Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

A Pseudolikelihood Approach for Simultaneous Analysis of Array Comparative Genomic Hybridizations (aCGH)

DNA sequence copy number has been shown to be associated with cancer development and progression. Array-based Comparative Genomic Hybridization (aCGH) is a recent development that seeks to identify the copy number ratio at large numbers of markers across the genome. Due to experimental and biological variations across chromosomes and across hybridizations, current methods are limited to analyses of single chromosomes. We propose a more powerful approach that borrows strength across chromosomes and across hybridizations. We assume a Gaussian mixture model, with a hidden Markov dependence structure, and with random effects to allow for intertumoral variation, as well as intratumoral clonal variation. For ease of computation, we base estimation on a pseudolikelihood function. The method produces quantitative assessments of the likelihood of genetic alterations at each clone, along with a graphical display for simple visual interpretation. We assess the characteristics of the method through simulation studies and through analysis of a brain tumor aCGH data set. We show that the pseudolikelihood approach is superior to existing methods both in detecting small regions of copy number alteration and in accurately classifying regions of change when intratumoral clonal variation is present.

Additive Hazards Models with Latent Treatment Effectiveness Lag Time

In many clinical trials to evaluate treatment efficacy, it is believed that there may exist latent treatment effectiveness lag times after which medical procedure or chemical compound would be in full effect. In this article, semiparametric regression models are proposed and studied to estimate the treatment effect accounting for such latent lag times. The new models take advantage of the invariance property of the additive hazards model in marginalizing over random effects, so parameters in the models are easy to be estimated and interpreted, while the flexibility without specifying baseline hazard function is kept. Monte Carlo simulation studies demonstrate the appropriateness of the proposed semiparametric estimation procedure. Data collected in the actual randomized clinical trial, which evaluates the effectiveness of biodegradable carmustine polymers for treatment of recurrent brain tumors, are analyzed.

Placebo-controlled trials of Chinese herbal medicine and conventional medicine - comparative study

BACKGROUND: Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) is increasingly used in the West, but the evidence on its effectiveness is a matter of debate. We compared the characteristics, study quality and results of clinical trials of CHM and conventional medicine. METHODS: Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine. Eleven bibliographic databases and searches by hand of 48 Chinese-language journals. Conventional medicine trials matched for condition and type of outcome were randomly selected from the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (issue 1, 2003). Trials described as double-blind, with adequate generation of allocation sequence and adequate concealment of allocation, were assumed to be of high quality. Data were analysed using funnel plots and multivariable meta-regression models. RESULTS: 136 CHM trials (119 published in Chinese, 17 published in English) and 136 matched conventional medicine trials (125 published in English) were analysed. The quality of Chinese-language CHM trials tended to be lower than that of English-language CHM trials and conventional medicine trials. Three (2%) CHM trials and 10 (7%) conventional medicine trials were of high quality. In all groups, smaller trials showed more beneficial treatment effects than larger trials. CHM trials published in Chinese showed considerably larger effects than CHM trials published in English (adjusted ratio of ORs 0.29, 95% confidence intervals 0.17-0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Biases are present both in placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine, but may be most pronounced in CHM trials published in Chinese-language journals. Only few CHM trials of adequate methodology exist and the effectiveness of CHM therefore remains poorly documented.

Comparative study of biphasic calcium phosphates with different HA/TCP ratios in mandibular bone defects. A long-term histomorphometric study in minipigs

Three biphasic calcium phosphate (BCP) bone substitute materials with hydroxyapatite (HA)/tricalcium phosphate (TCP) ratios of 20/80, 60/40, and 80/20 were compared to coagulum, particulated autogenous bone, and deproteinized bovine bone mineral (DBBM) in membrane-protected bone defects. The defects were prepared in the mandibles of 24 minipigs that were divided into four groups of six with healing times of 4, 13, 26, and 52 weeks, respectively. The histologic and histomorphometric evaluation focused on differences in amount and pattern of bone formation, filler degradation, and the interface between bone and filler. Collapse of the expanded polytetrafluoroethylene barrier membrane into the coagulum defects underlined the necessity of a filler material to maintain the augmented volume. Quantitatively, BCP 20/80 showed bone formation and degradation of the filler material similar to autografts, whereas BCP 60/40 and BCP 80/20 rather equaled DBBM. Among the three BCP's, the amount of bone formation and degradation of filler material seemed to be inversely proportional to the HA/TCP ratio. The fraction of filler surface covered with bone was highest for autografts at all time points and was higher for DBBM than BCP 80/20 and 60/40 at the early healing phase. TRAP-positive multinucleated cells were identified on BCP and DBBM surfaces without showing typical signs of resorption lacunae.

Effectiveness of chlamydia screening: systematic review

BACKGROUND: Screening programmes are promoted to control transmission of and prevent female reproductive tract morbidity caused by genital chlamydia. The objective of this study was to examine the effectiveness of register-based and opportunistic chlamydia screening interventions. METHODS: We searched seven electronic databases (Cinahl, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, DARE, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO and SIGLE) without language restrictions from January 1990 to October 2007 and reference lists of retrieved articles to identify studies published before 1990. We included studies examining primary outcomes (pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, infertility, adverse pregnancy outcomes, neonatal infection, chlamydia prevalence) and harms of chlamydia screening in men and non-pregnant and pregnant women. We extracted data in duplicate and synthesized the data narratively or used random effects meta-analysis, where appropriate. RESULTS: We included six systematic reviews, five randomized trials, one non-randomized comparative study and one time trend study. Five reviews recommended screening of women at high risk of chlamydia. Two randomized trials found that register-based screening of women at high risk of chlamydia and of female and male high school students reduced the incidence of pelvic inflammatory disease in women at 1 year. Methodological inadequacies could have overestimated the observed benefits. One randomized trial showed that opportunistic screening in women undergoing surgical termination of pregnancy reduced post-abortal rates of pelvic inflammatory disease compared with no screening. We found no randomized trials showing a benefit of opportunistic screening in other populations, no trial examining the effects of more than one screening round and no trials examining the harms of chlamydia screening. CONCLUSION: There is an absence of evidence supporting opportunistic chlamydia screening in the general population younger than 25 years, the most commonly recommended approach. Equipoise remains, so high-quality randomized trials of multiple rounds of screening with biological outcome measures are still needed to determine the balance of benefits and harms of chlamydia screening.

Effectiveness of a nondestructive evaluation technique for assessing standing timber quality

The research presented in this thesis was conducted to further the development of the stress wave method of nondestructively assessing the quality of wood in standing trees. The specific objective of this research was to examine, in the field, use of two stress wave nondestructive assessment techniques. The first technique examined utilizes a laboratory-built measurement system consisting of commercially available accelerometers and a digital storage oscilloscope. The second technique uses a commercially available tool that incorporates several technologies to determine speed of stress wave propagation in standing trees. Field measurements using both techniques were conducted on sixty red pine trees in south-central Wisconsin and 115 ponderosa pine trees in western Idaho. After in-situ measurements were taken, thirty tested red pine trees were felled and a 15-foot-long butt log was obtained from each tree, while all tested ponderosa pine trees were felled and an 8 1/2 -foot-long butt log was obtained, respectively. The butt logs were sent to the USDA Forest Products Laboratory and nondestructively tested using a resonance stress wave technique. Strong correlative relationships were observed between stress wave values obtained from both field measurement techniques. Excellent relationships were also observed between standing tree and log speed-of-sound values.

Comparative study of anchorage strengths of epoxy coated hooked bars

Hooked reinforcing bars (rebar) are used frequently to carry the tension forces developed in beams and transferred to columns. Research into epoxy coated hooked bars has only been minimally performed and no research has been carried out incorporating the coating process found in ASTM A934. This research program compares hooked rebar that are uncoated, coated by ASTM A775, and coated by ASTM A934. In total, forty-two full size beam-column specimens were created, instrumented and tested to failure. The program was carried out in three phases. The first phase was used to refine the test setup and procedures. Phase two explored the spacing of column ties within the joint region. Phase three explored the three coating types found above. Each specimen included two hooked rebar which were loaded and measured independently for relative rebar slip. The load and displacement of the hooked rebar were analyzed, focusing on behavior at the levels of 30 ksi, 42 ksi and 60 ksi of rebar stress. Statistical and general comparisons were made using the coating types, tie spacing, and rebar stress level. Many of the parameters composing the rebar and concrete were also tested to characterize the components and specimens. All rebar tested met ASTM standards for tensile strength, but the newer ASTM A934 method seemed to produce slightly lower yield strengths. The A934 method also produced coating thicknesses that were very inconsistent and were higher than ASTM maximum limits in many locations. Continuity of coating surfaces was found to be less than 100% for both A775 and A934 rebar, but for different reasons. The many comparisons made did not always produce clear conclusions. The data suggests that the ACI Code (318-05) parameter of 1.2 for including epoxy coating on hooked rebar may need to be raised, possibly to 2.5, but more testing needs to be performed before such a large value change is set forth. This is particularly important as variables were identified which may have a larger influence on rebar capacity than the Development Length, of which the current 1.2 factor modifies. Many suggestions for future work are included throughout the thesis to help guide other researchers in carrying out successful and productive programs which will further the highly understudied topic of hooked rebar.

Evaluation of the performance and cost-effectiveness of pavement sections containing open-graded base courses

Moisture induced distresses have been the prevalent distress type affecting the deterioration of both asphalt and concrete pavement sections. While various surface techniques have been employed over the years to minimize the ingress of moisture into the pavement structural sections, subsurface drainage components like open-graded base courses remain the best alternative in minimizing the time the pavement structural sections are exposed to saturated conditions. This research therefore focuses on assessing the performance and cost-effectiveness of pavement sections containing both treated and untreated open-graded aggregate base materials. Three common roadway aggregates comprising of two virgin aggregates and one recycled aggregate were investigated using four open-ended gradations and two binder types. Laboratory tests were conducted to determine the hydraulic, mechanical and durability characteristics of treated and untreated open-graded mixes made from these three aggregate types. Results of the experimental program show that for the same gradation and mix design types, limestone samples have the greatest drainage capacity, stability to traffic loads and resistance to degradation from environmental conditions like freeze-thaw. However, depending on the gradation and mix design used, all three aggregate types namely limestone, natural gravel and recycled concrete can meet the minimum coefficient of hydraulic conductivity required for good drainage in most pavements. Tests results for both asphalt and cement treated open-graded samples indicate that a percent air void content within the range of 15-25 will produce a treated open-graded base course with sufficient drainage capacity and also long term stability under both traffic and environmental loads. Using the new Mechanistic and Empirical Design Guide software, computer simulations of pavement performance were conducted on pavement sections containing these open-graded base aggregate base materials to determine how the MEPDG predicted pavement performance is sensitive to drainage. Using three truck traffic levels and four climatic regions, results of the computer simulations indicate that the predicted performance was not sensitive to the drainage characteristics of the open-graded base course. Based on the result of the MEPDG predicted pavement performance, the cost-effectiveness of the pavement sections with open-graded base was computed on the assumption that the increase service life experienced by these sections was attributed to the positive effects of subsurface drainage. The two cost analyses used gave two contrasting results with the one indicating that the inclusion of open-graded base courses can lead to substantial savings.

[Swiss Research Agenda for Nursing (SRAN): the development of an agenda for clinical nursing research in Switzerland]

In many Anglo-Saxon and North European countries nursing research agendas have been developed to address priorities in nursing research in accordance with a nationally defined health policy. In Switzerland, due to lack of a nationwide governmental health policy, co-ordination of nursing research so far was scarce. The "Swiss Research Agenda for Nursing (SRAN)" project developed an agenda for clinical nursing research between 2005 and 2007. Based on literature reviews, expert panels and a national survey a project team formulated an agenda which passed a consensus conference. The agenda recommends aspects that should lead research and defines seven research priorities for nursing in Switzerland for the time between 2007 and 2017. Nursing research should prioritize to investigate 1) the effectiveness of nursing interventions; 2) the influences of service adaptations in a changing health care system; 3) the phenomena in patients requiring nursing care; 4) the influence of the work environment on the quality of nursing care; 5) the functioning of family and social systems; 6) varieties of life circumstances and their integration; and 7) the implementation of ethical principles in nursing. Written in German and French, the Swiss Research Agenda for Nursing for the first time formulates priorities for nursing research in Switzerland and can be used for strategic discussions. As a next step, the development of an action plan to enhance nursing research will take place in Switzerland.

Looking at the effectiveness of an earth science unit designed using the Understanding by Design process

This report shares my efforts in developing a solid unit of instruction that has a clear focus on student outcomes. I have been a teacher for 20 years and have been writing and revising curricula for much of that time. However, most has been developed without the benefit of current research on how students learn and did not focus on what and how students are learning. My journey as a teacher has involved a lot of trial and error. My traditional method of teaching is to look at the benchmarks (now content expectations) to see what needs to be covered. My unit consists of having students read the appropriate sections in the textbook, complete work sheets, watch a video, and take some notes. I try to include at least one hands-on activity, one or more quizzes, and the traditional end-of-unit test consisting mostly of multiple choice questions I find in the textbook. I try to be engaging, make the lessons fun, and hope that at the end of the unit my students get whatever concepts I���ve presented so that we can move on to the next topic. I want to increase students��� understanding of science concepts and their ability to connect understanding to the real-world. However, sometimes I feel that my lessons are missing something. For a long time I have wanted to develop a unit of instruction that I know is an effective tool for the teaching and learning of science. In this report, I describe my efforts to reform my curricula using the ���Understanding by Design��� process. I want to see if this style of curriculum design will help me be a more effective teacher and if it will lead to an increase in student learning. My hypothesis is that this new (for me) approach to teaching will lead to increased understanding of science concepts among students because it is based on purposefully thinking about learning targets based on ���big ideas��� in science. For my reformed curricula I incorporate lessons from several outstanding programs I���ve been involved with including EpiCenter (Purdue University), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), the Master of Science Program in Applied Science Education at Michigan Technological University, and the Michigan Association for Computer Users in Learning (MACUL). In this report, I present the methodology on how I developed a new unit of instruction based on the Understanding by Design process. I present several lessons and learning plans I���ve developed for the unit that follow the 5E Learning Cycle as appendices at the end of this report. I also include the results of pilot testing of one of lessons. Although the lesson I pilot-tested was not as successful in increasing student learning outcomes as I had anticipated, the development process I followed was helpful in that it required me to focus on important concepts. Conducting the pilot test was also helpful to me because it led me to identify ways in which I could improve upon the lesson in the future.