Effects of an extreme temperature event on the behavior and age structure of an estuarine top predator, Carcharhinus leucas

The frequency of extreme environmental events is predicted to increase in the future. Understanding the short- and long-term impacts of these extreme events on large-bodied predators will provide insight into the spatial and temporal scales at which acute environmental disturbances in top-down processes may persist within and across ecosystems. Here, we use long-term studies of movements and age structure of an estuarine top predator—juvenile bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas—to identify the effects of an extreme ‘cold snap’ from 2 to 13 January 2010 over short (weeks) to intermediate (months) time scales. Juvenile bull sharks are typically year-round residents of the Shark River Estuary until they reach 3 to 5 yr of age. However, acoustic telemetry revealed that almost all sharks either permanently left the system or died during the cold snap. For 116 d after the cold snap, no sharks were detected in the system with telemetry or captured during longline sampling. Once sharks returned, both the size structure and abundance of the individuals present in the nursery had changed considerably. During 2010, individual longlines were 70% less likely to capture any sharks, and catch rates on successful longlines were 40% lower than during 2006−2009. Also, all sharks caught after the cold snap were young-of-the-year or neonates, suggesting that the majority of sharks in the estuary were new recruits and several cohorts had been largely lost from the nursery. The longer-term impacts of this change in bull shark abundance to the trophic dynamics of the estuary and the importance of episodic disturbances to bull shark population dynamics will require continued monitoring, but are of considerable interest because of the ecological roles of bull sharks within coastal estuaries and oceans.

Mapping and Assessing Fire Damage on Broadleaved Forest Communities in Big Cypress National Preserve

Within Big Cypress National Preserve (BICY), oak-dominated forests and woodlands as well as tropical and temperate hardwood hammocks are integral components of the landscape and are biodiversity hotpots for both flora and fauna. These broadleaved forest communities serve as refugia for many of the Preserve’s wildlife species during prolonged flooding and fires. However, both prolonged flooding and severe fires, which are important and necessary disturbance vectors within this landscape, can have deleterious effects on these forested communities. This is particularly true in the case of fires, which under extreme conditions associated with drought and elevated fuel loads, can burn through these forested communities consuming litter and understory vegetation and top killing most, if not all, of the trees present.

Experimental and Analytical Methodologies for Predicting Peak Loads on Building Envelopes and Roofing Systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation. In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data. For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.

Aerodynamic Load Characteristics Evaluation and Tri-Axial Performance Testing on Fiber Reinforced Polymer Connections and Metal Fasteners to Promote Hurricane Damage Mitigation

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated tri-axial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing.

Quantifying confinement effects in ice impact loads

Ships and offshore structures, that encounter ice floes, tend to experience loads with varying pressure distributions within the contact patch. The effect of the surrounding ice adjacent to that which is involved in the contact zone has an influence on the effective strength. This effect has come to be called confinement. A methodology for quantifying ice sample confinement is developed, and the confinement is defined using two non-dimensional terms; a ratio of geometries and an angle. Together these terms are used to modify force predictions that account for increased fracturing and spalling at lower confinement levels. Data developed through laboratory experimentation is studied using dimensional analysis. The characteristics of dimensional analysis allow for easy comparison between many different load cases; provided the impact scenario is consistent. In all, a methodology is developed for analyzing ice impact testing considering confinement effects on force levels, with the potential for extrapolating these tests to full size collision events.

Experimental investigation of water, snow and granular ice effects on ice failure processes and impact loads

A large series of laboratory ice crushing experiments was performed to investigate the effects of external boundary condition and indenter contact geometry on ice load magnitude under crushing conditions. Four boundary conditions were considered: dry cases, submerged cases, and cases with the presence of snow and granular ice material on the indenter surface. Indenter geometries were a flat plate, wedge shaped indenter, (reverse) conical indenter, and spherical indenter. These were impacted with artificially produced ice specimens of conical shape with 20° and 30° cone angles. All indenter – ice combinations were tested in dry and submerged environments at 1 mm/s and 100 mm/s indentation rates. Additional tests with the flat indentation plate were conducted at 10 mm/s impact velocity and a subset of scenarios with snow and granular ice material was evaluated. The tests were performed using a material testing system (MTS) machine located inside a cold room at an ambient temperature of - 7°C. Data acquisition comprised time, vertical force, and displacement. In several tests with the flat plate and wedge shaped indenter, supplementary information on local pressure patterns and contact area were obtained using tactile pressure sensors. All tests were recorded with a high speed video camera and still photos were taken before and after each test. Thin sections were taken of some specimens as well. Ice loads were found to strongly depend on contact condition, interrelated with pre-existing confinement and indentation rate. Submergence yielded higher forces, especially at the high indentation rate. This was very evident for the flat indentation plate and spherical indenter, and with restrictions for the wedge shaped indenter. No indication was found for the conical indenter. For the conical indenter it was concluded that the structural restriction due to the indenter geometry was dominating. The working surface for the water to act was not sufficient to influence the failure processes and associated ice loads. The presence of snow and granular ice significantly increased the forces at the low indentation rate (with the flat indentation plate) that were higher compared to submerged cases and far above the dry contact condition. Contact area measurements revealed a correlation of higher forces with a concurrent increase in actual contact area that depended on the respective boundary condition. In submergence, ice debris constitution was changed; ice extrusion, as well as crack development and propagation were impeded. Snow and granular ice seemed to provide additional material sources for establishing larger contact areas. The dry contact condition generally had the smallest real contact area, as well as the lowest forces. The comparison of nominal and measured contact areas revealed distinct deviations. The incorporation of those differences in contact process pressures-area relationships indicated that the overall process pressure was not substantially affected by the increased loads.

Beak colour dynamically signals changes in fasting status and parasite loads in king penguins

Peer reviewed

Distribution network reconfiguration validation with uncertain loads - network configuration determination and application

Automatic load transfer (ALT) on the 11 kV network is the process by which circuit breakers on the network are switched to form open points in order to feed load from different primary substations. Some of the potential benefits that may be gained from dynamically using ALT include maximising utilisation of existing assets, voltage regulation and reduced losses. One of the key issues, that has yet to be properly addressed in published research, is how to validate that the modelled benefits really exist. On an 11 kV distribution network where the load is continually changing and the load on each distribution substation is unlikely to be monitored - reduction in losses from moving the normally open point is particularly difficult to prove. This study proposes a method to overcome this problem and uses measured primary feeder data from two parts of the Western Power Distribution 11 kV Network under different configurations. The process of choosing the different configurations is based on a heuristic modelling method of locating minimum voltages to help reduce losses.

Performance improvements of mooring systems for wave energy converters

In the development of wave energy converters, the mooring system is a key component for a safe station-keeping and an important factor in the cost of the wave energy production. Generally, when designing a mooring system for a wave energy converter, two important conditions must be considered: (i) that the mooring system must be strong enough to limit the drifting motions, even in extreme waves, tidal and wind conditions and (ii) it must be compliant enough so that the impact on wave energy production can be minimised. It is frequently found that these two conditions are contradictory. The existing solutions mainly include the use of heavy chains, which create a catenary shaped mooring configuration, allowing limited flexibility within the mooring system, and hence very large forces may still be present on mooring lines and thus on anchors. This solution is normally quite expensive if the costs of the materials and installation are included. This paper presents a new solution to the mooring system for wave energy converters within the FP7 project, ‘GeoWAVE’, which is a project aiming to develop a new generation of the moorings system for minimising the loads on mooring lines and anchors, the impact on the device motions for power conversion, and the footprint if it is applicable, and meanwhile the new types of anchors are also addressed within the project. However this paper will focus on the new mooring system by presenting the wave tank test results of the Pelamis wave energy converter model and the new developed mooring system. It can be seen that the new generation of mooring system can significantly reduce the loads on mooring lines and anchors, and reduce the device excursions as a result of the new mooring system when compare to the conventional catenary mooring.

Decoupling loads for nano-instruction set computers

We propose an ISA extension that decouples the data access and register write operations in a load instruction. We describe system and hardware support for decoupled loads. Furthermore, we show how compilers can generate better static instruction schedules by hoisting a decoupled load’s data access above may-alias stores and branches. We find that decoupled loads improve performance with geometric mean speedups of 8.4%.

Table 1: Densities and snow loads for individual levels in 1967 and 1978

The deformation of a 20 m deep firn pit in the accumulation area of Kesselwandferner was surveyed over aperiod of 11 years. Six or seven surveying markers had been installed at each of 14 levels. The survey shows tImt the shear strain rate is independent of depth and the originally circular pit cross section was changed into an ellipse. In the direction of the glacier flow, the diameter was increased, the strain rate being approximately independent of depth. Transverse to the flow, however, the diameter decreased, the strain rate becoming higher as the depth increased. The vertical strain rates responsible for thinning of firn layers decrease with depth.

Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experiment, links to sourcecode of model and grides

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.

The hypoxia that developed in a microtidal estuary following an extreme storm produced dramatic changes in the benthos

Runoff from an extreme storm on 22 March 2010 led, during the next 3 months, to the formation of a pronounced halocline and underlying hypoxia in the upper reaches of the microtidal Swan–Canning Estuary. Benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled between January 2010 and October 2011 at five sites along 10 km of this region. By mid-April, the number of species, total density, Simpson’s evenness index and taxonomic distinctness had declined markedly, crustaceans had disappeared and the densities of annelids and molluscs had declined slightly. These faunal attributes (except Simpson’s index) and species composition did not recover until after the end of the hypoxia. The survival of annelids and loss of crustaceans in this period reflects different sensitivities of these taxa to severe environmental stress. The results emphasise that microtidal estuaries with long residence times are highly vulnerable to the effects of environmental perturbations, particularly during warmer periods of the year.

The hypoxia that developed in a microtidal estuary following an extreme storm produced dramatic changes in the benthos

Runoff from an extreme storm on 22 March 2010 led, during the next 3 months, to the formation of a pronounced halocline and underlying hypoxia in the upper reaches of the microtidal Swan–Canning Estuary. Benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled between January 2010 and October 2011 at five sites along 10 km of this region. By mid-April, the number of species, total density, Simpson’s evenness index and taxonomic distinctness had declined markedly, crustaceans had disappeared and the densities of annelids and molluscs had declined slightly. These faunal attributes (except Simpson’s index) and species composition did not recover until after the end of the hypoxia. The survival of annelids and loss of crustaceans in this period reflects different sensitivities of these taxa to severe environmental stress. The results emphasise that microtidal estuaries with long residence times are highly vulnerable to the effects of environmental perturbations, particularly during warmer periods of the year.

Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.