Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

Agent-Based Hybrid Intelligent Systems: An Agent-Based Framework for Complex Problem Solving

Pt. I. Fundamentals of hybrid intelligent systems and agents -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Basics of hybrid intelligent systems -- 3. Basics of agents and multi-agent systems -- Pt. II. Methodology and framework -- 4. Agent-oriented methodologies -- 5. Agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent systems --6. Matchmaking in middle agents -- Pt. III. Application systems -- 7. Agent-based hybrid intelligent system for financial investment
planning -- 8. Agent-based hybrid intelligent system for data mining -- Pt. IV. Concluding remarks -- 9. The less the more -- App. Sample source codes of the agent-based financial planning system

Design of experiments and springback prediction for AHSS automotive components with complex geometry

With the drive towards implementing Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS) in the automotive industry; stamping engineers need to quickly answer questions about forming these strong materials into elaborate shapes.
Commercially available codes have been successfully used to accurately predict formability, thickness and strains in complex parts. However, springback and twisting are still challenging subjects in numerical simulations of AHSS components. Design of Experiments (DOE) has been used in this paper to study the sensitivity of the implicit and explicit numerical results with respect to certain arrays ofuser input parameters in the forming ofan AHSS component. Numerical results were compared to experimental measurements of the parts stamped in an industrial production line. The forming predictions of the implicit and explicit codes were in good agreement with the experimental measurements for the conventional steel grade, while lower accuracies were observed for the springback predictions. The forming
predictions of the complex component with an AHSS material were also in good correlation with the respective experimental measurements. However, much lower accuracies were observed in its springback predictions. The number of integration points through the thickness and tool offset were found to be of significant importance, while coefficient of friction and Young's modulus (modeling input parameters) have no significant effect on the accuracy of the predictions for the complex geometry.

Robust functional estimation and fault diagnosis for complex uncertain systems

System monitoring and fault diagnosis capabilities are the most important aspects in improving safety and reliability of automatic control systems. This research proposed new methodologies on fault diagnosis and estimation for complex uncertain systems. As a result of this research, complex industrial plants can now be more effectively controlled.

Comparison of automated candidate gene prediction systems using genes implicated in type 2 diabetes by genome-wide association studies

Background
Automated candidate gene prediction systems allow geneticists to hone in on disease genes more rapidly by identifying the most probable candidate genes linked to the disease phenotypes under investigation. Here we assessed the ability of eight different candidate gene prediction systems to predict disease genes in intervals previously associated with type 2 diabetes by benchmarking their performance against genes implicated by recent genome-wide association studies.

Results
Using a search space of 9556 genes, all but one of the systems pruned the genome in favour of genes associated with moderate to highly significant SNPs. Of the 11 genes associated with highly significant SNPs identified by the genome-wide association studies, eight were flagged as likely candidates by at least one of the prediction systems. A list of candidates produced by a previous consensus approach did not match any of the genes implicated by 706 moderate to highly significant SNPs flagged by the genome-wide association studies. We prioritized genes associated with medium significance SNPs.

Conclusion
The study appraises the relative success of several candidate gene prediction systems against independent genetic data. Even when confronted with challengingly large intervals, the candidate gene prediction systems can successfully select likely disease genes. Furthermore, they can be used to filter statistically less-well-supported genetic data to select more likely candidates. We suggest consensus approaches fail because they penalize novel predictions made from independent underlying databases. To realize their full potential further work needs to be done on prioritization and annotation of genes.

Prediction of chlorine and THMs concentration profile in bulk drinking water distribution systems from laboratory data

Nearly all drinking water distribution systems experience a "natural" reduction of disinfection residuals. The most frequently used disinfectant is chlorine, which can decay due to reactions with organic and inorganic compounds in the water and by liquid/solids reaction with the biofilm, pipe walls and sediments. Usually levels of 0.2-0.5 mg/L of free chlorine are required at the point of consumption to maintain bacteriological safety. Higher concentrations are not desirable as they present the problems of taste and odour and increase formation of disinfection by-products. It is usually a considerable concern for the operators of drinking water distribution systems to manage chlorine residuals at the "optimum level", considering all these issues. This paper describes how the chlorine profile in a drinking water distribution system can be modelled and optimised on the basis of readily and inexpensively available laboratory data. Methods are presented for deriving the laboratory data, fitting a chlorine decay model of bulk water to the data and applying the model, in conjunction with a simplified hydraulic model, to obtain the chlorine profile in a distribution system at steady flow conditions. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the utility of the technique. Melbourne's Greenvale-Sydenham distribution system is unfiltered and uses chlorination as its only treatment. The chlorine model developed from laboratory data was applied to the whole system and the chlorine profile was shown to be accurately simulated. Biofilm was not found to critically affect chlorine decay. In the other case study, Sydney Water's Nepean system was modelled from limited hydraulic data. Chlorine decay and trihalomethane (THM) formation in raw and treated water were measured in a laboratory, and a chlorine decay and THM model was derived on the basis of these data. Simulated chlorine and THM profiles agree well with the measured values available. Various applications of this modelling approach are also briefly discussed.

Prediction of chlorine and trihalomethanes concentration profile in bulk drinking water distribution systems from laboratory data

Nearly all drinking water distribution systems experience a "natural" reduction of disinfection residuals. The most frequently used disinfectant is chlorine, which can decay due to reactions with organic and inorganic compounds in the water and by liquid/solids reaction with the biofilm, pipe walls and sediments. Usually levels of 0.2-0.5 mg/L of free chlorine are required at the point of consumption to maintain bacteriological safety. Higher concentrations are not desirable as they present the problems of taste and odour and increase formation of disinfection by-products. It is usually a considerable concern for the operators of drinking water distribution systems to manage chlorine residuals at the "optimum level", considering all these issues. This paper describes how the chlorine profile in a drinking water distribution system can be modelled and optimised on the basis of readily and inexpensively available laboratory data. Methods are presented for deriving the laboratory data, fitting a chlorine decay model of bulk water to the data and applying the model, in conjunction with a simplified hydraulic model, to obtain the chlorine profile in a distribution system at steady flow conditions. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the utility of the technique. Melbourne's Greenvale-Sydenham distribution system is unfiltered and uses chlorination as its only treatment. The chlorine model developed from laboratory data was applied to the whole system and the chlorine profile was shown to be accurately simulated. Biofilm was not found to critically affect chlorine decay. In the other case study, Sydney Water's Nepean system was modelled from limited hydraulic data. Chlorine decay and trihalomethane (THM) formation in raw and treated water were measured in a laboratory, and a chlorine decay and THM model was derived on the basis of these data. Simulated chlorine and THM profiles agree well with the measured values available. Various applications of this modelling approach are also briefly discussed.

Recognising and monitoring high-level behaviours in complex spatial environments

The recognition of activities from sensory data is important in advanced surveillance systems to enable prediction of high-level goals and intentions of the target under surveillance. The problem is complicated by sensory noise and complex activity spanning large spatial and temporal extents. This paper presents a system for recognising high-level human activities from multi-camera video data in complex spatial environments. The Abstract Hidden Markov mEmory Model (AHMEM) is used to deal with noise and scalability The AHMEM is an extension of the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM) that allows us to represent a richer class of both state-dependent and context-free behaviours. The model also supports integration with low-level sensory models and efficient probabilistic inference. We present experimental results showing the ability of the system to perform real-time monitoring and recognition of complex behaviours of people from observing their trajectories within a real, complex indoor environment.