Life cycle complexity, environmental change and the emerging status of salmonid proliferative kidney disease

P>1. Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is a disease of salmonid fish caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan, Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which uses freshwater bryozoans as primary hosts. Clinical PKD is characterised by a temperature-dependent proliferative and inflammatory response to parasite stages in the kidney.;2. Evidence that PKD is an emerging disease includes outbreaks in new regions, declines in Swiss brown trout populations and the adoption of expensive practices by fish farms to reduce heavy losses. Disease-related mortality in wild fish populations is almost certainly underestimated because of e.g. oversight, scavenging by wild animals, misdiagnosis and fish stocking.;3. PKD prevalences are spatially and temporally variable, range from 0 to 90-100% and are typically highest in juvenile fish.;4. Laboratory and field studies demonstrate that (i) increasing temperatures enhance disease prevalence, severity and distribution and PKD-related mortality; (ii) eutrophication may promote outbreaks. Both bryozoans and T. bryosalmonae stages in bryozoans undergo temperature- and nutrient-driven proliferation.;5. Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae is likely to achieve persistent infection of highly clonal bryozoan hosts through vertical transmission, low virulence and host condition-dependent cycling between covert and overt infections. Exploitation of fish hosts entails massive proliferation and spore production by stages that escape the immune response. Many aspects of the parasite's life cycle remain obscure. If infectious stages are produced in all hosts then the complex life cycle includes multiple transmission routes.;6. Patterns of disease outbreaks suggest that background, subclinical infections exist under normal environmental conditions. When conditions change, outbreaks may then occur in regions where infection was hitherto unsuspected.;7. Environmental change is likely to cause PKD outbreaks in more northerly regions as warmer temperatures promote disease development, enhance bryozoan biomass and increase spore production, but may also reduce the geographical range of this unique multihost-parasite system. Coevolutionary dynamics resulting from host-parasite interactions that maximise fitness in previous environments may pose problems for sustainability, particularly in view of extensive declines in salmonid populations and degradation of many freshwater habitats.

Behavioral Economics and Physician Behavior

This study seeks to answer whether the availability heuristic leads physicians to utilize more medical care than is economically efficient. Do rare, salient events alter physicians' perceptions about the probability of patient harm? Do these events lead physicians to overutilize certain medical procedures? This study uses Pennsylvania inpatient hospital admissions data from 2009 aggregated at the physician level to investigate these questions. The data come from the 2009 Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council (PHC4). The study is divided into two parts. In Part I, we examine whether bad outcomes during childbirth (defined as maternal mortality, an obstetric fistula or a uterine rupture) lead physicians to utilize more cesarean sections on future patients. In Part II, we examine whether bad outcomes associated with appendicitis (defined as patient death, a perforated or ruptured appendix or sepsis) lead physicians to perform more negative appendectomies (appendectomies performed when the patient did not have appendicitis) on future patients. Overall the study does not find evidence to support the claim that the availability heuristic leads physicians to overutilize medical care on future patients. However, the study does find evidence that variations in health care utilization are strongly correlated with individual physician practice patterns. The results of the study also imply that physicians' financial incentives may be a source of variation in health care utilization.

The Intersection of Economics and Politics in a Small OPEC Country: the Case of Ecuador, 1990 - March 2014

Today, crude oil remains a vital resource all around the world. This non-renewable resource powers countries worldwide. Besides serving as an energy source, crude oil is also the most important component for different world economies, especially in developing countries. Ecuador, a small member of the OPEC oil cartel, presents a case where its economy is oil dependent. A great percentage of the country¿s GDP and government¿s budget comes from oil revenues. Ecuador has always been a primary exporter of raw materials. In the last centuries, the country experienced three important economic booms: cacao, bananas, and, ultimately, crude oil. In this sense, the country has not been able to fully industrialize and begin to export manufactured goods, i.e., Ecuador suffers from the Dutch disease. The latter has deterred Ecuador from achieving broad-based economic development. Given crude oil¿s importance for the Ecuadorian economy, the government has always tried to influence the oil industry in search of profits and benefits. Therefore, this thesis, explores the question: how and to what extent have political interventions affected the oil industry in Ecuador from 1990 until March 2014? In general, this thesis establishes an economic history context during the last twenty-four years, attempting to research how political interventions have shaped Ecuador¿s oil industry and economy. In the analysis, it covers a period where political instability prevailed, until Rafael Correa became president. The thesis examines Ecuador¿s participation in OPEC, trying to find explanations as to why the country voluntarily left the organization in 1992, only to rejoin in 2007 when Correa rose to power. During the ¿Revolución Ciudadana¿ period, the thesis researches reforms to the Law of Hydrocarbons, variations in the relations with other nations, the controversy surrounding the Yasuní-ITT oil block, and the ¿Refinería del Pacífico¿ construction. The thesis is an Industrial Organization detailed case study that analyzes, updates, and evaluates the intersection of economics and politics in Ecuador¿s crude oil industry during the last 24 years. In this sense I have consulted past theses, newspaper articles, books, and other published data about the petroleum industry, both from a global and Ecuadorian perspective. In addition to published sources, I was able to interview sociologists, public figures, history and economics academics, and other experts, accessing unique unpublished data about Ecuador¿s oil industry. I made an effort to collect information that shows the private and public side of the industry, i.e., from government-related and independent sources. I attempted to remain as objective as possible to make conclusions about the appropriate Industrial Organization policy for Ecuador¿s oil industry, addressing the issue from an economic, social, political, and environmental point of view. I found how Ecuador¿s political instability caused public policy to fail, molding the conduct and market structure of the crude oil industry. Throughout history, developed nations have benefited from low oil prices, but things shifted since oil prices began to rise, which is more beneficial for the developing nations that actually possess and produce the raw material. Nevertheless, Ecuador, a victim of the Dutch disease due to its heavy reliance on crude oil as a primary product, has not achieved broad-based development.

The Complexity of Quest in Emerging Adults' Religiosity, Well-Being, and Identity

A growing body of literature indicates a modestly positive association between religiosity and spirituality as predictors of psychological health (anxiety and depression), suggesting they serve as personal resiliency factors. The purpose of this study was to expand our understanding of the relationships among these constructs. Using Lazarus's Transactional Model of Stress as a theoretical framework, we examined: (a) the extent to which spirituality and religiosity mediated and/or moderated the association between perceived stress and psychological health and (b) whether there was a moderated (religiosity) mediation (spirituality) between stress and health. The Perceived Stress Scale, Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale, Religious Commitment Inventory, and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale were administered to measure the following constructs: stress, spirituality, religiosity, and psychological health. This study utilized a nonexperimental, quantitative, correlational, cross-sectional, moderated-mediation design, and included a convenience sample of 331 research participants. Both spirituality and religiosity moderated stress and health. However, only spirituality partially mediated the relationship. In addition, religiosity did not moderate the mediating effects of spirituality. Overall, this study confirmed the role of both religiosity and spirituality as effective resiliency resources.

How Do We Teach Economics?

The teaching of economics in Hungary has changed fundamentally since the 1980s for two main reasons. Firstly, the transformation towards a market economy has changed the needs of students, and secondly, there has been a move to harmonise Hungarian methods of teaching with Western ones. The number of institutions involved in economics education has increased substantially to meet new demand and these institutions offer a wide range of programs, though the topics covered tend to be more practically based than previously. A survey of students set out to evaluate economics as a profession by investigating social esteem, financial compensation, career prospects, and mobility within the profession. Amongst full-time students there was a strong correlation between the parents' background and the students' career prospects. Full-time students were more optimistic than part-time students, although the latter had a higher opinion of the academic level of their educational establishments. A second survey, this time of economics teachers, revealed the disturbing fact that teachers rated themselves in the last but one position according to social esteem and felt that society had a poor opinion of them. Fifty percent expressed a desire to leave the profession and 70% supplemented their income with work outside their school, rarely within the domain of economics. The final part of the research analysed the situation in private educational institutions, nothing that unemployment retraining grants offered by the Ministry of Labour have created an incentive for private entrepreneurs to organise courses and that the quality of these courses varies considerably.

Lower complexity bounds in justification logic

Justification Logic studies epistemic and provability phenomena by introducing justifications/proofs into the language in the form of justification terms. Pure justification logics serve as counterparts of traditional modal epistemic logics, and hybrid logics combine epistemic modalities with justification terms. The computational complexity of pure justification logics is typically lower than that of the corresponding modal logics. Moreover, the so-called reflected fragments, which still contain complete information about the respective justification logics, are known to be in~NP for a wide range of justification logics, pure and hybrid alike. This paper shows that, under reasonable additional restrictions, these reflected fragments are NP-complete, thereby proving a matching lower bound. The proof method is then extended to provide a uniform proof that the corresponding full pure justification logics are $\Pi^p_2$-hard, reproving and generalizing an earlier result by Milnikel.

Implications of Transdisciplinarity for Sustainability Research

In ecological economics the terms sustainable development and transdisciplinarity are closely related. It is shown that this close relation is due to the fact that research for sustainable development has to be issue oriented and reflect the diversity, complexity and dynamics of the processes involved as well as their variability between specific problem situations. Furthermore, the knowledge of people involved and their needs and interests at stake have to be taken into account. There are three basic and interrelated questions about issues to be addressed in sustainability research: (1) In which way do processes constitute a problem field and where are the needs for change? (2) What are more sustainable practices? (3) How can existing practices be transformed? To treat them properly, transdisciplinary research is needed. The emergence of transdisciplinary research in the North and the South is described. By distinguishing analytically among basic, applied and transdisciplinary research the challenges that have to be tackled in transdisciplinary projects are analyzed.

Can OBAMA win Re-election? Demographics vs. Economics in the 2012 Election

Lincoln famously spoke of government “of the people, by the p eople, and for the people.” But who, exactly, are “the people”? Which demographic characteristics are the most politically significant? And who will actually turn out to vote? Dr. Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress, will consider these questions against the backdrop of this year’s presidential campaign.