892 resultados para DEMOGRAPHIC STOCHASTICITY


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This study investigates: –how travel and socio-demographic attributes act on workers’ mode choice decisions in Dhaka –whether Dhaka’s commuters would choose BRT for their work trip once implemented •Very limited research exists on users’ perceptions of BRT in developing countries’ megacities •We adopted a discrete choice modelling approach •As BRT has not yet been implemented in Dhaka, we collected Stated Choice (SC) survey data including a hypothetical BRT mode to understand factors important to workers’ mode choice decisions •We compare the impact of travel factors between Dhaka and cities of developed countries

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Purpose Musculoskeletal conditions can impair people’s ability to undertake physical activity as they age. The purpose of this qualitative study was to investigate perceived barriers and facilitators to undertaking physical activity reported by patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Patients and methods A questionnaire with open-ended items was administered to patients (n=217, 73.3% of 296 eligible) from three clinics providing ambulatory services for nonsurgical treatment of musculoskeletal disorders. The survey included questions to capture the clinical and demographic characteristics of the sample. It also comprised two open-ended questions requiring qualitative responses. The first asked the participant to describe factors that made physical activity more difficult, and the second asked which factors made it easier for them to be physically active. Participants’ responses to the two open-ended questions were read, coded, and thematically analyzed independently by two researchers, with a third researcher available to arbitrate any unresolved disagreement. Results The mean (standard deviation) age of participants was 53 (15) years; n=113 (52.1%) were male. A total of 112 (51.6%) participants reported having three or more health conditions; n=140 (64.5%) were classified as overweight or obese. Five overarching themes describing perceived barriers for undertaking physical activity were "health conditions", "time restrictions", "poor physical condition", "emotional, social, and psychological barriers", and "access to exercise opportunities". Perceived physical activity facilitators were also aligned under five themes, namely "improved health state", "social, emotional, and behavioral supports", "access to exercise environment", "opportunities for physical activities", and "time availability". Conclusion It was clear from the breadth of the data that meaningful supports and interventions must be multidimensional. They should have the capacity to address a variety of physical, functional, social, psychological, motivational, environmental, lifestyle, and other perceived barriers. It would appear that for such interventions to be effective, they should be flexible enough to address a variety of specific concerns.

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Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high blood pressure (BP) in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Mean systolic BP (SBP) estimates by age and sex were obtained from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey adult data. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for South Africa in 2000. Monte Carlo simulation modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa Subjects Adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and other cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results High BP was estimated to have caused 46 888 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 44 878 - 48 566) or 9% (95% uncertainty interval 8.6 - 9.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000, and 390 860 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 377 955 - 402 256) or 2.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.3 - 2.5%) in South Africa in 2000. Overall, 50% of stroke, 42% of IHD, 72% of hypertensive disease and 22% of other CVD burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high BP (systolic BP ≥ 115 mmHg). Conclusions High BP contributes to a considerable burden of CVD in South Africa and results indicate that there is considerable potential for health gain from implementing BP-lowering interventions that are known to be highly costeffective.

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Objective To estimate the magnitude and characteristics of the injury burden in South Africa within a global context. Methods The Actuarial Society of South Africa demographic and AIDS model (ASSA 2002) – calibrated to survey, census and adjusted vital registration data – was used to calculate the total number of deaths in 2000. Causes of death were determined from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System profile. Injury death rates and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease methodology. National years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by applying a ratio between YLLs and YLDs found in a local injury data source, the Cape Metropole Study. Mortality and disability-adjusted life years’ (DALYs) rates were compared with African and global estimates. Findings Interpersonal violence dominated the South African injury profile with age-standardized mortality rates at seven times the global rate. Injuries were the second-leading cause of loss of healthy life, accounting for 14.3% of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of injury in most regions of the world but South Africa has exceedingly high numbers – double the global rate. Conclusion Injuries are an important public health issue in South Africa. Social and economic determinants of violence, many a legacy of apartheid policies, must be addressed to reduce inequalities in society and build community cohesion. Multisectoral interventions to reduce traffic injuries are also needed. We highlight this heavy burden to stress the need for effective prevention programmes.

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Background: High levels of wealth inequality with improved health statistics in South Africa (SA) provide an important opportunity to investigate non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among the poor. Aims: This paper uses two distinct national data sets to contrast patterns of mortality in rich and poor areas and explore the associations between poverty, risk factors, health care and selected NCDs diseases in South African adults. Methods: Causes of premature mortality in 1996 experienced in the poorest magisterial districts are compared with those in the richest, using average household wealth to classify districts. Logistic and multinomial regression are used to investigate the association of a household asset index and selected chronic conditions, related risk factors and healthcare indicators using data from the 1998 South African Demographic and Health Survey. Results: NCDs accounted for 39% and 33% of premature mortality in rich and poor districts respectively. The household survey data showed that the risk factors hypertension and obesity increased with increasing wealth, while most of the lifestyle factors, such as light smoking, domestic exposure to ``smoky'' fuels and alcohol dependence were associated with poverty. Treatment status for hypertension and asthma was worse for poor people than for rich people. Conclusions: The study suggests that NCDs and lifestyle-related risk factors are prevalent among the poor in SA and treatment for chronic diseases is lacking for poor people. The observed increase in hypertension and obesity with wealth suggests that unless comprehensive health promotion strategies are implemented, there will be an unmanageable chronic disease epidemic with future socioeconomic development in SA.

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Purpose To determine the prescribed drug-utilisation pattern for six common chronic conditions in adult South Africans in a cross-sectional survey. Methods 13 826 randomly selected participants, 15 years and older, were surveyed by trained fieldworkers at their homes in 1998. Questionnaires included socio-demographic, chronic-disease and drug-use data. The prescribed drugs were recorded from participants' medication containers. The Anatomical Therapeutic Classification (ATC) code of the drugs for tuberculosis (TB), diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, other atherosclerosis-related conditions, such as heart conditions or cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), and asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), was recorded. The use of logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of those patients who used prescription medication for these six conditions. Results 18.4% of the women and 12.5% of the men used drugs for the six chronic conditions. Men used drugs most frequently for hypertension (50.9%) and asthma or chronic bronchitis (24.3%), while in women it was for hypertension (59.9%) and diabetes (17.5%). The logistic regression analyses showed that women, wealthier and older people, and those with medical insurance used these chronic-disease drugs more frequently compared to men, younger or poor people, or those without medical insurance. The African population group used these drugs less frequently than any other ethnic group. The inappropriate use of methyldopa was found for 14.8% of all antihypertensive drugs, while very few people used aspirin. Conclusions The methodology of this study provides a means of ascertaining the chronic-disease drug-utilisation pattern in national health surveys. The pattern described, suggests an inequitable use of chronic-disease drugs and inadequate use of some effective drugs to control the burden of chronic diseases in South Africa. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

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Objective To examine personal and social demographics, and rehabilitation discharge outcomes of dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees. Methods In total, 425 lower limb amputation inpatient rehabilitation admissions (335 individuals) from 2005 to 2011 were examined. Admission and discharge descriptive statistics (frequency, percentages) were calculated and compared by aetiology. Results Participants were male (74%), aged 65 years (s.d. 14), born in Australia (72%), had predominantly dysvascular aetiology (80%) and a median length of stay 48 days (interquartile range (IQR): 25–76). Following amputation, 56% received prostheses for mobility, 21% (n = 89) changed residence and 28% (n = 116) required community services. Dysvascular amputees were older (mean 67 years, s.d. 12 vs 54 years, s.d. 16; P < 0.001) and recorded lower functional independence measure – motor scores at admission (z = 3.61, P < 0.001) and discharge (z = 4.52, P < 0.001). More nonvascular amputees worked before amputation (43% vs 11%; P < 0.001), were prescribed a prosthesis by discharge (73% vs 52%; P < 0.001) and had a shorter length of stay (7 days, 95% confidence interval: –3 to 17), although this was not statistically significant. Conclusions Differences exist in social and demographic outcomes between dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees.

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Objectives: To assess socio-economic differences in three components of nutrition knowledge, i.e. knowledge of (i) the relationship between diet and disease, (ii) the nutrient content of foods and (iii) dietary guideline recommendations; furthermore, to determine if socio-economic differences in nutrition knowledge contribute to inequalities in food purchasing choices. Design: The cross-sectional study considered household food purchasing,nutrition knowledge, socio-economic and demographic information. Household food purchasing choices were summarised by three indices, based on self-reported purchasing of sixteen groceries, nineteen fruits and twenty-one vegetables. Socio-economic position (SEP) was measured by household income and education. Associations between SEP, nutrition knowledge and food purchasing were examined using general linear models adjusted for age, gender, household type and household size. Setting: Brisbane, Australia in 2000. Subjects: Main household food shoppers (n 1003, response rate 66?4 %), located in fifty small areas (Census Collectors Districts). Results: Shoppers in households of low SEP made food purchasing choices that were less consistent with dietary guideline recommendations: they were more likely to purchase grocery foods comparatively higher in salt, sugar and fat, and lower in fibre, and they purchased a narrower range of fruits and vegetables. Those of higher SEP had greater nutrition knowledge and this factor attenuated most associations between SEP and food purchasing choices. Among nutrition knowledge factors, knowledge of the relationship between diet and disease made the greatest and most consistent contribution to explaining socio-economic differences in food purchasing. Conclusions: Addressing inequalities in nutrition knowledge is likely to reduce socio-economic differences in compliance with dietary guidelines. Improving knowledge of the relationship between diet and disease appears to be a particularly relevant focus for health promotion aimed to reduce socio-economic differences in diet and related health inequalities.

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A sound understanding of travellers’ behavioural changes and adaptation when facing a natural disaster is a key factor in efficiently and effectively managing transport networks at such times. This study specifically investigates the importance of travel/traffic information and its impact on travel behaviour during natural disasters. Using the 2011 Brisbane flood as a case study, survey respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information before, during, and after the flood were modelled using random-effects ordered logit. A hysteresis phenomenon was observed: respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information increased during the flood, and although its perceived importance decreased after the flood, it did not return to the pre-flood level. Results also reveal that socio-demographic features (such as gender and age) have a significant impact on respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information. The roles of travel time and safety in a respondent’s trip planning are also significantly correlated to their perception of the importance of this information. The analysis further shows that during the flood, respondents generally thought that travel/traffic information was important, and adjusted their travel plans according to information received. When controlling for other factors, the estimated odds of changing routes and cancelling trips for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was important, are respectively about three times and seven times the estimated odds for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was not important. In contrast, after the flood, the influence of travel/traffic information on respondents’ travel behaviour diminishes. Finally, the analysis shows no evidence of the influence of travel/traffic information’s on respondents’ travel mode; this indicates that inducing travel mode change is a challenging task.

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Background In Australia, maternity care is available through universal coverage and a parallel, competitive private health insurance system. Differences between sectors in antenatal and intrapartum care and associated outcomes are well documented but few studies have investigated differences in postpartum care following hospital discharge and their impact on maternal satisfaction and confidence. Methods Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia from February to May 2010 were mailed a self-report survey 4 months postpartum. Regression analysis was used to determine associations between sector of birth and postpartum care, and whether postpartum care experiences explained sector differences in postpartum well-being (satisfaction, parenting confidence and feeling depressed). Results Women who birthed in the public sector had higher odds of health professional contact in the first 10 days post-discharge and satisfaction with the amount of postpartum care. After adjusting for demographic and postpartum contact variables, sector of birth no longer had an impact on satisfaction (AOR 0.95, 99% CI 0.78-1.31), but any form of health professional contact did. Women who had a care provider’s 24 hour contact details had higher odds of being satisfied (AOR 3.64, 95% CI 3.00-4.42) and confident (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08- 1.65). Conclusion Women who birthed in the public sector appeared more satisfied because they had higher odds of receiving contact from a health professional within 10 days post-discharge. All women should have an opportunity to speak to and/or see a doctor, midwife or nurse in the first 10 days at home, and the details of a person they can contact 24 hours a day.

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Public services face several workforce challenges, including impending retirements and austerity programs. Although employing more young people is a likely solution to balancing the demographic profile of public services, the literature and theory suggest that young people would have fared worse during the global financial crisis. This research tests propositions around the vulnerability of young people in selected Australian public services during the global financial crisis, in terms of quantity and quality of jobs obtained. Surprisingly, the findings suggest that many young people fared as well or sometimes better than other age cohorts during the global financial crisis in terms of both recruitment and access to ongoing jobs. There are several indications that perhaps public services provided a safe haven in a turbulent labour market.

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Objective: This study assessed 12-month service use patterns among people with psychotic disorders and sought to identify determinants of service use. Methods: As part of a large two-phase Australian study of psychotic disorders, structured interviews were conducted with a stratified random sample of adults who screened positive for psychosis. Demographic characteristics, social functioning, symptoms, mental health diagnoses, and use of psychiatric and nonpsychiatric services were assessed. Data were analyzed for 858 persons who had an ICD-10 diagnosis of a psychotic disorder and who had been hospitalized for less than six months during the previous year. Results: People with psychotic disorders had high levels of use of health services, both in absolute terms and relative to people with nonpsychotic disorders. Those with psychotic disorders were estimated to have an average of one contact with health services per week. Use of psychiatric inpatient services was associated with parenthood, higher symptom levels, recent attempts at suicide or self-harm, personal disability, medication status, and frequency of alcohol consumption. Services provided by general practitioners (family physicians) were more likely to be obtained by older people, women, people with greater availability of friends, those with fewer negative symptoms, and those whose service needs were unmet by other sources. People who were high users of health services also reported having more contact with a range of non-health agencies. Conclusions: The predictors of service use accounted for small proportions of the variance in overall use of health services. The role of general practitioners in providing and monitoring treatment programs and other psychosocial interventions needs to be acknowledged and enhanced.

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Coastal resources are coming under increasing pressure from competition between recreational, commercial and conservation uses. This is particularly so in coastal areas adjacent to major population centres. Given high recreational and conservation values in such areas, economic activities need to be highly efficient in order to persist. Management of these industries must therefore also encourage efficient production and full utilisation of the areas available. In order to achieve this, managers must first understand the level and drivers of productivity, and how these can be influenced. In this study, by way of illustration, the focus was on the Sydney rock oyster industry within Queensland's Moreton Bay, a multiple use marine park with high recreational and conservation value adjacent to Australia's third largest city. Productivity of the oyster industry in Moreton Bay is currently low compared to historic levels, and management has an objective of reversing this trend. It is unclear whether this difference is due to oyster farmers' business choices and personal characteristics or whether varying environmental conditions in the Moreton Bay limit the capacity of the oyster industry. These require different management responses in order to enhance productivity. The study examined different productivity measures of the oyster industry using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to determine where productivity gains can be made and by how much. The findings suggest that the industry is operating at a high level of capacity utilisation, but a low level of efficiency. The results also suggest that both demographic and environmental conditions affect technical efficiency in the Bay, with water characteristics improvements and appropriate training potentially providing the greatest benefits to the industry. Methods used in this study are transferable to other industries and provide a means by which coastal aquaculture may be managed to ensure it remains competitive with other uses of coastal resources.

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Distance education has gone through rapid expansion over the years. Many Australian universities are pushing the use of distance education in delivering construction education programs. However, the critical success factors (CSFs) in distance learning construction programs (DLCPs) are not fully understood. More importantly, students’ demographic features may affect the selection of distance education technologies. Situation-matching strategies should therefore be taken by universities or institutions with different student cohorts. A survey is adopted in Central Queensland University (CQU) to identify and rank the critical success factors in a DLCP in Australia where there is a significant number of earner-learners and students with low socioeconomic background. The findings suggest that the most important CSFs include access to computers and internet, reliability of web-based learning sites, high relevance and clarity of learning materials and assessment items, the availability of web-based learning sites that can be easily manipulated, and the capability of the instructors to provide well-structured courses. The findings also suggest that students with low socioeconomic background have more rigorous requirements on interface design, instructors’ support, and the integration of practical components into courses. The results provide good guidance of the design and delivery of DLCPs and will be useful for universities and institutions that are seeking to implement the distance mode in construction education.