Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.

Immigration and Firm Growth: Evidence from Spanish cities

This article analyses the effect of immigration flows on the growth and efficiency of manufacturing firms in Spanish cities. To date, most studies have tended to focus on the effect immigrants have on labour markets at an aggregate level. Here, however, we undertake an exhaustive analysis at the firm level and report conclusive empirical findings. Ten years ago, Spain began to register massive immigration flows, concentrated above all on its most dynamic and advanced regions. Here, therefore, rather than focusing on the impact this has had on Spain’s labour market (changes to the skill structure of the workforce, increase in labour supply, the displacement of native workers, etc.), we examine the arrival of immigrants in terms of the changes this has meant to the structure of the country’s cities and their amenities. Thus, we argue that the impact of immigration on firm performance should not only be considered in terms of the labour market, but also in terms of how a city’s amenities can affect the performance of firms. Employing a panel data methodology, we show that the increasing pressure brought to bear by immigrants has a positive effect on the evolution of labour productivity and wages and a negative effect on the job evolution of these manufacturing firms. In addition, both small and new firms are more sensitive to the pressures of such immigrant inflows, while foreign market oriented firms report higher productivity levels and a less marked impact of immigration than their counterparts. In this paper, we also present a set of instruments to correct the endogeneity bias, which confirms the effect of local immigration flows on the performance of manufacturing firms.

Safety and occlusion rates of surgical treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature from 1990 to 2011.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Surgical clipping of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) has recently been challenged by the emergence of endovascular treatment. We performed an updated systematic review and meta-analysis on the surgical treatment of UIAs, in an attempt to determine the aneurysm occlusion rates and safety of surgery in the modern era. METHODS: A detailed protocol was developed prior to conducting the review according to the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines. Electronic databases spanning January 1990-April 2011 were searched, complemented by hand searching. Heterogeneity was assessed using I(2), and publication bias with funnel plots. Surgical mortality and morbidity were analysed with weighted random effect models. RESULTS: 60 studies with 9845 patients harbouring 10 845 aneurysms were included. Mortality occurred in 157 patients (1.7%; 99% CI 0.9% to 3.0%; I(2)=82%). Unfavourable outcomes, including death, occurred in 692 patients (6.7%; 99% CI 4.9% to 9.0%; I(2)=85%). Morbidity rates were significantly greater in higher quality studies, and with large or posterior circulation aneurysms. Reported morbidity rates decreased over time. Studies were generally of poor quality; funnel plots showed heterogeneous results and publication bias, and data on aneurysm occlusion rates were scant. CONCLUSIONS: In studies published between 1990 and 2011, clipping of UIAs was associated with 1.7% mortality and 6.7% overall morbidity. The reputed durability of clipping has not been rigorously documented. Due to the quality of the included studies, the available literature cannot properly guide clinical decisions.

Productivity growth and competition in Spanish manufacturing firms: What has happened in recent years?

This paper addresses the issue of the relationship between productivity and market competition. In comparison to the economies of other European countries, the Spanish economy has been growing, while productivity growth has stagnated. Here we provide empirical evidence about the relationship between productivity and market competition from Spanish manufacturing firms at firm level between 1994 and 2004. Correcting for selection bias, our study pays special attention to the patterns of productivity growth between openness and non-openness firms. When market competition increases the effect on firms operating in domestic markets is positive but when the level of competition is high incentives to invest in innovation and productivity gains disappear. The empirical relationship between competition and productivity is an inverted U-shape, where productivity growth is highest at intermediate levels of competition. The productivity growth of firms operating in international markets is higher than that of non-openness firms, but when market competition rises they moderate their productivity growth. Our empirical results suggest that the correct competition policy in the Spanish economy should remove the barriers to competition in internal markets in order to increase the incentives for manufacturing firms to invest in innovation and productivity growth.

Discordances between phylogenetic and morphological patterns in alpine leaf beetles attest to an intricate biogeographic history of lineages in postglacial Europe.

Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods have moulded the evolutionary history of European cold-adapted organisms. The role of the different mountain massifs has, however, not been accurately investigated in the case of high-altitude insect species. Here, we focus on three closely related species of non-flying leaf beetles of the genus Oreina (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae), which are often found in sympatry within the mountain ranges of Europe. After showing that the species concept as currently applied does not match barcoding results, we show, based on more than 700 sequences from one nuclear and three mitochondrial genes, the role of biogeography in shaping the phylogenetic hypothesis. Dating the phylogeny using an insect molecular clock, we show that the earliest lineages diverged more than 1 Mya and that the main shift in diversification rate occurred between 0.36 and 0.18 Mya. By using a probabilistic approach on the parsimony-based dispersal/vicariance framework (MP-DIVA) as well as a direct likelihood method of state change optimization, we show that the Alps acted as a cross-roads with multiple events of dispersal to and reinvasion from neighbouring mountains. However, the relative importance of vicariance vs. dispersal events on the process of rapid diversification remains difficult to evaluate because of a bias towards overestimation of vicariance in the DIVA algorithm. Parallels are drawn with recent studies of cold-adapted species, although our study reveals novel patterns in diversity and genetic links between European mountains, and highlights the importance of neglected regions, such as the Jura and the Balkanic range.

Multiple paternity and its consequences in the white campion " Silene latifolia "

Summary Several studies have demonstrated that the number of pollen donors siring seeds of individual fruits is frequently greater than one and, consequently, that plants have multiple mates. Multiple paternity can have important consequences at the population level. It influences the genetic variability of a population, the reproductive success of males and the fitness of females and future generations. It also influences male-male interactions for fertilization and it is fundamental in providing opportunity of female choice. I investigated the occurrence and the importance of multiple paternity within fruits in natural populations of the dioecious Silene latifolia using microsatellite DNA markers, especially developed for this study. I found that multiple paternity occurs in all populations investigated in the European range of the species, varying from one to nine sires per fruit with a mean of three, suggesting that multiple paternity is highly prevalent in natural populations. In the presence of multiple paternity I investigated if there was a female genotype influence on siring success of the males. I used the same pollen mixture from two males and applied it to three replicate females of different relatedness (two full sisters and one unrelated). I found female genotype influence in one of the two populations investigated, which might reflect different population history. Since these results suggested some degree of female choice, we investigated whether the occurrence of multiple paternity and post-pollination selection could provide opportunity for inbreeding avoidance. First, I measured inbreeding depression at different life-cycle stages for offspring obtained by single-donor crosses with brothers or unrelated males replicated on distinct flowers on the same female plant. To address inbreeding avoidance, I determined paternity in crosses using mixed pollen loads of the two males. I found significant inbreeding depression in the studied population, even under benign experimental conditions, and although the unrelated male did not sire significantly more offspring, there was an effect of genetic dissimilarity on paternity. This suggests that paternity is affected by relatedness among mates, but maybe additionally affected by other factors such as pollen competitive ability or male-female interactions. Using inbred and outbred crosses, I further investigated sex ratio bias inheritance in this species, and found that sex ratio bias of the parental generation was significantly correlated to pollen germination success of the F2 generation, which suggests that sex ratio bias in this species results from the specific X/Y combination and not only on Y performance. An effect of X and Y is consistent with sex chromosome meiotic drive. In conclusion, I found multiple paternity to be widespread in the study species and that females of similar genotype produce similar paternity shares. I found that inbreeding depression is substantial, therefore receiving pollen from several donors might lead to fewer inbred offspring, I also found an effect of genetic dissimilarity on paternity shares, which indicates that there is some ability to discriminate against related pollen, although this seems not to be the only determinant of paternity outcome. Finally I found sex ratio bias to be dependent on both X and Y chromosomes as predicted by sex chromosome meiotic drive. Résumé Plusieurs études ont démontré qu'il n'était pas rare que les graines contenues dans un même fruit soient issues de la fécondation par plusieurs pollens provenant de mâles différents, ce qui sous-entend que les plantes peuvent avoir plusieurs partenaires sexuels. La paternité multiple peut avoir d'importantes conséquences au niveau populationnel dans la mesure où elle peut influencer le degré de variabilité génétique de la population, le succès reproducteur des mâles, la fitness des femelles et des futures générations. La paternité multiple peut également avoir un impact sur les interactions mâle-mâle lors de la fertilisation et peut être considérée comme fondamentale vis-à-vis de la femelle, qui y trouve alors une opportunité de choisir son ou ses partenaires. Dans le cadre de ce travail de thèse j'ai cherché à déterminer si la paternité multiple était un phénomène observable et important dans les populations naturelles de l'espèce dioïque, Silene latifolia. Pour ce faire, j'ai utilisé des marqueurs microsatellites, spécialement développés pour cette étude. J'ai observé des phénomènes de paternité multiple dans toutes les populations de l'étude, réparties dans l'aire de distribution européenne de l'espèce. Le nombre de pères par fruit varie de un à neuf, avec un nombre moyen de trois, ce qui signifie que la paternité multiple est très répandue dans les populations naturelles. En raison de ces résultats, je me suis demandée si le génotype de la femelle influence le succès de paternité des mâles. J'ai alors réalisé des pollinisations manuelles sur la base d'un mélange de pollens issus de deux mâles, que j'ai appliqué sur trois femelles (réplicats) présentant différents degrés d'apparentement (deux soeurs. et une femelle étrangère). Il ressort de cette expérience que le génotype de la femelle peut influencer la paternité dans l'une des deux populations étudiées, ce qui pourrait refléter des différences en terme d'histoire des populations. Dans la mesure où ces résultats suggèrent un certain degré de choix chez la femelle, j'ai cherché à savoir si la paternité multiple et la sélection post-pollinisation pouvaient être des moyens d'éviter les croisements consanguins. Dans un premier temps, j'ai évalué la dépression de consanguinité à différentes étapes du cycle de vie chez des descendants issus de croisements à un seul donneur, celui-ci étant alternativement un frère ou un étranger, répliqués sur plusieurs fleurs d'une même plante femelle. Afin d'estimer l'évitement de croisements consanguins, j'ai effectué des croisements dont le pollen était un mélange des deux mâles (frère et étranger), puis j'ai déterminé la paternité dans les fruits obtenus. J'ai pu mettre en évidence un effet de dépression de consanguinité- significatif dans les populations étudiées, même dans des conditions expérimentales moins rudes qu'à l'extérieur. Bien que le mâle étranger n'ait pas engendré un nombre significativement plus important de graines, il y avait un effet de dissimilarité génétique sur la paternité. Ceci suggère que la paternité est affectée par le degré d'apparentement entre les partenaires, mais qu'elle peut aussi être affectée par d'autres facteurs tels que la compétitivité du pollen ou encore par les interactions mâles-femelles. L'utilisation de croisements consanguins et hybrides m'a également permis d'étudier l'héritabilité du biais de sex ratio chez cette espèce. Il s'est avéré que le biais de sex ratio de la génération parentale était significativement corrélé au succès de germination du pollen de la génération F2, ce qui signifie que, chez cette espèce, le biais de sex ratio résulte d'une combinaison spécifique de X/Y et non uniquement de la performance de Y. Un effet de X et Y est compatible avec l'hypothèse de distorsion de ségrégation méiotique des chromosomes sexuels. En conclusion, il ressort de mes résultats que la paternité multiple est un phénomène largement répandu chez S. latifolia et la paternité accomplie par un mâle est plus similaire entre soeurs qu'avec une femelle étrangère J'ai également mis en évidence que la dépression de consanguinité a un impact considérable; aussi, recevoir du pollen de plusieurs donneurs différents pourrait permettre à la femelle de produire moins de descendants consanguins. J'ai aussi trouvé un effet de la dissimilarité génétique sur le partage de paternité, ce qui indique que la discrimination contre le pollen d'apparentés est possible, bien que cela ne semble pas être le seul facteur déterminant dans le résultat de la paternité. Enfin, j'ai trouvé que le biais de sex ratio est dépendant des deux chromosomes X et Y, conformément à la théorie de distorsion de ségrégation méiotique des chromosomes sexuels.

Role of surgery in the management of brain arteriovenous malformations: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Management of brain arteriovenous malformation (bAVM) is controversial. We have analyzed the largest surgical bAVM cohort for outcome. METHODS: Both operated and nonoperated cases were included for analysis. A total of 779 patients with bAVMs were consecutively enrolled between 1989 and 2014. Initial management recommendations were recorded before commencement of treatment. Surgical outcome was prospectively recorded and outcomes assigned at the last follow-up visit using modified Rankin Scale. First, a sensitivity analyses was performed to select a subset of the entire cohort for which the results of surgery could be generalized. Second, from this subset, variables were analyzed for risk of deficit or near miss (intraoperative hemorrhage requiring blood transfusion of ≥2.5 L, hemorrhage in resection bed requiring reoperation, and hemorrhage associated with either digital subtraction angiography or embolization). RESULTS: A total of 7.7% of patients with Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVM had an adverse outcome from surgery leading to a modified Rankin Scale >1. Sensitivity analyses that demonstrated outcome results were not subject to selection bias for Spetzler-Ponce classes A and B bAVMs. Risk factors for adverse outcomes from surgery for these bAVMs include size, presence of deep venous drainage, and eloquent location. Preoperative embolization did not affect the risk of perioperative hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the ruptured and unruptured low and middle-grade bAVMs (Spetzler-Ponce A and B) can be surgically treated with a low risk of permanent morbidity and a high likelihood of preventing future hemorrhage. Our results do not apply to Spetzler-Ponce C bAVMs.

Acetylcholinesterase inhibitor treatment for myasthenia gravis.

BACKGROUND: In myasthenia gravis, antibody-mediated blockade of acetylcholine receptors at the neuromuscular junction abolishes the naturally occurring 'safety factor' of synaptic transmission. Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors provide temporary symptomatic treatment of muscle weakness but there is controversy about their long-term efficacy, dosage and side effects. This is the second update of a review published in The Cochrane Library Issue 2, 2011. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in all forms of myasthenia gravis. SEARCH METHODS: On 8 July 2014 we searched the Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised controlled trials regarding usage of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in myasthenia gravis. Two authors scanned the articles for any study eligible for inclusion. We also contacted the authors and known experts in the field to identify additional published or unpublished data and searched clinical trials registries for ongoing trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: The types of studies were randomised or quasi-randomised trials. Participants were myasthenia gravis patients diagnosed by an internationally accepted definition. The intervention was treatment with any form of acetylcholinesterase inhibitor. Types of outcome measures Primary outcome measureImprovement in the presenting symptoms within one to 14 days of the start of treatment. Secondary outcome measures(1) Improvement in the presenting symptoms more than 14 days after the start of treatment.(2) Change in impairment measured by a recognised and preferably validated scale, such as the quantitative myasthenia gravis score, within one to 14 days and more than 14 days after the start of treatment.(3) Myasthenia Gravis Association of America post-intervention status more than 14 days after start of treatment.(4) Adverse events including muscarinic side effects. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One author (MMM) extracted the data, which were checked by a second author. We contacted study authors for extra information and collected data on adverse effects from the trials. MAIN RESULTS: We did not find any large randomised or quasi-randomised trials of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in generalised myasthenia gravis either for the first version of this review or this update. One cross-over randomised trial using intranasal neostigmine in a total of 10 participants was only available as an abstract. It included three participants with ocular myasthenia gravis and seven with generalised myasthenia gravis. Symptoms of myasthenia gravis (measured as improvement in at least one muscle function) improved in nine of the 10 participants after the two-week neostigmine treatment phase. No participant improved after the placebo phase. Lack of detail in the report meant that the risk of bias was unclear. Adverse events were minor. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Except for one small and inconclusive trial of intranasal neostigmine, no other randomised controlled trials have been conducted on the use of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in myasthenia gravis. The response to acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in observational studies is so clear that a randomised controlled trial depriving participants in a placebo arm of treatment would be difficult to justify.

Colonialism, European Descendants and Democracy

This paper advances that the share of European descendants in the population is a major determinant of democracy in former colonial countries. We test this hypothesis using cross-section and panel regressions with 60 developing and developed countries that were once colonies. We find that the share of European descendants can explain more than half of the difference in measures of democracy between the least and the most democratic countries in our sample. We control for other potential determinants of democracy and test for endogeneity bias using instrumental variables.

Growth and Survival Determinants of Chinese Private Firms: Fieldwork evidence and econometric estimates

This paper reports on one of the first empirical attempts to investigate small firm growth and survival, and their determinants, in the Peoples’ Republic of China. The work is based on field work evidence gathered from a sample of 83 Chinese private firms (mainly SMEs) collected initially by face-to-face interviews, and subsequently by follow-up telephone interviews a year later. We extend the models of Gibrat (1931) and Jovanovic (1982), which traditionally focus on size and age alone (e.g. Brock and Evans, 1986), to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model with two types of additional explanatory variables: firm-specific (e.g. business planning); and environmental (e.g. choice of location). We estimate two econometric models: a ‘basic’ age-size-growth model; and a ‘comprehensive’ growth model, using Heckman’s two-step regression procedure. Estimation is by log-linear regression on cross-section data, with corrections for sample selection bias and heteroskedasticity. Our results refute a pure Gibrat model (but support a more general variant) and support the learning model, as regards the consequences of size and age for growth; and our extension to a comprehensive model highlights the importance of location choice and customer orientation for the growth of Chinese private firms. In the latter model, growth is explained by variables like planning, R&D orientation, market competition, elasticity of demand etc. as well as by control variables. Our work on small firm growth achieves two things. First, it upholds the validity of ‘basic’ size-age-growth models, and successfully applies them to the Chinese economy. Second, it extends the compass of such models to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model incorporating firm-specific and environmental variables.

Scotland: A New Fiscal Settlement

Executive Summary Many commentators have criticised the strategy currently used to finance the Scottish Parliament – both the block grant system, and the small degree of fiscal autonomy devised in the Calman report and the UK government’s 2009 White Paper. Nevertheless, fiscal autonomy has now been conceded in principle. This paper sets out to identify formally what level of autonomy would be best for the Scottish economy and the institutional changes needed to support that arrangement. Our conclusions are in line with the Steel Commission: that significantly more fiscal powers need to be transferred to Scotland. But what we can then do, which the Steel Commission could not, is to give a detailed blueprint for how this proposal might be implemented in practice. We face two problems. The existing block grant system can and has been criticised from such a wide variety of points of view that it effectively has no credibility left. On the other hand, the Calman proposals (and the UK government proposals that followed) are unworkable because, to function, they require information that the policy makers cannot possibly have; and because, without borrowing for current activities, they contain no mechanism to reconcile contractual spending (most of the budget) with variable revenue flows – which is to invite an eventual breakdown. But in its attempt to fix these problems, the UK White Paper introduces three further difficulties: new grounds for quarrels between the UK and Scottish governments, a long term deflation bias, and a loss of devolution.

Time-consistent fiscal policy under heterogeneity: Conflicting or common interests?

This paper studies the aggregate and distributional implications of Markov-perfect tax-spending policy in a neoclassical growth model with capitalists and workers. Focusing on the long run, our main fi ndings are: (i) it is optimal for a benevolent government, which cares equally about its citizens, to tax capital heavily and to subsidise labour; (ii) a Pareto improving means to reduce ine¢ ciently high capital taxation under discretion is for the government to place greater weight on the welfare of capitalists; (iii) capitalists and workers preferences, regarding the optimal amount of "capitalist bias", are not aligned implying a conflict of interests.

Discrimination of cortical laminae using MEG.

Typically MEG source reconstruction is used to estimate the distribution of current flow on a single anatomically derived cortical surface model. In this study we use two such models representing superficial and deep cortical laminae. We establish how well we can discriminate between these two different cortical layer models based on the same MEG data in the presence of different levels of co-registration noise, Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and cortical patch size. We demonstrate that it is possible to make a distinction between superficial and deep cortical laminae for levels of co-registration noise of less than 2mm translation and 2° rotation at SNR>11dB. We also show that an incorrect estimate of cortical patch size will tend to bias layer estimates. We then use a 3D printed head-cast (Troebinger et al., 2014) to achieve comparable levels of co-registration noise, in an auditory evoked response paradigm, and show that it is possible to discriminate between these cortical layer models in real data.

Unionism and Peer-Referencing

This study assesses the 'fair-wage-effort' hypothesis, by examining (a) the relationship between relative wage comparisons and job satisfaction and quitting intensions, and (b) the relative ranking of stated effort inducing-incentives, in a novel dataset of unionised and non-unionised European employees. By distinguishing between downward and upward-looking wage comparisons, it is shown that wage comparisons to similar workers exert an asymmetric impact on the job satisfaction of union workers, a pattern consistent with inequity-aversion and conformism to the reference point. Moreover, union workers evaluate peer observation and good industrial relations more highly than payment and other incentives. In contrast, non-union workers are found to be more status-seeking in their satisfaction responses and less dependent on their peers in their effort choices The results are robust to endogenous union membership, considerations of generic loss aversion and across different tenure profiles. They are supportive of the individual egalitarian bias of collective wage determination and self-enforcing effort norms.

The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.