. OX40/OX40L, CD40/CD40L). Interestingly, the receptor binding patterns of lymphotoxin alpha and alphabeta are redundant in the human but not in the mouse system. Ligand oligomerization allowed detection of weak interactions, such as that of human TNF with mouse TNFR2. In addition, mouse APRIL exists as two different splice variants differing by a single amino acid. Although human APRIL does not interact with BAFF-R, the shorter variant of mouse APRIL exhibits weak but detectable binding to mouse BAFF-R.

Novel ADAM9 homozygous mutation in a consanguineous Egyptian family with severe cone-rod dystrophy and cataract.

OBJECTIVE: To genetically and phenotypically describe a new ADAM9 homozygous mutation in a consanguineous family from Egypt with autosomal recessive cone-rod dystrophy (arCRD), anterior polar and posterior subcapsular cataract. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The parents and their six children were included. They underwent a complete ophthalmic examination with fundus photography and optical coherence tomography (OCT). INTERVENTION: DNA was extracted from peripheral blood from all family members. Screening for mutations in genes known to be implicated in retinal disorders was done with the IROme, an in-solution enrichment array, followed by high-throughput sequencing. Validation of the results was done by bidirectional Sanger sequencing of ADAM9 exon 14, including exon-intron junctions. Screening of normal controls was done by denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography. RESULTS: arCRD was diagnosed in the mother and two of her children. Bilateral anterior polar and posterior subcapsular cataract was observed in the mother and bilateral dot cataract was diagnosed in three of the four children not affected with arCRD, one of whom also had glaucoma. The characteristics of the arCRD were childhood-onset visual impairment, reorganisation of the retinal pigment epithelium with mid-periphery greyish-white discolouration, attenuated retinal vasculatur and optic disc pallor. A coloboma-like macular lesion was observed in one of the arCRD-affected children. IROme analysis identified a c.1396-2A>G homozygous mutation in the splice acceptor site of intron 13 of ADAM9. This mutation was homozygous in the two children affected by arCRD and in their affected mother. This mutation was heterozygous in the unaffected father and the four unaffected children. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: We identified a novel autosomal recessive ADAM9 mutation causing arCRD in a consanguineous Egyptian family. The percentage of arCRD cases caused by mutation in ADAM9 remains to be determined. Few families are reported in the literature to date; hence extensive clinical descriptions of families with ADAM9 mutations are of significant importance.