FIRST PASSAGE APPROXIMATION FOR NORMAL STATIONARY RANDOM PROCESSES.

A new approximate solution for the first passage probability of a stationary Gaussian random process is presented which is based on the estimation of the mean clump size. A simple expression for the mean clump size is derived in terms of the cumulative normal distribution function, which avoids the lengthy numerical integrations which are required by similar existing techniques. The method is applied to a linear oscillator and an ideal bandpass process and good agreement with published results is obtained. By making a slight modification to an existing analysis it is shown that a widely used empirical result for the asymptotic form of the first passage probability can be deduced theoretically.

The use of spatial impulse responses to characterise flexible forming processes with mobile tools

A novel test method for the characterisation of flexible forming processes is proposed and applied to four flexible forming processes: Incremental Sheet Forming (ISF), conventional spinning, the English wheel and power hammer. The proposed method is developed in analogy with time-domain control engineering, where a system is characterised by its impulse response. The spatial impulse response is used to characterise the change in workpiece deformation created by a process, but has also been applied with a strain spectrogram, as a novel way to characterise a process and the physical effect it has on the workpiece. Physical and numerical trials to study the effects of process and material parameters on spatial impulse response lead to three main conclusions. Incremental sheet forming is particularly sensitive to process parameters. The English wheel and power hammer are strongly similar and largely insensitive to both process and material parameters. Spinning develops in two stages and is sensitive to most process parameters, but insensitive to prior deformation. Finally, the proposed method could be applied to modelling, classification of existing and novel processes, product-process matching and closed-loop control of flexible forming processes. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Gaussian processes for fast policy optimisation of POMDP-based dialogue managers

Modelling dialogue as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) enables a dialogue policy robust to speech understanding errors to be learnt. However, a major challenge in POMDP policy learning is to maintain tractability, so the use of approximation is inevitable. We propose applying Gaussian Processes in Reinforcement learning of optimal POMDP dialogue policies, in order (1) to make the learning process faster and (2) to obtain an estimate of the uncertainty of the approximation. We first demonstrate the idea on a simple voice mail dialogue task and then apply this method to a real-world tourist information dialogue task. © 2010 Association for Computational Linguistics.

Exploring consensus mRNA secondary (folding) structure units by stochastic sampling and folding simulation

It is extremely difficult to explore mRNA folding structure by biological experiments. In this report, we use stochastic sampling and folding simulation to test the existence of the stable secondary structural units of-mRNA, look for the folding units, and explore the probabilistic stabilization of the units. Using this method, We made simulations for all possible local optimum secondary structures of a single strand mRNA within a certain range, and searched for the common parts of the secondary structures. The consensus secondary structure units (CSSUs) extracted from the above method are mainly hairpins, with a few single strands. These CSSUs suggest that the mRNA folding units could be relatively stable and could perform specific biological function. The significance of these observations for the mRNA folding problem in general is also discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Additive Gaussian processes

We introduce a Gaussian process model of functions which are additive. An additive function is one which decomposes into a sum of low-dimensional functions, each depending on only a subset of the input variables. Additive GPs generalize both Generalized Additive Models, and the standard GP models which use squared-exponential kernels. Hyperparameter learning in this model can be seen as Bayesian Hierarchical Kernel Learning (HKL). We introduce an expressive but tractable parameterization of the kernel function, which allows efficient evaluation of all input interaction terms, whose number is exponential in the input dimension. The additional structure discoverable by this model results in increased interpretability, as well as state-of-the-art predictive power in regression tasks.

Decentralised minimal-time consensus

This study considers the discrete-time dynamics of a network of agents that exchange information according to the nearest-neighbour protocol under which all agents are guaranteed to reach consensus asymptotically. We present a fully decentralised algorithm that allows any agent to compute the consensus value of the whole network in finite time using only the minimal number of successive values of its own history. We show that this minimal number of steps is related to a Jordan block decomposition of the network dynamics and present an algorithm to obtain the minimal number of steps in question by checking a rank condition on a Hankel matrix of the local observations. Furthermore, we prove that the minimal number of steps is related to other algebraic and graph theoretical notions that can be directly computed from the Laplacian matrix of the graph and from the underlying graph topology. © 2011 IEEE.

Analysis of defect-related localized emission processes in InGaN/GaN-based LEDs

This paper reports an extensive analysis of the defect-related localized emission processes occurring in InGaN/GaN-based light-emitting diodes (LEDs) at low reverse- and forward-bias conditions. The analysis is based on combined electrical characterization and spectrally and spatially resolved electroluminescence (EL) measurements. Results of this analysis show that: (i) under reverse bias, LEDs can emit a weak luminescence signal, which is directly proportional to the injected reverse current. Reverse-bias emission is localized in submicrometer-size spots; the intensity of the signal is strongly correlated to the threading dislocation (TD) density, since TDs are preferential paths for leakage current conduction. (ii) Under low forward-bias conditions, the intensity of the EL signal is not uniform over the device area. Spectrally resolved EL analysis of green LEDs identifies the presence of localized spots emitting at 600 nm (i.e., in the yellow spectral region), whose origin is ascribed to localized tunneling occurring between the quantum wells and the barrier layers of the diodes, with subsequent defect-assisted radiative recombination. The role of defects in determining yellow luminescence is confirmed by the high activation energy of the thermal quenching of yellow emission (Ea =0.64&eV). © 2012 IEEE.

Paradoxical evidence integration in rapid decision processes

Decisions about noisy stimuli require evidence integration over time. Traditionally, evidence integration and decision making are described as a one-stage process: a decision is made when evidence for the presence of a stimulus crosses a threshold. Here, we show that one-stage models cannot explain psychophysical experiments on feature fusion, where two visual stimuli are presented in rapid succession. Paradoxically, the second stimulus biases decisions more strongly than the first one, contrary to predictions of one-stage models and intuition. We present a two-stage model where sensory information is integrated and buffered before it is fed into a drift diffusion process. The model is tested in a series of psychophysical experiments and explains both accuracy and reaction time distributions. © 2012 Rüter et al.

State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes

State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. Copyright 2010 by the authors.

Robust filtering and smoothing with gaussian processes

We propose a principled algorithm for robust Bayesian filtering and smoothing in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems when both the transition function and the measurement function are described by non-parametric Gaussian process (GP) models. GPs are gaining increasing importance in signal processing, machine learning, robotics, and control for representing unknown system functions by posterior probability distributions. This modern way of system identification is more robust than finding point estimates of a parametric function representation. Our principled filtering/smoothing approach for GP dynamic systems is based on analytic moment matching in the context of the forward-backward algorithm. Our numerical evaluations demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach in situations where other state-of-the-art Gaussian filters and smoothers can fail. © 2011 IEEE.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes with continuous observations for dialogue management

This work shows how a dialogue model can be represented as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) with observations composed of a discrete and continuous component. The continuous component enables the model to directly incorporate a confidence score for automated planning. Using a testbed simulated dialogue management problem, we show how recent optimization techniques are able to find a policy for this continuous POMDP which outperforms a traditional MDP approach. Further, we present a method for automatically improving handcrafted dialogue managers by incorporating POMDP belief state monitoring, including confidence score information. Experiments on the testbed system show significant improvements for several example handcrafted dialogue managers across a range of operating conditions.