Risk Parity: A Modern Tool for Diversification

The purpose of this study is to examine how well risk parity works in terms of risk, return and diversification relative to more traditional minimum variance, 1/N and 60/40 portfolios. Risk parity portfolios were constituted of five risk sources; three common asset classes and two alternative beta investment strategies. The three common asset classes were equities, bonds and commodities, and the alternative beta investment strategies were carry trade and trend following. Risk parity portfolios were constructed using five different risk measures of which four were tail risk measures. The risk measures were standard deviation, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, modified Value-at-Risk and modified Expected Shortfall. We studied also how sensitive risk parity is to the choice of risk measure. The hypothesis is that risk parity portfolios provide better return with the same amount of risk and are better diversified than the benchmark portfolios. We used two data sets, monthly and weekly data. The monthly data was from the years 1989-2011 and the weekly data was from the years 2000-2011. Empirical studies showed that risk parity portfolios provide better diversification since the diversification is made at the risk level. Risk based portfolios provided superior return compared to the asset based portfolios. Using tail risk measures in risk parity portfolios do not necessarily provide better hedge from tail events than standard deviation.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Oxidized LDL lipids as a risk factor for atherosclerosis

University of Turku, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Medicine, Department of Physical Activity and Health, Paavo Nurmi Centre, Doctoral Programme of Clinical Investigation, University of Turku, Turku, Finland. Annales Universitatis Turkuensis. Medica – Odontologica, Turku, Finland, 2014. Background: Atherosclerosis progression spans an entire lifetime and has a wide pool of risk factors. Oxidized LDL (oxLDL) is a crucial element in the progression of atherosclerosis. As a rather new member in the atherosclerosis risk factor family, its interaction with the traditional pro-atherogenic contributors that occur at different ages is poorly known. Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate oxLDL and its relation to major contributing risk factors in estimating atherosclerosis risk in data consisting mostly of adult men. The study subjects of this study consisted of four different sets of data, one of which contained also women. The age range of participants was 18-100 years and totaled 2337 participants (of whom 69% were men). Data on anthropometric and hormonal parameters, laboratory measures and medical records were assessed during 1998-2009. Results: Obesity was paralleled with high concentrations of oxLDL, which consequentially was reduced by weight reduction. Importantly, successful weight maintenance preserveed this benefit. A shift from insulin sensitivity to insulin resistance increased oxLDL. Smokers had more oxLDL than non-smokers. A combination of obesity and smoking, or smoking and low serum total testosterone,resulted in even higher levels of oxLDL than any of the three conditions alone. Proportioning oxLDL to HDL-c or apoA1 stood out as a risk factor of all-cause mortality in the elderly. Conclusions: OxLDL was associated with aging, androgens, smoking, obesity, insulin metabolism, weight balance and other circulating lipid classes. Through this variety of metabolic environments containing both constant conditions (aging and gender) as well as lifestyle issues, these findings supported an essential and multidimensional role that oxLDL plays in atherosclerosis pathogenesis.

Gross proteinuria is a strong risk predictor for cardiovascular mortality in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

Drying soybean seed using air ambient temperature at low relative humidity

Under subtropical and tropical environments soybean seed (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) are harvested early to avoid deterioration from weathering. Careful after-harvest drying is required and is an important step in maintaining the physiological quality of the seed. Soybean seed should be harvested when the moisture content is in a range of 16-20%. Traditional drying utilizes a high temperature air stream passed through the seed mass without dehumidification. The drying time is long because the system is inefficient and the high temperature increases the risk of thermal damage to the seed. New technology identified as heat pipe technology (HPT) is available and has the unique feature of removing the moisture from the air stream before it is passed through the seed mass at the same environmental temperature. Two studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of HPT for dry soybean seed. In the first study the seeds were dried from 17.5 to 11.1% in 2 hours and 29 minutes and in the second sudy the seeds were dried from 22.6 to 11.9% in 16 hours and 32 minutes. This drying process caused no reduction in seed quality as measured by the standard germination, tetrazolium-viability, accelerated aging and seedling vigor classification tests. The only parameter that indicated a slight seed quality reduction was tetrazolium vigor in the second study. It was concluded that the HPT system is a promising technology for drying soybean seed when efficiency and maintenance of physiological quality are desired.

Drying peanut seed using air ambient temperature at low relative humidity

The moisture content of peanut kernel (Arachis hypogaea L.) at digging ranges from 30 to 50% on a wet basis (w.b.). The seed moisture content must be reduced to 10.5% or below before seeds can be graded and marketed. After digging, peanuts are cured on a window sill for two to five days then mechanically separated from the vine. Heated air is used to further dry the peanuts from approximately 18 to 10% moisture content w.b. Drying is required to maintain peanut seed and grain quality. Traditional dryers pass a high temperature and high humidity air stream through the seed mass. The drying time is long because the system is inefficient and the high temperature increases the risk of thermal damage to the kernels. New technology identified as heat pipe technology (HPT) is available and has the unique feature of removing the moisture from the air stream before it is heated and passed through the seed. A study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the HPT system in drying peanut seed. The seeds inside the shells were dried from 17.4 to 7.3% in 14 hours and 11 minutes, with a rate of moisture removal of 0.71% mc per hour. This drying process caused no reduction in seed quality as measured by the standard germination, accelerated ageing and field emergence tests. It was concluded that the HPT system is a promising technology for drying peanut seed when efficiency and maintenance of physiological quality are desired.

An exploratory study for the discovery of non-invasive hepatocellular carcinoma biomarkers among high-risk hepatitis C virus infected patients

Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is a major healthcare problem, representing the third most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Chronic infections with Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or Hepatitis C virus (HCV) are the major risk factors for the development of HCC. The incidence of HBV -associated HCC is in decline as a result of an effective HBV vaccine; however, since an equally effective HCV vaccine has not yet been developed, there are 130 million HCV infected patients worldwide who are at a high-risk for developing HCC. Because reliable parameters and/or tools for the early detection of HCC among high-risk individuals are severely lacking, HCC patients are always diagnosed at a late stage where surgical solutions or effective treatment are not possible. Using urine as a non-invasive sample source, two different approaches (proteomic-based and genomic-based approaches) were pursued with the common goal of discovering potential biomarker candidates for the early detection of HCC among high-risk chronic HCV infected patients. Urine was collected from 106 HCV infected Egyptian patients, 32 of whom had already developed HCC and 74 patients who were diagnosed as HCC-free at the time of initial sample collection. In addition to these patients, urine samples were also collected from 12 healthy control individuals. Total urinary proteins, Trans-renal nucleic acid (Tr-NA) and microRNA (miRNA) were isolated from urine using novel methodologies and silicon carbide-loaded spin columns. In the first, "proteomic-based", approach, liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was used to identify potential candidates from pooled urine samples. This was followed by validating relative expression levels of proteins present in urine among all the patients using quantitative real time-PCR (qRT-PCR). This approach revealed that significant over-expression of three proteins: DJ-1, Chromatin Assembly Factor-1 (CAF-1) and 11 Moemen Abdalla HCC Biomarkers Heat Shock Protein 60 (HSP60), were characteristic events among HCC-post HCV infected patients. As a single-based HCC biomarker, CAF-1 over-expression identified HCC among HCV infected patients with a specificity of 90%, sensitivity of 66% and with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 78%. Moreover, the CAF-lIHSP60 tandem identified HCC among HCV infected patients with a specificity of 92%, sensitivity of 61 % and with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 77%. In the second genomic-based approach, two different approaches were processed. The first approach was the miRNA-based approach. The expression levels of miRNAs isolated from urine were studied using the Illumina MicroRNA Expression Profiling Assay. This was followed by qRT-PCR-based validation of deregulated expression of identified miRNA candidates among all the patients. This approach shed the light on the deregulated expression of a number of miRNAs, which may have a role in either the development of HCC among HCV infected patients (i.e. miR-640, miR-765, miR-200a, miR-521 and miR-520) or may allow for a better understanding of the viral-host interaction (miR-152, miR-486, miR-219, miR452, miR-425, miR-154 and miR-31). Moreover, the deregulated expression of both miR-618 and miR-650 appeared to be a common event among HCC-post HCV infected patients. The results of the search for putative targets of these two miRNA suggested that miR-618 may be a potent oncogene, as it targets the tumor-suppressor gene Low density lipoprotein-related protein 12 (LPR12), while miR-650 may be a potent tumor-suppressor gene, as it is supposed to downregulate the TNF receptor-associated factor-4 (TRAF4) oncogene. The specificity of miR-618 and miR-650 deregulated expression patterns for the early detection of HCC among HCV infected patients was 68% and 58%, respectively, whereas the sensitivity was 64% and 72%, respectively. When the deregulated expression of both miRNAs was combined as a tandem biomarker, the specificity and the sensitivity were 75% and 58% respectively. 111 Moemen Abdalla HCC Biomarkers In the second, "Trans-renal nucleic acid-based", approach, the urinary apoptotic nucleic acid (uaNA) levels of 70ng/mL or more were found to be a good predictor of HCC among chronic HCV infected patients. The specificity and the sensitivity of this diagnostic approach were 76% and 86%, respectively, with an overall diagnostic value of 81 %. The uaNA levels positively correlated to HCC disease progression as monitored by epigenetic changes of a panel of eight tumor-suppressor genes (TSGs) using methylation-sensitive PCR. Moreover, the pairing of high uaNA levels (:::: 70 ng/mL) and CAF-1 over-expreSSIOn produced a highly specific (l 00%) multiple-based HCC biomarker with an acceptable sensitivity of 64%, and with a diagnostic accuracy of 82%. In comparison to the previous pairing, the uaNA levels (:::: 70 ng/mL) in tandem with HSP60 over-expression was less specific (89%) but highly sensitive (72%), resulting in a diagnostic accuracy of 64%. The specificities of miR-650 deregulated expression in combination with either high uaNA content or HSP 60 over-expression were 82% and 79%, respectively, whereas, the sensitivities of these combinations were 64% and 58%, respectively. The potential biomarkers identified in this study compare favorably with the diagnostic accuracy of the a-fetoprotein levels test, which has a specificity of 75%, sensitivity of 68% and an overall diagnostic accuracy of 70%. Here we present an intriguing study which shows the significance of using urine as a noninvasive sample source for the identification of promising HCC biomarkers. We have also introduced new techniques for the isolation of different urinary macromolecules, especially miRNA, from urine. Furthermore, we strongly recommend the potential biomarkers indentified in this study as focal points of any future research on HCC diagnosis. A larger testing pool will determine if their use is practical for mass population screening. This explorative study identified potential targets that merit further investigation for the development of diagnostically accurate biomarkers isolated from 1-2 mL urine samples that were acquired in a non-invasive manner.

The influence of recreational ball hockey play on cardiovascular risk factors in sedentary males

Introduction: The prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is ever increasing in western industrialized societies. An individuals overall risk for CAD may be quantified by integrating a number of factors including, but not limited to, cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipid profile and blood pressure. It might be expected that interventions aimed at improving any or all of these independent factors might improve an individual 's overall risk. To this end, the influence of standard endurance type exercise on cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipids and blood pressure, and by extension the reduction of coronary risk factors, is well documented. On the other hand, interval training (IT) has been shown to provide an extremely powerful stimulus for improving indices of cardiorespiratory function but the influence of this training type on coronary risk factors is unknown. Moreover, the vast majority of studies investigating the effects of IT on fitness have used laboratory type training protocols. As a result of this, the influence of participation in interval-type recreational sports on cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary risk factors is unknown. Aims: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of recreational ball hockey, a sport associated with interval-type activity patterns, on indices of aerobic function and coronary risk factors in sedentary men in the approximate age range of 30 - 60 years. Individual risk factors were compiled into an overall coronary risk factor score using the Framingham Point Scale (FPS). Methods: Twenty-four sedentary males (age range 30 - 60) participated in the study. Subject activity level was assessed apriori using questionnaire responses. All subjects (experimental and control) were assessed to have been inactive and sedentary prior to participation in the study. The experimental group (43 ± 3 years; 90 ± 3 kg) (n = 11) participated in one season of recreational ball hockey (our surrogate for IT). Member of this group played a total of 16 games during an 11 week span. During this time, the control group (43 ± 2 years; 89 ± 2 kg) (n = 11) performed no training and continued with their sedentary lifestyle. Prior to and following the ball hockey season, experimental and control subjects were tested for the following variables: 1) cardiorespiratory fitness (as V02 Max) 2) blood lipid profile 3) body composition 5) waist to hip ratio 6) blood glucose levels and 7) blood pressure. Subject V02 Max was assessed using the Rockport submaximal walking test on an indoor track. To assess body composition we determined body mass ratio (BMI), % body fat, % lean body mass and waist to hip ratio. The blood lipid profile included high density lipoprotein, low density lipoprotein and total cholesterol levels; in addition, the ratio of total cholesterol to high density was calculated. Blood triglycerides were also assessed. All data were analyzed using independent t - tests and all data are expressed as mean ± standard error. Statistical significance was accepted at p :S 0.05. Results: Pre-test values for all variables were similar between the experimental and control group. Moreover, although the intervention used in this study was associated with changes in some variables for subjects in the experimental group, subjects in the control group did not exhibit any changes over the same time period. BODY COMPOSITION: The % body fat of experimental subjects decreased by 4.6 ± 0.5%, from 28.1 ± 2.6 to 26.9 ± 2.5 % while that of the control group was unchanged at 22.7 ± 1.4 and 22.2 ± 1.3 %. However, lean body mass of experimental and control subjects did not change at 64.3 ± 1.3 versus 66.1 ± 1.3 kg and 65.5 ± 0.8 versus 64.7 ± 0.8 kg, respectively. In terms of body mass index and waist to hip ratio, neither the experimental nor the control group showed any significant change. Respective values for the waist to hip ratio and body mass index (pre and post) were as follows: 1 ± 0.1 vs 0.9 ± 0.1 (experimental) and 0.9 ± 0.1 versus 0.9 ± 0.1 (controls) while for BMI they were 29 ± 1.4 versus 29 ± 1.2 (experimental) and 26 ± 0.7 vs. 26 ± 0.7 (controls). CARDIORESPIRATORY FITNESS: In the experimental group, predicted values for absolute V02 Max increased by 10 ± 3% (i.e. 3.3 ± 0.1 to 3.6 ± 0.1 liters min -1 while that of control subjects did not change (3.4 ± 0.2 and 3.4 ± 0.2 liters min-I). In terms of relative values for V02 Max, the experimental group increased by 11 ± 2% (37 ± 1.4 to 41 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I) while that of control subjects did not change (41 ± 1.4 and 40 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I). BLOOD LIPIDS: Compared to pre-test values, post-test values for HDL were decreased by 14 ± 5 % in the experiment group (from 52.4 ± 4.4 to 45.2 ± 4.3 mg dl-l) while HDL data for the control group was unchanged (49.7 ± 3.6 and 48.3 ± 4.1 mg dl-l, respectively. On the other hand, LDL levels did not change for either the experimental or control group (110.2 ± 10.4 versus 112.3 ± 7.1 mg dl-1 and 106.1 ± 11.3 versus 127 ± 15.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Further, total cholesterol did not change in either the experimental or control group (181.3 ± 8.7 mg dl-1 versus 178.7± 4.9 mg dl-l) and 190.7 ± 12.2 versus 197.1 ± 16.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Similarly, the ratio of TC/HDL did not change for either the experimental or control group (3.8 ± 0.4 versus 4.5 ± 0.5 and 4 ± 0.4 versus 4.2 ± 0.4, respectively). Blood triglyceride levels were also not altered in either the experimental or control group (100.3 ± 19.6 versus 114.8 ± 15.3 mg dl-1 and 140 ± 23.5 versus 137.3 ± 17.9 mg dl-l, respectively). BLOOD GLUCOSE: Fasted blood glucose levels did not change in either the experimental or control group. Pre- and post-values for experimental and control groups were 92.5 ± 4.8 versus 93.3 ± 4.3 mg dl-l and 92.3 ± 11.3 versus 93.2 ± 2.6 mg dl-1 , respectively. BLOOD PRESSURE: No aspect of blood pressure was altered in either the experimental or control group. For example, pre- and post-test systolic blood pressures were 131 ± 2 versus 129 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 123 ± 2 and 125 ± 2 mmHg (controls), respectively. Pre- and post-test diastolic blood pressures were 84 ± 2 and 83 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 81 ± 1 versus 82 ± 1 mmHg, respectively. Similarly, calculated pulse pressure was not altered in the experimental or control as pre- and post-test values were 47 ± 1 versus 47 ± 2 mmlHg and 42 ± 2 versus 43 ± 2 mmHg, respectively. FRAMINGHAM POINT SCORE: The concerted changes reported above produced an increased risk in the Framingham Point Score for the subjects in the experimental group. For example, the pre- and post-test FPS increased from 1.4 ± 0.9 to 2.7 ± 0.7. On the other hand, pre- and post-test scores for the control group were 1.8 ± 1 versus 1.8 ± 0.9. Conclusions: Our data confirms previous studies showing that interval-type exercise is a useful intervention for increasing aerobic fitness. Moreover, the increase in V02 Max we found in response to limited participation in ball hockey (i.e. 16 games) suggests that recreational sport may help reduce this aspect of coronary risk in previously sedentary individual. On the other hand, our results showing little or no positive change in body composition, blood lipids or blood pressures suggest that one season of recreational sport in not in of itself a powerful enough stimulus to reduce the overall risk of coronary artery disease. In light of this, it is recommended that, in addition to participation in recreational sport, the performance of regular physical activity is used as an adjunct to provide a more powerful overall stimulus for decreasing coronary risk factors. LIMITATIONS: The increase in the FPS we found for the experimental group, indicative of an increased risk for coronary disease, was largely due to the large decrease in HDL we observed after compared to above one season of ball hockey. In light of the fact that cardiorespiratory fitness was increased and % body fat was decreased, as well as the fact that other parameters such as blood pressure showed positive (but non statistically significant) trends, the possibility that the decrease in HDL showed by our data was anomalous should be considered. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: The results of this study suggesting that recreational sport may be a potentially useful intervention in the reduction of CAD require to be corroborated by future studies specifically employing 1) more rigorous assessment of fitness and fitness change and 2) more prolonged or frequent participants.

Nonsuicidal Self-Injury and Suicidal Risk: An Examination among Young Adults

Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI), which refers to the direct and deliberate destruction of bodily tissue in the absence of suicidal intent, is a serious and widespread mental health concern. Although NSSI has been differentiated from suicidal behavior on the basis of non-lethal intent, research has shown that these two behaviors commonly co-occur. Despite increased research on the link between NSSI and suicidal behavior, however, little attention has been given as to why these two behaviors are associated. My doctoral dissertation specifically addressed this gap in the literature by examining the link between NSSI and several measures of suicidal risk (e.g., suicidal ideation, suicidal attempts, pain tolerance) among a large sample of young adults. The primary goal of my doctoral research was to identify individuals who engaged in NSSI at risk for suicidal ideation and attempts, in an effort to elucidate the processes through which psychosocial risk, NSSI, and suicidal risk may be associated. Participants were drawn from a larger sample of 1153 undergraduate students (70.3% female) at a mid-sized Canadian University. In study one, I examined whether increases in psychosocial risk and suicidal ideation were associated with changes in NSSI engagement over a one year period. Analyses revealed that beginners, relapsed injurers, and persistent injurers were differentiated from recovered injurers and desisters by increases in psychsocial risk and suicidal ideation over time. In study two, I examined whether several NSSI characteristics (e.g., frequency, number of methods) were associated with suicidal risk using latent class analysis. Three subgroups of individuals were identified: 1) an infrequent NSSI/not high risk for suicidal behavior group, 2) a frequent NSSI/not high risk for suicidal behavior group, and 3) a frequent NSSI/high risk for suicidal behavior group. Follow-up analyses indicated that individuals in the frequent NSSI/high risk for suicidal behavior group met the clinical cutoff score for high suicidal risk and reported significantly greater levels of suicidal ideation, attempts, and risk for future suicidal behavior as compared to the other two classes. Class 3 was also differentiated by higher levels of psychosocial risk (e.g., depressive symptoms, social anxiety) relative to the other two classes, as well as a comparison group of non-injuring young adults. Finally, in study three, I examined whether NSSI was associated with pain tolerance in a lab-based task, as tolerance to pain has been shown to be a strong predictor of suicidal risk. Individuals who engaged in NSSI to regulate the need to self-punish, tolerated pain longer than individuals who engaged in NSSI but not to self-punish and a non-injuring comparison group. My findings offer new insight into the associations among psychosocial risk, NSSI, and suicidal risk, and can serve to inform intervention efforts aimed at individuals at high risk for suicidal behavior. More specifically, my findings provide clinicians with several NSSI-specific risk factors (e.g., frequent self-injury, self-injuring alone, self-injuring to self-punish) that may serve as important markers of suicidal risk among individuals engaging in NSSI.

Associations between area-level unemployment, body mass index, and risk factors for cardiovascular disease in an urban area

INTRODUCTION: Il existe peu d’évidences sur l’association entre le taux de chômage dans le milieu résidentiel (CR) et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires parmi les résidents de milieux urbains. De plus, on ne sait pas si ce lien diffère entre les deux sexes. Cette thèse a pour objectif de déterminer la direction et la taille de l’association entre le CR et le risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, et d’examiner si cette association varie en fonction du sexe. MÉTHODES: Un sous-échantillon de 342 participants de l’Étude sur les habitudes de vie et la santé dans les quartiers montréalais a rapporté ses habitudes de vie et sa situation socio-économique. Des mesures biologiques et anthropométriques ont été recueillies par une infirmière. Le CR a été opérationnalisé en fonction d’une zone-tampon d’un rayon de 250 m centrée sur la résidence de chacun des participants à l’aide d’un Système d’Information Géographique (SIG). Des équations d’estimation généralisées ont été utilisées afin d’estimer l’association entre le CR et l’Indice de Masse Corporelle (IMC) et un score cumulatif de Risque Cardio-métabolique (RC) représentant la présence de valeurs élevées de cholestérol total, de triglycérides, de lipoprotéines de haute densité et d’hémoglobine glyquée. RÉSULTATS: Après ajustement pour l’âge, le sexe, le tabagisme, les comportements de santé et le statut socio-économique, le fait de vivre dans un endroit classé dans le 3e ou 4e quartile de CR était associé avec un IMC plus élevé (beta pour Q4 = 2.1 kg/m2, IC 95%: 1.02-3.20; beta pour Q3 = 1.5 kg/m2, IC 95%: 0.55-2.47) et un taux plus élevé de risque cardiovasculaires Risque Relatif [RR pour Q4 = 1.82 (IC 95 %: 1.35-2.44); RR pour Q3 = 1.66 (IC 95%: 1.33-2.06)] par rapport au 1er quartile. L'interaction entre le sexe et le CR révèle une différence absolue d’IMC de 1.99 kg/m2 (IC 95%: 0.00-4.01) et un risque supérieur (RR=1.39; IC 95%: 1.06-1.81) chez les femmes par rapport aux hommes. CONCLUSIONS: Le taux de chômage dans le milieux résidentiel est associé à un plus grand risque de maladies cardiovasculaires, mais cette association est plus prononcée chez les femmes.

Consumption of black tea and coffee and the risk of lung cancer

Objectif: Étudier l’association entre la consommation de café, la consommation de thé noir et le risque de cancer du poumon. Méthodologie: Cette recherche utilise les données obtenues lors d’une étude cas-témoin effectuée à Montréal avec des résidents canadiens âgés entre 35 et 75 ans recrutés entre 1996 et 2001. Les cas étaient des individus atteints du cancer et diagnostiqués entre 1996 et 1997 dans l’un des 18 hôpitaux de la région du Grand-Montréal. Les contrôles on été sélectionnés à partir de la liste électorale et appariés selon la fréquence de distribution des cas par groupe d’âge de 5 ans, par sexe et par district électoral. Au total, 1130 cas et 1484 contrôles ont été inclus dans cette étude. Les rapports de cote (RC) et les intervalles de confiance de 95% (CI) des associations entre la consommation de thé noir, de café et le cancer du poumon ont été estimés à l’aide de la régression logistique non conditionnelle. Quatre aspects de la consommation ont été analysés dans des modèles multivariés distincts: la fréquence de consommation, la consommation journalière moyenne, la durée de consommation et la consommation cumulative. Les covariables potentielles considérées incluaient : l’âge, le sexe, l’historique de tabagisme, le statut du répondant, l’ethnicité, la consommation d’alcool, la consommation de fruit et de légume, l’apport énergétique journalier, l’exposition a des agents professionnelle et les variables socio-économiques . Des analyses secondaires par le sexe, le tabagisme et le type histologique de cancer on été effectuées. Résultats : Aucune association statistiquement significative n’a été observée entre la consommation de thé noir et le cancer du poumon. Nos résultats suggèrent qu’une consommation de ≥ 50 ans était associée avec une augmentation du risque d’adénocarcinome comparée à aucune consommation. Nous avons observé une association inverse statistiquement significative entre la consommation occasionnelle de café et le cancer du poumon (RC : 0.32, 95%CI : 0.17-0.59). La durée de consommation de café n’était pas associée avec le cancer du poumon. Conclusion : Nos résultats suggèrent que la consommation à long terme de thé noir pourrait augmenter le risque d’adénocarcinome. D’un autre côté, la consommation occasionnelle de café pourrait réduire le risque de cancer du poumon.

Influence de la variété de laitue (Lactuca sativa) sur le puceron (Nasonovia ribisnigri) et le parasitoïde (Aphidius ervi) dans le contexte d’une relation tritrophique

Plusieurs recherches sont effectuées sur la laitue commercialisée (Lactuca sativa L.), afin d’améliorer sa résistance aux ravageurs. L’objectif de cette étude est d’examiner les impacts de la résistance de la laitue sur le puceron de la laitue, Nasonovia ribisnigri (Mosley) (Hemiptera : Aphididae) et son parasitoïde, Aphidius ervi Haliday (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). La résistance de la laitue affecte négativement la valeur adaptative du puceron en augmentant sa mortalité et son temps de développement et en diminuant sa fécondité, sa taille et son poids. Cet impact sur la valeur adaptative du puceron affecte aussi négativement le parasitoïde qui s'y développe en diminuant le pourcentage d’émergence, la taille et le poids des adultes, et en diminuant la fécondité des femelles. La femelle parasitoïde estime de manière absolue la qualité de ses hôtes puisqu’elle peut discriminer entre des hôtes de bonne et de faible qualité, sans expérience préalable. L’acceptation des hôtes de bonne qualité est similaire lorsqu’ils sont présentés successivement à la femelle; l’estimation de la valeur des hôtes est donc adéquate dès la première rencontre. Cependant, cet estimé absolu est modifié par l'expérience, puisque la femelle peut changer son exploitation selon la qualité des agrégats rencontrés. Lorsque des hôtes de basse qualité sont présentés successivement, l’acceptation de la femelle augmente. Accepter des hôtes de mauvaise qualité pour l’oviposition peut être préférable que de risquer de ne pas pondre tous ses œufs. L’utilisation d’une estimation absolue et relative par A. ervi peut mener à une exploitation optimale des agrégats.

Essays in macro finance and monetary economics

Les questions abordées dans les deux premiers articles de ma thèse cherchent à comprendre les facteurs économiques qui affectent la structure à terme des taux d'intérêt et la prime de risque. Je construis des modèles non linéaires d'équilibre général en y intégrant des obligations de différentes échéances. Spécifiquement, le premier article a pour objectif de comprendre la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et le niveau de prime de risque dans un cadre Néo-keynésien d'équilibre général avec incertitude. L'incertitude dans le modèle provient de trois sources : les chocs de productivité, les chocs monétaires et les chocs de préférences. Le modèle comporte deux types de rigidités réelles à savoir la formation des habitudes dans les préférences et les coûts d'ajustement du stock de capital. Le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations à l'ordre deux et calibré à l'économie américaine. Puisque la prime de risque est par nature une compensation pour le risque, l'approximation d'ordre deux implique que la prime de risque est une combinaison linéaire des volatilités des trois chocs. Les résultats montrent qu'avec les paramètres calibrés, les chocs réels (productivité et préférences) jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination du niveau de la prime de risque relativement aux chocs monétaires. Je montre que contrairement aux travaux précédents (dans lesquels le capital de production est fixe), l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque dépend du degré des coûts d'ajustement du capital. Lorsque les coûts d'ajustement du capital sont élevés au point que le stock de capital est fixe à l'équilibre, une augmentation du paramètre de formation des habitudes entraine une augmentation de la prime de risque. Par contre, lorsque les agents peuvent librement ajuster le stock de capital sans coûts, l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est négligeable. Ce résultat s'explique par le fait que lorsque le stock de capital peut être ajusté sans coûts, cela ouvre un canal additionnel de lissage de consommation pour les agents. Par conséquent, l'effet de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est amoindri. En outre, les résultats montrent que la façon dont la banque centrale conduit sa politique monétaire a un effet sur la prime de risque. Plus la banque centrale est agressive vis-à-vis de l'inflation, plus la prime de risque diminue et vice versa. Cela est due au fait que lorsque la banque centrale combat l'inflation cela entraine une baisse de la variance de l'inflation. Par suite, la prime de risque due au risque d'inflation diminue. Dans le deuxième article, je fais une extension du premier article en utilisant des préférences récursives de type Epstein -- Zin et en permettant aux volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de varier avec le temps. L'emploi de ce cadre est motivé par deux raisons. D'abord des études récentes (Doh, 2010, Rudebusch and Swanson, 2012) ont montré que ces préférences sont appropriées pour l'analyse du prix des actifs dans les modèles d'équilibre général. Ensuite, l'hétéroscedasticité est une caractéristique courante des données économiques et financières. Cela implique que contrairement au premier article, l'incertitude varie dans le temps. Le cadre dans cet article est donc plus général et plus réaliste que celui du premier article. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'examiner l'impact des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles sur le niveau et la dynamique des taux d'intérêt et de la prime de risque. Puisque la prime de risque est constante a l'approximation d'ordre deux, le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations avec une approximation d'ordre trois. Ainsi on obtient une prime de risque qui varie dans le temps. L'avantage d'introduire des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles est que cela induit des variables d'état supplémentaires qui apportent une contribution additionnelle à la dynamique de la prime de risque. Je montre que l'approximation d'ordre trois implique que les primes de risque ont une représentation de type ARCH-M (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty in Mean) comme celui introduit par Engle, Lilien et Robins (1987). La différence est que dans ce modèle les paramètres sont structurels et les volatilités sont des volatilités conditionnelles de chocs économiques et non celles des variables elles-mêmes. J'estime les paramètres du modèle par la méthode des moments simulés (SMM) en utilisant des données de l'économie américaine. Les résultats de l'estimation montrent qu'il y a une évidence de volatilité stochastique dans les trois chocs. De plus, la contribution des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs au niveau et à la dynamique de la prime de risque est significative. En particulier, les effets des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de productivité et de préférences sont significatifs. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de productivité contribue positivement aux moyennes et aux écart-types des primes de risque. Ces contributions varient avec la maturité des bonds. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de préférences quant à elle contribue négativement aux moyennes et positivement aux variances des primes de risque. Quant au choc de volatilité de la politique monétaire, son impact sur les primes de risque est négligeable. Le troisième article (coécrit avec Eric Schaling, Alain Kabundi, révisé et resoumis au journal of Economic Modelling) traite de l'hétérogénéité dans la formation des attentes d'inflation de divers groupes économiques et de leur impact sur la politique monétaire en Afrique du sud. La question principale est d'examiner si différents groupes d'agents économiques forment leurs attentes d'inflation de la même façon et s'ils perçoivent de la même façon la politique monétaire de la banque centrale (South African Reserve Bank). Ainsi on spécifie un modèle de prédiction d'inflation qui nous permet de tester l'arrimage des attentes d'inflation à la bande d'inflation cible (3% - 6%) de la banque centrale. Les données utilisées sont des données d'enquête réalisée par la banque centrale auprès de trois groupes d'agents : les analystes financiers, les firmes et les syndicats. On exploite donc la structure de panel des données pour tester l'hétérogénéité dans les attentes d'inflation et déduire leur perception de la politique monétaire. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a évidence d'hétérogénéité dans la manière dont les différents groupes forment leurs attentes. Les attentes des analystes financiers sont arrimées à la bande d'inflation cible alors que celles des firmes et des syndicats ne sont pas arrimées. En effet, les firmes et les syndicats accordent un poids significatif à l'inflation retardée d'une période et leurs prédictions varient avec l'inflation réalisée (retardée). Ce qui dénote un manque de crédibilité parfaite de la banque centrale au vu de ces agents.

Efectos del sistema de multifondos en el Régimen de Ahorro Individual en Colombia

Recientemente, el gobierno nacional radicó un proyecto de reforma financiera en el que se propone flexibilizar la regulación de los Fondos de Pensiones. En particular, se propone que los agentes pueden escoger la composición del portafolio en el que están invertidos sus ahorros pensionales. Para evaluar los posibles efectos de este cambio sobre el bienestar de los agentes, este trabajo analiza las decisiones de inversión de un individuo con función de utilidad con aversión absoluta al riesgo constante (CARA) frente a la Teoría de la diversificación del portafolio. Adicionalmente, se realiza un ejercicio contrafactual con el fin de calcular cual hubiera sido el valor del activo pensional para diferentes individuos si la legislación propuesta por el gobierno hubiera aplicado para el período 1980-2008. Este ejercicio se realiza utilizando información de las Bolsas de Valores de Colombia y la Encuesta de Calidad de Vida 2003 (ECV 2003), siguiendo la metodología de Herscovich (2003) los resultados del análisis teórico sugieren que ante un mayor valor acumulado en las cuentas de pensión, los individuos disminuyen su exposición ante el riesgo en sus portafolios. Así, la composición del portafolio debe estar más concentrada en renta variable para los agentes jóvenes y más concentrada en renta fija para los agentes viejos. Por otro lado, el ejercicio contrafactual, indica que la mejor decisión habría sido invertir todo el portafolio en activos de renta variable. Este contraste en los resultados llama la atención acerca de dos problemas: Primero, es posible que la estrategia que maximiza la utilidad ex-ante de los individuos no sea la misma que maximiza el valor de su pensión. Segundo, el ejercicio presentado parte del supuesto de que no hay información adicional que permita suponer cambios de tendencia o de volatilidad en las rentabilidades de los distintos activos financieros. No obstante, es claro que los especialistas en el mercado financiero cuentan con información suficiente para predecir este tipo de eventos. Por esta razón, el estudio sugiere que el papel de la asesoría financiera a los ahorradores es fundamental para permitir un cambio al sistema multifondos, puesto que el incremento en las opciones de inversión no conduce a un incremento en el bienestar de los individuos en ausencia de información. Adicionalmente, al comparar la evolución de las cuentas de pensión con los porcentajes históricos y con el sistema multifondos, se encuentra un mejor desempeño cuando el porcentaje de inversión en activos de renta variable es mayor que el actual, lo cual sugiere un incremento en la restricción actual de inversión de activos de renta variable para mejorar el desempeño de los fondos.

Efecto de una intervención sobre la carga física durante el proceso de coquización en una empresa de Colombia

Se realizó estudio cuasi experimental con el fin de comparar el efecto sobre la carga física de una intervención tecnológica y en la organización del trabajo en trabajadores en el cargo de horneros en la tarea de extracción de coque en Colombia. Se midió la carga física mediante frecuencia cardiaca e índice de costo cardiaco relativo en una población de trabajadores expuestos (37) y no expuestos (66) a una intervención tecnológica. La monitorización de la frecuencia cardiaca se realizó con 7 pulsímetros Polar RS 800cx debidamente calibrados. Las variables numéricas se describieron con base en la media aritmética, su desviación estándar, y el rango. Para evaluar la diferencia entre las medias de los grupos con respecto a la frecuencia cardiaca en reposo, media, máxima, índice de costo cardiaco relativo, gasto energético de trabajo se aplicó análisis de varianza de una vía. Se estableció a priori un nivel de significación estadística α = 0,05. Se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas en el comportamiento de la frecuencia cardiaca media, frecuencia cardiaca máxima e índice de costo cardiaco relativo, entre los grupos de estudio. Se concluyó que este estudio valida la frecuencia cardiaca como una variable sensible para la medición del riesgo por carga física y a su utilidad en la evaluación intervenciones ergonómica. El estudio demostró que la intervención ergonómica logró controlar la carga física con una disminución significativa la frecuencia cardiaca, en el grupo de intervención.