Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.

Biodiversity of Collembola in urban soils and the use of Folsomia candida to assess soil 'quality'

The effects of metal contamination on natural populations of Collembola in soils from five sites in the Wolverhampton area ( West Midlands, England) were examined. Analysis revealed that metal concentrations were elevated above background levels at all sites. One location in particular (Ladymoor, a former smelting site) was highly contaminated with Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn at more than 20 times background levels. Biodiversity indices ( Shannon - Weiner, Simpson index, Margalef index, alpha index, species richness, Shaneven ( evenness) and Berger - Parker dominance) were calculated. Of these indices, estimates of species richness and evenness were most effective at highlighting the differences between the Collembola communities. Indeed, the highest number of species were found at the most contaminated site, although the Collembola population also had a comparatively low evenness value, with just two species dominating. The number of individuals per species were allocated into geometric classes and plotted against the cumulative number of species as a percentage. At Ladymoor, there were more geometric classes, and the slope of the line was shallower than at the other four sites. This characteristic is a feature of polluted sites, where a few species are dominant and most species are rare. The Ladymoor soil also had a dominance of Isotomurus palustris, and was the only site in which Ceratophysella denticulata was found. Previous studies have shown that these two species are often found in sites subject to high metal contamination. Survival and reproduction of the "standard'' test springtail, Folsomia candida (Willem), were determined in a 4 week exposure test to soils from all five sites. Mortality was significantly increased in adults and reproduction significantly lower in the Ladymoor soil in comparison to the other four sites. This study has shown that severe metal contamination can be related to the population structure of Collembola in the field, and performance of F. candida ( in soils from such sites) in the laboratory.

Joint effects of population density and toxicant exposure on population dynamics of Capitella sp I

Very few studies have analyzed the dependence of population growth rate on population density, and even fewer have considered interaction effects of density and other stresses, such as exposure to toxic chemicals. Yet without such studies we cannot know whether chemicals harmful at low density have effects on carrying capacity or, conversely, whether chemicals reducing carrying capacity are also harmful at low density, impeding a population's capacity to recover from disturbance. This study examines the combined effects of population density and a toxicant (fluoranthene) on population growth rate (pgr) and carrying capacity using the deposit-feeding polychaete Capitella sp. I as a test organism. Populations were initiated with a stable age distribution, and population density and age/size distribution were followed during a period of 28 wk. Fluoranthene (FLU), population density, and their interaction influenced population growth rate. Population growth rate declined linearly with the logarithm of population biomass, but the slope of the relationship was steeper for the control populations than for populations exposed to 50 mug FLU/(g sediment dry mass). Populations exposed to 150 mug FLU/(g sediment dry mass) went extinct after 8 wk of exposure. Despite concerns that toxicant effects would be exacerbated at high density, we found the reverse to be the case, and effects of fluoranthene on population growth rate were much reduced in the region of carrying capacity. Fluoranthene did. reduce carrying capacity by 46%, and this could haven important implications for interacting species and/or sediment biogeochemical processes.

Repeated challenge with prion disease: The risk of infection and impact on incubation period

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Effects of trauma exposure on the cortisol response to dexamethasone administration in PTSD and major depressive disorder

Objective: To evaluate cortisol suppression following 0.5 mg of dexamethasone (DEX) in trauma survivors (N = 52),with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), major depressive disorder (MDD), both, or neither disorder, and in subjects never exposed to trauma (N = 10), in order to examine interactions between diagnosis and trauma history on cortisol negative feedback inhibition. Method: Lifetime trauma exposure and psychiatric diagnoses were assessed and blood samples were obtained at 8:00 a.m. for the determination of baseline cortisol. Participants ingested 0.5 mg of DEX at 11:00 p.m. and blood samples for determination of cortisol and DEX were obtained at 8:00 a.m. the following day. Results: PTSD was associated with enhanced cortisol suppression in response to DEX Among trauma survivors, the presence of a traumatic event prior to the "focal" trauma had a substantial impact on cortisol suppression in subjects with MDD. Such subjects were more likely to show cortisol alterations similar to those associated with PTSD, whereas subjects with MDD with no prior trauma were more likely to show alterations in the opposite direction, i.e. relative non-suppression. Conclusions: Cortisol hypersuppression in PTSD appears not to be dependent on the presence of traumatic events prior to the focal trauma. However, prior trauma exposure may affect cortisol suppression in MDD. This finding may have implications for understanding why only some depressed patients show non-suppression on the DST. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The effects of pre- and postnatal depression in fathers: a natural experiment comparing the effects of exposure to depression on offspring

Background: Depression in fathers in the postnatal period is associated with an increased risk of behavioural problems in their offspring, particularly for boys. The aim of this study was to examine for differential effects of depression in fathers on children's subsequent psychological functioning via a natural experiment comparing prenatal and postnatal exposure. Methods:In a longitudinal population cohort study (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)) we examined the associations between depression in fathers measured in the prenatal and postnatal period (measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale), and later behavioural/emotional and psychiatric problems in their children, assessed at ages 31/2 and 7 years. Results: Children whose fathers were depressed in both the prenatal and postnatal periods had the highest risks of subsequent psychopathology, measured by total problems at age 31/2 years (Odds Ratio 3.55; 95% confidence interval 2.07, 6.08) and psychiatric diagnosis at age 7 years (OR 2.54; 1.19, 5.41). Few differences emerged when prenatal and postnatal depression exposure were directly compared, but when compared to fathers who were not depressed, boys whose fathers had postnatal depression only had higher rates of conduct problems aged 31/2 years (OR 2.14; 1.22, 3.72) whereas sons of the prenatal group did not (OR 1.41; .75, 2.65). These associations changed little when controlling for maternal depression and other potential confounding factors. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that the increased risk of later conduct problems, seen particularly in the sons of depressed fathers, maybe partly mediated through environmental means. In addition, children whose fathers are more chronically depressed appear to be at a higher risk of emotional and behavioural problems. Efforts to identify the precise mechanisms by which transmission of risk may occur should be encouraged to enable the development of focused interventions to mitigate risks for young children.

Training conditional and cumulative risk judgements: the role of frequencies, problem-structure and Einstellung

Two experiments implement and evaluate a training scheme for learning to apply frequency formats to probability judgements couched in terms of percentages. Results indicate that both conditional and cumulative probability judgements can be improved in this manner, however the scheme is insufficient to promote any deeper understanding of the problem structure. In both experiments, training on one problem type only (either conditional or cumulative risk judgements) resulted in an inappropriate transfer of a learned method at test. The obstacles facing a frequency-based training programme for teaching appropriate use of probability data are discussed. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Visual exposure impacts on toddlers' willingness to taste fruits and vegetables

This study explores the effects of exposure to pictures of fruits and vegetables on young children's willingness to taste the foods. The parents of 20 toddlers aged 21-24 months were asked to read a picture book about four foods with their child every day for two weeks. in a subsequent 'taste test' children displayed a neophobic pattern of behaviour towards foods to which they had not been exposed, but not towards exposed foods. Furthermore, while exposure served to decrease children's willingness to taste familiar vegetables, it increased their willingness to taste unfamiliar fruits. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Picture book exposure elicits positive visual preferences in toddlers

Although the relationship between "mere exposure" and attitude enhancement is well established in the adult domain, there has been little similar work with children. This article examines whether toddlers' visual attention toward pictures of foods can be enhanced by repeated visual exposure to pictures of foods in a parent-administered picture book. We describe three studies that explored the number and nature of exposures required to elicit positive visual preferences for stimuli and the extent to which induced preferences generalize to other similar items. Results show that positive preferences for stimuli are easily and reliably induced in children and, importantly, that this effect of exposure is not restricted to the exposed stimulus per se but also applies to new representations of the exposed item. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exposure to postnatal depression predicts elevated cortisol in adolescent offspring

Background. Animal research shows that early adverse experience results in altered glucocorticoid levels in adulthood, either raised basal levels or accentuated responses to stress. If a similar phenomenon operates in humans, this suggests a biological mechanism whereby early adversity might transmit risk for major depression, glucocorticoid elevations being associated with the development of this disorder. Methods. We measured salivary cortisol at 8:00 Am and 8:00 Pm over 10 days in 13-year-old adolescents who had (n = 48) or bad not (n = 39) been exposed to postnatal maternal depression. Results: Maternal postnatal depression was associated with higher, more variable morning cortisol in offspring, a pattern previously found to predict major depression. Conclusions. Early adverse experiences might alter later steroid levels in humans. Because maternal depression confers added risk for depression to children, these alterations might provide a link between early events and later psychopathology.

Dissociating mere exposure and repetition priming as a function of word type

The mere exposure effect is defined as enhanced attitude toward a stimulus that has been repeatedly exposed. Repetition priming is defined as facilitated processing of a previously exposed stimulus. We conducted a direct comparison between the two phenomena to test the assumption that the mere exposure effect represents an example of repetition priming. In two experiments, having studied a set of words or nonwords, participants were given a repetition priming task (perceptual identification) or one of two mere exposure (affective liking or preference judgment) tasks. Repetition printing was obtained for both words and nonwords, but only nonwords produced a mere exposure effect. This demonstrates a key boundary for observing the mere exposure effect, one not readily accommodated by a perceptual representation systems (Tulving & Schacter, 1990) account, which assumes that both phenomena should show some sensitivity to nonwords and words.

Understanding the relationship between repetition priming and mere exposure

Over the last two decades interest in implicit memory, most notably repetition priming, has grown considerably. During the same period, research has also focused on the mere exposure effect. Although the two areas have developed relatively independently, a number of studies has described the mere exposure effect as an example of implicit memory. Tacit in their comparisons is the assumption that the effect is more specifically a demonstration of repetition priming. Having noted that this assumption has attracted relatively little attention, this paper reviews current evidence and shows that it is by no means conclusive. Although some evidence is suggestive of a common underlying mechanism, even a modified repetition priming (perceptual fluency/attribution) framework cannot accommodate all of the differences between the two phenomena. Notwithstanding this, it seems likely that a version of this theoretical framework still offers the best hope of a comprehensive explanation for the mere exposure effect and its relationship to repetition priming. As such, the paper finishes by offering some initial guidance as to ways in which the perceptual fluency/attribution framework might be extended, as well as outlining important areas for future research.

From base-rate to cumulative respect

The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be "notorious," as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.