861 resultados para Conditional and Unconditional Interval Estimator
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In the spirit of previous work in the compliance literature (e.g., tax, littering), we investigate whether environmental social norms affect volunteering in environmental organizations. Using two ‘environmental morale’ variables as indirect measures, we analyze the impact of social norms on the incidence of unpaid work in environmental organizations. In addition, we test whether violation of a specific environmental norm initiates a conditional cooperation response. We explore a large individual data set covering 32 countries from both Western and Eastern Europe, and extend the number of countries investigated to test the robustness of the relationship at the macro level. Our results indicate a strong positive relationship between the proxies for environmental social norms and volunteering in environmental organizations. The relationship persists despite our various robustness checks.
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The ability to forecast machinery health is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models which attempt to forecast machinery health based on condition data such as vibration measurements. This paper demonstrates how the population characteristics and condition monitoring data (both complete and suspended) of historical items can be integrated for training an intelligent agent to predict asset health multiple steps ahead. The model consists of a feed-forward neural network whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan–Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density function estimator. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival probabilities when a series of asset condition readings are inputted. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. Pump data from a pulp and paper mill were used for model validation and comparison. The results indicate that the proposed model can predict more accurately as well as further ahead than similar models which neglect population characteristics and suspended data. This work presents a compelling concept for longer-range fault prognosis utilising available information more fully and accurately.
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Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common genetic variants associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCa), but these explain less than one-third of the heritability. To identify further susceptibility alleles, we conducted a meta-analysis of four GWAS including 5953 cases of aggressive PrCa and 11 463 controls (men without PrCa). We computed association tests for approximately 2.6 million SNPs and followed up the most significant SNPs by genotyping 49 121 samples in 29 studies through the international PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. We not only confirmed the association of a PrCa susceptibility locus, rs11672691 on chromosome 19, but also showed an association with aggressive PrCa [odds ratio = 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21), P = 1.4 × 10(-8)]. This report describes a genetic variant which is associated with aggressive PrCa, which is a type of PrCa associated with a poorer prognosis.
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Objective: To compare access and utilisation of EDs in Queensland public hospitals between people who speak only English at home and those who speak another language at home. Methods: A retrospective analysis of a Queensland statewide hospital ED dataset (ED Information System) from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 was conducted. Access to ED care was measured by the proportion of the state’s population attending EDs. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the relationships between ambulance use and language, and between hospital admission and language, both after adjusting for age, sex and triage category. Results: The ED utilisation rate was highest in English only speakers (290 per 1000 population), followed by Arabic speakers (105), and lowest among German speakers (30). Compared with English speakers, there were lower rates of ambulance use in Chinese (odds ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval, 0.47–0.54), Vietnamese (0.87, 0.79–0.95), Arabic (0.87, 0.78–0.97), Spanish (0.56, 0.50–0.62), Italian (0.88, 0.80–0.96), Hindi (0.61, 0.53–0.70) and German (0.87, 0.79–0.90) speakers. Compared with English speakers, German speakers had higher admission rates (odds ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.34), whereas there were lower admission rates in Chinese (0.90, 0.86–0.99), Arabic (0.76, 0.67–0.85) and Spanish (0.83, 0.75–0.93) speakers. Conclusion: This study showed that there was a significant association between lower utilisation of emergency care and speaking languages other than English at home. Further researches are needed using in-depth methodology to investigate if there are language barriers in accessing emergency care in Queensland.
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OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) accreditation and hospital care practices on breastfeeding rates at 1 and 4 months. METHODS: All women who birthed in Queensland, Australia, from February 1 to May 31, 2010, received a survey 4 months postpartum. Maternal, infant, and hospital characteristics; pregnancy and birth complications; and infant feeding outcomes were measured. RESULTS: Sample size was 6752 women. Breastfeeding initiation rates were high (96%) and similar in BFHI-accredited and nonaccredited hospitals. After adjustment for significant maternal, infant, clinical, and hospital variables, women who birthed in BFHI-accredited hospitals had significantly lower odds of breastfeeding at 1 month (adjusted odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.58–0.90) than those who birthed in non–BFHI-accredited hospitals. BFHI accreditation did not affect the odds of breastfeeding at 4 months or exclusive breastfeeding at 1 or 4 months. Four in-hospital practices (early skin-to-skin contact, attempted breastfeeding within the first hour, rooming-in, and no in-hospital supplementation) were experienced by 70% to 80% of mothers, with 50.3% experiencing all 4. Women who experienced all 4 hospital practices had higher odds of breastfeeding at 1 month (adjusted odds ratio 2.20, 95% confidence interval 1.78–2.71) and 4 months (adjusted odds ratio 2.93, 95% confidence interval 2.40–3.60) than women who experienced fewer than 4. CONCLUSIONS: When breastfeeding-initiation rates are high and evidence-based practices that support breastfeeding are common within the hospital environment, BFHI accreditation per se has little effect on both exclusive or any breastfeeding rates.C
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OBJECTIVES: Ecological studies have suggested an inverse relationship between latitude and risks of some cancers. However, associations between solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and esophageal cancer risk have not been fully explored. We therefore investigated the association between nevi, freckles, and measures of ambient UVR over the life-course with risks of esophageal cancers. METHODS: We compared estimated lifetime residential ambient UVR among Australian patients with esophageal cancer (330 esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), 386 esophago-gastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC), and 279 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC)), and 1471 population controls. We asked people where they had lived at different periods of their life, and assigned ambient UVR to each location based on measurements from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer database. Freckling and nevus burden were self-reported. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the magnitude of associations between phenotype, ambient UVR, and esophageal cancer risk. RESULTS: Compared with population controls, patients with EAC and EGJAC were less likely to have high levels of estimated cumulative lifetime ambient UVR (EAC odds ratio (OR) 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.99, EGJAC OR 0.55, 0.34-0.90). We found no association between UVR and risk of ESCC (OR 0.91, 0.51-1.64). The associations were independent of age, sex, body mass index, education, state of recruitment, frequency of reflux, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and H. pylori serostatus. Cases with EAC were also significantly less likely to report high levels of nevi than controls. CONCLUSIONS: These data show an inverse association between ambient solar UVR at residential locations and risk of EAC and EGJAC, but not ESCC.
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BACKGROUND: Hot and cold temperatures have been associated with childhood asthma. However, the relationship between daily temperature variation and childhood asthma is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and childhood asthma. METHODS: A Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between DTR and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, from January 1st 2003 to December 31st 2009. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood asthma. The DTR effect on childhood asthma increased above a DTR of 10[degree sign]C. The effect of DTR on childhood asthma was the greatest for lag 0--9 days, with a 31% (95% confidence interval: 11% -- 58%) increase of emergency department admissions per 5[degree sign]C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 5--9 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect than others. CONCLUSIONS: Large DTR may trigger childhood asthma. Future measures to control and prevent childhood asthma should include taking temperature variability into account. More protective measures should be taken after a day of DTR above10[degree sign]C.
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Objective: To examine the association between individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage and self-reported arthritis. Methods: We used data from a population-based cross-sectional study conducted in 2007 among 10,757 men and women ages 40–65 years, selected from 200 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia using a stratified 2-stage cluster design. Data were collected using a mail survey (68.5% response). Neighborhood disadvantage was measured using a census-based composite index, and individual disadvantage was measured using self-reported education, household income, and occupation. Arthritis was indicated by self-report. Data were analyzed using multilevel modeling. Results: The overall rate of self-reported arthritis was 23% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 22–24). After adjustment for sociodemographic factors, arthritis prevalence was greatest for women (odds ratio [OR] 1.5, 95% CI 1.4–1.7) and in those ages 60–65 years (OR 4.4, 95% CI 3.7–5.2), those with a diploma/associate diploma (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.6), those who were permanently unable to work (OR 4.0, 95% CI 3.1–5.3), and those with a household income <$25,999 (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7–2.6). Independent of individual-level factors, residents of the most disadvantaged neighborhoods were 42% (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.7) more likely than those in the least disadvantaged neighborhoods to self-report arthritis. Cross-level interactions between neighborhood disadvantage and education, occupation, and household income were not significant. Conclusion: Arthritis prevalence is greater in more socially disadvantaged neighborhoods. These are the first multilevel data to examine the relationship between individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage upon arthritis and have important implications for policy, health promotion, and other intervention strategies designed to reduce the rates of arthritis, indicating that intervention efforts may need to focus on both people and places.
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The Capacity to Share is the first book to document how Cubans share their highly developed educational services with other low-income states, especially those in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. A variety of international and Cuban authors break new ground in presenting this research. They investigate the experiences of people who have studied in Cuba on scholarships from the Cuban government, the implications for their home countries, and the work of Cuban teachers and administrators to support education in other countries. The authors discuss how the Cuban "solidarity" approach prioritizes global educational cooperation for mutual support, rather than imposing conditional aid. The book offers original and unusual insights into issues of culture, education, aid, development, and change as they relate to low-income states.
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utomatic pain monitoring has the potential to greatly improve patient diagnosis and outcomes by providing a continuous objective measure. One of the most promising methods is to do this via automatically detecting facial expressions. However, current approaches have failed due to their inability to: 1) integrate the rigid and non-rigid head motion into a single feature representation, and 2) incorporate the salient temporal patterns into the classification stage. In this paper, we tackle the first problem by developing a “histogram of facial action units” representation using Active Appearance Model (AAM) face features, and then utilize a Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) to overcome the second issue. We show that both of these methods improve the performance on the task of pain detection in sequence level compared to current state-of-the-art-methods on the UNBC-McMaster Shoulder Pain Archive.
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Immigration has played an important role in the historical development of Australia. Thus, it is no surprise that a large body of empirical work has developed, which focuses upon how migrants fare in the land of opportunity. Much of the literature is comparatively recent, i.e. the last ten years or so, encouraged by the advent of public availability of Australian crosssection micro data. Several different aspects of migrant welfare have been addressed, with major emphasis being placed upon earnings and unemployment experience. For recent examples see Haig (1980), Stromback (1984), Chiswick and Miller (1985), Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) and Beggs and Chapman (1988). The present paper contributes to the literature by providing additional empirical evidence on the native/migrant earnings differential. The data utilised are from the rather neglected Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS Special Supplementary Survey No.4. 1982, otherwise known as the Family Survey. The paper also examines the importance of distinguishing between the wage and salary sector and the self-employment sector when discussing native/migrant differentials. Separate earnings equations for the two labour market groups are estimated and the native/migrant earnings differential is broken down by employment status. This is a novel application in the Australian context and provides some insight into the earnings of the selfemployed, a group that despite its size (around 20 per cent of the labour force) is frequently ignored by economic research. Most previous empirical research fails to examine the effect of employment status on earnings. Stromback (1984) includes a dummy variable representing self-employment status in an earnings equation estimated over a pooled sample of paid and self-employed workers. The variable is found to be highly significant, which leads Stromback to question the efficacy of including the self-employed in the estimation sample. The suggestion is that part of self-employed earnings represent a return to non-human capital investment, i.e. investments in machinery, buildings etc, the structural determinants of earnings differ significantly from those for paid employees. Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) deal with differences between paid employees and the selfemployed by deleting the latter from their sample. However, deleting the self-employed from the estimation sample may lead to bias in the OLS estimation method (see Heckman 1979). The desirable properties of OLS are dependent upon estimation on a random sample. Thus, the 'Ran-Nam and Nevile results are likely to suffer from bias unless individuals are randomly allocated between self-employment and paid employment. The current analysis extends Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) by explicitly treating the choice of paid employment versus self-employment as being endogenously determined. This allows an explicit test for the appropriateness of deleting self-employed workers from the sample. Earnings equations that are corrected for sample selection are estimated for both natives and migrants in the paid employee sector. The Heckman (1979) two-step estimator is employed. The paper is divided into five major sections. The next section presents the econometric model incorporating the specification of the earnings generating process together with an explicit model determining an individual's employment status. In Section 111 the data are described. Section IV draws together the main econometric results of the paper. First, the probit estimates of the labour market status equation are documented. This is followed by presentation and discussion of the Heckman two-stage estimates of the earnings specification for both native and migrant Australians. Separate earnings equations are estimated for paid employees and the self-employed. Section V documents estimates of the nativelmigrant earnings differential for both categories of employees. To aid comparison with earlier work, the Oaxaca decomposition of the earnings differential for paid-employees is carried out for both the simple OLS regression results as well as the parameter estimates corrected for sample selection effects. These differentials are interpreted and compared with previous Australian findings. A short section concludes the paper.
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Vitamin D may have anti-skin cancer effects, but population-based evidence is lacking. We therefore assessed associations between vitamin D status and skin cancer risk in an Australian subtropical community. We analyzed prospective skin cancer incidence for 11 years following baseline assessment of serum 25(OH)-vitamin D in 1,191 adults (average age 54 years) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust risk estimates for age, sex, detailed assessments of usual time spent outdoors, phenotypic characteristics, and other possible confounders. Participants with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol l(-1) versus those below 75 nmol l(-1) more often developed basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.07, P=0.01) and melanoma (OR=2.71 (95% CI: 0.98-7.48, P=0.05)). Squamous cell carcinoma incidence tended to be lower in persons with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol l(-1) compared with those below 75 nmol l(-1) (OR=0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-1.03, P=0.07)). Vitamin D status was not associated with skin cancer incidence when participants were classified as above or below 50 nmol l(-1) 25(OH)-vitamin D. Our findings do not indicate that the carcinogenicity of high sun exposure can be counteracted by high vitamin D status. High sun exposure is to be avoided as a means to achieve high vitamin D status.
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The construction industry contains two types of estimators the contractors' estimator and the designers' price forecaster. Each has two models of the building in which to systemize his procedures - the production model and the design model. The use of these models is discussed in the light of the industry's particular problems of complexity and uncertainty together with the pressures of the market. It is argued that estimators and forecasters, in order to function effectively in these conditions, are forced to exercise a high degree of subjective judgment. Means of eliciting good heuristics involved in judgment making are considered by reference to the artificial intelligence and construction literature and a methodology is proposed based on these findings. The results of two early trials of the method with students are given, indicating the usefulness of the approach.
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The purpose of the present study was to examine the influence of 3 different high-intensity interval training regimens on the first and second ventilatory thresholds (VT1 and VT2), anaerobic capacity (ANC), and plasma volume (PV) in well-trained endurance cyclists. Before and after 2 and 4 weeks of training, 38 well-trained cyclists (VO2peak = 64.5 +/- 5.2 ml[middle dot]kg-1[middle dot]min-1) performed (a) a progressive cycle test to measure VO2peak, peak power output (PPO), VT1, and VT2; (b) a time to exhaustion test (Tmax) at their VO2peak power output (Pmax); and (c) a 40-km time-trial (TT40). Subjects were assigned to 1 of 4 training groups (group 1: n = 8, 8 3 60% Tmax at Pmax, 1:2 work-recovery ratio; group 2: n = 9, 8 x 60% Tmax at Pmax, recovery at 65% maximum heart rate; group 3: n = 10, 12 x 30 seconds at 175% PPO, 4.5-minute recovery; control group: n = 11). The TT40 performance, VO2peak, VT1,VT2, and ANC were all significantly increased in groups 1, 2, and 3 (p < 0.05) but not in the control group. However, PV did not change in response to the 4-week training program. Changes in TT40 performance were modestly related to the changes in VO2peak, VT1, VT2, and ANC (r = 0.41, 0.34, 0.42, and 0.40, respectively; all p < 0.05). In conclusion, the improvements in TT40 performance were related to significant increases in VO2peak, VT1,VT2, and ANC but were not accompanied by significant changes in PV. Thus, peripheral adaptations rather than central adaptations are likely responsible for the improved performances witnessed in well-trained endurance athletes following various forms of high-intensity interval training programs.
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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of three different high-intensity interval training (HIT) regimens on endurance performance in highly trained endurance athletes. METHODS: Before, and after 2 and 4 wk of training, 38 cyclists and triathletes (mean +/- SD; age = 25 +/- 6 yr; mass = 75 +/- 7 kg; VO(2peak) = 64.5 +/- 5.2 mL x kg(-1) min(-1)) performed: 1) a progressive cycle test to measure peak oxygen consumption (VO(2peak)) and peak aerobic power output (PPO), 2) a time to exhaustion test (T(max)) at their VO(2peak) power output (P(max)), as well as 3) a 40-km time-trial (TT(40)). Subjects were matched and assigned to one of four training groups (G(2), N = 8, 8 x 60% T(max) at P(max), 1:2 work:recovery ratio; G(2), N = 9, 8 x 60% T(max) at P(max), recovery at 65% HR(max); G(3), N = 10, 12 x 30 s at 175% PPO, 4.5-min recovery; G(CON), N = 11). In addition to G(1), G(2), and G(3) performing HIT twice per week, all athletes maintained their regular low-intensity training throughout the experimental period. RESULTS: All HIT groups improved TT(40) performance (+4.4 to +5.8%) and PPO (+3.0 to +6.2%) significantly more than G(CON) (-0.9 to +1.1%; P < 0.05). Furthermore, G(1) (+5.4%) and G(2) (+8.1%) improved their VO(2peak) significantly more than G(CON) (+1.0%; P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The present study has shown that when HIT incorporates P(max) as the interval intensity and 60% of T(max) as the interval duration, already highly trained cyclists can significantly improve their 40-km time trial performance. Moreover, the present data confirm prior research, in that repeated supramaximal HIT can significantly improve 40-km time trial performance.