Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

Epidemiological aspects of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2007 and 2009

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an expanding zoonosis in Brazil and is becoming urbanized in several Brazilian regions. This study aims to describe the epidemiological features of human and canine VL in the municipality of Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, by focusing on their spatial distribution. METHODS: Data concerning human cases and reactive dogs for VL from 2007 to 2009 were obtained from the Information System for Disease Notification (SINAN) and from reports of the local Centro de Controle de Zoonoses (CCZ), respectively. The addresses of human and canine cases have been georeferenced and localized in thematic maps, allowing their spatial visualization as well as the identification of areas at risk of VL transmission. RESULTS: Ninety-five cases of human VL were reported in the period. The 0-9-year-old age group (48.4%) was the most affected, within which the majority consisted of male patients (64%). Of the samples collected for the canine serological survey, 2,919 (6.3%) were reactive to VL. The spatial localization of these cases shows that the disease was scattered in the urban area of the municipality. Areas showing a higher dissemination risk were concentrated in the central, northwestern, and southern regions of the city. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the areas most at risk in urban Montes Claros may help guide actions toward local epidemiological vigilance and control.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Walking Through the Revolution: A Spatial Reading of Literary Echoes

This paper presents an embryo of a literary guide on the Carnation Revolution to be explored for educational historical excursions other than leisure and tourism. We propose a historical trail through the centre of Lisbon, city of the Carnation Revolution, called Walk through the Revolution. The trail aims to reinforce collective memory about the major events that occurred in the early moments leading to the coup. The trail is made up by nine places of rememberance, for which literary excerpts are suggested and which are supported by a digital research procedure. A set of seven fixed and observer-independent categories are used to analyse the literary contents of 23 literary works published up to 2013. These literary works refer to events that happened between the eve of April 25 and May 1, 1974. At the same time, literary descriptions are explored using a spatial approach in order to define the literary geography of the most iconic military actions and popular demonstrations that occurred in Lisbon and the surroundings. The literary geography and the cartography of the historical events are then compared. Data analysis and visualization benefit from the use of standardised and quantitative methods, including basic statistics and geographic information systems.

Relationship between national culture, democracy and environmental performance: A panel data analysis

This paper demonstrates the significance of culture in examining the relationshipbetween democratic capital and environmental performance.The aim is to examine the relationship among scores on the Environmental Performance Index and the two dimensions of cross cultural variation suggested by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Significantional interrelationships among democracy, cultural and environmental sustaintability measures could be found, following the regression results. Firstly, higher levels of democratic capital stock are associated with better environmental performance. Secondly importance to distinguish between cultural groups could be confirmed.

A method to correct the flow distortion of offshore wind data using CFD simulation and experimental wind tunnel tests

The assessment of wind energy resource for the development of deep offshore wind plants requires the use of every possible source of data and, in many cases, includes data gathered at meteorological stations installed at islands, islets or even oil platforms—all structures that interfere with, and change, the flow characteristics. This work aims to contribute to the evaluation of such changes in the flow by developing a correction methodology and applying it to the case of Berlenga island, Portugal. The study is performed using computational fluid dynamic simulations (CFD) validated by wind tunnel tests. In order to simulate the incoming offshore flow with CFD models a wind profile, unknown a priori, was established using observations from two coastal wind stations and a power law wind profile was fitted to the existing data (a=0.165). The results show that the resulting horizontal wind speed at 80 m above sea level is 16% lower than the wind speed at 80 m above the island for the dominant wind direction sector.

Injuries caused by aquatic animals in Brazil: an analysis of the data present in the information system for notifiable diseases

AbstractINTRODUCTION:We present a review of injuries in humans caused by aquatic animals in Brazil using the Information System for Notifiable Diseases [ Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN)] database.METHODS:A descriptive and retrospective epidemiological study was conducted from 2007 to 2013.RESULTS:A total of 4,118 accidents were recorded. Of these accidents, 88.7% (3,651) were caused by venomous species, and 11.3% (467) were caused by poisonous, traumatic or unidentified aquatic animals. Most of the events were injuries by stingrays (69%) and jellyfish (13.1%). The North region was responsible for the majority of reports (66.2%), with a significant emphasis on accidents caused by freshwater stingrays (92.2% or 2,317 cases). In the South region, the region with the second highest number of records (15.7%), jellyfish caused the majority of accidents (83.7% or 452 cases). The Northeastern region, with 12.5% of the records, was notable because almost all accidents were caused by toadfish (95.6% or 174 cases).CONCLUSIONS:Although a comparison of different databases has not been performed, the data presented in this study, compared to local and regional surveys, raises the hypothesis of underreporting of accidents. As the SINAN is the official system for the notification of accidents by venomous animals in Brazil, it is imperative that its operation be reviewed and improved, given that effective measures to prevent accidents by venomous animals depend on a reliable database and the ability to accurately report the true conditions.

Description of continuous data using bar graphs: a misleading approach

INTRODUCTION:With the ease provided by current computational programs, medical and scientific journals use bar graphs to describe continuous data.METHODS:This manuscript discusses the inadequacy of bars graphs to present continuous data.RESULTS:Simulated data show that box plots and dot plots are more-feasible tools to describe continuous data.CONCLUSIONS:These plots are preferred to represent continuous variables since they effectively describe the range, shape, and variability of observations and clearly identify outliers. By contrast, bar graphs address only measures of central tendency. Bar graphs should be used only to describe qualitative data.

Malaria epidemiology in the State of Piauí, Northeastern Brazil: a retrospective study with secondary data

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Malaria is not considered endemic in State of Piauí. METHODS Malaria epidemiology was examined using surveillance data. RESULTS: During 2002-2013, of the 484 cases of malaria, 217 were classified as probably acquired in Piauí, most frequently in the Campo Largo, Buriti dos Lopes, and Luzilândia municipalities, and 267 were considered probably imported, from the States of Pará, Maranhão, Amazonas, Roraima, and Rondônia. Probably-imported cases occurred throughout the year, while 80.2% of the probably-acquired cases occurred in April-August, peaking at the end of the rainy season. CONCLUSIONS Malaria surveillance should be intensified. Further ecoepidemiological and entomological studies are needed.

Pressure sores among malnourished necropsied adults - preliminary data

Pressure sores are common among bedridden, elderly, or malnourished patients, and may occur in terminal ill patients because of impaired mobility, fecal or urinary incontinence, and decreased healing capacity. The aim of this study was to compare frequency of pressure sores between malnourished and non-malnourished necropsied adults. METHOD: All (n = 201) adults (age ³ 18 years) autopsied between 1986 and 1996 at the Teaching Hospital of Triangulo Mineiro Medical School (Uberaba) were eligible for the study. Gender, race, weight, height and main diagnoses were recorded. Ninety-six cases were excluded because of probable body water retention (congestive heart failure, hepatic insufficiency, nephrotic syndrome) or pressure sores secondary to peripheral vascular ischemia. Body mass index (BMI) was used to define malnourished (BMI < 18.5 kg/m²) and non-malnourished (BMI > 18.5kg/m²) groups. RESULTS: Except for weight (42.5kg; range: 28-57 vs. 60; 36-134.5kg) and BMI (16.9; range: 12.4-18.5 vs. 22.7; range: 18.5-54.6kg/m²), respectively, there were no statistical differences among 43 malnourished and 62 non-malnourished cases in relation to age (54.9 ± 20.4 vs. 52.9 ± 17.9 years), percentage of white persons (74.4 vs. 64.5%), male gender (76.7 vs. 69.3%) and main diagnoses. Five malnourished (11.6%) and 7 (11.5%) non-malnourished cases had pressure sores (p=0.89). CONCLUSION: Pressure sores were equally common findings in necropsied persons with protein-energy malnutrition, as assessed by body mass index.

Premature thelarche: identification of clinical and laboratory data for the diagnosis of precocious puberty

PURPOSE: Two groups of girls with premature breast development were studied retrospectively. We tried to identify clinical, radiological, and hormonal parameters that could distinguish between a benign, nonprogressive premature thelarche and a true precocious puberty. METHODS: The clinical outcome of 88 girls with breast enlargement before 6.1 years of age was analyzed. Taking into account the progression of their sexual maturation, we allocated the children into 2 groups: "Isolated Premature Thelarche" (n = 63) and "Precocious Puberty" (n = 25) groups. Chronological and bone ages, height and growth velocity centiles, computerized tomography of hypothalamus-pituitary area, pelvic ultrasonography, gonadotropin response to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation as well as basal levels of luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, estradiol, and prolactin were studied in both groups. Statistical analysis were performed using the Student t test to compare the sample means. Fisher's exact test and chi² test were used to analyze the nonparametric variables. RESULTS: Isolated premature thelarche most frequently affected girls younger than 2 years who presented exaggerated follicle-stimulating hormone response to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation test. The precocious puberty group had higher initial stature, accelerated growth rate and bone age, increased uterine and ovarian volumes, high spontaneous luteinizing hormone levels by immunofluorimetric assay, as well as a high luteinizing hormone response and peak luteinizing hormone/follicle-stimulating hormone ratio after luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation. CONCLUSION: At initial presentation, girls who undergo true precocious puberty present advanced bone age, increased uterine and ovarian volumes in addition to breast enlargement, as well as an luteinizing hormone-predominant response after a luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation test.

Análise da eficiência na gestão do risco de fornecedores: aplicação de um modelo Data Envelopment Analysis

Atualmente a tendência dos negócios leva a cadeias de abastecimento complexas e dinâmicas, que consequentemente levanta questões relativas ao aumento do risco de fornecimento em torno dessas mesmas cadeias; pelo que existe cada vez mais uma necessidade dos gestores identificarem e gerirem o risco de um modo mais diversificado. Associado às cadeias de abastecimento estão os fornecedores. A maioria dos riscos relativos a estes, está incluída no contexto de risco de fornecimento, resultando assim numa problemática de seleção e avaliação de fornecedores. Riscos como baixa qualidade, atrasos na entrega, falha ou interrupção de fornecimento, são exemplos de fatores de risco associados. Neste contexto, um dos maiores desafios para as organizações atualmente é trabalharem com os melhores fornecedores do mercado, procurando garantir a estabilidade em termos de fornecimento, com as melhores condições possíveis, quer a nível de preço, qualidade, entre outros, exigindo cada vez mais relações comerciais eficientes com os fornecedores. Assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo o desenvolvimento de um modelo baseado no método Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), que permite às organizações avaliar e melhorar a eficiência das suas relações comerciais na gestão de risco de fornecimento nas suas cadeias de abastecimento. Como tal, o modelo proposto é divido em dois casos, que diferem pela origem da obtenção dos seus valores. Ou seja, num dos casos é aplicada uma avaliação externa à organização, e no outro é utilizada uma avaliação interna, o que permitirá discutir a sua utilização. Segundo o modelo proposto verificou-se que a eficiência média foi de 93% no caso I e 94% no caso II. Concluindo-se ainda ambos os casos necessitam de melhorias nos fornecimentos ao nível de: Qualidade, Logística e Tecnologia, ou seja, melhorar a qualidade dos serviços prestados, diminuir os seus prazos de execução dos serviços/fornecimento de material e aumento do conhecimento tecnológico.

Grande panorama de Lisboa em azulejo: Novos contributos para a fixação da data, encomenda e autoria

O Grande panorama de Lisboa, obra maior da azulejaria nacional e hoje à guarda do Museu Nacional do Azulejo, pertenceu outrora a um palácio situado na freguesia de Santiago, propriedade da família Ferreira de Macedo no final do século XVII. A investigação apresentada procura esclarecer alguns aspectos relacionados com a execução do grandioso painel e com o perfil sócio-cultural do encomendador. À luz de novos elementos documentais, o artigo discute ainda a questão da autoria do painel, dada há muito ao pintor barroco Gabriel del Barco.

Um modelo Data Envelopment Analysis para avaliação da eficiência dos terminais de contentores do grupo TERTIR

O transporte marítimo tem vindo a adquirir uma considerável importância na economia mundial desde o século XV. O transporte marítimo é visto como um dos meios de transporte mais viáveis, que engloba um largo número de destinos no mundo e representa, para uma determinada distância a percorrer, o menor custo por tonelada. É, também, comparativamente com o transporte aéreo e rodoviário, o meio de transporte menos poluente, tornando-o, assim, uma alternativa “amiga do ambiente”. Em particular, o transporte via contentores tem vindo a ser cada vez mais utilizado devido às suas inúmeras vantagens. O contentor permite o transporte de qualquer tipo de mercadoria em boas condições de acondicionamento e permitiu otimizar as operações efetuadas através da redução de tempo de trabalho, custos e espaço. Ademais, com a globalização, a evolução do mercado, a construção de navios de maiores dimensões e a maior tecnologia investida no setor, a competição entre os portos alcançou níveis que exigem uma maior eficiência de toda a estrutura portuária. Neste contexto, a presente dissertação visa avaliar a eficiência dos terminais de contentores do grupo TERTIR, nomeadamente os de Lisboa, Leixões e Setúbal, utilizando o método Data Envelopment Analaysis (DEA). De um modo geral, o método DEA avalia a capacidade dos terminais em converter inputs em outputs. Mais especificamente os inputs selecionados nesta dissertação dizem respeito às infraestruturas e equipamentos dos terminais em estudo, e o output considera a carga movimentada por cada terminal, sendo neste caso representada pelo número de TEUs movimentados. O modelo proposto é aplicado a um conjunto de 30 terminais de contentores Europeus de 6 países diferentes, nomeadamente, Alemanha, Bélgica, Espanha, França, Holanda e Portugal. De um modo geral, os terminais TERTIR apresentam níveis de eficiência baixos quando comparados com outros terminais Europeus. Os resultados contribuem, também, para auxiliar o grupo TERTIR no debate de algumas questões atuais com as autoridades portuárias, nomeadamente no que se refere à descida dos tarifários praticados aos seus clientes e à enunciada construção do terminal de contentores do Barreiro.