Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

Buckets, baskets and boots: exhibition event at MERL

Launch event part of Universities Week on Monday 9th Co-researchers from Reading College Learners with Learning Difficulties/Disabilities dept will present their Sensory Objects research in the Museum of English Rural Life (MERL)

Reverse correlation reveals how observers sample visual information when estimating three-dimensional shape

Human observers exhibit large systematic distance-dependent biases when estimating the three-dimensional (3D) shape of objects defined by binocular image disparities. This has led some to question the utility of disparity as a cue to 3D shape and whether accurate estimation of 3D shape is at all possible. Others have argued that accurate perception is possible, but only with large continuous perspective transformations of an object. Using a stimulus that is known to elicit large distance-dependent perceptual bias (random dot stereograms of elliptical cylinders) we show that contrary to these findings the simple adoption of a more naturalistic viewing angle completely eliminates this bias. Using behavioural psychophysics, coupled with a novel surface-based reverse correlation methodology, we show that it is binocular edge and contour information that allows for accurate and precise perception and that observers actively exploit and sample this information when it is available.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to heat stress in a temperate dung fly: negative correlation between basal and induced heat tolerance?

Extreme weather events such as heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. Populations can cope with elevated heat stress by evolving higher basal heat tolerance (evolutionary response) and/or stronger induced heat tolerance (plastic response). However, there is ongoing debate about whether basal and induced heat tolerance are negatively correlated and whether adaptive potential in heat tolerance is sufficient under ongoing climate warming. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of basal and induced heat tolerance, we performed experimental evolution on a temperate source 4 population of the dung fly Sepsis punctum. Offspring of flies adapted to three thermal selection regimes (Hot, Cold and Reference) were subjected to acute heat stress after having been exposed to either a hot-acclimation or non-acclimation pretreatment. As different traits may respond differently to temperature stress, several physiological and life history traits were assessed. Condition dependence of the response was evaluated by exposing juveniles to different levels of developmental (food restriction/rearing density) stress. Heat knockdown times were highest, whereas acclimation effects were lowest in the Hot selection regime, indicating a negative association between basal and induced heat tolerance. However, survival, adult longevity, fecundity and fertility did not show such a pattern. Acclimation had positive effects in heat-shocked flies, but in the absence of heat stress hot-acclimated flies had reduced life spans relative to nonacclimated ones, thereby revealing a potential cost of acclimation. Moreover, body size positively affected heat tolerance and unstressed individuals were less prone to heat stress than stressed flies, offering support for energetic costs associated with heat tolerance. Overall, our results indicate that heat tolerance of temperate insects can evolve under rising temperatures, but this response could be limited by a negative relationship between basal and induced thermotolerance, and may involve some but not other fitness-related traits.

Towards expressive rule induction on IP network event streams

In order to gain insights into events and issues that may cause errors and outages in parts of IP networks, intelligent methods that capture and express causal relationships online (in real-time) are needed. Whereas generalised rule induction has been explored for non-streaming data applications, its application and adaptation on streaming data is mostly undeveloped or based on periodic and ad-hoc training with batch algorithms. Some association rule mining approaches for streaming data do exist, however, they can only express binary causal relationships. This paper presents the ongoing work on Online Generalised Rule Induction (OGRI) in order to create expressive and adaptive rule sets real-time that can be applied to a broad range of applications, including network telemetry data streams.

A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved.

The impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland: a Bayesian chronological analysis using ‘activity events’ as a population proxy

The potential impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on human demography, settlement patterns and culture in Europe and the Near East has emerged as a key theme in current discussion and debate. We test whether this event had an impact on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland, a case study located within the North Atlantic region where the environmental impact of the 8.2 ka event is likely to have been the most severe. By undertaking a Bayesian analysis of the radiocarbon record and using the number of activity events as a proxy for the size of the human population, we find evidence for a dramatic reduction in the Mesolithic population synchronous with the 8.2 ka event. We interpret this as reflecting the demographic collapse of a low density population that lacked the capability to adapt to the rapid onset of new environmental conditions. This impact of the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region lends credence to the possibility of a similar impact on populations in Continental Europe and the Near East.

Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event

Drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, which may alter the composition of ecological communities. Using a functional community metric that describes abundance, life history traits and conservation status, based upon Grime’s CSR (Competitive-Stress tolerant-Ruderal)¬ scheme, we investigated how British butterfly communities changed during an extreme drought in 1995. Throughout Britain, the total abundance of these insects had a significant tendency to increase, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition, particularly in more northerly, wetter sites. Communities tended to shift away from specialist, vulnerable species, and towards generalist, widespread species and, in the year following, communities had yet to return to equilibrium. Importantly, heterogeneity in surrounding landscapes mediated community responses to the drought event. Contrary to expectation, however, community shifts were more extreme in areas of greater topographic diversity, whilst land-cover diversity buffered community changes and limited declines in vulnerable specialist butterflies.

Correlation between vertical misfits and stresses transmitted to implants from metal frameworks

An inappropriate prosthetic fit could cause stress over the interface implant/bone. The objective of this study was to compare stresses transmitted to implants from frameworks cast using different materials and to investigate a possible correlation between vertical misfits and these stresses. Fifteen one-piece cast frameworks simulating bars for fixed prosthesis in a model with five implants were fabricated and arranged into three different groups according to the material used for casting: CP Ti (commercially pure titanium), Co-Cr (cobalt-chromium) or Ni-Cr-Ti (nickel-chromium-titanium) alloys. Each framework was installed over the metal model with all screws tightened to a 10 N cm torque and then, vertical misfits were measured using an optical microscope. The stresses transmitted to implants were measured using quantitative photoelastic analysis in values of maximum shear stress (T), when each framework was tightened to the photoelastic model to a 10 N cm standardized torque. Stress data were statistically analyzed using one-way ANOVA and Tukey`s test and correlation tests were performed using Pearson`s rank correlation (alpha = 0.05). Mean and standard deviation values of vertical misfit are presented for CP Ti (22.40 +/- 9.05 mu m), Co-Cr (66.41 +/- 35.47 mu m) and Ni-Cr-Ti (32.20 +/- 24.47 mu m). Stresses generated by Co-Cr alloy (tau = 7.70 +/- 2.16 kPa) were significantly higher than those generated by CP Ti (tau = 5.86 +/- 1.55 kPa, p = 0.018) and Ni-Cr-Ti alloy (tau =5.74 +/- 3.05 kPa, p = 0.011), which were similar (p = 0.982). Correlations between vertical misfits and stresses around the implants were not significant as for any evaluated materials. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Digital image correlation analysis of the load transfer by implant-supported restorations

This study compared splinted and non-splinted implant-supported prosthesis with and without a distal proximal contact using a digital image correlation method. An epoxy resin model was made with acrylic resin replicas of a mandibular first premolar and second molar and with threaded implants replacing the second premolar and first molar. Splinted and non-splinted metal-ceramic screw-retained crowns were fabricated and loaded with and without the presence of the second molar. A single-camera measuring system was used to record the in-plane deformation on the model surface at a frequency of 1.0 Hz under a load from 0 to 250 N. The images were then analyzed with specialist software to determine the direct (horizontal) and shear strains along the model. Not splinting the crowns resulted in higher stress transfer to the supporting implants when the second molar replica was absent. The presence of a second molar and an effective interproximal contact contributed to lower stress transfer to the supporting structures even for non-splinted restorations. Shear strains were higher in the region between the molars when the second molar was absent, regardless of splinting. The opposite was found for the region between the implants, which had higher shear strain values when the second molar was present. When an effective distal contact is absent, non-splinted implant-supported restorations introduce higher direct strains to the supporting structures under loading. Shear strains appear to be dependent also on the region within the model, with different regions showing different trends in strain changes in the absence of an effective distal contact. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical evaluation and COL2A1 gene analysis in 21 Brazilian families with Stickler syndrome: Identification of novel mutations, further genotype/phenotype correlation, and its implications for the diagnosis

We present clinical and molecular evaluation from a large cohort of patients with Stickler syndrome: 78 individuals from 21 unrelated Brazilian families. The patients were selected in a Hospital with a craniofacial dysmorphology assistance service and clinical diagnosis was based on the presence of cleft palate associated to facial and ocular anomalies of Stickler syndrome. Analysis of COL2A1 gene revealed 9 novel and 4 previously described pathogenic mutations. Except for the mutation c.556G>T (p.Gly186X), all the others were located in the triple helical domain. We did not find genotype/phenotype correlation in relation to type and position of the mutation in the triple helical domain. However, a significantly higher proportion of myopia in patients with mutations located in this domain was observed in relation to those with the mutation in the non-tripe helical domain (c.556G>T; P < 0.04). A trend towards a higher prevalence of glaucoma, although not statistically significant, was observed in the presence of the mutation c.556G>T. It is possible. that this mutation alters the splicing of the mRNA instead of only creating a premature stop codon and therefore it can lead to protein products of different ocular effects. One novel DNA variation (c.1266+7G>C) occurs near a splice site and it was observed to co-segregate with the phenotype in one of the two families with this DNA variation. As in silico analysis predicted that the c.1266+7G>C DNA variation can affect the efficiency of the splicing, we still cannot rule it out as non-pathogenic. Our study also showed that ascertainment through cleft palate associated to other craniofacial signs can be very efficient for identification of Stickler syndrome patients. Still, high frequency of familial cases and high frequency of underdevelopment of distal lateral tibial epiphyses observed in our patients suggested that the inclusion of this information can improve the clinical diagnosis of Stickler syndrome. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

An event of stratospheric air intrusion and its associated secondary surface cyclogenesis over the South Atlantic Ocean

This work presents an analysis of a lowermost stratospheric air intrusion event over the coast of Brazil, which may have been responsible for a secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The surface cyclone initiated at 0600 UTC 17 April 1999 in a cold air mass in the rear of a cold front after a primary cyclone developed over the same region. The analysis of the secondary cyclone revealed the presence of lowermost stratospheric air intrusion characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV), dry air, and high concentration of ozone in atmospheric column. The system developed on the eastern side of an upper level core of PV anomaly, which induced a cyclonic wind circulation at lower levels and favored the onset of the secondary cyclone. In midlevels (500 hPa), the cutoff low development contributed to reduce the propagation speed of the wave pattern. This feature seemed to (1) allow the low-level cold/dry air to heat/moisten associated with sensible and latent fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, which intensified a baroclinic zone parallel to the coast, and (2) contribute to the long duration of the system. The present analysis indicates that this secondary cyclone development could be the result of the coupling between the PV anomaly in the upper levels and low-level air-sea interaction.

Regional representativity of AERONET observation sites during the biomass burning season in South America determined by correlation studies with MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth

This paper presents an analysis of ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observations by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) in South America from 2001 to 2007 in comparison with the satellite AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), aboard TERRA and AQUA satellites. Data of 12 observation sites were used with primary interest in AERONET sites located in or downwind of areas with high biomass burning activity and with measurements available for the full time range. Fires cause the predominant carbonaceous aerosol emission signal during the dry season in South America and are therefore a special focus of this study. Interannual and seasonal behavior of the observed AOD at different sites were investigated, showing clear differences between purely fire and urban influenced sites. An intercomparison of AERONET and MODIS AOD annual correlations revealed that neither an interannual long-term trend may be observed nor that correlations differ significantly owing to different overpass times of TERRA and AQUA. Individual anisotropic representativity areas for each AERONET site were derived by correlating daily AOD of each site for all years with available individual MODIS AOD pixels gridded to 1 degrees x 1 degrees. Results showed that for many sites a good AOD correlation (R(2) > 0.5) persists for large, often strongly anisotropic, areas. The climatological areas of common regional aerosol regimes often extend over several hundreds of kilometers, sometimes far across national boundaries. As a practical application, these strongly inhomogeneous and anisotropic areas of influence are being implemented in the tropospheric aerosol data assimilation system of the Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport Model coupled to the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS) at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). This new information promises an improved exploitation of local site sampling and, thus, chemical weather forecast.

Correlation between citric acid and nitrate metabolisms during CAM cycle in the atmospheric bromeliad Tillandsia pohliana

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) confers crucial adaptations for plants living under frequent environmental stresses. A wide metabolic plasticity can be found among CAM species regarding the type of storage carbohydrate, organic acid accumulated at night and decarboxylating system. Consequently, many aspects of the CAM pathway control are still elusive while the impact of this photosynthetic adaptation on nitrogen metabolism has remained largely unexplored. In this study, we investigated a possible link between the CAM cycle and the nitrogen assimilation in the atmospheric bromeliad Tillandsia pohliana by simultaneously characterizing the diel changes in key enzyme activities and metabolite levels of both organic acid and nitrate metabolisms. The results revealed that T. pohliana performed a typical CAM cycle in which phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase phosphorylation seemed to play a crucial role to avoid futile cycles of carboxylation and decarboxylation. Unlike all other bromeliads previously investigated, almost equimolar concentrations of malate and citrate were accumulated at night. Moreover, a marked nocturnal depletion in the starch reservoirs and an atypical pattern of nitrate reduction restricted to the nighttime were also observed. Since reduction and assimilation of nitrate requires a massive supply of reducing power and energy and considering that T. pohliana lives overexposed to the sunlight, we hypothesize that citrate decarboxylation might be an accessory mechanism to increase internal CO(2) concentration during the day while its biosynthesis could provide NADH and ATP for nocturnal assimilation of nitrate. Therefore, besides delivering photoprotection during the day, citrate might represent a key component connecting both CAM pathway and nitrogen metabolism in T. pohliana: a scenario that certainly deserves further study not only in this species but also in other CAM plants that nocturnally accumulate citrate. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Environmental modulation of ethanol-induced locomotor activity: Correlation with neuronal activity in distinct brain regions of adolescent and adult Swiss mice

Drug abuse is a concerning health problem in adults and has been recognized as a major problem in adolescents. induction of immediate-early genes (IEG), such as c-Fos or Egr-1, is used to identify brain areas that become activated in response to various stimuli, including addictive drugs. It is known that the environment can alter the response to drugs of abuse. Accordingly, environmental cues may trigger drug-seeking behavior when the drug is repeatedly administered in a given environment. The goal of this study was first to examine for age differences in context-dependent sensitization and then evaluate IEG expression in different brain regions. For this, groups of mice received i.p. ethanol (2.0 g/kg) or saline in the test apparatus, while other groups received the solutions in the home cage, for 15 days. One week after this treatment phase, mice were challenged with ethanol injection. Acutely, ethanol increased both locomotor activity and IEG expression in different brain regions, indistinctly, in adolescent and adult mice. However, adults exhibited a typical context-dependent behavioral sensitization following repeated ethanol treatment, while adolescent mice presented gradually smaller locomotion across treatment, when ethanol was administered in a paired regimen with environment. Conversely, ethanol-treated adolescents expressed context-independent behavioral sensitization. Overall, repeated ethanol administration desensitized IEG expression in both adolescent and adult mice, but this effect was greatest in the nucleus accumbens and prefrontal cortex of adolescents treated in the context-dependent paradigm. These results suggest developmental differences in the sensitivity to the conditioned and unconditioned locomotor effects of ethanol. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.