Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Visual assessment of pedestrian crashes

Of the numerous factors that play a role in fatal pedestrian collisions, the time of day, day of the week, and time of year can be significant determinants. More than 60% of all pedestrian collisions in 2007 occurred at night, despite the presumed decrease in both pedestrian and automobile exposure during the night. Although this trend is partially explained by factors such as fatigue and alcohol consumption, prior analysis of the Fatality Analysis Reporting System database suggests that pedestrian fatalities increase as light decreases after controlling for other factors. This study applies graphical cross-tabulation, a novel visual assessment approach, to explore the relationships among collision variables. The results reveal that twilight and the first hour of darkness typically observe the greatest frequency of pedestrian fatal collisions. These hours are not necessarily the most risky on a per mile travelled basis, however, because pedestrian volumes are often still high. Additional analysis is needed to quantify the extent to which pedestrian exposure (walking/crossing activity) in these time periods plays a role in pedestrian crash involvement. Weekly patterns of pedestrian fatal collisions vary by time of year due to the seasonal changes in sunset time. In December, collisions are concentrated around twilight and the first hour of darkness throughout the week while, in June, collisions are most heavily concentrated around twilight and the first hours of darkness on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday nights in June may be the most dangerous times for pedestrians. Knowing when pedestrian risk is highest is critically important for formulating effective mitigation strategies and for efficiently investing safety funds. This applied visual approach is a helpful tool for researchers intending to communicate with policy-makers and to identify relationships that can then be tested with more sophisticated statistical tools.

Group segmentation during object tracking using optical flow discontinuities

Within a surveillance video, occlusions are commonplace, and accurately resolving these occlusions is key when seeking to accurately track objects. The challenge of accurately segmenting objects is further complicated by the fact that within many real-world surveillance environments, the objects appear very similar. For example, footage of pedestrians in a city environment will consist of many people wearing dark suits. In this paper, we propose a novel technique to segment groups and resolve occlusions using optical flow discontinuities. We demonstrate that the ratio of continuous to discontinuous pixels within a region can be used to locate the overlapping edges, and incorporate this into an object tracking framework. Results on a portion of the ETISEO database show that the proposed algorithm results in improved tracking performance overall, and improved tracking within occlusions.

Managing driver fatigue : education or motivation?

Fatigue has been recognised as the primary contributing factor in approximately 15% of all fatal road crashes in Australia. To develop effective countermeasures for managing fatigue, this study investigates why drivers continue to drive when sleepy, and driver perceptions and behaviours in regards to countermeasures. Based on responses from 305 Australian drivers, it was identified that the major reasons why these participants continued to drive when sleepy were: wanting to get to their destination; being close to home; and time factors. Participants’ perceptions and use of 18 fatigue countermeasures were investigated. It was found that participants perceived the safest strategies, including stopping and sleeping, swapping drivers and stopping for a quick nap, to be the most effective countermeasures. However, it appeared that their knowledge of safe countermeasures did not translate into their use of these strategies. For example, although the drivers perceived stopping for a quick nap to be an effective countermeasure, they reported more frequent use of less safe methods such as stopping to eat or drink and winding down the window. This finding suggests that, while practitioners should continue educating drivers, they may need a greater focus on motivating drivers to implement safe fatigue countermeasures.

Online service delivery models : an international comparison in the public sector

Governments around the world are facing the challenge of responding to increased expectations by their customers with regard to public service delivery. Citizens, for example, expect governments to provide better and more efficient electronic services on the Web in an integrated way. Online portals have become the approach of choice in online service delivery to meet these requirements and become more customer-focussed. This study describes and analyses existing variants of online service delivery models based upon an empirical study and provides valuable insights for researchers and practitioners in government. For this study, we have conducted interviews with senior management representatives from five international governments. Based on our findings, we distinguish three different classes of service delivery models. We describe and characterise each of these models in detail and provide an in-depth discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches.

Differences between in vitro viability and differentiation and in vivo bone-forming efficacy of human mesenchymal stem cells cultured on PCL-TCP scaffolds

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) possess great therapeutic potential for the treatment of bone disease and fracture non-union. Too often however, in vitro evidence alone of the interaction between hMSCs and the biomaterial of choice is used as justification for continued development of the material into the clinic. Clearly for hMSC-based regenerative medicine to be successful for the treatment of orthopaedic trauma, it is crucial to transplant hMSCs with a suitable carrier that facilitates their survival, optimal proliferation and osteogenic differentiation in vitro and in vivo. This motivated us to evaluate the use of polycaprolactone-20% tricalcium phosphate (PCL-TCP) scaffolds produced by fused deposition modeling for the delivery of hMSCs. When hMSCs were cultured on the PCL-TCP scaffolds and imaged by a combination of phase contrast, scanning electron and confocal laser microscopy, we observed five distinct stages of colonization over a 21-day period that were characterized by cell attachment, spreading, cellular bridging, the formation of a dense cellular mass and the accumulation of a mineralized extracellular matrix when induced with osteogenic stimulants. Having established that PCL-TCP scaffolds are able to support hMSC proliferation and osteogenic differentiation, we next tested the in vivo efficacy of hMSC-loaded PCL-TCP scaffolds in nude rat critical-sized femoral defects. We found that fluorescently labeled hMSCs survived in the defect site for up to 3 weeks post-transplantation. However, only 50% of the femoral defects treated with hMSCs responded favorably as determined by new bone volume. As such, we show that verification of hMSC viability and differentiation in vitro is not sufficient to predict the efficacy of transplanted stem cells to consistently promote bone formation in orthotopic defects in vivo.

An investigation of the relationship between subjective sleep quality, loneliness and mood in an Australian sample: Can daily routine explain the links?

Background: Loneliness and low mood are associated with significant negative health outcomes including poor sleep, but the strength of the evidence underlying these associations varies. There is strong evidence that poor sleep quality and low mood are linked, but only emerging evidence that loneliness and poor sleep are associated. Aims: To independently replicate the finding that loneliness and poor subjective sleep quality are associated and to extend past research by investigating lifestyle regularity as a possible mediator of relationships, since lifestyle regularity has been linked to loneliness and poor sleep. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, 97 adults completed standardized measures of loneliness, lifestyle regularity, subjective sleep quality and mood. Results: Loneliness was a significant predictor of sleep quality. Lifestyle regularity was not a predictor of, nor associated with, mood, sleep quality or loneliness. Conclusions: This study provides an important independent replication of the association between poor sleep and loneliness. However, the mechanism underlying this link remains unclear. A theoretically plausible mechanism for this link, lifestyle regularity, does not explain the relationship between loneliness and poor sleep. The nexus between loneliness and poor sleep is unlikely to be broken by altering the social rhythm of patients who present with poor sleep and loneliness.

Monitoring and regulatory role of the balanced scorecard in controlling organisational identities

This thesis employs the theoretical fusion of disciplinary knowledge, interlacing an analysis from both functional and interpretive frameworks and applies these paradigms to three concepts—organisational identity, the balanced scorecard performance measurement system, and control. As an applied thesis, this study highlights how particular public sector organisations are using a range of multi-disciplinary forms of knowledge constructed for their needs to achieve practical outcomes. Practical evidence of this study is not bound by a single disciplinary field or the concerns raised by academics about the rigorous application of academic knowledge. The study’s value lies in its ability to explore how current communication and accounting knowledge is being used for practical purposes in organisational life. The main focus of this thesis is on identities in an organisational communication context. In exploring the theoretical and practical challenges, the research questions for this thesis were formulated as: 1. Is it possible to effectively control identities in organisations by the use of an integrated performance measurement system—the balanced scorecard—and if so, how? 2. What is the relationship between identities and an integrated performance measurement system—the balanced scorecard—in the identity construction process? Identities in the organisational context have been extensively discussed in graphic design, corporate communication and marketing, strategic management, organisational behaviour, and social psychology literatures. Corporate identity is the self-presentation of the personality of an organisation (Van Riel, 1995; Van Riel & Balmer, 1997), and organisational identity is the statement of central characteristics described by members (Albert & Whetten, 2003). In this study, identity management is positioned as a strategically complex task, embracing not only logo and name, but also multiple dimensions, levels and facets of organisational life. Responding to the collaborative efforts of researchers and practitioners in identity conceptualisation and methodological approaches, this dissertation argues that analysis can be achieved through the use of an integrated framework of identity products, patternings and processes (Cornelissen, Haslam, & Balmer, 2007), transforming conceptualisations of corporate identity, organisational identity and identification studies. Likewise, the performance measurement literature from the accounting field now emphasises the importance of ‘soft’ non-financial measures in gauging performance—potentially allowing the monitoring and regulation of ‘collective’ identities (Cornelissen et al., 2007). The balanced scorecard (BSC) (Kaplan & Norton, 1996a), as the selected integrated performance measurement system, quantifies organisational performance under the four perspectives of finance, customer, internal process, and learning and growth. Broadening the traditional performance measurement boundary, the BSC transforms how organisations perceived themselves (Vaivio, 2007). The rhetorical and communicative value of the BSC has also been emphasised in organisational self-understanding (Malina, Nørreklit, & Selto, 2007; Malmi, 2001; Norreklit, 2000, 2003). Thus, this study establishes a theoretical connection between the controlling effects of the BSC and organisational identity construction. Common to both literatures, the aspects of control became the focus of this dissertation, as ‘the exercise or act of achieving a goal’ (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985, p. 180). This study explores not only traditional technical and bureaucratic control (Edwards, 1981), but also concertive control (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985), shifting the locus of control to employees who make their own decisions towards desired organisational premises (Simon, 1976). The controlling effects on collective identities are explored through the lens of the rhetorical frames mobilised through the power of organisational enthymemes (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985) and identification processes (Ashforth, Harrison, & Corley, 2008). In operationalising the concept of control, two guiding questions were developed to support the research questions: 1.1 How does the use of the balanced scorecard monitor identities in public sector organisations? 1.2 How does the use of the balanced scorecard regulate identities in public sector organisations? This study adopts qualitative multiple case studies using ethnographic techniques. Data were gathered from interviews of 41 managers, organisational documents, and participant observation from 2003 to 2008, to inform an understanding of organisational practices and members’ perceptions in the five cases of two public sector organisations in Australia. Drawing on the functional and interpretive paradigms, the effective design and use of the systems, as well as the understanding of shared meanings of identities and identifications are simultaneously recognised. The analytical structure guided by the ‘bracketing’ (Lewis & Grimes, 1999) and ‘interplay’ strategies (Schultz & Hatch, 1996) preserved, connected and contrasted the unique findings from the multi-paradigms. The ‘temporal bracketing’ strategy (Langley, 1999) from the process view supports the comparative exploration of the analysis over the periods under study. The findings suggest that the effective use of the BSC can monitor and regulate identity products, patternings and processes. In monitoring identities, the flexible BSC framework allowed the case study organisations to monitor various aspects of finance, customer, improvement and organisational capability that included identity dimensions. Such inclusion legitimises identity management as organisational performance. In regulating identities, the use of the BSC created a mechanism to form collective identities by articulating various perspectives and causal linkages, and through the cascading and alignment of multiple scorecards. The BSC—directly reflecting organisationally valued premises and legitimised symbols—acted as an identity product of communication, visual symbols and behavioural guidance. The selective promotion of the BSC measures filtered organisational focus to shape unique identity multiplicity and characteristics within the cases. Further, the use of the BSC facilitated the assimilation of multiple identities by controlling the direction and strength of identifications, engaging different groups of members. More specifically, the tight authority of the BSC framework and systems are explained both by technical and bureaucratic controls, while subtle communication of organisational premises and information filtering is achieved through concertive control. This study confirms that these macro top-down controls mediated the sensebreaking and sensegiving process of organisational identification, supporting research by Ashforth, Harrison and Corley (2008). This study pays attention to members’ power of self-regulation, filling minor premises of the derived logic of their organisation through the playing out of organisational enthymemes (Tompkins & Cheney, 1985). Members are then encouraged to make their own decisions towards the organisational premises embedded in the BSC, through the micro bottom-up identification processes including: enacting organisationally valued identities; sensemaking; and the construction of identity narratives aligned with those organisationally valued premises. Within the process, the self-referential effect of communication encouraged members to believe the organisational messages embedded in the BSC in transforming collective and individual identities. Therefore, communication through the use of the BSC continued the self-producing of normative performance mechanisms, established meanings of identities, and enabled members’ self-regulation in identity construction. Further, this research establishes the relationship between identity and the use of the BSC in terms of identity multiplicity and attributes. The BSC framework constrained and enabled case study organisations and members to monitor and regulate identity multiplicity across a number of dimensions, levels and facets. The use of the BSC constantly heightened the identity attributes of distinctiveness, relativity, visibility, fluidity and manageability in identity construction over time. Overall, this research explains the reciprocal controlling relationships of multiple structures in organisations to achieve a goal. It bridges the gap among corporate and organisational identity theories by adopting Cornelissen, Haslam and Balmer’s (2007) integrated identity framework, and reduces the gap in understanding between identity and performance measurement studies. Parallel review of the process of monitoring and regulating identities from both literatures synthesised the theoretical strengths of both to conceptualise and operationalise identities. This study extends the discussion on positioning identity, culture, commitment, and image and reputation measures in integrated performance measurement systems as organisational capital. Further, this study applies understanding of the multiple forms of control (Edwards, 1979; Tompkins & Cheney, 1985), emphasising the power of organisational members in identification processes, using the notion of rhetorical organisational enthymemes. This highlights the value of the collaborative theoretical power of identity, communication and performance measurement frameworks. These case studies provide practical insights about the public sector where existing bureaucracy and desired organisational identity directions are competing within a large organisational setting. Further research on personal identity and simple control in organisations that fully cascade the BSC down to individual members would provide enriched data. The extended application of the conceptual framework to other public and private sector organisations with a longitudinal view will also contribute to further theory building.

Building an Australian user community for VIVO

The Australian National Data Service (ANDS) was established in 2008 and aims to: influence national policy in the area of data management in the Australian research community; inform best practice for the curation of data, and, transform the disparate collections of research data around Australia into a cohesive collection of research resources One high profile ANDS activity is to establish the population of Research Data Australia, a set of web pages describing data collections produced by or relevant to Australian researchers. It is designed to promote visibility of research data collections in search engines, in order to encourage their re-use. As part of activities associated with the Australian National Data Service, an increasing number of Australian Universities are choosing to implement VIVO, not as a platform to profile information about researchers, but as a 'metadata store' platform to profile information about institutional research data sets, both locally and as part of a national data commons. To date, the University of Melbourne, Griffith University, the Queensland University of Technology, and the University of Western Australia have all chosen to implement VIVO, with interest from other Universities growing.

Which components of heart failure programs are effective? A meta-analysis of the outcomes of structured telephone support or telemonitoring as the primary component of heart failure management in 9,560 patients (Abridged Cochrane Review)

Aims--Telemonitoring (TM) and structured telephone support (STS) have the potential to deliver specialised management to more patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), but their efficacy is still to be proven. Objectives To review randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of TM or STS on all- cause mortality and all-cause and CHF-related hospitalisations in patients with CHF, as a non-invasive remote model of specialised disease-management intervention.--Methods and Results--Data sources:We searched 15 electronic databases and hand-searched bibliographies of relevant studies, systematic reviews, and meeting abstracts. Two reviewers independently extracted all data. Study eligibility and participants: We included any randomised controlled trials (RCT) comparing TM or STS to usual care of patients with CHF. Studies that included intensified management with additional home or clinic visits were excluded. Synthesis: Primary outcomes (mortality and hospitalisations) were analysed; secondary outcomes (cost, length of stay, quality of life) were tabulated.--Results: Thirty RCTs of STS and TM were identified (25 peer-reviewed publications (n=8,323) and five abstracts (n=1,482)). Of the 25 peer-reviewed studies, 11 evaluated TM (2,710 participants), 16 evaluated STS (5,613 participants) and two tested both interventions. TM reduced all-cause mortality (risk ratio (RR 0•66 [95% CI 0•54-0•81], p<0•0001) and STS showed similar trends (RR 0•88 [95% CI 0•76-1•01], p=0•08). Both TM (RR 0•79 [95% CI 0•67-0•94], p=0•008) and STS (RR 0•77 [95% CI 0•68-0•87], p<0•0001) reduced CHF-related hospitalisations. Both interventions improved quality of life, reduced costs, and were acceptable to patients. Improvements in prescribing, patient-knowledge and self-care, and functional class were observed.--Conclusion: TM and STS both appear effective interventions to improve outcomes in patients with CHF.

Older adults’ safety perceptions of driving situations: Towards a new driving self-regulation scale

The term ‘driving self-restriction’ is used in the road safety literature to describe the behaviour of some older drivers. It includes the notion that older drivers will avoid driving in specific, usually self-identified situations, such as those in which safety is compromised. We sought to identify the situations that older drivers report avoiding; and, to determine the adequacy of a key measure of such behaviour. A sample of 75 drivers aged 65 years and older completed Baldock et al.’s modification of the Driving Habits Questionnaire avoidance items (Baldock et al., 2006), the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire, and open-ended items that elicited written descriptions of the most and least safe driving situation. Consistent with previous results, we found a relatively low level of driving self-restriction and infrequent episodes of aggressive violations. However, when combined with the situation descriptions, these data suggest that Driving Habits Questionnaire did not cover all of the situations that older drivers might choose avoid. We suggest that a new avoidance scale is needed and we present a new item pool that may be used for this purpose.

European advanced driver training programs : reasons for optimism

Post license advanced driver training programs in the US and early programs in Europe have often failed to accomplish their stated objectives because, it is suspected, that drivers gain self perceived driving skills that exceed their true skills—leading to increased post training crashes. The consensus from the evaluation of countless advanced driver training programs is that these programs are a detriment to safety, especially for novice, young, male drivers. Some European countries including Sweden, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Norway, have continued to refine these programs, with an entirely new training philosophy emerging around 1990. These ‘post-renewal’ programs have shown considerable promise, despite various data quality and availability concerns. These programs share in common a focus on teaching drivers about self assessment and anticipation of risk, as opposed to teaching drivers how to master driving at the limits of tire adhesion. The programs focus on factors such as self actualization and driving discipline, rather than low level mastery of skills. Drivers are meant to depart these renewed programs with a more realistic assessment of their driving abilities. These renewed programs require considerable specialized and costly infrastructure including dedicated driver training facilities with driving modules engineered specifically for advanced driver training and highly structured curricula. They are conspicuously missing from both the US road safety toolbox and academic literature. Given the considerable road safety concerns associated with US novice male drivers in particular, these programs warrant further attention. This paper reviews the predominant features and empirical evidence surrounding post licensing advanced driver training programs focused on novice drivers. A clear articulation of differences between the renewed and current US advanced driver training programs is provided. While the individual quantitative evaluations range from marginally to significantly effective in reducing novice driver crash risk, they have been criticized for evaluation deficiencies ranging from small sample sizes to confounding variables to lack of exposure metrics. Collectively, however, the programs sited in the paper suggest at least a marginally positive effect that needs to be validated with further studies. If additional well controlled studies can validate these programs, a pilot program in the US should be considered.

A distributed protocol for object tracking in wireless multimedia sensor networks

We consider the problem of object tracking in a wireless multimedia sensor network (we mainly focus on the camera component in this work). The vast majority of current object tracking techniques, either centralised or distributed, assume unlimited energy, meaning these techniques don't translate well when applied within the constraints of low-power distributed systems. In this paper we develop and analyse a highly-scalable, distributed strategy to object tracking in wireless camera networks with limited resources. In the proposed system, cameras transmit descriptions of objects to a subset of neighbours, determined using a predictive forwarding strategy. The received descriptions are then matched at the next camera on the objects path using a probability maximisation process with locally generated descriptions. We show, via simulation, that our predictive forwarding and probabilistic matching strategy can significantly reduce the number of object-misses, ID-switches and ID-losses; it can also reduce the number of required transmissions over a simple broadcast scenario by up to 67%. We show that our system performs well under realistic assumptions about matching objects appearance using colour.