936 resultados para Combinações de Previsões


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Through a description of the productivity problems experienced by some enterprises, to optimize their respective production lines, results of poor performance or low quality, the following work aims to explain and demonstrate the practical application of the theory of overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) on cold lamination machines in a steel industry . The project, to ensure your goal, is based on structuring a complete planning to increase levels of performance, availability and quality relating to rolling. On completion of the work, will be presented forecasts of future goals for the OEE, to search for continuous improvement and global standards of efficiency, taking into account, the sector the company operates, the history of the laminators, and financial aspects

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The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

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Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

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In Geotechnical engineering the foundation projects depend on the bearing capacity and the acceptable displacements. One of the possible ways to predict the bearing capacity of foundations is through semi-empirical statistical methods which correlate in-situ tests (SPT and CPT). The piles breaking loads are defined by the interpretation of the load x head displacement curve and the experimental data acquired through the load test. In this work it is studied the behavior of bored piles executed in the Araquari/SC region, comparing the bearing capacity values predicted by the methods DECOURT & QUARESMA MODIFICADO (1996), AOKI & VELLOSO MODIFICADO MONTEIRO (2000), MILITITISKY E ALVES (1985), DECOURT & QUARESMA (1978), MÉTODO DE AOKI & VELLOSO (1975) e PHILOPANNAT (1986), with the results of the load test, evaluating their differences and discussing parameters that have direct effects on the prediction

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV

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The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

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Through a description of the productivity problems experienced by some enterprises, to optimize their respective production lines, results of poor performance or low quality, the following work aims to explain and demonstrate the practical application of the theory of overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) on cold lamination machines in a steel industry . The project, to ensure your goal, is based on structuring a complete planning to increase levels of performance, availability and quality relating to rolling. On completion of the work, will be presented forecasts of future goals for the OEE, to search for continuous improvement and global standards of efficiency, taking into account, the sector the company operates, the history of the laminators, and financial aspects

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Resumo:

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

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Resumo:

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

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In Geotechnical engineering the foundation projects depend on the bearing capacity and the acceptable displacements. One of the possible ways to predict the bearing capacity of foundations is through semi-empirical statistical methods which correlate in-situ tests (SPT and CPT). The piles breaking loads are defined by the interpretation of the load x head displacement curve and the experimental data acquired through the load test. In this work it is studied the behavior of bored piles executed in the Araquari/SC region, comparing the bearing capacity values predicted by the methods DECOURT & QUARESMA MODIFICADO (1996), AOKI & VELLOSO MODIFICADO MONTEIRO (2000), MILITITISKY E ALVES (1985), DECOURT & QUARESMA (1978), MÉTODO DE AOKI & VELLOSO (1975) e PHILOPANNAT (1986), with the results of the load test, evaluating their differences and discussing parameters that have direct effects on the prediction

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV

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The objective of the present study was to compare the performance of three serological tests for diagnosis of Brucella abortus infections in buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis). Serum samples collected from 696 adult females were submitted to the competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISAC), (I-ELISA), fluorescence polarization test (FPA), 2-mercaptoethanol test (2-ME) and complement fixation test (CFT). The gold standard was the combination of CFT and 2-ME, considering as positive the reactors in both CFT and 2-ME, and as negative those non-reactors. ROC analyses were done for C-ELISA, I-ELISA and FPA and the Kappa agreement index were also calculated. The best combinations of relative sensitivity (SEr) and relative specificity (SPr) and Kappa were given by C-ELISA (96.9%, 99.1%, and 0.932, respectively) and FPA (92.2%, 97.6 and 0.836, respectively). The C-ELISA and FPA were the most promising confirmatory tests for the serological diagnosis of brucellosis in buffaloes, and for these tests, cut-off values for buffaloes may be the same as those used for bovines.

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The adoption of no-till system (NTS) combined with crop-livestock integration (CLI) has been a strategy promoted in Brazil, aiming to maximize areas yield and increase agribusiness profitability. This study aimed to evaluate grains yield and phytotechnical attributes from maize and soybean culture by CLI system under NTS after winter annual pure and diversified pastures with the absence or presence of grazing animals. The experiment was installed in Castro (Parana State, Brazil) on in a dystrophic Humic Rhodic Hapludox with a clay texture, using experimental design of randomized complete blocks in 4 x 2 factorial scheme with three replications. Treatments included four pasture combinations (diversified or pure) and animal categories (light and heavy) subjected or not to grazing animals during the winter. During 2008/09 and 2009/10 summers, the area was cultivated with soybeans and maize, respectively, with yield assessment of grains and phytotechnical attributes. Treatments did not alter the yield and weight of a thousand seeds (WTS) of soybeans. In maize culture, the grazing animal during the winter increased the plant population and grains yield, but gave slight decrease in WTS. Pasture combinations (diversified or pure) and animal categories (light and heavy) did not interfere in soybean culture, but benefited the maize crop.

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Os microssítios de regeneração são caracterizados por diversas combinações de atributos que representam condições que influenciam a germinação de sementes e o estabelecimento de plântulas. O conhecimento desses atributos pode contribuir para a determinação de metodologias adequadas de manejo, visando ao restabelecimento dos processos ecológicos nas áreas em processo de restauração. Dessa forma, o objetivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar e diferenciar as condições físico-químicas de microssítios de regeneração de áreas em processo de restauração florestal, visando identificar possíveis limitações físicas e químicas ao estabelecimento de espécies arbóreas nativas no sub-bosque. O estudo foi desenvolvido em reflorestamentos de espécies nativas com diferentes idades (10, 22 e 55 anos). Foi realizada a avaliação do grau de compactação, porosidade, umidade, conteúdo de matéria orgânica e nutrientes e granulometria do solo, bem como a massa de matéria seca de serapilheira e a cobertura do dossel de cada área de estudo. Houve aumento da cobertura do dossel, da porosidade, da umidade, do conteúdo de argila, da matéria orgânica e de outros nutrientes, e uma diminuição da compactação do solo, com o aumento da idade da restauração. Assim, conclui-se que, com a evolução da restauração, as condições de microssítio de regeneração estão se assemelhando gradativamente às presentes nos ecossistemas de referência, sendo este um aspecto positivo para que o recrutamento de espécies nativas seja favorecido ao longo do tempo.