Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.

Lepton Flavor Violation in the Standard Model with general Dimension-Six Operators

We study lepton flavor observables in the Standard Model (SM) extended with all dimension-6 operators which are invariant under the SM gauge group. We calculate the complete one-loop predictions to the radiative lepton decays μ → eγ, τ → μγ and τ → eγ as well as to the closely related anomalous magnetic moments and electric dipole moments of charged leptons, taking into account all dimension-6 operators which can generate lepton flavor violation. Also the 3-body flavor violating charged lepton decays τ ± → μ ± μ + μ −, τ ± → e ± e + e −, τ ± → e ± μ + μ −, τ ± → μ ± e + e −, τ ± → e ∓ μ ± μ ±, τ ± → μ ∓ e ± e ± and μ ± → e ± e + e − and the Z 0 decays Z 0 → ℓ+iℓ−j are considered, taking into account all tree-level contributions.

Effect of enamel matrix derivative on periodontal wound healing and regeneration in an osteoporotic model.

BACKGROUND Despite the worldwide increased prevalence of osteoporosis, no data are available evaluating the effect of an enamel matrix derivative (EMD) on the healing of periodontal defects in patients with osteoporosis. This study aims to evaluate whether the regenerative potential of EMD may be suitable for osteoporosis-related periodontal defects. METHODS Forty female Wistar rats (mean body weight: 200 g) were used for this study. An osteoporosis animal model was carried out by bilateral ovariectomy (OVX) in 20 animals. Ten weeks after OVX, bilateral fenestration defects were created at the buccal aspect of the first mandibular molar. Animals were randomly assigned to four groups of 10 animals per group: 1) control animals with unfilled periodontal defects; 2) control animals with EMD-treated defects; 3) OVX animals with unfilled defects; and 4) OVX animals with EMD-treated defects. The animals were euthanized 28 days later, and the percentage of defect fill and thickness of newly formed bone and cementum were assessed by histomorphometry and microcomputed tomography (micro-CT) analysis. The number of osteoclasts was determined by tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), and angiogenesis was assessed by analyzing formation of blood vessels. RESULTS OVX animals demonstrated significantly reduced bone volume in unfilled defects compared with control defects (18.9% for OVX animals versus 27.2% for control animals) as assessed by micro-CT. The addition of EMD in both OVX and control animals resulted in significantly higher bone density (52.4% and 69.2%, respectively) and bone width (134 versus 165μm) compared with untreated defects; however, the healing in OVX animals treated with EMD was significantly lower than that in control animals treated with EMD. Animals treated with EMD also demonstrated significantly higher cementum formation in both control and OVX animals. The number of TRAP-positive osteoclasts did not vary between untreated and EMD-treated animals; however, a significant increase was observed in all OVX animals. The number of blood vessels and percentage of new vessel formation was significantly higher in EMD-treated samples. CONCLUSIONS The results from the present study suggest that: 1) an osteoporotic phenotype may decrease periodontal regeneration; and 2) EMD may support greater periodontal regeneration in patients suffering from the disease. Additional clinical studies are necessary to fully elucidate the possible beneficial effect of EMD for periodontal regeneration in patients suffering from osteoporosis.

The diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone from the MACC reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, WACCM and Earth observations: characteristics and intercomparison

In this study we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone derived from free-running simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and from reanalysis data of the atmospheric service MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) which both use a similar stratospheric chemistry module. We find good agreement between WACCM and the MACC reanalysis for the diurnal ozone variation in the high-latitude summer stratosphere based on photochemistry. In addition, we consult the ozone data product of the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ERA-Interim reanalysis ozone system with its long-term ozone parametrization can not capture these diurnal variations in the upper stratosphere that are due to photochemistry. The good dynamics representations, however, reflects well dynamically induced ozone variations in the lower stratosphere. For the high-latitude winter stratosphere we describe a novel feature of diurnal variation in ozone where changes of up to 46.6% (3.3 ppmv) occur in monthly mean data. For this effect good agreement between the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the MACC reanalysis suggest quite similar diurnal advection processes of ozone. The free-running WACCM model seriously underestimates the role of diurnal advection processes at the polar vortex at the two tested resolutions. The intercomparison of the MACC reanalysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis demonstrates how global reanalyses can benefit from a chemical representation held by a chemical transport model. The MACC reanalysis provides an unprecedented description of the dynamics and photochemistry of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone which is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and research on atmospheric tides. We confirm the diurnal variation in ozone at 5 hPa by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The latter give valuable insight even to diurnal variation of ozone in the polar winter stratosphere.

Influence of the Central American Seaway and Drake Passage on ocean circulation and neodymium isotopes: A model study

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simulations with various intermediate depths are performed for both seaways, providing insight into ϵNd and circulation responses to progressive throughflow evolutions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these responses to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the neodymium boundary source is examined. Modeled ϵNd changes are compared to sediment core and ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crust data. The model results indicate that the North Atlantic ϵNd response to the CAS shoaling is highly dependent on the AMOC state, i.e., on the AMOC strength before the shoaling to shallow depths (preclosure). Three scenarios based on different AMOC forcings are discussed, of which the model-data agreement favors a shallow preclosure (Miocene) AMOC (∼6 Sv). The DP opening causes a rather complex circulation response, resulting in an initial South Atlantic ϵNd decrease preceding a larger increase. This feature may be specific to our model setup, which induces a vigorous CAS throughflow that is strongly anticorrelated to the DP throughflow. In freshwater experiments following the DP deepening, ODP Site 1090 is mainly influenced by AMOC and DP throughflow changes, while ODP Site 689 is more strongly influenced by Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and CAS throughflow changes. The boundary source uncertainty is largest for shallow seaways and at shallow sites.

Modelling Nd-isotopes with a coarse resolution ocean circulation model: Sensitivities to model parameters and source/sink distributions

The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition (Nd) of seawater is a quasi-conservative tracer of water mass mixing and is assumed to hold great potential for paleoceanographic studies. Here we present a comprehensive approach for the simulation of the two neodymium isotopes 143Nd, and 144Nd using the Bern3D model, a low resolution ocean model. The high computational efficiency of the Bern3D model in conjunction with our comprehensive approach allows us to systematically and extensively explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and Nd to the parametrisation of sources and sinks. Previous studies have been restricted in doing so either by the chosen approach or by computational costs. Our study thus presents the most comprehensive survey of the marine Nd cycle to date. Our model simulates both Nd concentrations as well as Nd in good agreement with observations. Nd covaries with salinity, thus underlining its potential as a water mass proxy. Results confirm that the continental margins are required as a Nd source to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. We estimate this source to be slightly smaller than reported in previous studies and find that above a certain magnitude its magnitude affects Nd only to a small extent. On the other hand, the parametrisation of the reversible scavenging considerably affects the ability of the model to simulate both, Nd concentrations and Nd. Furthermore, despite their small contribution, we find dust and rivers to be important components of the Nd cycle. In additional experiments, we systematically varied the diapycnal diffusivity as well as the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux to explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and its isotopic signature to the strength and geometry of the overturning circulation. These experiments reveal that Nd concentrations and Nd are comparatively little affected by variations in diapycnal diffusivity and the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux. In contrast, an adequate representation of Nd sources and sinks is crucial to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. The good agreement of our results with observations paves the way for the evaluation of the paleoceanographic potential of Nd in further model studies.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

CODE’s new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009–2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft’s solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which substantially reduces the spurious signals in the geocenter coordinate z (by about a factor of 2–6), reduces the orbit misclosures at the day boundaries by about 10 %, slightly improves the consistency of the estimated ERPs with those of the IERS 08 C04 Earth rotation series, and substantially reduces the systematics in the SLR validation of the GNSS orbits.

Bathymetry of Lake Constance – a High-Resolution Survey in a Large, Deep Lake

Within the project “Tiefenschärfe – hochauflösende Vermes- sung Bodensee” a high-resolution seamless terrain model is created using airborne topobathymetric laserscanning and multibeam echosounder (MBES) techniques. The project visu- alizes the enormous wealth of features of underwater land- scapes of lakes. The combination of hydroacoustic (multibeam echosounder) and laser-optic (topobathymetric laserscan- ning) methods was used for the first time in a freshwater body of this size. Opportunities, limitations and restrictions of these high-resolution methods are presented.

A thermodynamic model for di-trioctahedral chlorite from experimental and natural data in the system MgO-FeO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O. Applications to P-T sections and geothermometry

We present a new thermodynamic activity-composition model for di-trioctahedral chlorite in the system FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O that is based on the Holland–Powell internally consistent thermodynamic data set. The model is formulated in terms of four linearly independent end-members, which are amesite, clinochlore, daphnite and sudoite. These account for the most important crystal-chemical substitutions in chlorite, the Fe–Mg, Tschermak and di-trioctahedral substitution. The ideal part of end-member activities is modeled with a mixing-on-site formalism, and non-ideality is described by a macroscopic symmetric (regular) formalism. The symmetric interaction parameters were calibrated using a set of 271 published chlorite analyses for which robust independent temperature estimates are available. In addition, adjustment of the standard state thermodynamic properties of sudoite was required to accurately reproduce experimental brackets involving sudoite. This new model was tested by calculating representative P–T sections for metasediments at low temperatures (<400 °C), in particular sudoite and chlorite bearing metapelites from Crete. Comparison between the calculated mineral assemblages and field data shows that the new model is able to predict the coexistence of chlorite and sudoite at low metamorphic temperatures. The predicted lower limit of the chloritoid stability field is also in better agreement with petrological observations. For practical applications to metamorphic and hydrothermal environments, two new semi-empirical chlorite geothermometers named Chl(1) and Chl(2) were calibrated based on the chlorite + quartz + water equilibrium (2 clinochlore + 3 sudoite = 4 amesite + 4 H2O + 7 quartz). The Chl(1) thermometer requires knowledge of the (Fe3+/ΣFe) ratio in chlorite and predicts correct temperatures for a range of redox conditions. The Chl(2) geothermometer which assumes that all iron in chlorite is ferrous has been applied to partially recrystallized detrital chlorite from the Zone houillère in the French Western Alps.

An improved simple rat model for global cerebral ischaemia by induced cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVES Cerebral hypoxic-ischaemic injury following cardiac arrest is a devastating disease affecting thousands of patients each year. There is a complex interaction between post-resuscitation injury after whole-body ischaemia-reperfusion and cerebral damage which cannot be explored in in vitro systems only; there is a need for animal models. In this study, we describe and evaluate the feasibility and efficiency of our simple rodent cardiac arrest model. METHODS Ten wistar rats were subjected to 9 and 10 minutes of cardiac arrest. Cardiac arrest was introduced with a mixture of the short-acting beta-blocking drug esmolol and potassium chloride. RESULTS All animals could be resuscitated within 1 minute, and survived until day 5.General health score and neurobehavioural testing indicated substantial impairment after cardiac arrest, without differences between groups. Histological examination of the hippocampus CA1 segment, the most vulnerable segment of the cerebrum, demonstrated extensive damage in the cresyl violet staining, as well as in the Fluoro-Jade B staining and in the Iba-1 staining, indicating recruitment of microglia after the hypoxic-ischaemic event. Again, there were no differences between the 9- and 10-minute cardiac arrest groups. DISCUSSION We were able to establish a simple and reproducible 9- and 10-minute rodent cardiac arrest models with a well-defined no-flow-time. Extensive damage can be found in the hippocampus CA1 segment. The lack of difference between 9- and 10-minute cardiac arrest time in the neuropsychological, the open field test and the histological evaluations is mainly due to the small sample size.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Atmospheric water parameters measured by a ground-based microwave radiometer and compared with the WRF model

The microwave radiometer TROWARA measures integrated water vapour (IWV) and integrated cloud liquid water (ILW) at Bern since 1994 with a time resolution of 7 s. In this study, we compare TROWARA measurements with a simulation of summer 2012 in Switzerland performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the WRF model agrees very well with TROWARA’s IWV variations with a mean bias of only 0.7 mm. The ILW distribution of the WRF model, although similar in shape to TROWARA’s distribution, overestimates the fraction of clear sky periods (83% compared to 60%).