Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

A large deletion in the adRP gene PRPF31: evidence that haploinsufficiency is the cause of disease.

PURPOSE: To report a large deletion that encompasses more than 90% of PRPF31 gene and two other neighboring genes in their entirety in an adRP pedigree that appears to show only the typical clinical features of retinitis pigmentosa. METHODS: To identify PRPF31 mutation in a dominant RP family (ADRP2) previously linked to the RP11 locus, the 14 exons of PRPF31 were screened for mutations by direct sequencing. To investigate the possibility of a large deletion, microsatellite markers near PRPF31 gene were analyzed by non-denaturing PAGE. RESULTS: Initial screening of PRPF31 gene in the ADRP2 family did not reveal an obvious mutation. A large deletion was however suspected due to lack of heterozygosity for nearly all PRPF31 intragenic single nucleotide polymorphysm (SNPs). In order to estimate the size of the deletion, SNPs and microsatellite markers spanning and flanking PRPF31 were analyzed in the entire ADRP2 family. Haplotype analysis with the above markers suggested a deletion of approximately 30 kb that included the putative promoter region of a novel gene OSCAR, the entire genomic content of genes NDUFA3, TFPT and more than 90% of PRPF31 gene. Sequence analysis of the region flanking the potential deletion showed a high presence of Alu elements implicating Alu mediated recombination as the mechanism responsible for this event. CONCLUSIONS: This mutation provides evidence that haploinsufficiency rather than aberrant function of mutated proteins is the cause of disease in these adRP patients with mutations in PRPF31 gene.

Androgenetic alopecia: identification of four genetic risk loci and evidence for the contribution of WNT signaling to its etiology.

The pathogenesis of androgenetic alopecia (AGA, male-pattern baldness) is driven by androgens, and genetic predisposition is the major prerequisite. Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies have reported that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at eight different genomic loci are associated with AGA development. However, a significant fraction of the overall heritable risk still awaits identification. Furthermore, the understanding of the pathophysiology of AGA is incomplete, and each newly associated locus may provide novel insights into contributing biological pathways. The aim of this study was to identify unknown AGA risk loci by replicating SNPs at the 12 genomic loci that showed suggestive association (5 × 10(-8)<P<10(-5)) with AGA in a recent meta-analysis. We analyzed a replication set comprising 2,759 cases and 2,661 controls of European descent to confirm the association with AGA at these loci. Combined analysis of the replication and the meta-analysis data identified four genome-wide significant risk loci for AGA on chromosomes 2q35, 3q25.1, 5q33.3, and 12p12.1. The strongest association signal was obtained for rs7349332 (P=3.55 × 10(-15)) on chr2q35, which is located intronically in WNT10A. Expression studies in human hair follicle tissue suggest that WNT10A has a functional role in AGA etiology. Thus, our study provides genetic evidence supporting an involvement of WNT signaling in AGA development.

New evidence for a thermogenic defect in human obesity.

A reduced thermogenic response to food ingestion may contribute to the dynamic phase of weight gain in obesity. A defect in diet-induced thermogenesis has been reported in about one third of an unselected group of obese women. After inducing weight loss with a hypocaloric diet, the thermogenic defect does not disappear. Since basal metabolic rate decreases with weight loss, the overall postprandial energy expenditure of 'post-obese' individuals can be lower than that of lean controls. As a consequence, post-obese subjects must reset energy intake to a lower level than the previous maintenance food consumption in order to avoid relapse of body weight gain.

Rules vs. political discretion: evidence from constitutionally guaranteed transfers to local governments in Brazil

Can rules be used to shield public resources from political interference? The Brazilian constitution and national tax code stipulate that revenue sharing transfers to municipal governments be determined by the size of counties in terms of estimated population. In this paper I document that the population estimates which went into the transfer allocation formula for the year 1991 were manipulated, resulting in significant transfer differentials over the entire 1990's. I test whether conditional on county characteristics that might account for the manipulation, center-local party alignment, party popularity and the extent of interparty fragmentation at the county level are correlated with estimated populations in 1991. Results suggest that revenue sharing transfers were targeted at right-wing national deputies in electorally fragmented counties as well as aligned local executives.

The Impact of Trade on Technology and Skill Upgrading Evidence from Argentina

In the last 20 years, wage inequality has increased in many developing countries. Most research on this topic focuses on two alternative causes: trade or skill-biased technical change. Several empirical studies in both developed and developing countries document increases in skill intensity within all sectors, favoring the technological change explanation over trade. Instead, I present and test a model where bilateral trade liberalization increases exporting revenues inducing more firms to enter the export market and to adopt skilled-biased new technologies. I find that the increase in the relative demand of skilled labor does not come from labor reallocation across sectors or firms but from skill upgrading within firms. Firms that upgrade technology faster also upgrade skill faster. Finally, firms entering the export market after liberalization become more skill and technology-intensive than non exporters.

Capital, Wages, and Growth: Theory and Evidence

Returns to scale to capital and the strength of capital externalities play a key role for the empirical predictions and policy implications of different growth theories. We show that both can be identified with individual wage data and implement our approach at the city-level using US Census data on individuals in 173 cities for 1970, 1980, and 1990. Estimation takes into account fixed effects, endogeneity of capital accumulation, and measurement error. We find no evidence for human or physical capital externalities and decreasing aggregate returns to capital. Returns to scale to physical and human capital are around 80 percent. We also find strong complementarities between human capital and labor and substantial total employment externalities.

Intergovernmental Transfers and Elementary Education: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brazil

Whether providing additional resources to local communities leads to improved public services and better outcomes more generally, given existing management capacity and incentive and accountability structures, is an unresolved yet important question for public policy. This paper uses a regression-discontinuity design to evaluate the effect of unrestricted fiscal transfers on local spending (including on education), schooling and learning in Brazil. Results show that transfers increase local public spending almost one for one with no evidence of crowding out own revenue or other revenue sources. Extra per capita transfers of 1000 Reais lead to about 0.42 additional years of elementary schooling and student literacy rates increase by about 5.6 percentage points on average. Part of this effect arises through higher teacher-student ratios in municipal elementary school systems. Results also suggest that additional resources have stronger effects in more rural and less developed parts of Brazil.

Global Prospects for Dairy in Argentina and Chile: Evidence from Field Visits and Model Simulations, August 2006

We assess the international competitiveness of the dairy industries in Argentina and Chile, combining recent market intelligence gathered from field visits with quantitative simulations of global policy reform scenarios. Both countries exhibit strong potential for export growth but face significant internal and external barriers to expanding their dairy industries. Global policy reforms would resolve some of the international obstacles to their expansion. Argentina has great potential, but it is handicapped by its current macroeconomic policies, trade policy distortions, and the uncertainty associated with policy implementation. Chile is more limited in terms of natural capacity for expansion, but it has a positive trade and investment environment.

Social spending and demographics: The role of public policies in the intergenerational redistribution of income. Empirical evidence from Spain and Catalonia

The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of the fundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

New evidence for the social embeddedness of infants' early triangular capacities.

Infants appear to be active participants in complex interactional sequences with their parents far earlier than previously theorized. In this report, we document the capacity of 3-month-old infants to share attention with two partners (mothers and fathers) simultaneously, and trace links between this capacity and early family group-level dynamics. During comprehensive evaluations of the family's emergent coparenting alliance completed in 113 homes, we charted infants' eye gaze patterns during two different mother-father-infant assessment paradigms. Triangular capacities (operationalized as the frequency of rapid multishift gaze transitions between parents during interactions) were stable across interaction context. Infants exhibiting more advanced triangular capacities belonged to families showing evidence of better coparental adjustment. Theoretical and practice implications of these findings are discussed.

The Speed of the Financial Revolution: Evidence from Hoare’s Bank

Finance is important for development, yet the onset of modern economic growth in Britain lagged the British financial revolution by over a century. We present evidence from a new West-End London private bank to explain this delay. Hoare’s Bank loaned primarily to a highly select and well-born clientele, although it did not discriminate against “unknown” borrowers in the early 18th century. It could not extend credit more generally because of government restrictions (usury limits) and policies (frequent wars). Britain’s financial development could have aided growth substantially, had it not been for the rigidities and turmoil introduced by government interference.