Effects of self-assessment scripts on self-regulation and learning. 'Efecto de los guiones de autoevaluación en la autorregulación y el aprendizaje'.

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The impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the atmospheric pollutant variability in the Porto region, Portugal

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important large-scale atmospheric circulation that influences the European countries climate. This study evaluated NAO impact in air quality in Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), Portugal, for the period 2002-2006. NAO, air pollutants and meteorological data were statistically analyzed. All data were obtained from PMA Weather Station, PMA Air Quality Stations and NOAA analysis. Two statistical methods were applied in different time scale : principal component and correlation coefficient. Annual time scale, using multivariate analysis (PCA, principal component analysis), were applied in order to identified positive and significant association between air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO and NO2, with NAO. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient using seasonal time scale were also applied to the same data. The results of PCA analysis present a general negative significant association between the total precipitation and NAO, in Factor 1 and 2 (explaining around 70% of the variance), presented in the years of 2002, 2004 and 2005. During the same years, some air pollutants (such as PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx and CO) present also a positive association with NAO. The O3 shows as well a positive association with NAP during 2002 and 2004, at 2nd Factor, explaining 30% of the variance. From the seasonal analysis using correlation coefficient, it was found significant correlation between PM10 (0.72., p<0.05, in 2002), PM2.5 (0 74, p<0.05, in 2004), and SO2 (0.78, p<0.01, in 2002) with NAO during March-December (no winter period) period. Significant associations between air pollutants and NAO were also verified in the winter period (December to April) mainly with ozone (2005, r=-0.55, p.<0.01). Once that human health and hospital morbidities may be affected by air pollution, the results suggest that NAO forecast can be an important tool to prevent them, in the Iberian Peninsula and specially Portugal.

Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales?

Previous studies have argued that the autocorrelation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index provides evidence of unusually persistent intraseasonal dynamics. We demonstrate that the autocorrelation on intraseasonal time-scales of 10–30 days is sensitive to the presence of interannual variability, part of which arises from the sampling of intraseasonal variability and the remainder of which we consider to be “externally forced”. Modelling the intraseasonal variability of the NAO as a red noise process we estimate, for winter, ~70% of the interannual variability is externally forced, whereas for summer sampling accounts for almost all of the interannual variability. Correcting for the externally forced interannual variability has a major impact on the autocorrelation function for winter. When externally forced interannual variability is taken into account the intrinsic persistence of the NAO is very similar in summer and winter (~5 days). This finding has implications for understanding the dynamics of the NAO.

New radiocarbon accelerator dates on artefacts from the early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, North Yorkshire

For the well-known early Mesolithic site of Star Carr, dating of organic artefacts by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) has been hampered by treatment of bone and antler recovered during the original excavations with preservatives. Some, untreated, artefacts were, however, collected after Clark's excavation in 1950. Four of these artefacts were AMS dated in 1995, but two of the dates were significantly younger than the others, and were questionable due to their low collagen yields. These suspect samples have now been re-analysed, demonstrating that all four artefacts are of similar date. The significance of these dates for the chronology of Star Carr is discussed.

Coupled simulations of the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation using a fine-resolution mixed-layer ocean model

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Indian summer monsoon is dominated by a 30–50 day oscillation between “active” and “break” events of enhanced and reduced rainfall over the subcontinent, respectively. These organized convective events form in the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate north to India. Atmosphere–ocean coupled processes are thought to play a key role the intensity and propagation of these events. A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer-oceanmodel is assembled: HadKPP. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) and the K Profile Parameterization (KPP) mixed-layer ocean model. Following studies that upper-ocean vertical resolution and sub-diurnal coupling frequencies improve the simulation of ISV in SSTs, KPP is run at 1 m vertical resolution near the surface; the atmosphere and ocean are coupled every three hours. HadKPP accurately simulates the 30–50 day ISV in rainfall and SSTs over India and the Bay of Bengal, respectively, but suffers from low ISV on the equator. This is due to the HadAM3 convection scheme producing limited ISV in surface fluxes. HadKPP demonstrates little of the observed northward propagation of intraseasonal events, producing instead a standing oscillation. The lack of equatorial ISV in convection in HadAM3 constrains the ability of KPP to produce equatorial SST anomalies, which further weakens the ISV of convection. It is concluded that while atmosphere–ocean interactions are undoubtedly essential to an accurate simulation of ISV, they are not a panacea for model deficiencies. In regions where the atmospheric forcing is adequate, such as the Bay of Bengal, KPP produces SST anomalies that are comparable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) SST analyses in both their magnitude and their timing with respect to rainfall anomalies over India. HadKPP also displays a much-improved phase relationship between rainfall and SSTs over a HadAM3 ensemble forced by observed SSTs, when both are compared to observations. Coupling to mixed-layer models such as KPP has the potential to improve operational predictions of ISV, particularly when the persistence time of SST anomalies is shorter than the forecast lead time.

The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

Granger causality of coupled climate processes: Ocean feedback on the North Atlantic oscillation

This study uses a Granger causality time series modeling approach to quantitatively diagnose the feedback of daily sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on daily values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as simulated by a realistic coupled general circulation model (GCM). Bivariate vector autoregressive time series models are carefully fitted to daily wintertime SST and NAO time series produced by a 50-yr simulation of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). The approach demonstrates that there is a small yet statistically significant feedback of SSTs oil the NAO. The SST tripole index is found to provide additional predictive information for the NAO than that available by using only past values of NAO-the SST tripole is Granger causal for the NAO. Careful examination of local SSTs reveals that much of this effect is due to the effect of SSTs in the region of the Gulf Steam, especially south of Cape Hatteras. The effect of SSTs on NAO is responsible for the slower-than-exponential decay in lag-autocorrelations of NAO notable at lags longer than 10 days. The persistence induced in daily NAO by SSTs causes long-term means of NAO to have more variance than expected from averaging NAO noise if there is no feedback of the ocean on the atmosphere. There are greater long-term trends in NAO than can be expected from aggregating just short-term atmospheric noise, and NAO is potentially predictable provided that future SSTs are known. For example, there is about 10%-30% more variance in seasonal wintertime means of NAO and almost 70% more variance in annual means of NAO due to SST effects than one would expect if NAO were a purely atmospheric process.