954 resultados para Discrete-events simulation
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In this study, three strains of Trypanosoma cruzi were isolated at the same time and in the same endemic region in Mexico from a human patient with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (RyC-H); vector (Triatoma barberi) (RyC-V); and rodent reservoir (Peromyscus peromyscus) (RyC-R). The three strains were characterized by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis, random amplified polymorphic DNA, and by pathological profiles in experimental animals (biodemes). Based on the analysis of genetic markers the three parasite strains were typed as belonging to T. cruzi I major group, discrete typing unit 1. The pathological profile of RyC-H and RyC-V strains indicated medium virulence and low mortality and, accordingly, the strains should be considered as belonging to biodeme Type III. On the other hand, the parasites from RyC-R strain induced more severe inflammatory processes and high mortality (> 40%) and were considered as belonging to biodeme Type II. The relationship between genotypes and biological characteristics in T. cruzi strains is still debated and not clearly understood. An expert committee recommended in 1999 that Biodeme Type III would correspond to T. cruzi I group, whereas Biodeme Type II, to T. cruzi II group. Our findings suggest that, at least for Mexican isolates, this correlation does not stand and that biological characteristics such as pathogenicity and virulence could be determined by factors different from those identified in the genotypic characterization
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Resistance and susceptibility to infection with the intracellular parasite, Leishmania major, are mediated by parasite-specific CD4+ Th1 and Th2 cells, respectively. It is well established that the protective effect of parasite-specific CD4+ Th1 cells is largely dependent upon the IFN-gamma produced. However, recent results indicate that the effect of Th1 cells on resolution of lesions induced by L. major in genetically resistant mice also requires a functional Fas-FasL pathway of cytotoxicity. In contrast to resistant mice, susceptible BALB/c mice develop aberrant Th2 responses following infection with L. major and consequently suffer progressive disease. These outcomes clearly depends upon the production of interleukin 4 (IL-4) early after infection. We have shown that a burst of IL-4 mRNA, peaking in draining lymph nodes of BALB/c mice 16 hrs after infection, occurs within CD4+ T cells that express V beta 4-V alpha 8 T cell receptors. In contrast to control and V beta 6-deficient mice, V beta 4-deficient BALB/c mice were resistant to infection, demonstrating the role of these cells in Th2 development. The early IL-4 response was absent in these mice, and Th1 responses occurred following infection. The LACK antigen of L. major induced comparable IL-4 production in V beta 4-V alpha 8 CD4+ T cells. Thus, the IL-4 required for Th2 development and susceptibility to L. major is produced by a restricted population of V beta 4-V alpha 8 CD4+ T cells after cognate interaction with a single antigen from this complex parasite. The IL-4 produced rapidly by these CD4+ T cells induces within 48 hours a state of unresponsiveness to IL-12 among parasite-specific CD4+ T cell precursors by downregulating the IL-12 receptor beta 2 chain expression.
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This guidance is intended for use by organisers of events such as music festivals or agricultural shows where a temporary water supply may be required. It applies to all events that may require a connection to a new water supply as well as events that may require a connection to an existing supply, e.g. annual events taking place on the same showground.
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Background: Recently, more clinical trials are being conducted in Africa and Asia, therefore, background morbidity in the respective populations is of interest. Between 2000 and 2007, the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative sponsored 19 Phase 1 or 2A preventive HIV vaccine trials in the US, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and India, enrolling 900 healthy HIV-1 uninfected volunteers. Objective To assess background morbidity as reflected by unsolicited adverse events (AEs), unrelated to study vaccine, reported in clinical trials from four continents. Methods All but three clinical trials were double-blind, randomized, and placebo-controlled. Study procedures and data collection methods were standardized. The frequency and severity of AEs reported during the first year of the trials were analyzed. To avoid confounding by vaccine-related events, solicited reactogenicity and other AEs occurring within 28 d after any vaccination were excluded. Results In total, 2134 AEs were reported by 76% of all participants; 73% of all events were mild. The rate of AEs did not differ between placebo and vaccine recipients. Overall, the percentage of participants with any AE was higher in Africa (83%) compared with Europe (71%), US (74%) and India (65%), while the percentage of participants with AEs of moderate or greater severity was similar in all regions except India. In all regions, the most frequently reported AEs were infectious diseases, followed by gastrointestinal disorders. Conclusions Despite some regional differences, in these healthy participants selected for low risk of HIV infection, background morbidity posed no obstacle to clinical trial conduct and interpretation. Data from controlled clinical trials of preventive interventions can offer valuable insights into the health of the eligible population.
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Mechanical load-induced intracellular signaling events are important for subsequent skeletal muscle hypertrophy. We previously showed that load-induced activation of the cation channel TRPV1 caused an increase in intracellular calcium concentrations ([Ca ( 2+) ]i) and that this activated mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and promoted muscle hypertrophy. However, the link between mechanical load-induced intracellular signaling events, and the TRPV1-mediated increases in [Ca ( 2+) ]i are not fully understood. Here we show that administration of the TRPV1 agonist, capsaicin, induces phosphorylation of mTOR, p70S6K, S6, Erk1/2 and p38 MAPK, but not Akt, AMPK or GSK3β. Furthermore, the TRPV1-induced phosphorylation patterns resembled those induced by mechanical load. Our results continue to highlight the importance of TRPV1-mediated calcium signaling in load-induced intracellular signaling pathways.
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Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.
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Summary Forests are key ecosystems of the earth and associated with a large range of functions. Many of these functions are beneficial to humans and are referred to as ecosystem services. Sustainable development requires that all relevant ecosystem services are quantified, managed and monitored equally. Natural resource management therefore targets the services associated with ecosystems. The main hypothesis of this thesis is that the spatial and temporal domains of relevant services do not correspond to a discrete forest ecosystem. As a consequence, the services are not quantified, managed and monitored in an equal and sustainable manner. The thesis aims were therefore to test this hypothesis, establish an improved conceptual approach and provide spatial applications for the relevant land cover and structure variables. The study was carried out in western Switzerland and based primarily on data from a countrywide landscape inventory. This inventory is part of the third Swiss national forest inventory and assesses continuous landscape variables based on a regular sampling of true colour aerial imagery. In addition, land cover variables were derived from Landsat 5 TM passive sensor data and land structure variables from active sensor data from a small footprint laserscanning system. The results confirmed the main hypothesis, as relevant services did not scale well with the forest ecosystem. Instead, a new conceptual approach for sustainable management of natural resources was described. This concept quantifies the services as a continuous function of the landscape, rather than a discrete function of the forest ecosystem. The explanatory landscape variables are therefore called continuous fields and the forest becomes a dependent and function-driven management unit. Continuous field mapping methods were established for land cover and structure variables. In conclusion, the discrete forest ecosystem is an adequate planning and management unit. However, monitoring the state of and trends in sustainability of services requires them to be quantified as a continuous function of the landscape. Sustainable natural resource management iteratively combines the ecosystem and gradient approaches. Résumé Les forêts sont des écosystèmes-clés de la terre et on leur attribue un grand nombre de fonctions. Beaucoup de ces fonctions sont bénéfiques pour l'homme et sont nommées services écosystémiques. Le développement durable exige que ces services écosystémiques soient tous quantifiés, gérés et surveillés de façon égale. La gestion des ressources naturelles a donc pour cible les services attribués aux écosystèmes. L'hypothèse principale de cette thèse est que les domaines spatiaux et temporels des services attribués à la forêt ne correspondent pas à un écosystème discret. Par conséquent, les services ne sont pas quantifiés, aménagés et surveillés d'une manière équivalente et durable. Les buts de la thèse étaient de tester cette hypothèse, d'établir une nouvelle approche conceptuelle de la gestion des ressources naturelles et de préparer des applications spatiales pour les variables paysagères et structurelles appropriées. L'étude a été menée en Suisse occidentale principalement sur la base d'un inventaire de paysage à l'échelon national. Cet inventaire fait partie du troisième inventaire forestier national suisse et mesure de façon continue des variables paysagères sur la base d'un échantillonnage régulier sur des photos aériennes couleur. En outre, des variables de couverture ? terrestre ont été dérivées des données d'un senseur passif Landsat 5 TM, ainsi que des variables structurelles, dérivées du laserscanning, un senseur actif. Les résultats confirment l'hypothèse principale, car l'échelle des services ne correspond pas à celle de l'écosystème forestier. Au lieu de cela, une nouvelle approche a été élaborée pour la gestion durable des ressources naturelles. Ce concept représente les services comme une fonction continue du paysage, plutôt qu'une fonction discrète de l'écosystème forestier. En conséquence, les variables explicatives de paysage sont dénommées continuous fields et la forêt devient une entité dépendante, définie par la fonction principale du paysage. Des méthodes correspondantes pour la couverture terrestre et la structure ont été élaborées. En conclusion, l'écosystème forestier discret est une unité adéquate pour la planification et la gestion. En revanche, la surveillance de la durabilité de l'état et de son évolution exige que les services soient quantifiés comme fonction continue du paysage. La gestion durable des ressources naturelles joint donc l'approche écosystémique avec celle du gradient de manière itérative.
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Background. RET is the major gene associated to Hirschsprung disease (HSCR) with differential contributions of its rare and common, coding and noncoding mutations to the multifactorial nature of this pathology. In the present study, we have performed a comprehensive study of our HSCR series evaluating the involvement of both RET rare variants (RVs) and common variants (CVs) in the context of the disease. Methods. RET mutational screening was performed by dHPLC and direct sequencing for the identification of RVs. In addition Taqman technology was applied for the genotyping of 3 RET CVs previously associated to HSCR, including a variant lying in an enhancer domain within RET intron 1 (rs2435357). Statistical analyses were performed using the SPSS v.17.0 to analyze the distribution of the variants. Results. Our results confirm the strongest association to HSCR for the "enhancer" variant, and demonstrate a significantly higher impact of it in male versus female patients. Integration of the RET RVs and CVs analysis showed that in 91.66% of cases with both kinds of mutational events, the enhancer allele is in trans with the allele bearing the RET RV. Conclusions. A gender effect exists on both the transmission and distribution of rare coding and common HSCR causing mutations. In addition, these RET CVs and RVs seem to act in a synergistic way leading to HSCR phenotype.
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Many studies show strong variation of health consumption between regions, suggesting that theses variations are related to the uncertainty of medical practice or to other factors related to health services or patients attitude. However the statistical interpretation of these variations is far from easy: apart from usual and specific information bias, there are statistical problems when observing incidence of events like health care consumption: it is in fact a rare event, which is observed within small population, and among regions with unequal number of person. Therefore, most of the variation reported might be well explained by a purely statistical phenomenon. This paper presents some aspects of this variability for three common indicators of variation, and suggest the use of ad hoc simulation to get statistical criteria.
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Phylogenetic reconstructions of transmission events from individuals with acute human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are conducted to illustrate this group's heightened infectivity. Varied definitions of acute infection and assumptions about observed phylogenetic clusters may produce misleading results. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis of HIV pol sequences from 165 European patients with estimated infection dates and calculated the difference between dates within clusters. Nine phylogenetic clusters were observed. Comparison of dates within clusters revealed that only 2 could have been generated during acute infection. Previous analyses may have incorrectly assigned transmission events to the acutely HIV infected when they were more likely to have occurred during chronic infection.
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Under certain circumstances, it is possible to identify clonal variants of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infecting a single patient, probably as a result of subtle genetic rearrangements in part of the bacillary population. We systematically searched for these microevolution events in a different context, namely, recent transmission chains. We studied the clustered cases identified using a population-based universal molecular epidemiology strategy over a 5-year period. Clonal variants of the reference strain defining the cluster were found in 9 (12%) of the 74 clusters identified after the genotyping of 612 M. tuberculosis isolates by IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable-number tandem repeat typing. Clusters with microevolution events were epidemiologically supported and involved 4 to 9 cases diagnosed over a 1- to 5-year period. The IS6110 insertion sites from 16 representative isolates of reference and microevolved variants were mapped by ligation-mediated PCR in order to characterize the genetic background involved in microevolution. Both intragenic and intergenic IS6110 locations resulted from these microevolution events. Among those cases of IS6110 locations in intergenic regions which could have an effect on the regulation of adjacent genes, we identified the overexpression of cytochrome P450 in one microevolved variant using quantitative real-time reverse transcription-PCR. Our results help to define the frequency with which microevolution can be expected in M. tuberculosis transmission chains. They provide a snapshot of the genetic background of these subtle rearrangements and identify an event in which IS6110-mediated microevolution in an isogenic background has functional consequences.
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Le modèle développé à l'Institut universitaire de médecine sociale et préventive de Lausanne utilise un programme informatique pour simuler les mouvements d'entrées et de sorties des hôpitaux de soins généraux. Cette simulation se fonde sur les données récoltées de routine dans les hôpitaux; elle tient notamment compte de certaines variations journalières et saisonnières, du nombre d'entrées, ainsi que du "Case-Mix" de l'hôpital, c'est-à-dire de la répartition des cas selon les groupes cliniques et l'âge des patients.
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This paper examines a dataset which is modeled well by thePoisson-Log Normal process and by this process mixed with LogNormal data, which are both turned into compositions. Thisgenerates compositional data that has zeros without any need forconditional models or assuming that there is missing or censoreddata that needs adjustment. It also enables us to model dependenceon covariates and within the composition