Holocene climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps

Treelines are expected to rise to higher elevations with climate warming; the rate and extent however are still largely unknown. Here we present the first multi-proxy palaeoecological study from the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps that covers the entire Holocene. We reconstructed climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee, an alpine lake at 2,065 m a.s.l., by using seismic sedimentary surveys, loss on ignition, visible spectrum reflectance spectroscopy, pollen, spore, macrofossil and charcoal analyses. Afforestation with Larix decidua and tree Betula (probably B. pendula) started at ~9,800 cal. b.p., more than 1,000 years later than at similar elevations in the Central and Southern Alps, indicating cooler temperatures and/or a high seasonality. Highest biomass production and forest position of ~2,100–2,300 m a.s.l. are inferred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum from 7,000 to 5,000 cal. b.p. With the onset of pastoralism and transhumance at 6,800–6,500 cal. b.p., human impact became an important factor in the vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee. This early evidence of pastoralism is documented by the presence of grazing indicators (pollen, spores), as well as a wealth of archaeological finds at the nearby mountain pass of Schnidejoch. Human and fire impact during the Neolithic and Bronze Ages led to the establishment of pastures and facilitated the expansion of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. We expect that in mountain areas with land abandonment, the treeline will react quickly to future climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, causing drastic changes in species distribution and composition as well as severe biodiversity losses.

Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

Limit theorems for nondegenerate U-statistics of continuous semimartingales

This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate U-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous Itô semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem for the standardized version of the U-statistic. The limiting process in the central limit theorem turns out to be conditionally Gaussian with mean zero. Finally, we indicate potential statistical applications of our probabilistic results.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

Tools & Techniques - Statistics: Propensity score techniques.

Propensity score (PS) techniques are useful if the number of potential confounding pretreatment variables is large and the number of analysed outcome events is rather small so that conventional multivariable adjustment is hardly feasible. Only pretreatment characteristics should be chosen to derive PS, and only when they are probably associated with outcome. A careful visual inspection of PS will help to identify areas of no or minimal overlap, which suggests residual confounding, and trimming of the data according to the distribution of PS will help to minimise residual confounding. Standardised differences in pretreatment characteristics provide a useful check of the success of the PS technique employed. As with conventional multivariable adjustment, PS techniques cannot account for confounding variables that are not or are only imperfectly measured, and no PS technique is a substitute for an adequately designed randomised trial.

Fire in ice: two millennia of boreal forest fire history from the Greenland NEEM ice core

Biomass burning is a major source of greenhouse gases and influences regional to global climate. Pre-industrial fire-history records from black carbon, charcoal and other proxies provide baseline estimates of biomass burning at local to global scales spanning millennia, and are thus useful to examine the role of fire in the carbon cycle and climate system. Here we use the specific biomarker levoglucosan together with black carbon and ammonium concentrations from the North Greenland Eemian (NEEM) ice cores (77.49° N, 51.2° W; 2480 m a.s.l) over the past 2000 years to infer changes in boreal fire activity. Increases in boreal fire activity over the periods 1000–1300 CE and decreases during 700–900 CE coincide with high-latitude NH temperature changes. Levoglucosan concentrations in the NEEM ice cores peak between 1500 and 1700 CE, and most levoglucosan spikes coincide with the most extensive central and northern Asian droughts of the past millennium. Many of these multi-annual droughts are caused by Asian monsoon failures, thus suggesting a connection between low- and high-latitude climate processes. North America is a primary source of biomass burning aerosols due to its relative proximity to the Greenland Ice Cap. During major fire events, however, isotopic analyses of dust, back trajectories and links with levoglucosan peaks and regional drought reconstructions suggest that Siberia is also an important source of pyrogenic aerosols to Greenland.

The role of human-induced fire and sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivation on the long-term landscape dynamics of the southern Swiss Alps

Changes in fire occurrence during the last decades in the southern Swiss Alps make knowledge on fire history essential to understand future evolution of the ecosystem composition and functioning. In this context, palaeoecology provides useful insights into processes operating at decadal-to-millennial time scales, such as the response of plant communities to intensified fire disturbances during periods of cultural change. We provide a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen series from Guèr, a well-dated peat sequence at mid-elevation (832 m.a.s.l.) in southern Switzerland, where the presence of local settlements is documented since the late Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Quantitative fire reconstruction shows that fire activity sharply increased from the Neolithic period (1–3 episodes/1000 year) to the late Bronze and Iron Age (7–9 episodes/1000 year), leading to extensive clearance of the former mixed deciduous forest (Alnus glutinosa, Betula, deciduous Quercus). The increase in anthropogenic pollen indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata) together with macroscopic charcoal suggests anthropogenic rather than climatic forcing as the main cause of the observed vegetation shift. Fire and controlled burning were extensively used during the late Roman Times and early Middle Ages to promote the introduction and establishment of chestnut (Castanea sativa) stands, which provided an important wood and food supply. Fire occurrence declined markedly (from 9 to 5–6 episodes/1000 year) during late Middle Ages because of fire suppression, biomass removal by human population, and landscape fragmentation. Land-abandonment during the last decades allowed forest to partly re-expand (mainly Alnus glutinosa, Betula) and fire frequency to increase.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

Alfaxalone anesthesia by immersion in oriental fire-bellied toads (Bombina orientalis).

OBJECTIVES To establish an effective alfaxalone concentration to be used for bath immersion of fire-bellied toads (Bombina orientalis) and to describe its effects. STUDY DESIGN Prospective experimental study. ANIMALS Thirteen oriental fire-bellied toads. METHODS The study was carried out in two phases. The pilot phase involved five animals and aimed to identify an alfaxalone concentration capable of producing induction of anesthesia, defined as immobility with a head down position and loss of responsiveness to stimulation with a stick. The following trial in an additional eight toads used the effective alfaxalone concentration established during the pilot phase. Data from 11 animals (three toads in the pilot study and the eight additional toads) were analyzed. Twenty minutes after immersion in the anesthetic solution, the toads were removed from the bath, and heart rate, respiratory rate, the righting, myotactic and the nociceptive withdrawal reflexes were evaluated every 5 minutes. The loss of both righting and nociceptive withdrawal reflexes was considered indicative of a surgical depth of anesthesia. The time elapsed from anesthetic induction to return of righting reflex, the quality of recovery and the occurrence of undesired effects were observed and recorded. RESULTS Immersion was found to be a suitable anesthetic technique for oriental fire-bellied toads and 200 mg L(-1) alfaxalone concentration produced anesthetic induction in 10 out of 11 toads. Side effects, such as skin irritation, erythema and changes in cutaneous pigmentation, were not observed in any animal. The duration of anesthesia ranged from 10 to 30 minutes after removal of the toads from the alfaxalone bath, and surgical depth of anesthesia was never achieved. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE It was concluded that alfaxalone anesthesia induced by immersion in a concentration of 200 mg L(-1) is only suitable for toads undergoing non-invasive short procedures.

How much management is enough? Stakeholder views on forest management in fire-prone areas in central Portugal

With the increasing pressure to improve the contribution of forests to help dealing with global changes, it is critical to understand the different perceptions of those involved in the forest. How do forest owners, managers and members of local communities who often depend on the forest, value it and what are the problems affecting the forests in terms of being able to meet these new challenges? In Portugal, this task has taken on an even greater priority as more than 90% of the forest is private and forest management relies on the individual decisions of thousands of forest owners. To understand stakeholder views on forest and forest management, a transversal social perception survey was implemented in the form of a case study of central Portugal which included decision-makers, local technicians, forest owners and the general public. The results show that there is a consensus on the main issues affecting forests and forest management. A shift from classic forest owners to the emergence of indifferent forest owners was observed, although this shift has not been recognized by the forest owners in the survey, who maintain the individual management of their properties.

Combining charcoal sediment and molecular markers to infer a Holocene fire history in the Maya Lowlands of Petén, Guatemala

Vegetation changes in the Maya Lowlands during the Holocene are a result of changing climate conditions, solely anthropogenic activities, or interactions of both factors. As a consequence, it is difficult to assess how tropical ecosystems will cope with projected changes in precipitation and land-use intensification over the next decades. We investigated the role offire during the Holocene by combining macroscopic charcoal and the molecular fire proxies levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan. Combining these two different fire proxies allows a more robust understanding of the complex history of fire re- gimes at different spatial scales during the Holocene. In order to infer changes in past biomass burning, we analysed a lake sediment core from Lake Peten Itza, Guatemala, and compared our results with millennial-scale vegetation and climate change available in the area. We detected three periods of high fire activity during the Holocene: 9500 e 6000 cal yr BP, 3700 cal yr BP and 2700 cal yr BP. We attribute the first maximum mostly to climate conditions and the last maximum to human activities. The rapid change between burned vegetation types at the 3700 cal yr BP fire maximum may result from human activity.