Anuário de pesquisa 2011-2012

Este anuário apresenta sínteses de pesquisas realizadas pelos professores pesquisadores da FGV-EAESP. Os trabalhos foram financiados pelo GVpesquisa, nossa área de apoio às atividades de pesquisa, em quatro categorias, sendo duas categorias de apoio individual e duas categorias de apoio coletivo, relacionadas a projetos de Linhas de Pesquisa e de Centros de Estudo. Este anuário traz também matérias sobre temas que têm ganhado destaque na FGV-EAESP, retratando iniciativas que unem as atividades de ensino e de pesquisa. Examinados em conjunto, estes textos oferecem uma visão panorâmica da diversidade e da riqueza das reflexões realizadas pelos pesquisadores da instituição. Permitem também identificar oportunidades para futuros desenvolvimentos, tanto teóricos como de aplicação prática. As sínteses das pesquisas foram preparadas pelos jornalistas Lucas Callegari e Adriana Wilner. As matérias foram escritas pela jornalista Verônica Couto. O projeto gráfico foi conduzido pela designer Cris Tassi e a coordenação geral do projeto coube a Daniela Mansour M. da Silveira, da equipe GVpesquisa. A preparação das sínteses contou com decisivo apoio dos próprios autores.

Assessing the maturity levei of an organization in its adoption of collaboration technologies

Nowadays there are many information technologies that can make a significant difference to support collaborative efforts in the workspace. The role of IT is to support group collaboration by empowering team members with the right capabilities. One way to assess capabilities is through a maturity model. This paper proposes a first version of the Collaboration-Technology Maturity model (CTMM), aiming to serve as a strategic instrument for IT managers to control and manage the adoption of Collaboration Technologies (CITs) among their organizations. Our contribution is both theoretical and practical as we propose a descriptive maturity model. Nevertheless, it is also an application method and assessment instruments. We also completed an empirical evaluation by conducting 89 assessments at Latin American companies of all sizes and industries. This extensive field exercise allowed us to not only evaluate the usefulness of the model and instruments but also investigate CIT adoption patterns in Latin America in an attempt to collect historical data to further evolve CTMM into a comparative model. Responses were used to provide conclusions on CIT adoption in Latin America with respect to three specific backgrounds: the country of origin (region), size (in number of employees) and industry type. The implications of our findings are discussed for practitioners and researchers.

The Culture of entrepreneurship: a study of the entrepreneurial motivation and attitudes towards business creation in the UAE in comparison to the US and Brazil

This study demonstrates the cultural dimension and the surrounding environment of different entrepreneurs selected from three countries, the United States of America, the Federative Republic of Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates. The general objective is to understand the difference in the entrepreneurial motives and spirit towards venture creation from the three different countries. After conducting field research and collecting the required data, a deep analysis was conducted to draw a comparison between the three cultures from an individual’s point of view, to help shape a set of proposed recommendations, which could be used to improve the current culture of entrepreneurship in the UAE.

CSR in South Africa mining sector

There are distinct ways in which mining companies in South Africa operate today that are different from the operations three decades ago. Companies have grown in proportion, and the extension of the businesses is directly proportional to the mining activities hence the ultimate prize of degradation and related challenges has to be faced. There is increasing need to understand the relationship between corporate social responsibility and company returns. Both the opponents and proponents of CSR argue their case through convincing arguments presented here concerning the subject as brought out in this discussion. The immediate stakeholders of any company are the consumers, and they form a critical component of the company’s operations. A study of the evolution of CSR Mining in South Africa strategies is critical; as brought out in the discussion of CSR strategies employed three decades ago with what is done today

Coffee house consumer behavior in Changsha, China

Women in Changsha are patronizing coffee-houses, ordering beverages and sweets, and disliking the taste of the expensive product purchased. This thesis is an exploratory research study conducted in Changsha, China with a consumer behavior focus. It uses primary surveys and interviews in addition to secondary sources from books, articles, and academic journals. It seeks to identify underlying motives for purchasing behavior from working women in the developing third-tier city Changsha, Hunan, China. It delves into the psychology of the working women who spend their hard-earned discretionary incomes at costly western chain coffee-houses. The inland mass-market consumer class feels the desire to project their newly established status while needing to save money for their personal future, their children’s schooling, and their parent’s retirement. They must wisely spend discretionary income while satisfying social societal norms. An individual’s self-concept plays and important role in determining which coffee shop she will frequent and what she will order. Daylight Donuts, Starbucks, Costa Coffee and local café’s all serve brewed coffee but they have different associations. This study aims at understanding the influencing factors associated with coffee-house brand equity and how the consumer’s perception of the brand forms her purchasing behavior. All coffee-house brands are relatively new in Changsha, none existing more than seven years. They do not have lasting ties with the community and need to create consumer relationships to ensure sustainability. Changsha women are bold and strong willed. If a corporation is to succeed in the future of Hunan, it will need to create an environment of hospitality excellence, place socially responsible roots in the society, and ask its customers what they want.

Impacto dos países desenvolvidos e emergentes na economia brasileira

A proposta desta dissertação é analisar o comportamento econômico brasileiro em relação às demais economias de países emergentes e desenvolvidos, utilizando-se como metodologia a análise de componentes principais com variáveis de crescimento econômico e macroeconômicas como inflação, bolsa, moeda e juros. Visando obter uma robustez maior nos resultados foram realizados dois exercícios, primeiro buscou-se comparar o resultado obtido para o Brasil com outros países. No segundo exercício a comparação foi realizada para diferentes períodos de tempo, de maneira de separar o período em pré e pós-crise de 2009.

Are returns on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), FDI determinants?

Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) acquired an important role in the development process of the global economy. FDI inward stock was equivalent to an average of 32% of GDP for OECD countries in 2013. However, FDI affects a country’s Balance of Payments (BoP) in two ways: FDI flows are recorded in the BoP financial account while returns on FDI affect the BoP current account. Therefore, part of the positive contribution of inward FDI to a country on its financial account could be potentially offset by a negative contribution of FDI returns on the current account. The intent of this work is to complement the research on FDI determinants by introducing FDI returns as a variable in a gravity model where bilateral FDI outflows are the dependent variable. Moreover, using outward FDI flows as the dependent variable, the work allows looking at the behavior of Multinational Corporations (MNC) investing abroad. The results show that MNCs repatriate returns generating from the investments they make abroad. This is particularly true when high-income countries are involved: MNCs from high-income countries repatriate returns to their home countries from FDI made anywhere, while MNCs from middle-income countries repatriate returns from FDI in high-income countries. Repatriated returns are a relevant variable determining the value of FDI that a country makes in another country. The information on FDI returns is starting to become available to the public. This allows MNCs to sharpen their investment location decision models and national IPAs to better assess the two-fold BoP effects of promoting FDI.

Abolição dos sistemas de cotas de produção de açúcar da União Europeia e os efeitos no setor agrícola

Este trabalho tem como proposta avaliar os impactos de médio e longo prazo da remoção da política de incentivo à produção de açúcar de beterraba na União Europeia (UE) sobre o mercado deste bem, assim como permitirá verificar se algumas conclusões de estudos realizados em 2013 sobre o futuro do mercado de açúcar da UE pós-2017 ainda estão válidas, uma vez que os preços e margens nesse mercado mudaram consideravelmente desde então. Para a análise em questão, utiliza-se uma versão do modelo econômico global GTAP – Global Trade Analysis Project, conhecido como GTAPinGAMS, e assume-se que a diferença entre o custo de produção e o preço mínimo europeu representa uma boa proxy para o desvio de preço ocasionado pela imposição da quota em relação ao preço de equilíbrio que seria observado em cada país da UE se a quota não existisse. A partir dos resultados obtidos por este trabalho é possível afirmar que a abolição das cotas de produção não afetará negativamente a UE. Haverá um aumento de produção de açúcar no bloco, tanto por aumento de produção de beterraba quanto por aumento na eficiência industrial. Os países com menor custo de produção suprirão as reduções sofridas nos países não competitivos e suprirão a necessidade do produto pela UE, uma vez que a reforma não inclui maior abertura comercial para países de fora do bloco. A isoglucose, principal produto substituto do açúcar na indústria alimentícia, terá um aumento de produção nos países com indústrias já instaladas, dado o aumento do consumo de grãos nestes países pela indústria produtora de açúcar. Os países que fazem comercialização com o grupo econômico também serão afetados, mas em menor grau, graças à manutenção das cotas preferenciais de importação.

Impactos econômicos da nova realidade da exploração do pré-sal. Existe uma ameaça ao etanol?

A partir de meados dos anos 2000, a produção brasileira de etanol voltou a prosperar. Enquanto isso, em 2007 foi anunciada a descoberta de grandes reservas de petróleo na camada pré-sal no litoral brasileiro. Com isso, a perspectiva promissora para a indústria brasileira de etanol começou a dar lugar ao desenvolvimento de petróleo do pré-sal com um ambicioso programa de investimentos. Além disso, entre 2011 e 2014 o Governo adotou uma nova política de preços domésticos da gasolina e diesel, com o objetivo de reduzir as pressões inflacionárias, mas reduzindo gradualmente a competitividade do etanol, além de comprometer a situação financeira da Petrobras, dificultando investimentos no pré-sal. Considerando tais desafios e a importância dos setores de petróleo e etanol para a economia brasileira, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos econômicos de longo prazo da exploração do pré-sal, com especial atenção para as consequências sobre o setor de etanol. É realizada uma avaliação dos impactos da política de controle do preço da gasolina do período 2011-2014 sobre o setor de etanol. Um modelo adaptado de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo é empregado no qual o setor do petróleo do pré-sal é adicionado como uma tecnologia backstop. Os resultados sugerem que o estímulo precoce da produção do pré-sal para alcançar a produção de petróleo esperada pelo Governo traz mais custos do que benefícios para a economia brasileira. Constatou-se que sem interferência do governo, a produção de petróleo do pré-sal torna-se competitiva somente após 2025-2035. Com relação ao impacto sobre a indústria do etanol, verificou-se que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal não enfraquece a produção brasileira de etanol. No entanto, a política de controle de preço da gasolina teve um impacto negativo sobre o setor de etanol.

Citizens and the future of multilateralism in a polycentric world at 2030: the perspectives of emerging countries for the trading system: the impasse of WTO, the trends of mega agreements, the logic of value chains and the advent of consumers concerns on international trade

A new paradigm is modeling the World: evolutionary innovations in all fronts, new information technologies, huge mobility of capital, use of risky financial tools, globalization of production, new emerging powers and the impact of consumer concerns on governmental policies. These phenomena are shaping the World and forcing the advent of a new World Order in the Multilateral Monetary, Financial, and Trading System. The effects of this new paradigm are also transforming global governance. The political and economic orders established after the World War and centered on the multilateral model of UN, IMF, World Bank, and the GATT, leaded by the developed countries, are facing significant challenges. The rise of China and emerging countries shifted the old model to a polycentric World, where the governance of these organizations are threatened by emerging countries demanding a bigger participation in the role and decision boards of these international bodies. As a consequence, multilateralism is being confronted by polycentrism. Negotiations for a more representative voting process and the pressure for new rules to cope with the new demands are paralyzing important decisions. This scenario is affecting seriously not only the Monetary and Financial Systems but also the Multilateral Trading System. International trade is facing some significant challenges: a serious deadlock to conclude the last round of the multilateral negotiation at the WTO, the fragmentation of trade rules by the multiplication of preferential and mega agreements, the arrival of a new model of global production and trade leaded by global value chains that is threatening the old trade order, and the imposition of new sets of regulations by private bodies commanded by transnationals to support global value chains and non-governmental organizations to reflect the concerns of consumers in the North based on their precautionary attitude about sustainability of products made in the World. The lack of any multilateral order in this new regulation is creating a big cacophony of rules and developing a new regulatory war of the Global North against the Global South. The objective of this paper is to explore how these challenges are affecting the Tradinge System and how it can evolve to manage these new trends.

The impacts of TTIP on Brazil

The objective of this project is to analyze the effects for Brazil of the conclusion of TTIP. This is approached under different hypotheses: considering the effects on Brazil of a TTIP with the reduction of only tariff barriers between US and EU; introducing a partial reduction of non-tariff barriers; and, at last, with a complete reduction of these barriers. To finalize, an audacious alternative is assumed: a hypothetical participation of Brazil in the TTIP under a partial reduction of agricultural tariffs by the US and EU markets, and under a full liberalization of their agricultural markets. The methodology used to estimate non-tariff barriers was presented in the Ecorys Project (2009) developed by Berden e Francois to the European Commission.

Exchange rate misalignments and international trade policy: impacts on tariffs

The debate on “exchange wars and trade wars” is raising the attention of experts on international trade and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on one of the most traditional trade policy instruments – tariffs, as defined by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into three sections: the first one examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and its consequences for the multilateral trade system; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; and the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers

Impactos do câmbio nos instrumentos de comércio internacional: o caso das tarifas

Este artigo tem por objetivo analisar os impactos dos desalinhamentos cambiais nos instrumentos de comércio internacional, como estabelecidos pela OMC – Organização Mundial do Comércio. É composto por três partes: a primeira examina os efeitos das variações cambiais sobre tarifas e suas consequências para o sistema multilateral de comércio; a segunda detalha a metodologia utilizada para determinar desalinhamentos cambiais; e a terceira resume a metodologia para determinar o impacto do cambio sobre o nível de proteção tarifária

On the effects of non tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework