Bottom-up modelling of energy demand and technical energy savings potential in the Irish residential sector

The International Energy Agency has repeatedly identified increased end-use energy efficiency as the quickest, least costly method of green house gas mitigation, most recently in the 2012 World Energy Outlook, and urges all governing bodies to increase efforts to promote energy efficiency policies and technologies. The residential sector is recognised as a major potential source of cost effective energy efficiency gains. Within the EU this relative importance can be seen from a review of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAP) submitted by member states, which in all cases place a large emphasis on the residential sector. This is particularly true for Ireland whose residential sector has historically had higher energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the EU average and whose first NEEAP targeted 44% of the energy savings to be achieved in 2020 from this sector. This thesis develops a bottom-up engineering archetype modelling approach to analyse the Irish residential sector and to estimate the technical energy savings potential of a number of policy measures. First, a model of space and water heating energy demand for new dwellings is built and used to estimate the technical energy savings potential due to the introduction of the 2008 and 2010 changes to part L of the building regulations governing energy efficiency in new dwellings. Next, the author makes use of a valuable new dataset of Building Energy Rating (BER) survey results to first characterise the highly heterogeneous stock of existing dwellings, and then to estimate the technical energy savings potential of an ambitious national retrofit programme targeting up to 1 million residential dwellings. This thesis also presents work carried out by the author as part of a collaboration to produce a bottom-up, multi-sector LEAP model for Ireland. Overall this work highlights the challenges faced in successfully implementing both sets of policy measures. It points to the wide potential range of final savings possible from particular policy measures and the resulting high degree of uncertainty as to whether particular targets will be met and identifies the key factors on which the success of these policies will depend. It makes recommendations on further modelling work and on the improvements necessary in the data available to researchers and policy makers alike in order to develop increasingly sophisticated residential energy demand models and better inform policy.

Elicitation techniques for the evaluation of speech under stress: Towards a framework for use in a controlled environment

Existing work in Computer Science and Electronic Engineering demonstrates that Digital Signal Processing techniques can effectively identify the presence of stress in the speech signal. These techniques use datasets containing real or actual stress samples i.e. real-life stress such as 911 calls and so on. Studies that use simulated or laboratory-induced stress have been less successful and inconsistent. Pervasive, ubiquitous computing is increasingly moving towards voice-activated and voice-controlled systems and devices. Speech recognition and speaker identification algorithms will have to improve and take emotional speech into account. Modelling the influence of stress on speech and voice is of interest to researchers from many different disciplines including security, telecommunications, psychology, speech science, forensics and Human Computer Interaction (HCI). The aim of this work is to assess the impact of moderate stress on the speech signal. In order to do this, a dataset of laboratory-induced stress is required. While attempting to build this dataset it became apparent that reliably inducing measurable stress in a controlled environment, when speech is a requirement, is a challenging task. This work focuses on the use of a variety of stressors to elicit a stress response during tasks that involve speech content. Biosignal analysis (commercial Brain Computer Interfaces, eye tracking and skin resistance) is used to verify and quantify the stress response, if any. This thesis explains the basis of the author’s hypotheses on the elicitation of affectively-toned speech and presents the results of several studies carried out throughout the PhD research period. These results show that the elicitation of stress, particularly the induction of affectively-toned speech, is not a simple matter and that many modulating factors influence the stress response process. A model is proposed to reflect the author’s hypothesis on the emotional response pathways relating to the elicitation of stress with a required speech content. Finally the author provides guidelines and recommendations for future research on speech under stress. Further research paths are identified and a roadmap for future research in this area is defined.

The use of fault detection and diagnostics to reduce air handling unit energy consumption

The contribution of buildings towards total worldwide energy consumption in developed countries is between 20% and 40%. Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and more specifically Air Handling Units (AHUs) energy consumption accounts on average for 40% of a typical medical device manufacturing or pharmaceutical facility’s energy consumption. Studies have indicated that 20 – 30% energy savings are achievable by recommissioning HVAC systems, and more specifically AHU operations, to rectify faulty operation. Automated Fault Detection and Diagnosis (AFDD) is a process concerned with potentially partially or fully automating the commissioning process through the detection of faults. An expert system is a knowledge-based system, which employs Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods to replicate the knowledge of a human subject matter expert, in a particular field, such as engineering, medicine, finance and marketing, to name a few. This thesis details the research and development work undertaken in the development and testing of a new AFDD expert system for AHUs which can be installed in minimal set up time on a large cross section of AHU types in a building management system vendor neutral manner. Both simulated and extensive field testing was undertaken against a widely available and industry known expert set of rules known as the Air Handling Unit Performance Assessment Rules (APAR) (and a later more developed version known as APAR_extended) in order to prove its effectiveness. Specifically, in tests against a dataset of 52 simulated faults, this new AFDD expert system identified all 52 derived issues whereas the APAR ruleset identified just 10. In tests using actual field data from 5 operating AHUs in 4 manufacturing facilities, the newly developed AFDD expert system for AHUs was shown to identify four individual fault case categories that the APAR method did not, as well as showing improvements made in the area of fault diagnosis.

Urbanization effects on welfare and income diversification strategies of peri-urban farm households in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: An empirical analysis

Urban areas in many developing countries are expanding rapidly by incorporating nearby subsistence farming communities. This has a direct effect on the consumption and production behaviours of the farm households but empirical evidence is sparse. This thesis investigated the effects of rapid urbanization and the associated policies on welfare of subsistence farm households in peri-urban areas using a panel dataset from Tigray, Ethiopia. The study revealed a number of important issues emerging with the rapid urban expansion. Firstly, private asset holdings and consumption expenditure of farm households, that have been incorporated into urban administration, has decreased. Secondly, factors that influence the farm households’ welfare and vulnerability depend on the administration they belong to, urban or rural. Gender and literacy of the household head have significant roles for the urban farm households to fall back into and/or move out of poverty. However, livestock holding and share of farm income are the most important factors for rural households. Thirdly, the study discloses that farming continues to be important source of income and income diversification is the principal strategy. Participation in nonfarm employment is less for farm households in urban than rural areas. Adult labour, size of the local market and past experience in the nonfarm sector improves the likelihood of engaging in skilled nonfarm employment opportunities. But money, given as compensation for the land taken away, is not crucial for the household to engage in better paying nonfarm employments. Production behaviour of the better-off farm households is the same, regardless of the administration they belong to. However, the urban poor participate less in nonfarm employment compared to the rural poor. These findings signify the gradual development of urban-induced poverty in peri-urban areas. In the case of labour poor households, introducing urban safety net programmes could improve asset productivity and provide further protection.

Public evaluations of novel food technologies: a qualitative citizen-scientist deliberative discourse approach

This qualitative research expands understanding of how information about a range of Novel Food Technologies (NFTs) is used and assimilated, and the implications of this on the evolution of attitudes and acceptance. This work enhances theoretical and applied understanding of citizens’ evaluative processes around these technologies. The approach applied involved observations of interactive exchanges between citizens and information providers (i.e. food scientists), during which they discussed a specific technology. This flexible, yet structured, approach revealed how individuals construct meaning around information about specific NFTs. A rich dataset of 42 ‘deliberate discourse’ and 42 postdiscourse transcripts was collected. Data analysis encompassed three stages: an initial descriptive account of the complete dataset based on the top-down bottom-up (TDBU) model of attitude formation, followed by inductive and deductive thematic analysis across the selected technology groups. The hybrid thematic analysis undertaken identified a Conceptual Model, which represents a holistic perspective on the influences and associated features directing ‘sense-making’ and ultimate evaluations around the technology clusters. How individuals make sense of these technologies is shaped by: their beliefs, values and personal characteristics; their perceptions of power and control over the application of the technology; and, the assumed relevance of the technology and its applications within different contexts. These influences form the frame for the creation of sense-making around the technologies. Internal negotiations between these influences are evident and evaluations are based on the relative importance of each influence to the individual, which tend to contribute to attitude ambivalence and instability. The findings indicate the processes of forming and changing attitudes towards these technologies are: complex; dependent on characteristics of the individual, technology, application and product; and, impacted by the nature and forms of information provided. Challenges are faced in engaging with the public about these technologies, as levels of knowledge, understanding and interest vary.

Corporate Bond Market in the Transition Economy of Vietnam, 1990-2010

Corporate bond appeared early in 1992-1994 in Vietnamese capital markets. However, it is still not popular to both business sector and academic circle. This paper explores different dimensions of Vietnamese corporate bond market using a unique, and perhaps, most complete dataset. State not only intervenes in the bond markets with its powerful budget and policies but also competes directly with enterprises. The dominance of SOEs and large corporations also prevents SMEs from this debt financing vehicle. Whenever a convertible term is available, bondholders are more willing to accept lower fixed income payoff. But they would not likely stick to it. On one hand, prospective bondholders could value the holdings of equity when realized favorably ex ante. On the other hand, the applicable coupon rate for such bond could turn out negative inflationadjusted payoff when tight monetary policy is exercised and the corresponding equity holding turns out valueless, ex post. Given the weak primary market and virtually nonexistent secondary market, the corporate bond market in Vietnam reflects our perception of the relationship-based and rent-seeking behavior in the financial markets. For the corporate bonds to really work, they critically need a higher level of liquidity to become truly tradable financial assets.

Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Entorhinal cortex volume in older adults: reliability and validity considerations for three published measurement protocols.

Measuring the entorhinal cortex (ERC) is challenging due to lateral border discrimination from the perirhinal cortex. From a sample of 39 nondemented older adults who completed volumetric image scans and verbal memory indices, we examined reliability and validity concerns for three ERC protocols with different lateral boundary guidelines (i.e., Goncharova, Dickerson, Stoub, & deToledo-Morrell, 2001; Honeycutt et al., 1998; Insausti et al., 1998). We used three novice raters to assess inter-rater reliability on a subset of scans (216 total ERCs), with the entire dataset measured by one rater with strong intra-rater reliability on each technique (234 total ERCs). We found moderate to strong inter-rater reliability for two techniques with consistent ERC lateral boundary endpoints (Goncharova, Honeycutt), with negligible to moderate reliability for the technique requiring consideration of collateral sulcal depth (Insausti). Left ERC and story memory associations were moderate and positive for two techniques designed to exclude the perirhinal cortex (Insausti, Goncharova), with the Insausti technique continuing to explain 10% of memory score variance after additionally controlling for depression symptom severity. Right ERC-story memory associations were nonexistent after excluding an outlier. Researchers are encouraged to consider challenges of rater training for ERC techniques and how lateral boundary endpoints may impact structure-function associations.

Invasive fungal infections among organ transplant recipients: results of the Transplant-Associated Infection Surveillance Network (TRANSNET).

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal infections (IFIs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality among organ transplant recipients. Multicenter prospective surveillance data to determine disease burden and secular trends are lacking. METHODS: The Transplant-Associated Infection Surveillance Network (TRANSNET) is a consortium of 23 US transplant centers, including 15 that contributed to the organ transplant recipient dataset. We prospectively identified IFIs among organ transplant recipients from March, 2001 through March, 2006 at these sites. To explore trends, we calculated the 12-month cumulative incidence among 9 sequential cohorts. RESULTS: During the surveillance period, 1208 IFIs were identified among 1063 organ transplant recipients. The most common IFIs were invasive candidiasis (53%), invasive aspergillosis (19%), cryptococcosis (8%), non-Aspergillus molds (8%), endemic fungi (5%), and zygomycosis (2%). Median time to onset of candidiasis, aspergillosis, and cryptococcosis was 103, 184, and 575 days, respectively. Among a cohort of 16,808 patients who underwent transplantation between March 2001 and September 2005 and were followed through March 2006, a total of 729 IFIs were reported among 633 persons. One-year cumulative incidences of the first IFI were 11.6%, 8.6%, 4.7%, 4.0%, 3.4%, and 1.3% for small bowel, lung, liver, heart, pancreas, and kidney transplant recipients, respectively. One-year incidence was highest for invasive candidiasis (1.95%) and aspergillosis (0.65%). Trend analysis showed a slight increase in cumulative incidence from 2002 to 2005. CONCLUSIONS: We detected a slight increase in IFIs during the surveillance period. These data provide important insights into the timing and incidence of IFIs among organ transplant recipients, which can help to focus effective prevention and treatment strategies.

SplicerAV: a tool for mining microarray expression data for changes in RNA processing.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades more than fifty thousand unique clinical and biological samples have been assayed using the Affymetrix HG-U133 and HG-U95 GeneChip microarray platforms. This substantial repository has been used extensively to characterize changes in gene expression between biological samples, but has not been previously mined en masse for changes in mRNA processing. We explored the possibility of using HG-U133 microarray data to identify changes in alternative mRNA processing in several available archival datasets. RESULTS: Data from these and other gene expression microarrays can now be mined for changes in transcript isoform abundance using a program described here, SplicerAV. Using in vivo and in vitro breast cancer microarray datasets, SplicerAV was able to perform both gene and isoform specific expression profiling within the same microarray dataset. Our reanalysis of Affymetrix U133 plus 2.0 data generated by in vitro over-expression of HRAS, E2F3, beta-catenin (CTNNB1), SRC, and MYC identified several hundred oncogene-induced mRNA isoform changes, one of which recognized a previously unknown mechanism of EGFR family activation. Using clinical data, SplicerAV predicted 241 isoform changes between low and high grade breast tumors; with changes enriched among genes coding for guanyl-nucleotide exchange factors, metalloprotease inhibitors, and mRNA processing factors. Isoform changes in 15 genes were associated with aggressive cancer across the three breast cancer datasets. CONCLUSIONS: Using SplicerAV, we identified several hundred previously uncharacterized isoform changes induced by in vitro oncogene over-expression and revealed a previously unknown mechanism of EGFR activation in human mammary epithelial cells. We analyzed Affymetrix GeneChip data from over 400 human breast tumors in three independent studies, making this the largest clinical dataset analyzed for en masse changes in alternative mRNA processing. The capacity to detect RNA isoform changes in archival microarray data using SplicerAV allowed us to carry out the first analysis of isoform specific mRNA changes directly associated with cancer survival.

Detecting separate time scales in genetic expression data.

BACKGROUND: Biological processes occur on a vast range of time scales, and many of them occur concurrently. As a result, system-wide measurements of gene expression have the potential to capture many of these processes simultaneously. The challenge however, is to separate these processes and time scales in the data. In many cases the number of processes and their time scales is unknown. This issue is particularly relevant to developmental biologists, who are interested in processes such as growth, segmentation and differentiation, which can all take place simultaneously, but on different time scales. RESULTS: We introduce a flexible and statistically rigorous method for detecting different time scales in time-series gene expression data, by identifying expression patterns that are temporally shifted between replicate datasets. We apply our approach to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell-cycle dataset and an Arabidopsis thaliana root developmental dataset. In both datasets our method successfully detects processes operating on several different time scales. Furthermore we show that many of these time scales can be associated with particular biological functions. CONCLUSIONS: The spatiotemporal modules identified by our method suggest the presence of multiple biological processes, acting at distinct time scales in both the Arabidopsis root and yeast. Using similar large-scale expression datasets, the identification of biological processes acting at multiple time scales in many organisms is now possible.

Latent factor analysis to discover pathway-associated putative segmental aneuploidies in human cancers.

Tumor microenvironmental stresses, such as hypoxia and lactic acidosis, play important roles in tumor progression. Although gene signatures reflecting the influence of these stresses are powerful approaches to link expression with phenotypes, they do not fully reflect the complexity of human cancers. Here, we describe the use of latent factor models to further dissect the stress gene signatures in a breast cancer expression dataset. The genes in these latent factors are coordinately expressed in tumors and depict distinct, interacting components of the biological processes. The genes in several latent factors are highly enriched in chromosomal locations. When these factors are analyzed in independent datasets with gene expression and array CGH data, the expression values of these factors are highly correlated with copy number alterations (CNAs) of the corresponding BAC clones in both the cell lines and tumors. Therefore, variation in the expression of these pathway-associated factors is at least partially caused by variation in gene dosage and CNAs among breast cancers. We have also found the expression of two latent factors without any chromosomal enrichment is highly associated with 12q CNA, likely an instance of "trans"-variations in which CNA leads to the variations in gene expression outside of the CNA region. In addition, we have found that factor 26 (1q CNA) is negatively correlated with HIF-1alpha protein and hypoxia pathways in breast tumors and cell lines. This agrees with, and for the first time links, known good prognosis associated with both a low hypoxia signature and the presence of CNA in this region. Taken together, these results suggest the possibility that tumor segmental aneuploidy makes significant contributions to variation in the lactic acidosis/hypoxia gene signatures in human cancers and demonstrate that latent factor analysis is a powerful means to uncover such a linkage.

Genetic signatures in the envelope glycoproteins of HIV-1 that associate with broadly neutralizing antibodies.

A steady increase in knowledge of the molecular and antigenic structure of the gp120 and gp41 HIV-1 envelope glycoproteins (Env) is yielding important new insights for vaccine design, but it has been difficult to translate this information to an immunogen that elicits broadly neutralizing antibodies. To help bridge this gap, we used phylogenetically corrected statistical methods to identify amino acid signature patterns in Envs derived from people who have made potently neutralizing antibodies, with the hypothesis that these Envs may share common features that would be useful for incorporation in a vaccine immunogen. Before attempting this, essentially as a control, we explored the utility of our computational methods for defining signatures of complex neutralization phenotypes by analyzing Env sequences from 251 clonal viruses that were differentially sensitive to neutralization by the well-characterized gp120-specific monoclonal antibody, b12. We identified ten b12-neutralization signatures, including seven either in the b12-binding surface of gp120 or in the V2 region of gp120 that have been previously shown to impact b12 sensitivity. A simple algorithm based on the b12 signature pattern was predictive of b12 sensitivity/resistance in an additional blinded panel of 57 viruses. Upon obtaining these reassuring outcomes, we went on to apply these same computational methods to define signature patterns in Env from HIV-1 infected individuals who had potent, broadly neutralizing responses. We analyzed a checkerboard-style neutralization dataset with sera from 69 HIV-1-infected individuals tested against a panel of 25 different Envs. Distinct clusters of sera with high and low neutralization potencies were identified. Six signature positions in Env sequences obtained from the 69 samples were found to be strongly associated with either the high or low potency responses. Five sites were in the CD4-induced coreceptor binding site of gp120, suggesting an important role for this region in the elicitation of broadly neutralizing antibody responses against HIV-1.

An integrated approach to the prediction of chemotherapeutic response in patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A major challenge in oncology is the selection of the most effective chemotherapeutic agents for individual patients, while the administration of ineffective chemotherapy increases mortality and decreases quality of life in cancer patients. This emphasizes the need to evaluate every patient's probability of responding to each chemotherapeutic agent and limiting the agents used to those most likely to be effective. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using gene expression data on the NCI-60 and corresponding drug sensitivity, mRNA and microRNA profiles were developed representing sensitivity to individual chemotherapeutic agents. The mRNA signatures were tested in an independent cohort of 133 breast cancer patients treated with the TFAC (paclitaxel, 5-fluorouracil, adriamycin, and cyclophosphamide) chemotherapy regimen. To further dissect the biology of resistance, we applied signatures of oncogenic pathway activation and performed hierarchical clustering. We then used mRNA signatures of chemotherapy sensitivity to identify alternative therapeutics for patients resistant to TFAC. Profiles from mRNA and microRNA expression data represent distinct biologic mechanisms of resistance to common cytotoxic agents. The individual mRNA signatures were validated in an independent dataset of breast tumors (P = 0.002, NPV = 82%). When the accuracy of the signatures was analyzed based on molecular variables, the predictive ability was found to be greater in basal-like than non basal-like patients (P = 0.03 and P = 0.06). Samples from patients with co-activated Myc and E2F represented the cohort with the lowest percentage (8%) of responders. Using mRNA signatures of sensitivity to other cytotoxic agents, we predict that TFAC non-responders are more likely to be sensitive to docetaxel (P = 0.04), representing a viable alternative therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the optimal strategy for chemotherapy sensitivity prediction integrates molecular variables such as ER and HER2 status with corresponding microRNA and mRNA expression profiles. Importantly, we also present evidence to support the concept that analysis of molecular variables can present a rational strategy to identifying alternative therapeutic opportunities.

Comparison of pattern detection methods in microarray time series of the segmentation clock.

While genome-wide gene expression data are generated at an increasing rate, the repertoire of approaches for pattern discovery in these data is still limited. Identifying subtle patterns of interest in large amounts of data (tens of thousands of profiles) associated with a certain level of noise remains a challenge. A microarray time series was recently generated to study the transcriptional program of the mouse segmentation clock, a biological oscillator associated with the periodic formation of the segments of the body axis. A method related to Fourier analysis, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, was used to detect periodic profiles in the dataset, leading to the identification of a novel set of cyclic genes associated with the segmentation clock. Here, we applied to the same microarray time series dataset four distinct mathematical methods to identify significant patterns in gene expression profiles. These methods are called: Phase consistency, Address reduction, Cyclohedron test and Stable persistence, and are based on different conceptual frameworks that are either hypothesis- or data-driven. Some of the methods, unlike Fourier transforms, are not dependent on the assumption of periodicity of the pattern of interest. Remarkably, these methods identified blindly the expression profiles of known cyclic genes as the most significant patterns in the dataset. Many candidate genes predicted by more than one approach appeared to be true positive cyclic genes and will be of particular interest for future research. In addition, these methods predicted novel candidate cyclic genes that were consistent with previous biological knowledge and experimental validation in mouse embryos. Our results demonstrate the utility of these novel pattern detection strategies, notably for detection of periodic profiles, and suggest that combining several distinct mathematical approaches to analyze microarray datasets is a valuable strategy for identifying genes that exhibit novel, interesting transcriptional patterns.