Modelling nitrogen fluxes from the land surface to the coastal zone in European systems: the perspective of the INCA project

This paper describes the results and conclusions of the INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European CAtchments) project and sets the findings in the context of the ELOISE (European Land-Ocean Interaction Studies) programme. The INCA project was concerned with the development of a generic model of the major factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in European river systems, thereby providing a tool (a) to aid the scientific understanding of nitrogen transport and retention in catchments and (b) for river-basin management and policy-making. The findings of the study highlight the heterogeneity of the factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in freshwater systems. Nonetheless, the INCA model was able to simulate the in-stream nitrogen concentrations and fluxes observed at annual and seasonal timescales in Arctic, Continental and Maritime-Temperate regimes. This result suggests that the data requirements and structural complexity of the INCA model are appropriate to simulate nitrogen fluxes across a wide range of European freshwater environments. This is a major requirement for the production of coupled fiver-estuary-coastal shelf models for the management of our aquatic environment. With regard to river-basin management, to achieve an efficient reduction in nutrient fluxes from the land to the estuarine and coastal zone, the model simulations suggest that management options must be adaptable to the prevailing environmental and socio-economic factors in individual catchments: 'Blanket approaches' to environmental policy appear too simple. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PRISM and ENES: a European approach to Earth system modelling

Europe's widely distributed climate modelling expertise, now organized in the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES), is both a strength and a challenge. Recognizing this, the European Union's Program for Integrated Earth System Modelling (PRISM) infrastructure project aims at designing a flexible and friendly user environment to assemble, run and post-process Earth System models. PRISM was started in December 2001 with a duration of three years. This paper presents the major stages of PRISM, including: (1) the definition and promotion of scientific and technical standards to increase component modularity; (2) the development of an end-to-end software environment (graphical user interface, coupling and I/O system, diagnostics, visualization) to launch, monitor and analyse complex Earth system models built around state-of-art community component models (atmosphere, ocean, atmospheric chemistry, ocean bio-chemistry, sea-ice, land-surface); and (3) testing and quality standards to ensure high-performance computing performance on a variety of platforms. PRISM is emerging as a core strategic software infrastructure for building the European research area in Earth system sciences. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating a new LISFLOOD-FP formulation with data from the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK

Two-dimensional flood inundation modelling is a widely used tool to aid flood risk management. In urban areas, where asset value and population density are greatest, the model spatial resolution required to represent flows through a typical street network (i.e. < 10m) often results in impractical computational cost at the whole city scale. Explicit diffusive storage cell models become very inefficient at such high resolutions, relative to shallow water models, because the stable time step in such schemes scales as a quadratic of resolution. This paper presents the calibration and evaluation of a recently developed new formulation of the LISFLOOD-FP model, where stability is controlled by the Courant–Freidrichs–Levy condition for the shallow water equations, such that, the stable time step instead scales linearly with resolution. The case study used is based on observations during the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK. Aerial photography is available for model evaluation on three separate days from the 24th to the 31st of July. The model covered a 3.6 km by 2 km domain and was calibrated using gauge data from high flows during the previous month. The new formulation was benchmarked against the original version of the model at 20 m and 40 m resolutions, demonstrating equally accurate performance given the available validation data but at 67x faster computation time. The July event was then simulated at the 2 m resolution of the available airborne LiDAR DEM. This resulted in a significantly more accurate simulation of the drying dynamics compared to that simulated by the coarse resolution models, although estimates of peak inundation depth were similar.

Effects of patch size and density on flower visitation and seed set of wild plants: a pan-European approach

1. Habitat fragmentation can affect pollinator and plant population structure in terms of species composition, abundance, area covered and density of flowering plants. This, in turn, may affect pollinator visitation frequency, pollen deposition, seed set and plant fitness. 2. A reduction in the quantity of flower visits can be coupled with a reduction in the quality of pollination service and hence the plants’ overall reproductive success and long-term survival. Understanding the relationship between plant population size and⁄ or isolation and pollination limitation is of fundamental importance for plant conservation. 3. Weexamined flower visitation and seed set of 10 different plant species fromfive European countries to investigate the general effects of plant populations size and density, both within (patch level) and between populations (population level), on seed set and pollination limitation. 4. Wefound evidence that the effects of area and density of flowering plant assemblages were generally more pronounced at the patch level than at the population level. We also found that patch and population level together influenced flower visitation and seed set, and the latter increased with increasing patch area and density, but this effect was only apparent in small populations. 5. Synthesis. By using an extensive pan-European data set on flower visitation and seed set we have identified a general pattern in the interplay between the attractiveness of flowering plant patches for pollinators and density dependence of flower visitation, and also a strong plant species-specific response to habitat fragmentation effects. This can guide efforts to conserve plant–pollinator interactions, ecosystem functioning and plant fitness in fragmented habitats.

Design for design: support for creative practice in computer-supported collaborative work (CSCW) in design

This paper describes a novel methodology for observing and analysing collaborative design by using the concepts of cognitive dimensions related to concept-based misfit analysis. The study aims at gaining an insight into support for creative practice of graphical communication in collaborative design processes of designers while sketching within a shared white board and audio conferencing environment. Empirical data on design processes have been obtained from observation of groups of student designers solving an interior space-planning problem of a lounge-diner in a shared virtual environment. The results of the study provide recommendations for the design and development of interactive systems to support such collaborative design activities.

From activity to active learning: drawing and dialogue interaction in virtual learning environments for computer-supported collaborative work in design.

Virtual learning environments (VLEs) would appear to be particular effective in computer-supported collaborative work (CSCW) for active learning. Most research studies looking at computer-supported collaborative design have focused on either synchronous or asynchronous modes of communication, but near-synchronous working has received relatively little attention. Yet it could be argued that near-synchronous communication encourages creative, rhetorical and critical exchanges of ideas, building on each other’s contributions. Furthermore, although many researchers have carried out studies on collaborative design protocol, argumentation and constructive interaction, little is known about the interaction between drawing and dialogue in near-synchronous collaborative design. The paper reports the first stage of an investigation into the requirements for the design and development of interactive systems to support the learning of collaborative design activities. The aim of the study is to understand the collaborative design processes while sketching in a shared white board and audio conferencing media. Empirical data on design processes have been obtained from observation of seven sessions with groups of design students solving an interior space-planning problem of a lounge-diner in a virtual learning environment, Lyceum, an in-house software developed by the Open University to support its students in collaborative learning.

Impact of hydrographic data assimilation on the modelled Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Here we make an initial step toward the development of an ocean assimilation system that can constrain the modelled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to support climate predictions. A detailed comparison is presented of 1° and 1/4° resolution global model simulations with and without sequential data assimilation, to the observations and transport estimates from the RAPID mooring array across 26.5° N in the Atlantic. Comparisons of modelled water properties with the observations from the merged RAPID boundary arrays demonstrate the ability of in situ data assimilation to accurately constrain the east-west density gradient between these mooring arrays. However, the presence of an unconstrained "western boundary wedge" between Abaco Island and the RAPID mooring site WB2 (16 km offshore) leads to the intensification of an erroneous southwards flow in this region when in situ data are assimilated. The result is an overly intense southward upper mid-ocean transport (0–1100 m) as compared to the estimates derived from the RAPID array. Correction of upper layer zonal density gradients is found to compensate mostly for a weak subtropical gyre circulation in the free model run (i.e. with no assimilation). Despite the important changes to the density structure and transports in the upper layer imposed by the assimilation, very little change is found in the amplitude and sub-seasonal variability of the AMOC. This shows that assimilation of upper layer density information projects mainly on the gyre circulation with little effect on the AMOC at 26° N due to the absence of corrections to density gradients below 2000 m (the maximum depth of Argo). The sensitivity to initial conditions was explored through two additional experiments using a climatological initial condition. These experiments showed that the weak bias in gyre intensity in the control simulation (without data assimilation) develops over a period of about 6 months, but does so independently from the overturning, with no change to the AMOC. However, differences in the properties and volume transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) persisted throughout the 3 year simulations resulting in a difference of 3 Sv in AMOC intensity. The persistence of these dense water anomalies and their influence on the AMOC is promising for the development of decadal forecasting capabilities. The results suggest that the deeper waters must be accurately reproduced in order to constrain the AMOC.

Data assimilation for marine monitoring and prediction: The MERCATOR operational assimilation systems and the MERSEA developments

During the past 15 years, a number of initiatives have been undertaken at national level to develop ocean forecasting systems operating at regional and/or global scales. The co-ordination between these efforts has been organized internationally through the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). The French MERCATOR project is one of the leading participants in GODAE. The MERCATOR systems routinely assimilate a variety of observations such as multi-satellite altimeter data, sea-surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles, focusing on high-resolution scales of the ocean dynamics. The assimilation strategy in MERCATOR is based on a hierarchy of methods of increasing sophistication including optimal interpolation, Kalman filtering and variational methods, which are progressively deployed through the Syst`eme d’Assimilation MERCATOR (SAM) series. SAM-1 is based on a reduced-order optimal interpolation which can be operated using ‘altimetry-only’ or ‘multi-data’ set-ups; it relies on the concept of separability, assuming that the correlations can be separated into a product of horizontal and vertical contributions. The second release, SAM-2, is being developed to include new features from the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, such as three-dimensional, multivariate error modes and adaptivity schemes. The third one, SAM-3, considers variational methods such as the incremental four-dimensional variational algorithm. Most operational forecasting systems evaluated during GODAE are based on least-squares statistical estimation assuming Gaussian errors. In the framework of the EU MERSEA (Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area) project, research is being conducted to prepare the next-generation operational ocean monitoring and forecasting systems. The research effort will explore nonlinear assimilation formulations to overcome limitations of the current systems. This paper provides an overview of the developments conducted in MERSEA with the SEEK filter, the Ensemble Kalman filter and the sequential importance re-sampling filter.

Current intakes of EPA and DHA in European populations and the potential of animal-derived foods to increase them

The beneficial effects of long-chain (C chain >= 20) n-3 PUFA are well documented and, overall, increased intake reduces risk of CVD. Recent evidence also points to a role in reducing, age-related decline in cognitive function. The two key fatty acids are EPA (20:5) and DHA (22:6), with current UK recommendation for adults being 450 mg EPA + DHA/d. Whilst some EPA and DHA can be synthesised in vivo from alpha-linolenic acid, recent data indicate this source to be very limited, Suggesting that EPA and DHA should be classified as dietary essentials. In many parts of Europe the daily intake of EPA + DHA by adults and especially young adults (18-24 years) is < 100 mg/d, since many never eat oily fish. Poultry meat contributes small but worthwhile amounts of EPA+DHA. Studies to enrich the EPA+DHA content of animal-derived foods mainly use fish oil in the diet of the animal. Recent work has shown that such enrichment has the potential to provide to the UK adult diet a daily intake of EPA+DHA of about 230 mg, with poultry meat providing the largest amount (74 mg). There are. however. concerns that the Continued and possibly increased use of fish oils in animals diets is not Sustainable and alternative approaches are being examined, including the genetic modification of certain plants to allow them to synthesise EPA and DHA from shorter-chain precursors.

Current intakes of EPA and DHA in European populations and the potential of animal-derived foods to increase them

The beneficial effects of long-chain (C chain >= 20) n-3 PUFA are well documented and, overall, increased intake reduces risk of CVD. Recent evidence also points to a role in reducing, age-related decline in cognitive function. The two key fatty acids are EPA (20:5) and DHA (22:6), with current UK recommendation for adults being 450 mg EPA + DHA/d. Whilst some EPA and DHA can be synthesised in vivo from alpha-linolenic acid, recent data indicate this source to be very limited, Suggesting that EPA and DHA should be classified as dietary essentials. In many parts of Europe the daily intake of EPA + DHA by adults and especially young adults (18-24 years) is < 100 mg/d, since many never eat oily fish. Poultry meat contributes small but worthwhile amounts of EPA+DHA. Studies to enrich the EPA+DHA content of animal-derived foods mainly use fish oil in the diet of the animal. Recent work has shown that such enrichment has the potential to provide to the UK adult diet a daily intake of EPA+DHA of about 230 mg, with poultry meat providing the largest amount (74 mg). There are. however. concerns that the Continued and possibly increased use of fish oils in animals diets is not Sustainable and alternative approaches are being examined, including the genetic modification of certain plants to allow them to synthesise EPA and DHA from shorter-chain precursors.

Food scares and trust: A European study

The complex interactions between the determinants of food purchase under risk are explored using the SPARTA model, based on the theory of planned behaviour, and estimated through a combination of multivariate statistical techniques. The application investigates chicken consumption choices in two scenarios: ( a) a 'standard' purchasing situation; and (b) following a hypothetical Salmonella scare. The data are from a nationally representative survey of 2,725 respondents from five European countries: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Results show that the effects and interactions of behavioural determinants vary significantly within Europe. Only in the case of a food scare do risk perceptions and trust come into play. The policy priority should be on building and maintaining trust in food and health authorities and research institutions, while food chain actors could mitigate the consequences of a food scare through public trust. No relationship is found between socio-demographic variables and consumer trust in food safety information.

The changing structure of diets in the European Union in relation to healthy eating guidelines

Objective: Our objective in this paper is to assess diets in the European Union (EU) in relation to the recommendations of the recent World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization expert consultation and to show how diets have changed between 1961 and 2001. Data and methods: Computations make use of FAOSTAT data on food availability at country level linked to a food composition database to convert foods to nutrients. We further explore the growing similarity of diets in the EU by making use of a consumption similarity index. The index provides a single number measure of dietary overlap between countries. Results: The data confirm the excessive consumption by almost all countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugars, and the convergence of nutrient intakes across the EU. Whereas in 1961 diets in several European countries were more similar to US diets than to those of other European countries, this is no longer the case; moreover, while EU diets have become more homogeneous, the EU as a whole and the USA have become less similar over time. Conclusions: Although the dominant cause of greater similarity in EU diets over the period studied is increased intakes in Mediterranean countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugar, also important are reductions in saturated fat and sugar in some Northern European countries. This suggests that healthy eating messages are finally having an impact on diets; a distinctly European diet may also be emerging.

Influence-matrix diagnostic of a data assimilation system

The influence matrix is used in ordinary least-squares applications for monitoring statistical multiple-regression analyses. Concepts related to the influence matrix provide diagnostics on the influence of individual data on the analysis - the analysis change that would occur by leaving one observation out, and the effective information content (degrees of freedom for signal) in any sub-set of the analysed data. In this paper, the corresponding concepts have been derived in the context of linear statistical data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. An approximate method to compute the diagonal elements of the influence matrix (the self-sensitivities) has been developed for a large-dimension variational data assimilation system (the four-dimensional variational system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). Results show that, in the boreal spring 2003 operational system, 15% of the global influence is due to the assimilated observations in any one analysis, and the complementary 85% is the influence of the prior (background) information, a short-range forecast containing information from earlier assimilated observations. About 25% of the observational information is currently provided by surface-based observing systems, and 75% by satellite systems. Low-influence data points usually occur in data-rich areas, while high-influence data points are in data-sparse areas or in dynamically active regions. Background-error correlations also play an important role: high correlation diminishes the observation influence and amplifies the importance of the surrounding real and pseudo observations (prior information in observation space). Incorrect specifications of background and observation-error covariance matrices can be identified, interpreted and better understood by the use of influence-matrix diagnostics for the variety of observation types and observed variables used in the data assimilation system. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

Friends or relatives? Phylogenetics and species delimitation in the controversial European orchid Genus ophrys

Background and Aims Highly variable, yet possibly convergent, morphology and lack of sequence variation have severely hindered production of a robust phylogenetic framework for the genus Ophrys. The aim of this study is to produce this framework as a basis for more rigorous species delimitation and conservation recommendations. Methods Nuclear and plastid DNA sequencing and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) were performed on 85 accessions of Ophrys, spanning the full range of species aggregates currently recognized. Data were analysed using a combination of parsimony and Bayesian tree-building techniques and by principal coordinates analysis. Key Results Complementary phylogenetic analyses and ordinations using nuclear, plastid and AFLP datasets identify ten genetically distinct groups (six robust) within the genus that may in turn be grouped into three sections (treated as subgenera by some authors). Additionally, genetic evidence is provided for a close relationship between the O. tenthredinifera, O. bombyliflora and O. speculum groups. The combination of these analytical techniques provides new insights into Ophrys systematics, notably recognition of the novel O. umbilicata group. Conclusions Heterogeneous copies of the nuclear ITS region show that some putative Ophrys species arose through hybridization rather than divergent speciation. The supposedly highly specific pseudocopulatory pollination syndrome of Ophrys is demonstrably 'leaky', suggesting that the genus has been substantially over-divided at the species level.