974 resultados para Deterministic Trend.


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Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

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In the past fifteen years, increasing attention has been given to the role of Vocational Education and Training (VET) in attracting large numbers of international students and its contribution to the economic development of Australia. This trend has given rise to many challenges in vocational education, especially with regard to providing quality education that ensures international students' stay in Australia is a satisfactory experience. Teaching and learning is continuously scrutinized, teaching quality and student assessment are subject to regular audit (Takerei, 2010). VET teachers are key stakeholders in international education and share responsibility for ensuring international students gain quality learning experiences and positive outcomes, however, their experiences are generally not well understood. Therefore, this thesis, investigates particular challenges and associated dilemmas that VET teachers experience when teaching international students. The research participants were 15 teachers from several public and private VET institutions in Brisbane, Australia. The method involved responsive interviewing and inductive data analysis to identify and categorize teachers' challenges and dilemmas. The research reveals qualitatively different ways in which the 15 VET educators experienced challenges and associated dilemmas in their culturally diverse teaching context. The research shows that VET teachers experience numerous challenges and various inter-related professional, educational and personal dilemmas. These dilemmas result from ethical tensions teachers experience in their interactions with international students, teaching colleagues and their employment institutions. The dilemmas are often influenced by current economic and political conditions of international education. The dilemmas raised in the study by 15 VET teachers might be familiar to other teachers in VET and universities but to date they have received limited attention by researchers. This study's findings indicate significant implications for VET teachers, students, VET institutions and the government at a time of rapid economic, political, cultural and educational change. The findings are of potential interest to VET policy makers, managers and teachers. By giving voice to VET teachers, who are key stakeholders in the sustainability and future growth of VET, they contribute evidence for ongoing review and development of quality learning and teaching in the culturally diverse VET sector.

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Background The pattern of protein intake following exercise may impact whole-body protein turnover and net protein retention. We determined the effects of different protein feeding strategies on protein metabolism in resistance-trained young men. Methods: Participants were randomly assigned to ingest either 80g of whey protein as 8x10g every 1.5h (PULSE; n=8), 4x20g every 3h (intermediate, INT; n=7), or 2x40g every 6h (BOLUS; n=8) after an acute bout of bilateral knee extension exercise (4x10 repetitions at 80% maximal strength). Whole-body protein turnover (Q), synthesis (S), breakdown (B), and net balance (NB) were measured throughout 12h of recovery by a bolus ingestion of [ 15N]glycine with urinary [15N]ammonia enrichment as the collected end-product. Results PULSE Q rates were greater than BOLUS (?19%, P<0.05) with a trend towards being greater than INT (?9%, P=0.08). Rates of S were 32% and 19% greater and rates of B were 51% and 57% greater for PULSE as compared to INT and BOLUS, respectively (P<0.05), with no difference between INT and BOLUS. There were no statistical differences in NB between groups (P=0.23); however, magnitude-based inferential statistics revealed likely small (mean effect90%CI; 0.590.87) and moderate (0.800.91) increases in NB for PULSE and INT compared to BOLUS and possible small increase (0.421.00) for INT vs. PULSE. Conclusion We conclude that the pattern of ingested protein, and not only the total daily amount, can impact whole-body protein metabolism. Individuals aiming to maximize NB would likely benefit from repeated ingestion of moderate amounts of protein (?20g) at regular intervals (?3h) throughout the day.

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Resistance training results in skeletal muscle hypertrophy, but the molecular signalling mechanisms responsible for this altered phenotype are incompletely understood. We used a resistance training (RT) protocol consisting of three sessions [day 1 (d1), day 3 (d3), day 5 (d5)] separated by 48 h recovery (squat exercise, 4 sets × 10 repetitions, 3 min recovery) to determine early signalling responses to RT in rodent skeletal muscle. Six animals per group were killed 3 h after each resistance training session and 24 and 48 h after the last training session (d5). There was a robust increase in TNF? protein expression, and IKKSer180/181 and p38MAPK Thr180/Tyr182 phosphorylation on d1 (P < 0.05), which abated with subsequent RT, returning to control levels by d5 for TNF? and IKK Ser180/181. There was a trend for a decrease in MuRF-1 protein expression, 48 h following d5 of training (P = 0.08). Notably, muscle myofibrillar protein concentration was elevated compared to control 24 and 48 h following RT (P < 0.05). AktSer473 and mTORSer2448 phosphorylation were unchanged throughout RT. Phosphorylation of p70S6k Thr389 increased 3 h post-exercise on d1, d3 and d5 (P < 0.05), whilst phosphorylation of S6Ser235/236 increased on d1 and d3 (P < 0.05). Our results show a rapid attenuation of inflammatory signalling with repeated bouts of resistance exercise, concomitant with summation in translation initiation signalling in skeletal muscle. Indeed, the cumulative effect of these signalling events was associated with myofibrillar protein accretion, which likely contributes to the early adaptations in response to resistance training overload in the skeletal muscle.

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This paper describes current issues in chemotherapy nursing practice in rural and remote Australia. There is a trend to refer chemotherapy clients back to their rural and remote health facility for treatment from major oncology centres in Australia. However, it is increasingly apparent that the majority of nurses administering chemotherapy in smaller centres lack the theoretical and clinical knowledge to ensure optimum client outcomes and nurse/client safety. There are also issues unique to rural and remote life which will influence optimum chemotherapy service delivery. The research program described in the paper will ascertain the education requirements of rural and remote nurses administering chemotherapy and the design and delivery of a chemotherapy education package specific to the rural and remote context. Similar programs will ensure the best standards of chemotherapy practice in non-metropolitan areas by enhancing the practical and theoretical knowledge base of rural and remote nurses.

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Despite research that has been conducted elsewhere, little is known, to-date, about land cover dynamics and their impacts on land surface temperature (LST) in fast growing mega cities of developing countries. Landsat satellite images of 1989, 1999, and 2009 of Dhaka Metropolitan (DMP) area were used for analysis. This study first identified patterns of land cover changes between the periods and investigated their impacts on LST; second, applied artificial neural network to simulate land cover changes for 2019 and 2029; and finally, estimated their impacts on LST in respective periods. Simulation results show that if the current trend continues, 56% and 87% of the DMP area will likely to experience temperatures in the range of greater than or equal to 30°C in 2019 and 2029, respectively. The findings possess a major challenge for urban planners working in similar contexts. However, the technique presented in this paper would help them to quantify the impacts of different scenarios (e.g., vegetation loss to accommodate urban growth) on LST and consequently to devise appropriate policy measures.

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Objective To explore the characteristics of regional distribution of cancer deaths in Shandong Province with the principle components analysis. Methods The principle components analysis with co-variance matrix for age-adjusted mortality rates and percentages of 20 types of cancer in 22 counties (cities) were carried out using SAS Software. Results Over 90% of the total information could be reflected by the top 3 principle components and the first principle component alone represented more than half of the overall regional variances. The first component mainly reflected the area differences of esophageal cancer. The second component mainly reflected the area differences of lung cancer, stomach cancer and liver cancer. The value of the first principal component scores showed a clear trend that the west areas possessed higher values and the east the lower values. Based on the top two components,the 22 counties (cities) could be divided into several geographical clusters. Conclusion The overall difference of regional distribution of cancers in Shandong is dominated by several major cancers including esophageal cancer, lung cancer, stomach cancer and liver cancer. Among them,esophageal cancer makes the largest contribution. If the range of counties (cities) analyzed could be further widened, the characteristics of regional distribution of cancer mortality would be better examined. Abstract in Chinese 目的 利用主成分分析探讨山东省恶性肿瘤死亡的地区分布特征. 方法 利用SAS软件对山东省22个县市区2004~2006午的20种恶性肿瘤标化死亡率和构成比分别进行协方差矩阵主成分分析. 结果 前3个主成分就反映了总体差异90%以上的信息,其中仅第1主成分就提供了总体差异一半以上的信息.第1主成分主要反映了食管癌的地区差异,第2主成分主要反映肺癌的地区差异,兼顾胃癌和肝癌.各地区第1主成分得分呈现西高东低的趋势,根据第1和第2主成分可以将调查地区分为若干类别,表现为明显的地理聚集性. 结论 山东省各地区恶性肿瘤死亡的总体差异主要取决于少数高发肿瘤,包括食管癌、肺癌、胃癌、肝癌等,其中以食管癌地位最为突出.如能进一步扩大分析范围,可更好地查明恶性肿瘤死亡的地区特征.

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Objective To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005,and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors. Methods Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s,but had increased since 1990s.However,both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group Ⅰ diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs)including cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group Ⅰ disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole. Demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors. Conclusion Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group Ⅰ diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.

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This analysis showed that cardiovascular diseases were the number cause of death claiming 34% of all deaths. More than half (52%) of all cardiovascular deaths were due to Cerebrovascular diseases and about one-third (32%) were due to ischaemic heart disease. The mortality of cardiovascular diseases showed an increasing trend during this period (1993-1997). Abstract in Chinese 心血管疾病是威胁人们健康的重要疾病之一,在居民死因中占主要位置。为了解心血管疾病死亡状况,我们对寿光市农村疾病监测点1993~1997年居民死亡资料进行了统计分析,现报告如下。(标化死亡率采用1990年全国标准人口构成计算)。1993~1997年监测...

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Among people living in rural areas of Shouguang City, Shandong, China, 88% of deaths were caused by chronic non-communicable diseases. Cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancers accounted for 97% of all chronic disease causes and 85% of all causes of death. The proportion of chronic causes increased by 27% from 1993 to 2000. However, the mortality of respiratory diseases showed a decreasing trend over time. Abstract in Chinese 篇首: 随着生活水平的提高,慢性非传染性疾病在居民死因谱中所占比重越来越大,为准确反映居民的死因状况,为农村地区慢性病的控制工作提供科学依据,本文对寿光市农村疾病监测点1993~2000年居民的慢性病死因进行了分析.

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Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in preventing pneumonia, diagnosed radiologically according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, among indigenous infants in the Northern Territory of Australia. Methods We conducted a historical cohort study of consecutive indigenous birth cohorts between 1 April 1998 and 28 February 2005. Children were followed up to 18 months of age. The PCV7 programme commenced on 1 June 2001. All chest X-rays taken within 3 days of any hospitalization were assessed. The primary endpoint was a first episode of WHO-defined pneumonia requiring hospitalization. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare disease incidence. Findings There were 526 pneumonia events among 10 600 children - an incidence of 3.3 per 1000 child-months; 183 episodes (34.8%) occurred before 5 months of age and 247 (47.0%) by 7 months. Of the children studied, 27% had received 3 doses of vaccine by 7 months of age. Hazard ratios for endpoint pneumonia were 1.01 for 1 versus 0 doses; 1.03 for 2 versus 0 doses; and 0.84 for 3 versus 0 doses. Conclusion There was limited evidence that PCV7 reduced the incidence of radiologically confirmed pneumonia among Northern Territory indigenous infants, although there was a non-significant trend towards an effect after receipt of the third dose. These findings might be explained by lack of timely vaccination and/or occurrence of disease at an early age. Additionally, the relative contribution of vaccine-type pneumococcus to severe pneumonia in a setting where multiple other pathogens are prevalent may differ with respect to other settings where vaccine efficacy has been clearly established.

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Introduction: Mothers’ sleep during the postpartum period is commonly characterised by bouts of sleep across the night, resulting in low sleep efficiency and daytime sleepiness. Understanding of the nature of mothers’ sleep disruption needs to incorporate indices of both sleep quantity and sleep quality, but objective assessment of sleep disturbance experienced during the first postpartum months has not been investigated in great detail. This longitudinal study aimed to objectively measure mothers’ sleep during the first 18 weeks postpartum, to ascertain the level of sleep disturbance experienced. Method: Eleven mothers (Mean age = 29.82, SD = 4.45) from Australia wore Actiwatch-2 devices for up to 7 days and nights at 6, 12 and 18 weeks postpartum. For each night of recording, a number of sleep bouts were identified. Total sleep time (TST) was calculated as the total number of minutes across the night within these bouts. Sleep efficiency was calculated as the percentage of minutes across the night classified as being part of a sleep bout, with higher scores indicating higher efficiency. Sleep quality captured the efficiency of sleep within sleep bouts, and was calculated as the percentage of epochs classified as sleep within sleep bouts, with higher scores indicating higher sleep quality. Results: At 6 weeks postpartum, mean total sleep time was 420.22 minutes (SD = 50.61). Total sleep time did not significantly differ across the assessment; however there was a trend towards an increase over time. Sleep efficiency increased across the time periods (F(2,10) = 10.30, p = .001), with a significant increase between week 12 and week 18. At 6 weeks postpartum, mean sleep quality was 93.15% (SD = 2.68) and scores did not significantly change across the assessment periods. While there was no relationship between sleep efficiency and sleep quality during weeks 6 and 12, a significant positive relationship was observed at week 18, r2 = .52, p = .013. Conclusions: Within this sample, a low level of disruption was consistently shown within the mothers’ night time sleep bouts. However, overall sleep efficiency suggested a significant proportion of time spent awake between sleep bouts. While TST remained stable over time, overall sleep efficiency improved, suggesting the mothers’ sleep was becoming more consolidated. A single sleep bout a night was not often experienced.

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Digital Human Models (DHM) have been used for over 25 years. They have evolved from simple drawing templates, which are nowadays still used in architecture, to complex and Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) integrated design and analysis tools for various ergonomic tasks. DHM are most frequently used for applications in product design and production planning, with many successful implementations documented. DHM from other domains, as for example computer user interfaces, artificial intelligence, training and education, or the entertainment industry show that there is also an ongoing development towards a comprehensive understanding and holistic modeling of human behavior. While the development of DHM for the game sector has seen significant progress in recent years, advances of DHM in the area of ergonomics have been comparatively modest. As a consequence, we need to question if current DHM systems are fit for the design of future mobile work systems. So far it appears that DHM in Ergonomics are rather limited to some traditional applications. According to Dul et al. (2012), future characteristics of Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) can be assigned to six main trends: (1) global change of work systems, (2) cultural diversity, (3) ageing, (4) information and communication technology (ICT), (5) enhanced competiveness and the need for innovation, and; (6) sustainability and corporate social responsibility. Based on a literature review, we systematically investigate the capabilities of current ergonomic DHM systems versus the ‘Future of Ergonomics’ requirements. It is found that DHMs already provide broad functionality in support of trends (1) and (2), and more limited options in regards to trend (3). Today’s DHM provide access to a broad range of national and international databases for correct differentiation and characterization of anthropometry for global populations. Some DHM explicitly address social and cultural modeling of groups of people. In comparison, the trends of growing importance of ICT (4), the need for innovation (5) and sustainability (6) are addressed primarily from a hardware-oriented and engineering perspective and not reflected in DHM. This reflects a persistent separation between hardware design (engineering) and software design (information technology) in the view of DHM – a disconnection which needs to be urgently overcome in the era of software defined user interfaces and mobile devices. The design of a mobile ICT-device is discussed to exemplify the need for a comprehensive future DHM solution. Designing such mobile devices requires an approach that includes organizational aspects as well as technical and cognitive ergonomics. Multiple interrelationships between the different aspects result in a challenging setting for future DHM. In conclusion, the ‘Future of Ergonomics’ pose particular challenges for DHM in regards to the design of mobile work systems, and moreover mobile information access.

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The term 'penal populism' is now reflexively used by criminologists to describe what many see as a dominant trend within penal policymaking in many western countries. The epithet 'populist' is used with no Jess frequency by media and other public commentators to refer (always pejoratively) to this or that political announcement, policy or style of political leadership, whether the context be specifically related to crime or some other arena of public affairs. In most accounts 'penal populism' (or 'populist punitiveness': Bottoms, 1995) is treated as a composite term. The two words are inseparably coupled and it is the penal that receives most of the detailed attention. As in more general political commentary, populism is tacitly understood as a negative and rather dangerous phenomenon, suggestive of manipulation, shallow-ness and demagoguery: in short, a corruption of normal, healthy democratic politics. As against such accounts, I want to suggest that debate about penal policymaking and its future -and particularly the prospects for more progressive policymaking in the area -would be assisted if populism was taken more seriously both conceptually and politically. This requires a decoupling of the concept of populism from what is habitually taken to be its punitive partner and that which defines its content. Currently the term is used without clear definition, let alone conceptual elaboration, to reference political pathology. Instead populism should be examined as a regular, meaningful dimension of contemporary political practice that has to be understood and engaged, not just denounced and extirpated. That is, I am seeking to make a case for bringing populism in from the despised margins to the centre of political practice and reflection. I will also briefly consider some of the implications this may have for penal politics specifically.

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INTRODUCTION: Performance status (PS) 2 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) experience more toxicity, lower response rates, and shorter survival times than healthier patients treated with standard chemotherapy. Paclitaxel poliglumex (PPX), a macromolecule drug conjugate of paclitaxel and polyglutamic acid, reduces systemic exposure to peak concentrations of free paclitaxel and may lead to increased concentrations in tumors due to enhanced vascular permeability. METHODS: Chemotherapy-naive PS 2 patients with advanced NSCLC were randomized to receive carboplatin (area under the curve = 6) and either PPX (210 mg/m/10 min without routine steroid premedication) or paclitaxel (225 mg/m/3 h with standard premedication) every 3 weeks. The primary end point was overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 400 patients were enrolled. Alopecia, arthralgias/myalgias, and cardiac events were significantly less frequent with PPX/carboplatin, whereas grade ≥3 neutropenia and grade 3 neuropathy showed a trend of worsening. There was no significant difference in the incidence of hypersensitivity reactions despite the absence of routine premedication in the PPX arm. Overall survival was similar between treatment arms (hazard ratio, 0.97; log rank p = 0.769). Median and 1-year survival rates were 7.9 months and 31%, for PPX versus 8 months and 31% for paclitaxel. Disease control rates were 64% and 69% for PPX and paclitaxel, respectively. Time to progression was similar: 3.9 months for PPX/carboplatin versus 4.6 months for paclitaxel/carboplatin (p = 0.210). CONCLUSION: PPX/carboplatin failed to provide superior survival compared with paclitaxel/carboplatin in the first-line treatment of PS 2 patients with NSCLC, but the results with respect to progression-free survival and overall survival were comparable and the PPX regimen was more convenient. © 2008International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.