Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

SUCLG2 identified as both a determinator of CSF Aβ1-42 levels and an attenuator of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease.

Cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-beta 1-42 (Aβ1-42) and phosphorylated Tau at position 181 (pTau181) are biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We performed an analysis and meta-analysis of genome-wide association study data on Aβ1-42 and pTau181 in AD dementia patients followed by independent replication. An association was found between Aβ1-42 level and a single-nucleotide polymorphism in SUCLG2 (rs62256378) (P = 2.5×10(-12)). An interaction between APOE genotype and rs62256378 was detected (P = 9.5 × 10(-5)), with the strongest effect being observed in APOE-ε4 noncarriers. Clinically, rs62256378 was associated with rate of cognitive decline in AD dementia patients (P = 3.1 × 10(-3)). Functional microglia experiments showed that SUCLG2 was involved in clearance of Aβ1-42.

Role of retroviral restriction factors in the interferon-α-mediated suppression of HIV-1 in vivo.

The antiviral potency of the cytokine IFN-α has been long appreciated but remains poorly understood. A number of studies have suggested that induction of the apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide 3 (APOBEC3) and bone marrow stromal cell antigen 2 (BST-2/tetherin/CD317) retroviral restriction factors underlies the IFN-α-mediated suppression of HIV-1 replication in vitro. We sought to characterize the as-yet-undefined relationship between IFN-α treatment, retroviral restriction factors, and HIV-1 in vivo. APOBEC3G, APOBEC3F, and BST-2 expression levels were measured in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected, antiretroviral therapy-naïve individuals before, during, and after pegylated IFN-α/ribavirin (IFN-α/riba) combination therapy. IFN-α/riba therapy decreased HIV-1 viral load by -0.921 (±0.858) log(10) copies/mL in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients. APOBEC3G/3F and BST-2 mRNA expression was significantly elevated during IFN-α/riba treatment in patient-derived CD4+ T cells (P < 0.04 and P < 0.008, paired Wilcoxon), and extent of BST-2 induction was correlated with reduction in HIV-1 viral load during treatment (P < 0.05, Pearson's r). APOBEC3 induction during treatment was correlated with degree of viral hypermutation (P < 0.03, Spearman's ρ), and evolution of the HIV-1 accessory protein viral protein U (Vpu) during IFN-α/riba treatment was suggestive of increased BST-2-mediated selection pressure. These data suggest that host restriction factors play a critical role in the antiretroviral capacity of IFN-α in vivo, and warrant investigation into therapeutic strategies that specifically enhance the expression of these intrinsic immune factors in HIV-1-infected individuals.

Impact of low-level viremia on clinical and virological outcomes in treated HIV-1-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: The goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality by suppressing HIV replication. The prognostic value of persistent low-level viremia (LLV), particularly for clinical outcomes, is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Assess the association of different levels of LLV with virological failure, AIDS event, and death among HIV-infected patients receiving combination ART. METHODS: We analyzed data from 18 cohorts in Europe and North America, contributing to the ART Cohort Collaboration. Eligible patients achieved viral load below 50 copies/ml within 3-9 months after ART initiation. LLV50-199 was defined as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 199 copies/ml and LLV200-499 as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 499 copies/ml, with at least one between 200 and 499 copies/ml. We used Cox models to estimate the association of LLV with virological failure (two consecutive viral loads at least 500 copies/ml or one viral load at least 500 copies/ml, followed by a modification of ART) and AIDS event/death. RESULTS: Among 17 902 patients, 624 (3.5%) experienced LLV50-199 and 482 (2.7%) LLV200-499. Median follow-up was 2.3 and 3.1 years for virological and clinical outcomes, respectively. There were 1903 virological failure, 532 AIDS events and 480 deaths. LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.05-5.17]. LLV50-199 was weakly associated with virological failure (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 0.96-2.00). LLV50-199 and LLV200-499 were not associated with AIDS event/death (aHR 1.19, 95% CI 0.78-1.82; and aHR 1.11, 95% CI 0.72-1.71, respectively). CONCLUSION: LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure, but not with AIDS event/death. Our results support the US guidelines, which define virological failure as a confirmed viral load above 200 copies/ml.

Cross-section data, disequilibrium situations and estimated coefficients: evidence from car ownership demand

The objective of this paper is to analyse to what extent the use of cross-section data will distort the estimated elasticities for car ownership demand when the observed variables do not correspond to a state equilibrium for some individuals in the sample. Our proposal consists of approximating the equilibrium values of the observed variables by constructing a pseudo-panel data set which entails averaging individuals observed at different points of time into cohorts. The results show that individual and aggregate data lead to almost the same value for income elasticity, whereas with respect to working adult elasticity the similarity is less pronounced.

Identification of a novel determinant for membrane association in hepatitis C virus nonstructural protein 4B.

Nonstructural protein 4B (NS4B) plays an essential role in the formation of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) replication complex. It is a relatively poorly characterized integral membrane protein predicted to comprise four transmembrane segments in its central portion. Here, we describe a novel determinant for membrane association represented by amino acids (aa) 40 to 69 in the N-terminal portion of NS4B. This segment was sufficient to target and tightly anchor the green fluorescent protein to cellular membranes, as assessed by fluorescence microscopy as well as membrane extraction and flotation analyses. Circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance structural analyses showed that this segment comprises an amphipathic alpha-helix extending from aa 42 to 66. Attenuated total reflection infrared spectroscopy and glycosylation acceptor site tagging revealed that this amphipathic alpha-helix has the potential to traverse the phospholipid bilayer as a transmembrane segment, likely upon oligomerization. Alanine substitution of the fully conserved aromatic residues on the hydrophobic helix side abrogated membrane association of the segment comprising aa 40 to 69 and disrupted the formation of a functional replication complex. These results provide the first atomic resolution structure of an essential membrane-associated determinant of HCV NS4B.

Are there two species of Pygmy Shrews (Sorex)? Revisiting the question using DNA sequence data

Pygmy Shrews in North America have variously been considered to be one species (Sorex hoyi) or two species (S. hoyi and S. thompsoni). Currently, only S. hoyi is recognized. In this study, we examine mitochondrial DNA sequence data for the cytochrome b gene to evaluate the level of differentiation and phylogeographic relationships among eleven samples of Pygmy Shrews from across Canada. Pygmy Shrews from eastern Canada (i.e., Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island) are distinct from Pygmy Shrews from western Canada (Alberta, Yukon) and Alaska. The average level of sequence divergence between these clades (3.3%) falls within the range of values for other recognized pairs of sister species of shrews. A molecular clock based on third position transversion substitutions suggests that these two lineages diverged between 0.44 and 1.67 million years ago. These molecular phylogenetic data. combined with a reinterpretation of previously published morphological data, are suggestive of separate species status for S. hoyi and S. thompsoni as has been previously argued by others. Further analysis of specimens from geographically intermediate areas (e.g., Manitoba. northern Ontario) is required to determine if there is secondary contact and/or introgression between these two putative species.

Analysing the impact of public capital stock using the NEG wage equation: a panel data approach

This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1984-2004, a period which is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that time. The underlying model used for the data analysis is based on the wage equation, which is one of a handful of simultaneous equations which when satisfied correspond to the short-run equilibrium of New Economic Geography theory. This is estimated using a spatial panel model with fixed time and province effects, so that unmodelled space and time constant sources of heterogeneity are eliminated. The model assumes that productivity depends on the level of educational attainment and the public capital stock endowment of each province. The results show that although changes in productivity are positively associated with changes in public investment within the same province, there is a negative relationship between productivity changes and changes in public investment in other regions.

Body mass index, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption and cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx: modeling odds ratios in pooled case-control data.

Odds ratios for head and neck cancer increase with greater cigarette and alcohol use and lower body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height(2) (m(2))). Using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium, the authors conducted a formal analysis of BMI as a modifier of smoking- and alcohol-related effects. Analysis of never and current smokers included 6,333 cases, while analysis of never drinkers and consumers of < or =10 drinks/day included 8,452 cases. There were 8,000 or more controls, depending on the analysis. Odds ratios for all sites increased with lower BMI, greater smoking, and greater drinking. In polytomous regression, odds ratios for BMI (P = 0.65), smoking (P = 0.52), and drinking (P = 0.73) were homogeneous for oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers. Odds ratios for BMI and drinking were greater for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer (P < 0.01), while smoking odds ratios were greater for laryngeal cancer (P < 0.01). Lower BMI enhanced smoking- and drinking-related odds ratios for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer (P < 0.01), while BMI did not modify smoking and drinking odds ratios for laryngeal cancer. The increased odds ratios for all sites with low BMI may suggest related carcinogenic mechanisms; however, BMI modification of smoking and drinking odds ratios for cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx but not larynx cancer suggests additional factors specific to oral cavity/pharynx cancer.

Two different 3D biogeochemical models for the NW mediterranean sea: validation with Meris data and intercomparison

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of New South Wales from February to June the 2007. Two different biogeochemical models are coupled to a three dimensional configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Ahumada and Cruzado, 2007). The first biogeochemical model (BLANES) is the three-dimensional version of the model described by Bahamon and Cruzado (2003) and computes the nitrogen fluxes through six compartments using semi-empirical descriptions of biological processes. The second biogeochemical model (BIOMEC) is the biomechanical NPZD model described in Baird et al. (2004), which uses a combination of physiological and physical descriptions to quantify the rates of planktonic interactions. Physical descriptions include, for example, the diffusion of nutrients to phytoplankton cells and the encounter rate of predators and prey. The link between physical and biogeochemical processes in both models is expressed by the advection-diffusion of the non-conservative tracers. The similarities in the mathematical formulation of the biogeochemical processes in the two models are exploited to determine the parameter set for the biomechanical model that best fits the parameter set used in the first model. Three years of integration have been carried out for each model to reach the so called perpetual year run for biogeochemical conditions. Outputs from both models are averaged monthly and then compared to remote sensing images obtained from sensor MERIS for chlorophyll.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

The Role of Institutions in Cross-Section Income and Panel Data Growth Models: A Deeper Investigation on the Weakness and Proliferation of Instruments

This paper investigates the role of institutions in determining per capita income levels and growth. It contributes to the empirical literature by using different variables as proxies for institutions and by developing a deeper analysis of the issues arising from the use of weak and too many instruments in per capita income and growth regressions. The cross-section estimation suggests that institutions seem to matter, regardless if they are the only explanatory variable or are combined with geographical and integration variables, although most models suffer from the issue of weak instruments. The results from the growth models provides some interesting results: there is mixed evidence on the role of institutions and such evidence is more likely to be associated with law and order and investment profile; government spending is an important policy variable; collapsing the number of instruments results in fewer significant coefficients for institutions.

International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data

We present a unique empirical analysis of the properties of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve using an international dataset of aggregate and disaggregate sectoral in ation. Our results from panel time-series estimation clearly indicate that sectoral heterogeneity has important consequences for aggregate in ation behaviour. Heterogeneity helps to explain the overestimation of in ation persistence and underestimation of the role of marginal costs in empirical investigations of the NKPC that use aggregate data. We nd that combining disaggregate information with heterogeneous-consistent estimation techniques helps to reconcile, to a large extent, the NKPC with the data.