A model of the pelagic ecossystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: Recent calls for a more holistic approach to fisheries management have motivated development of trophic mass-balance models of ecosystems that underlie fisheries production. We developed a model hypothesis of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) to gain insight into the relationships among the various species in the system and to explore the ecological implications of alternative methods of harvesting tunas. We represented the biomasses of and fluxes between the principal elements in the ecosystem with Ecopath, and examined the ecosystem's dynamic, time-series behavior with Ecosim. We parameterized the model for 38 species or groups of species, and described the sources, justifications, assumptions, and revisions of our estimates of the various parameters, diet relations, fisheries landings, and fisheries discards in the model. We conducted sensitivity analyses with an intermediate version of the model, for both the Ecopath mass-balance and the dynamic trajectories predicted by Ecosim. The analysis showed that changes in the basic parameters for two components at middle trophic levels, Cephalopods and Auxis spp., exert the greatest influence on the system. When the Cephalopod Q/B and Auxis spp. P/B were altered from their initial values and the model was rebalanced, the trends of the biomass trajectories predicted by Ecosim were not sensitive, but the scaling was sensitive for several components. We described the review process the model was subjected to, which included reviews by the IATTC Purse-seine Bycatch Working Group and by a working group supported by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis. We fitted the model to historical time series of catches per unit of effort and mortality rates for yellowfin and bigeye tunas in simulations that incorporated historical fishing effort and a climate driver to represent the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation-scale variation on the system. The model was designed to evaluate the possible ecological implications of fishing for tunas in various ways. We recognize that a model cannot possibly represent all the complexity of a pelagic ocean ecosystem, but we believe that the ETP model provides insight into the structure and function of the pelagic ETP. Spanish: Llamamientos recientes hacia un enfoque más holístico al ordenamiento de la pesca han motivado el desarrollo de modelos tróficos de balance de masas de los ecosistemas que sostienen la producción pesquera. Desarrollamos una hipótesis modelo del ecosistema pelágico en el Océano Pacífico oriental tropical (POT) con miras a mejorar los conocimientos de las relaciones entre las distintas especies en el sistema y explorar las implicaciones ecológicas de métodos alternativos de capturar atunes. Con Ecopath representamos las biomasas de los elementos principales en el ecosistema, y los flujos entre los mismos, y con Ecosim examinamos el comportamiento dinámico del ecosistema con el tiempo. Parametrizamos el modelo para 38 especies o grupos de especies (denominados “componentes” del modelo), y describimos las fuentes, justificaciones, supuestos, y revisiones de nuestras estimaciones de los distintos parámetros, relaciones basadas en dieta, capturas retenidas de las pesquerías, y descartes de las mismas en el modelo. Realizamos análisis de sensibilidad con una versión intermedia del modelo, para el balance de masas de Ecopath y las trayectorias dinámicas predichas por Ecosim también. El análisis demostró que cambios en los parámetros básicos para dos componentes en niveles tróficos medianos, Cefalópodos y Auxis spp., ejercieron la mayor influencia sobre el sistema. Cuando se alteraron el Q/B de los Cefalópodos y el P/B de los Auxis spp. de sus valores iniciales y se balanceó el modelo de nuevo, las tendencias de las trayectorias de la biomasa predichas por Ecosim no fueron sensibles, pero la escala fue sensible para varios componentes. Describimos el proceso de revisión al que fue sujeto el modelo, inclusive revisiones por el Grupo de Trabajo sobre Captura Incidental de la CIAT y un grupo de trabajo apoyado por el Centro Nacional para Síntesis y Análisis Ecológicos. Ajustamos el modelo a series de tiempo históricas de capturas por unidad de esfuerzo y tasas de mortalidad de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo en simulaciones que incorporaron esfuerzo de pesca histórico e impulsos climáticos para representar el efecto de variaciones a escala de El Niño-Oscilación del Sur sobre el sistema. El modelo fue diseñado para evaluar las posibles implicaciones ecológicas de la pesca atunera de varias formas. Reconocemos la imposibilidad de que el modelo represente toda la complejidad de un ecosistema oceánico pelágico, pero creemos que el modelo del POT mejora los conocimientos de la estructura y función del POT pelágico.

An enactive and dynamical systems theory account of dyadic relationships

Many social relationships are a locus of struggle and suffering, either at the individual or interactional level. In this paper we explore why this is the case and suggest a modeling approach for dyadic interactions and the well-being of the participants. To this end we bring together an enactive approach to self with dynamical systems theory. Our basic assumption is that the quality of any social interaction or relationship fundamentally depends on the nature and constitution of the individuals engaged in these interactions. From an enactive perspective the self is conceived as an embodied and socially enacted autonomous system striving to maintain an identity. This striving involves a basic two-fold goal: the ability to exist as an individual in one's own right, while also being open to and affected by others. In terms of dynamical systems theory one can thus consider the individual self as a self-other organized system represented by a phase space spanned by the dimensions of distinction and participation, where attractors can be defined. Based on two everyday examples of dyadic relationship we propose a simple model of relationship dynamics, in which struggle or well-being in the dyad is analyzed in terms of movements of dyadic states that are in tension or in harmony with individually developed attractors. Our model predicts that relationships can be sustained when the dyad develops a new joint attractor toward which dyadic states tend to move, and well-being when this attractor is in balance with the individuals' attractors. We outline how this can inspire research on psychotherapy. The psychotherapy process itself provides a setting that supports clients to become aware how they fare with regards to the two-fold norm of distinction and participation and develop, through active engagement between client (or couple) and therapist, strategies to co-negotiate their self-organization.

Prediction and confirmation of seasonal migration of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem

During the last century, the population of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem has exhibited large fluctuations in abundance and migration behavior. From approximately 1900 to 1940, the abundance of sardine reached 3.6 million metric tons and the “northern stock” migrated from offshore of California in the spring to the coastal areas near Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island in the summer. In the 1940s, the sardine stock collapsed and the few remaining sardine schools concentrated in the coastal region off southern California, year-round, for the next 50 years. The stock gradually recovered in the late 1980s and resumed its seasonal migration between regions off southern California and Canada. Recently, a model was developed which predicts the potential habitat for the northern stock of Pacific sardine and its seasonal dynamics. The habitat predictions were successfully validated using data from sardine surveys using the daily egg production method; scientific trawl surveys off the Columbia River mouth; and commercial sardine landings off Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island. Here, the predictions of the potential habitat and seasonal migration of the northern stock of sardine are validated using data from “acoustic–trawl” surveys of the entire west coast of the United States during the spring and summer of 2008. The estimates of sardine biomass and lengths from the two surveys are not significantly different between spring and summer, indicating that they are representative of the entire stock. The results also confirm that the model of potential sardine habitat can be used to optimally apply survey effort and thus minimize random and systematic sampling error in the biomass estimates. Furthermore, the acoustic–trawl survey data are useful to estimate concurrently the distributions and abundances of other pelagic fishes.

Distributions and abundances of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and other pelagic fishes in the California Current Ecosystem during spring 2006, 2008, and 2010, estimated from acoustic–trawl surveys

The abundances and distributions of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem from San Diego to southern Vancouver Island, were estimated from combined acoustic and trawl surveys conducted in the spring of 2006, 2008, and 2010. Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus), and Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) were the dominant coastal pelagic fish species, in that order. Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) were sampled only sporadically and therefore estimates for these species were unreliable. The estimates of sardine biomass compared well with those of the annual assessments and confirmed a declining trajectory of the “northern stock” since 2006. During the sampling period, the biomass of jack mackerel was stable or increasing, and that of Pacific mackerel was low and variable. The uncertainties in these estimates are mostly the result of spatial patchiness which increased from sardine to mackerels to anchovy and herring. Future surveys of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem should benefit from adaptive sampling based on modeled habitat; increased echosounder and trawl sampling, particularly for the most patchy and nearshore species; and directed-trawl sampling for improved species identification and estimations of their acoustic target stren

Spatial and seasonal relationships between Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) and their prey, at multiple scales

Knowing where pinnipeds forage is vital to managing and protecting their populations, and for assessing potential interactions with fisheries. We assessed the spatial relationship between the seasonal distribution of Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) outfitted with satellite transmitters and the seasonal distributions of potential harbor seal prey species in San Francisco Bay, California. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated between the number of harbor seal locations in an area of the San Francisco Bay and the abundance of specific prey species in the same area. The influence of scale on the analyses was assessed by varying the scale of analysis from 1 to 10 km. There was consistency in the prey species targeted by harbor seals year-round, although there were seasonal differences between the most important prey species. The highest correlations between harbor seals and their prey were found for seasonally abundant benthic species, located within about 10 km of the primary haul-out site. Probable foraging habitat for harbor seals was identified, based on areas with high abundances of prey species that were strongly correlated with harbor seal distribution. With comparable local data inputs, this approach has potential application to pinniped management in other areas, and to decisions about the location of marine reserves designed to protect these species.

Multiple stable reference points in oyster populations: biological relationships for the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in Delaware Bay

Abstract—In the first of two companion papers, a 54-yr time series for the oyster population in the New Jersey waters of Delaware Bay was analyzed to develop biological relationships necessary to evaluate maximum sustainable yield (MSY) reference points and to consider how multiple stable points affect reference point-based management. The time series encompassed two regime shifts, one circa 1970 that ushered in a 15-yr period of high abundance, and a second in 1985 that ushered in a 20-yr period of low abundance. The intervening and succeeding periods have the attributes of alternate stable states. The biological relationships between abundance, recruitment, and mortality were unusual in four ways. First, the broodstock–recruitment relationship at low abundance may have been driven more by the provision of settlement sites for larvae by the adults than by fecundity. Second, the natural mortality rate was temporally unstable and bore a nonlinear relationship to abundance. Third, combined high abundance and low mortality, though likely requiring favorable environmental conditions, seemed also to be a self-reinforcing phenomenon. As a consequence, the abundance –mortality relationship exhibited both compensatory and depensatory components. Fourth, the geographic distribution of the stock was intertwined with abundance and mortality, such that interrelationships were functions both of spatial organization and inherent populatio

Prosomal-width-to-weight relationships in American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus): examining conversion factors used to estimate landings

Horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are valued by many stakeholders, including the commercial fishing industry, biomedical companies, and environmental interest groups. We designed a study to test the accuracy of the conversion factors that were used by NOAA Fisheries and state agencies to estimate horseshoe crab landings before mandatory reporting that began in 1998. Our results indicate that the NOAA Fisheries conversion factor consistently overestimates the weight of male horseshoe crabs, particularly those from New England populations. Because of the inaccuracy of this and other conversion factors, states are now mandated to report the number (not biomass) and sex of landed horseshoe crabs. However, accurate estimates of biomass are still necessary for use in prediction models that are being developed to better manage the horseshoe crab fishery. We recommend that managers use the conversion factors presented in this study to convert current landing data from numbers to biomass of harvested horseshoe crabs for future assessments.

Reconstruction of original body size and estimation of allometric relationships for the longfin inshore squid (Loligo pealeii) and northern shortfin squid (Illex illecebrosus)

Quantification of predator-prey body size relationships is essential to understanding trophic dynamics in marine ecosystems. Prey lengths recovered from predator stomachs help determine the sizes of prey most influential in supporting predator growth and to ascertain size-specific effects of natural mortality on prey populations (Bax, 1998; Claessen et al., 2002). Estimating prey size from stomach content analyses is often hindered because of the degradation of tissue and bone by digestion. Furthermore, reconstruction of original prey size from digested remains requires species-specific reference materials and techniques. A number of diagnostic guides for freshwater (Hansel et al., 1988) and marine (Watt et al., 1997; Granadeiro and Silva, 2000) prey species exist; however they are limited to specific geographic regions (Smale et al., 1995; Gosztonyi et al., 2007). Predictive equations for reconstructing original prey size from diagnostic bones in marine fishes have been developed in several studies of piscivorous fishes of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (Scharf et al., 1998; Wood, 2005). Conversely, morphometric relationships for cephalopods in this region are scarce despite their importance to a wide range of predators, such as finfish (Bowman et al., 2000 ; Staudinger, 2006), elasmobranchs (Kohler, 1987), and marine mammals (Gannon et al., 1997; Williams, 1999).

Abundance and population density of cetaceans in the California Current ecosystem

The abundance and population density of cetaceans along the U.S. west coast were estimated from ship surveys conducted in the summer and fall of 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001, and 2005 by using multiple-covariate, line-transect analyses. Overall, approximately 556,000 cetaceans of 21 species were estimated to be in the 1,141,800-km2 study area. Delphinoids (Delphinidae and Phocoenidae), the most abundant group, numbered ~540,000 individuals. Abundance in other taxonomic groups included ~5800 baleen whales (Mysticeti), ~7000 beaked whales (Ziphiidae), and ~3200 sperm whales (Physeteridae). This study provides the longest time series of abundance estimates that includes all the cetacean species in any marine ecosystem. These estimates will be used to interpret the impacts of human-caused mortality (such as that documented in fishery bycatch and that caused by ship strikes and other means) and to evaluate the ecological role of cetaceans in the California Current ecosystem.

The relationships between fish assemblages and the amount of bottom horizontal beam exposed at California oil platforms: fish habitat preferences at man-made platforms and (by inference) at natural reefs

Between 1995 and 2002, we surveyed fish assemblages at seven oil platforms off southern and central California using the manned research submersible Delta. At each platform, there is a large horizontal beam situated at or near the sea floor. In some instances, shells and sediment have buried this beam and in other instances it is partially or completely exposed. We found that fish species responded in various ways to the amount of exposure of the beam. A few species, such as blackeye goby (Rhinogobiops nicholsii), greenstriped rockfish (Sebastes elongatus), and pink seaperch (Zalembius rosaceus) tended to avoid the beam. However, many species that typically associate with natural rocky outcrops, such as bocaccio (S. paucispinis), cowcod (S. levis), copper (S. caurinus), greenblotched (S. rosenblatti), pinkrose (S. simulator) and vermilion (S. miniatus) rockfishes, were found most often where the beam was exposed. In particular, a group of species (e.g., bocaccio, cowcod, blue (Sebastes mystinus), and vermilion rockfishes) called here the “sheltering habitat” guild, lived primarily where the beam was exposed and formed a crevice. This work demonstrates that the presence of sheltering sites is important in determining the species composition of man-made reefs and, likely, natural reefs. This research also indicates that adding structures that form sheltering sites in and around decommissioned platforms will likely lead to higher densities of many species typical of hard and complex structure.

A prior for steepness in stock-recruitment relationships, based on an evolutionary persistence principle

Priors are existing information or beliefs that are needed in Bayesian analysis. Informative priors are important in obtaining the Bayesian posterior distributions for estimated parameters in stock assessment. In the case of the steepness parameter (h), the need for an informative prior is particularly important because it determines the stock-recruitment relationships in the model. However, specifications of the priors for the h parameter are often subjective. We used a simple population model to derive h priors based on life history considerations. The model was based on the evolutionary principle that persistence of any species, given its life history (i.e., natural mortality rate) and its exposure to recruitment variability, requires a minimum recruitment compensation that enables the species to rebound consistently from low critical abundances (Nc). Using the model, we derived the prior probability distributions of the h parameter for fish species that have a range of natural mortality, recruitment variabilities, and Nt values.