Efficient probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure considering wind perturbation

The integration of stochastic wind power has accentuated a challenge for power system stability assessment. Since the power system is a time-variant system under wind generation fluctuations, pure time-domain simulations are difficult to provide real-time stability assessment. As a result, the worst-case scenario is simulated to give a very conservative assessment of system transient stability. In this study, a probabilistic contingency analysis through a stability measure method is proposed to provide a less conservative contingency analysis which covers 5-min wind fluctuations and a successive fault. This probabilistic approach would estimate the transfer limit of a critical line for a given fault with stochastic wind generation and active control devices in a multi-machine system. This approach achieves a lower computation cost and improved accuracy using a new stability measure and polynomial interpolation, and is feasible for online contingency analysis.

Relative stability of DNA as a generic criterion for promoter prediction: whole genome annotation of microbial genomes with varying nucleotide base composition

The rapid increase in genome sequence information has necessitated the annotation of their functional elements, particularly those occurring in the non-coding regions, in the genomic context. Promoter region is the key regulatory region, which enables the gene to be transcribed or repressed, but it is difficult to determine experimentally. Hence an in silico identification of promoters is crucial in order to guide experimental work and to pin point the key region that controls the transcription initiation of a gene. In this analysis, we demonstrate that while the promoter regions are in general less stable than the flanking regions, their average free energy varies depending on the GC composition of the flanking genomic sequence. We have therefore obtained a set of free energy threshold values, for genomic DNA with varying GC content and used them as generic criteria for predicting promoter regions in several microbial genomes, using an in-house developed tool `PromPredict'. On applying it to predict promoter regions corresponding to the 1144 and 612 experimentally validated TSSs in E. coli (50.8% GC) and B. subtilis (43.5% GC) sensitivity of 99% and 95% and precision values of 58% and 60%, respectively, were achieved. For the limited data set of 81 TSSs available for M. tuberculosis (65.6% GC) a sensitivity of 100% and precision of 49% was obtained.

Dynamic pressure modulation for solar desalination system

Obtaining drinking water from seawater is usually done through the process of desalination. The conventional desalination processes at present are centralized, require huge capital cost, and enormous amount of concentrated energy from fossil fuel. Issues like optimal chamber pressure, pressure control and energy savings for desalination are not adequately addressed. This paper proposes a novel pressure control method by means of dynamic pressure modulation within the evaporation chamber. A performance index is proposed that results in a dynamic optimal external pressure and maximum energy saving for a specific flow rate. Experimental results from the laboratory setup that validate the proposed concepts are presented in the paper. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Singular value decomposition based computationally efficient algorithm for rapid dynamic near-infrared diffuse optical tomography

Purpose: A computationally efficient algorithm (linear iterative type) based on singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian has been developed that can be used in rapid dynamic near-infrared (NIR) diffuse optical tomography. Methods: Numerical and experimental studies have been conducted to prove the computational efficacy of this SVD-based algorithm over conventional optical image reconstruction algorithms. Results: These studies indicate that the performance of linear iterative algorithms in terms of contrast recovery (quantitation of optical images) is better compared to nonlinear iterative (conventional) algorithms, provided the initial guess is close to the actual solution. The nonlinear algorithms can provide better quality images compared to the linear iterative type algorithms. Moreover, the analytical and numerical equivalence of the SVD-based algorithm to linear iterative algorithms was also established as a part of this work. It is also demonstrated that the SVD-based image reconstruction typically requires O(NN2) operations per iteration, as contrasted with linear and nonlinear iterative methods that, respectively, requir O(NN3) and O(NN6) operations, with ``NN'' being the number of unknown parameters in the optical image reconstruction procedure. Conclusions: This SVD-based computationally efficient algorithm can make the integration of image reconstruction procedure with the data acquisition feasible, in turn making the rapid dynamic NIR tomography viable in the clinic to continuously monitor hemodynamic changes in the tissue pathophysiology.

Cross-Layer Scheduling with Infrequent Channel and Queue Measurements

The downlink scheduling problem in multi-queue multi-server systems under channel uncertainty is considered. Two policies that make allocations based on predicted channel states are proposed. The first is an extension of the well-known dynamic backpressure policy to the uncertain channel case. The second is a variant that improves delay performance under light loads. The stability region of the system is characterised and the first policy is argued to be throughput optimal. A recently proposed policy of Kar et al [1] has lesser complexity, but is shown to be throughput suboptimal. Further, simulations demonstrate better delay and backlog properties for both our policies at light loads.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Compact fiber Bragg grating dynamic strain sensor cum broadband thermometer for thermally unstable ambience

An instrument for simultaneous measurement of dynamic strain and temperature in a thermally unstable ambience has been proposed, based on fiber Bragg grating technology. The instrument can function as a compact and stand-alone broadband thermometer and a dynamic strain gauge. It employs a source wavelength tracking procedure for linear dependence of the output on the measurand, offering high dynamic range. Two schemes have been demonstrated with their relative merits. As a thermometer, the present instrumental configuration can offer a linear response in excess of 500 degrees C that can be easily extended by adding a suitable grating and source without any alteration in the procedure. Temperature sensitivity is about 0.06 degrees C for a bandwidth of 1 Hz. For the current grating, the upper limit of strain measurement is about 150 mu epsilon with a sensitivity of about 80 n epsilon Hz(-1/2). The major source of uncertainty associated with dynamic strain measurement is the laser source intensity noise, which is of broad spectral band. A low noise source device or the use of optical power regulators can offer improved performance. The total harmonic distortion is less than 0.5% up to about 50 mu epsilon, 1.2% at 100 mu epsilon and about 2.3% at 150 mu epsilon. Calibrated results of temperature and strain measurement with the instrument have been presented. Traces of ultrasound signals recorded by the system at 200 kHz, in an ambience of 100-200 degrees C temperature fluctuation, have been included. Also, the vibration spectrum and engine temperature of a running internal combustion engine has been recorded as a realistic application of the system.

Beyond fractional derivatives: local approximation of other convolution integrals

Dynamic systems involving convolution integrals with decaying kernels, of which fractionally damped systems form a special case, are non-local in time and hence infinite dimensional. Straightforward numerical solution of such systems up to time t needs O(t(2)) computations owing to the repeated evaluation of integrals over intervals that grow like t. Finite-dimensional and local approximations are thus desirable. We present here an approximation method which first rewrites the evolution equation as a coupled in finite-dimensional system with no convolution, and then uses Galerkin approximation with finite elements to obtain linear, finite-dimensional, constant coefficient approximations for the convolution. This paper is a broad generalization, based on a new insight, of our prior work with fractional order derivatives (Singh & Chatterjee 2006 Nonlinear Dyn. 45, 183-206). In particular, the decaying kernels we can address are now generalized to the Laplace transforms of known functions; of these, the power law kernel of fractional order differentiation is a special case. The approximation can be refined easily. The local nature of the approximation allows numerical solution up to time t with O(t) computations. Examples with several different kernels show excellent performance. A key feature of our approach is that the dynamic system in which the convolution integral appears is itself approximated using another system, as distinct from numerically approximating just the solution for the given initial values; this allows non-standard uses of the approximation, e. g. in stability analyses.

Convergence analysis of the Newton algorithm and a pseudo-time marching scheme for diffuse correlation tomography

We propose a self-regularized pseudo-time marching scheme to solve the ill-posed, nonlinear inverse problem associated with diffuse propagation of coherent light in a tissuelike object. In particular, in the context of diffuse correlation tomography (DCT), we consider the recovery of mechanical property distributions from partial and noisy boundary measurements of light intensity autocorrelation. We prove the existence of a minimizer for the Newton algorithm after establishing the existence of weak solutions for the forward equation of light amplitude autocorrelation and its Frechet derivative and adjoint. The asymptotic stability of the solution of the ordinary differential equation obtained through the introduction of the pseudo-time is also analyzed. We show that the asymptotic solution obtained through the pseudo-time marching converges to that optimal solution provided the Hessian of the forward equation is positive definite in the neighborhood of optimal solution. The superior noise tolerance and regularization-insensitive nature of pseudo-dynamic strategy are proved through numerical simulations in the context of both DCT and diffuse optical tomography. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America.

A Kalman filter based strategy for linear structural system identification based on multiple static and dynamic test data

The problem of identification of stiffness, mass and damping properties of linear structural systems, based on multiple sets of measurement data originating from static and dynamic tests is considered. A strategy, within the framework of Kalman filter based dynamic state estimation, is proposed to tackle this problem. The static tests consists of measurement of response of the structure to slowly moving loads, and to static loads whose magnitude are varied incrementally; the dynamic tests involve measurement of a few elements of the frequency response function (FRF) matrix. These measurements are taken to be contaminated by additive Gaussian noise. An artificial independent variable τ, that simultaneously parameterizes the point of application of the moving load, the magnitude of the incrementally varied static load and the driving frequency in the FRFs, is introduced. The state vector is taken to consist of system parameters to be identified. The fact that these parameters are independent of the variable τ is taken to constitute the set of ‘process’ equations. The measurement equations are derived based on the mechanics of the problem and, quantities, such as displacements and/or strains, are taken to be measured. A recursive algorithm that employs a linearization strategy based on Neumann’s expansion of structural static and dynamic stiffness matrices, and, which provides posterior estimates of the mean and covariance of the unknown system parameters, is developed. The satisfactory performance of the proposed approach is illustrated by considering the problem of the identification of the dynamic properties of an inhomogeneous beam and the axial rigidities of members of a truss structure.

Aqueous colloidal stability evaluated by zeta potential measurement and resultant TiO2 for superior photovoltaic performance

Controlling the morphological structure of titanium dioxide (TiO 2) is crucial for obtaining superior power conversion efficiency for dye-sensitized solar cells. Although the sol-gel-based process has been developed for this purpose, there has been limited success in resisting the aggregation of nanostructured TiO2, which could act as an obstacle for mass production. Herein, we report a simple approach to improve the efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC) by controlling the degree of aggregation and particle surface charge through zeta potential analysis. We found that different aqueous colloidal conditions, i.e., potential of hydrogen (pH), water/titanium alkoxide (titanium isopropoxide) ratio, and surface charge, obviously led to different particle sizes in the range of 10-500 nm. We have also shown that particles prepared under acidic conditions are more effective for DSSC application regarding the modification of surface charges to improve dye loading and electron injection rate properties. Power conversion efficiency of 6.54%, open-circuit voltage of 0.73 V, short-circuit current density of 15.32 mA/cm2, and fill factor of 0.73 were obtained using anatase TiO 2 optimized to 10-20 nm in size, as well as by the use of a compact TiO2 blocking layer.

Sinteractivity, proton conductivity and chemical stability of BaZr 0.7In0.3O3-δ for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs)

In3+ was used as dopant for BaZrO3 proton conductor and 30 at%-doped BaZrO3 samples (BaZr0.7In 0.3O3-δ, BZI) were prepared as electrolyte materials for proton-conducting solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). The BZI material showed a much improved sinteractivity compared with the conventional Y-doped BaZrO 3. The BZI pellets reached almost full density after sintering at 1600 °C for 10 h, whereas the Y-doped BaZrO3 samples still remained porous under the same sintering conditions. The conductivity measurements indicated that BZI pellets showed smaller bulk but improved grain boundary proton conductivity, when compared with Y-doped BaZrO3 samples. A total proton conductivity of 1.7 × 10-3 S cm -1 was obtained for the BZI sample at 700 °C in wet 10% H 2 atmosphere. The BZI electrolyte material also showed adequate chemical stability against CO2 and H2O, which is promising for application in fuel cells.

Influence of spatial variability of permeability property on steady state seepage flow and slope stability analysis

In recent years, spatial variability modeling of soil parameters using random field theory has gained distinct importance in geotechnical analysis. In the present Study, commercially available finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0 is used for modeling the permeability parameter as spatially correlated log-normally distributed random variable and its influence on the steady state seepage flow and on the slope stability analysis are studied. Considering the case of a 5.0 m high cohesive-frictional soil slope of 30 degrees, a range of coefficients of variation (CoV%) from 60 to 90% in the permeability Values, and taking different values of correlation distance in the range of 0.5-15 m, parametric studies, using Monte Carlo simulations, are performed to study the following three aspects, i.e., (i) effect ostochastic soil permeability on the statistics of seepage flow in comparison to the analytic (Dupuit's) solution available for the uniformly constant permeability property; (ii) strain and deformation pattern, and (iii) stability of the given slope assessed in terms of factor of safety (FS). The results obtained in this study are useful to understand the role of permeability variations in slope stability analysis under different slope conditions and material properties. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of stability of earthen dams in kachchh region, Gujarat, India

The Kachchh region of Gujarat, India bore the brunt of a disastrous earthquake of magnitude M-w=7.6 that occurred on January 26, 2001. The major cause of failure of various structures including earthen dams was noted to be the presence of liquefiable alluvium in the foundation soil. Results of back-analysis of failures of Chang, Tappar, Kaswati and Rudramata earth dams using pseudo-static limit equilibrium approach presented in this paper confirm that the presence of liquefiable layer contributed to lesser factors of safety leading to a base type of failure that was also observed in the field. Following the earthquake, earth dams have been rehabilitated by the concerned authority and it is imperative that the reconstructed sections of earth dams be reanalyzed. It is also increasingly realized that risk assessment of dams in view of the large-scale investment made and probabilistic analysis is necessary. In this study, it is demonstrated that the probabilistic approach when used in conjunction with deterministic approach helps in providing a rational solution for quantification of safety of the dam and in the estimation of risk associated with the dam construction. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.