In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Four mammal fossil calibrations: Balancing competing palaeontological and molecular considerations

With the introduction of relaxed-clock molecular dating methods, the role of fossil calibration has expanded from providing a timescale, to also informing the models for molecular rate variation across the phylogeny. Here I suggest fossil calibration bounds for four mammal clades, Monotremata (platypus and echidnas), Macropodoidea (kangaroos and potoroos), Caviomorpha-Phiomorpha (South American and African hystricognath rodents), and Chiroptera (bats). In each case I consider sources of uncertainty in the fossil record and provide a molecular dating analysis to examine how the suggested calibration priors are further informed by other mammal fossil calibrations and molecular data.

Large variations in the Holocene marine radiocarbon reservoir effect reflect ocean circulation and climatic changes

Accurate radiocarbon dating of marine samples requires knowledge of the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect. This effect for a particular site/region is generally assumed constant through time when calibrating marine 14C ages. However, recent studies have shown large temporal variations of several hundred to a couple of thousand years in this effect for a number of regions during the late Quaternary and Holocene. Here we report marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔRΔR) for Heron Reef and Moreton Bay in southwestern (SW) Pacific for the last 8 ka derived from 14C analysis of 230Th-dated corals. Most of our ΔRΔR for the last ∼5.4 ka agree well with their modern value, but large ΔRΔR variability of ∼410 yr (from trough to peak) with possible decadal/centennial fluctuations is evident for the period ∼5.4–8 ka. The latter time interval also has significant variations with similar features in previously published ΔRΔR values for other sites in the Pacific, including southern Peru–northern Chile in southeastern (SE) Pacific, the South China Sea, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, with the largest magnitude of ∼920 yr from SE Pacific. The mechanisms for these large ΔRΔR variations across the Pacific during the mid-Holocene are complex processes involving (1) changes in the quantity and 14C content of upwelled waters in tropical east Pacific (TEP) (frequency and intensity of ocean upwelling in the TEP, and contribution of Subantarctic Mode Water to the upwelled waters, which is influenced by the intensity and position of southern westerly winds), and (2) variations in ocean circulation associated with climate change (La Niña/El Niño conditions, intensity of easterly trade winds, positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Pacific Convergence Zone), which control the spreading of the older upwelled surface waters in the TEP to the western sites. Our results imply the need for employing temporal changes in ΔRΔR values, instead of constant (modern) values, for age calibration of Holocene marine samples not only for the SW Pacific sites but also for other tropical and subtropical sites in the Pacific.

Towards the development of a low cost airborne sensing system to monitor dust particles after blasting at open-pit mine sites

Blasting is an integral part of large-scale open cut mining that often occurs in close proximity to population centers and often results in the emission of particulate material and gases potentially hazardous to health. Current air quality monitoring methods rely on limited numbers of fixed sampling locations to validate a complex fluid environment and collect sufficient data to confirm model effectiveness. This paper describes the development of a methodology to address the need of a more precise approach that is capable of characterizing blasting plumes in near-real time. The integration of the system required the modification and integration of an opto-electrical dust sensor, SHARP GP2Y10, into a small fixed-wing and multi-rotor copter, resulting in the collection of data streamed during flight. The paper also describes the calibration of the optical sensor with an industry grade dust-monitoring device, Dusttrak 8520, demonstrating a high correlation between them, with correlation coefficients (R2) greater than 0.9. The laboratory and field tests demonstrate the feasibility of coupling the sensor with the UAVs. However, further work must be done in the areas of sensor selection and calibration as well as flight planning.

Radon-222 activity flux measurement using activated charcoal canisters: Revisiting the methodology

The measurement of radon ((222)Rn) activity flux using activated charcoal canisters was examined to investigate the distribution of the adsorbed (222)Rn in the charcoal bed and the relationship between (222)Rn activity flux and exposure time. The activity flux of (222)Rn from five sources of varying strengths was measured for exposure times of one, two, three, five, seven, 10, and 14 days. The distribution of the adsorbed (222)Rn in the charcoal bed was obtained by dividing the bed into six layers and counting each layer separately after the exposure. (222)Rn activity decreased in the layers that were away from the exposed surface. Nevertheless, the results demonstrated that only a small correction might be required in the actual application of charcoal canisters for activity flux measurement, where calibration standards were often prepared by the uniform mixing of radium ((226)Ra) in the matrix. This was because the diffusion of (222)Rn in the charcoal bed and the detection efficiency as a function of the charcoal depth tended to counterbalance each other. The influence of exposure time on the measured (222)Rn activity flux was observed in two situations of the canister exposure layout: (a) canister sealed to an open bed of the material and (b) canister sealed over a jar containing the material. The measured (222)Rn activity flux decreased as the exposure time increased. The change in the former situation was significant with an exponential decrease as the exposure time increased. In the latter case, lesser reduction was noticed in the observed activity flux with respect to exposure time. This reduction might have been related to certain factors, such as absorption site saturation or the back diffusion of (222)Rn gas occurring at the canister-soil interface.

Combined NIR/MIR analysis: A novel method for the classification of complex substances such as Illicium verum Hook. F. and its adulterants

A novel combined near- and mid-infrared (NIR and MIR) spectroscopic method has been researched and developed for the analysis of complex substances such as the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), Illicium verum Hook. F. (IVHF), and its noxious adulterant, Iuicium lanceolatum A.C. Smith (ILACS). Three types of spectral matrix were submitted for classification with the use of the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method. The data were pretreated with either the successive projections algorithm (SPA) or the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method. The SPA method performed somewhat better, principally because it required less spectral features for its pretreatment model. Thus, NIR or MIR matrix as well as the combined NIR/MIR one, were pretreated by the SPA method, and then analysed by LDA. This approach enabled the prediction and classification of the IVHF, ILACS and mixed samples. The MIR spectral data produced somewhat better classification rates than the NIR data. However, the best results were obtained from the combined NIR/MIR data matrix with 95–100% correct classifications for calibration, validation and prediction. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the three types of spectral data supported the results obtained with the LDA classification method.

Simultaneous kinetic spectrometric determination of three flavonoid antioxidants in fruit with the aid of chemometrics

A simple, inexpensive and sensitive kinetic spectrophotometric method was developed for the simultaneous determination of three anti-carcinogenic flavonoids: catechin, quercetin and naringenin, in fruit samples. A yellow chelate product was produced in the presence neocuproine and Cu(I) – a reduction product of the reaction between the flavonoids with Cu(II), and this enabled the quantitative measurements with UV–vis spectrophotometry. The overlapping spectra obtained, were resolved with chemometrics calibration models, and the best performing method was the fast independent component analysis (fast-ICA/PCR (Principal component regression)); the limits of detection were 0.075, 0.057 and 0.063 mg L−1 for catechin, quercetin and naringenin, respectively. The novel method was found to outperform significantly the common HPLC procedure.

The dependence of computed tomography number to relative electron density conversion on phantom geometry and its impact on planned dose

A computed tomography number to relative electron density (CT-RED) calibration is performed when commissioning a radiotherapy CT scanner by imaging a calibration phantom with inserts of specified RED and recording the CT number displayed. In this work, CT-RED calibrations were generated using several commercially available phantoms to observe the effect of phantom geometry on conversion to electron density and, ultimately, the dose calculation in a treatment planning system. Using an anthropomorphic phantom as a gold standard, the CT number of a material was found to depend strongly on the amount and type of scattering material surrounding the volume of interest, with the largest variation observed for the highest density material tested, cortical bone. Cortical bone gave a maximum CT number difference of 1,110 when a cylindrical insert of diameter 28 mm scanned free in air was compared to that in the form of a 30 × 30 cm2 slab. The effect of using each CT-RED calibration on planned dose to a patient was quantified using a commercially available treatment planning system. When all calibrations were compared to the anthropomorphic calibration, the largest percentage dose difference was 4.2 % which occurred when the CT-RED calibration curve was acquired with heterogeneity inserts removed from the phantom and scanned free in air. The maximum dose difference observed between two dedicated CT-RED phantoms was ±2.1 %. A phantom that is to be used for CT-RED calibrations must have sufficient water equivalent scattering material surrounding the heterogeneous objects that are to be used for calibration.

Comparison of the Cosmed K4 b2 and the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart in measuring resting energy expenditure in adults

Background and Aims: The objective of the study was to compare data obtained from the Cosmed K4 b2 and the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart for the purpose of determining the validity of the Cosmed K4 b2 in measuring resting energy expenditure. Methods: Nine adult subjects (four male, five female) were measured. Resting energy expenditure was measured in consecutive sessions using the Cosmed K4 b2, the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart separately and the Cosmed K4 b2 and Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart simultaneously, performed in random order. Resting energy expenditure (REE) data from both devices were then compared with values obtained from predictive equations. Results: Bland and Altman analysis revealed a mean bias for the four variables, REE, respiratory quotient (RQ), VCO2, VO2 between data obtained from Cosmed K4 b2 and Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart of 268 ± 702 kcal/day, -0.0±0.2, 26.4±118.2 and 51.6±126.5 ml/min, respectively. Corresponding limits of agreement for the same four variables were all large. Also, Bland and Altman analysis revealed a larger mean bias between predicted REE and measured REE using Cosmed K4 b2 data (-194±603 kcal/day) than using Deltatrac™ metabolic cart data (73±197 kcal/day). Conclusions: Variability between the two devices was very high and a degree of measurement error was detected. Data from the Cosmed K4 b2 provided variable results on comparison with predicted values, thus, would seem an invalid device for measuring adults. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energetics of rare earth manganese perovskites A1-xA ' xMnO3 (A = La, Nd, Y and A ' = Sr, La) systems

High temperature reaction calorimetry using molten lead berate as solvent has been used to study the thermochemistry of NdMnO3, YMnO3, La1-xSrxMnO3 (with 0 < x < 0.5), and Ln(0.5)Ca(0.5)MnO(3) (with Ln = La, Nd, Y), The enthalpies of formation of these multicomponent oxides from their binary constituents have been calculated from the measured enthalpy of drop solution, The energetic stability of the perovskite depends on the size of the A cation, The enthalpy of formation of YMnO3 (smallest A cation) is more endothermic than those of NdMnO3 and LaMnO3. The energetics of the perovskite also depends on the oxidation state of the B site's ions. In the La1-xSrxMnO3 system, the energetic stability of the structure increases with the Mn4+/Mn3+ ratio, The new values of the enthalpies of oxidations, with reliable standard entropies, were used to plot the phase stability diagram of the lanthanum-manganese-oxygen system in the temperature range 300-1100 K, The LaMnO3/MnO phase boundary evaluated in this study agrees with the one published by Atsumi et nl. calculated from thermogravimetric and conductivity measurements.

Unsteady Compressible Boundary-Layer Flow On The Stagnation Line Of An Infinite Swept Cylinder

Numerical solutions of flow and heat transfer process on the unsteady flow of a compressible viscous fluid with variable gas properties in the vicinity of the stagnation line of an infinite swept cylinder are presented. Results are given for the case where the unsteady temperature field is produced by (i) a sudden change in the wall temperature (enthalpy) as the impulsive motion is started and (ii) a sudden change in the free-stream velocity. Solutions for the simultaneous development of the thermal and momentum boundary layers are obtained by using quasilinearization technique with an implicit finite difference scheme. Attention is given to the transient phenomenon from the initial flow to the final steady-state distribution. Results are presented for the skin friction and heat transfer coefficients as well as for the velocity and enthalpy profiles. The effects of wail enthalpy parameter, sweep parameter, fluid properties and transpiration cooling on the heat transfer and skin friction are considered.

Structure of the benzene center dot center dot center dot ICI complex: A UVPES and ab initio molecular orbital study

UVPES studies and ab initio and DFT computations have been done on the benzene...ICl complex; electron spectral data and computed orbital energies show that donor orbitals are stabilized and acceptor orbitals are destabilized due to complexation. Calculations predict an oblique structure for the complex in which the interacting site is a C=C bond center in the donor and iodine atom in the acceptor, in full agreement with earlier experimental reports. BSSE-corrected binding energies closely match the enthalpy of complexation reported, and the NBO analysis clearly reveals the involvement of the pi orbital of benzene and the sigma* orbital of ICl in the complex.

On the measurement of the surface energy budget over a land surface during the summer monsoon

The measurement of surface energy balance over a land surface in an open area in Bangalore is reported. Measurements of all variables needed to calculate the surface energy balance on time scales longer than a week are made. Components of radiative fluxes are measured while sensible and latent heat fluxes are based on the bulk method using measurements made at two levels on a micrometeorological tower of 10 m height. The bulk flux formulation is verified by comparing its fluxes with direct fluxes using sonic anemometer data sampled at 10 Hz. Soil temperature is measured at 4 depths. Data have been continuously collected for over 6 months covering pre-monsoon and monsoon periods during the year 2006. The study first addresses the issue of getting the fluxes accurately. It is shown that water vapour measurements are the most crucial. A bias of 0.25% in relative humidity, which is well above the normal accuracy assumed the manufacturers but achievable in the field using a combination of laboratory calibration and field intercomparisons, results in about 20 W m(-2) change in the latent heat flux on the seasonal time scale. When seen on the seasonal time scale, the net longwave radiation is the largest energy loss term at the experimental site. The seasonal variation in the energy sink term is small compared to that in the energy source term.

Thermodynamics of ligand (substrate end product) binding to endoxylanase from Chainia sp. (NCL-82-5-1): isothermal calorimetry and fluorescence titration studies

The binding of xylo-oligosaccharides to Chainia endoxylanase resulted in a decrease in fluorescence intensity of the enzyme with the formation of 1:1 complex. Equilibrium and thermodynamic parameters of ligand binding were determined by fluorescence titrations and titration calorimetry. The affinity of xylanase for the oligosaccharides increases in the order X-2 < X-3 < X-4 less than or equal to X-5. Contributions from the enthalpy towards the free energy change decreased with increasing chain length from X-2 to X-4, whereas an increase in entropy was observed, the change in enthalpy and entropy of binding being compensatory. The entropically driven binding process suggested that hydrophobic interactions as well as hydrogen bonds play a predominant role in ligand binding.

Effect of antimony addition on the thermal and electrical-switching behavior of bulk Se-Te glasses

The thermal properties and electrical-switching behavior of semiconducting chalcogenide SbxSe55-xTe45 (2 <= x <= 9) glasses have been investigated by alternating differential scanning calorimetry and electrical-switching experiments, respectively. The addition of Sb is found to enhance the glass forming tendency and stability as revealed by the decrease in non-reversing enthalpy Delta H-nr. and an increase in the glass-transition width Delta T-g. Further, the glass-transition temperature of SbxSe55-xTe45 glasses, which is a measure of network connectivity, exhibits a subtle increase, suggesting a meager network growth with the addition of Sb. The crystallization temperature is also observed to increase with Sb content. The SbxSe55-xTe45 glasses (2 <= x <= 9) are found to exhibit memory type of electrical switching, which can be attributed to the polymeric nature of network and high devitrifying ability. The metallicity factor has been found to dominate over the network connectivity and rigidity in the compositional dependence of switching voltage. which shows a profound decrease with the addition of Sb.