Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

CHP toolkit: case study of LAIe sensitivity to discontinuity of canopy cover in fruit plantations

This paper presents an open-source canopy height profile (CHP) toolkit designed for processing small-footprint full-waveform LiDAR data to obtain the estimates of effective leaf area index (LAIe) and CHPs. The use of the toolkit is presented with a case study of LAIe estimation in discontinuous-canopy fruit plantations. The experiments are carried out in two study areas, namely, orange and almond plantations, with different percentages of canopy cover (48% and 40%, respectively). For comparison, two commonly used discrete-point LAIe estimation methods are also tested. The LiDAR LAIe values are first computed for each of the sites and each method as a whole, providing “apparent” site-level LAIe, which disregards the discontinuity of the plantations’ canopies. Since the toolkit allows for the calculation of the study area LAIe at different spatial scales, between-tree-level clumpingcan be easily accounted for and is then used to illustrate the impact of the discontinuity of canopy cover on LAIe retrieval. The LiDAR LAIe estimates are therefore computed at smaller scales as a mean of LAIe in various grid-cell sizes, providing estimates of “actual” site-level LAIe. Subsequently, the LiDAR LAIe results are compared with theoretical models of “apparent” LAIe versus “actual” LAIe, based on known percent canopy cover in each site. The comparison of those models to LiDAR LAIe derived from the smallest grid-cell sizes against the estimates of LAIe for the whole site has shown that the LAIe estimates obtained from the CHP toolkit provided values that are closest to those of theoretical models.

Cloud streets and land-water interactions in the Amazon

Cloud streets are common feature in the Amazon Basin. They form from the combination of the vertical trade wind stress and moist convection. Here, satellite imagery, data collected during the COBRA-PARA (Caxiuan Observations in the Biosphere, River and Atmosphere of Para) field campaign, and high resolution modeling are used to understand the streets` formation and behavior. The observations show that the streets have an aspect ratio of about 3.5 and they reach their maximum activity around 15:00 UTC when the wind shear is weaker, and the convective boundary layer reaches its maximum height. The simulations reveal that the cloud streets onset is caused by the local circulations and convection produced at the interfaces between forest and rivers of the Amazon. The satellite data and modeling show that the large rivers anchor the cloud streets producing a quasi-stationary horizontal pattern. The streets are associated with horizontal roll vortices parallel to the mean flow that organizes the turbulence causing advection of latent heat flux towards the upward branches. The streets have multiple warm plumes that promote a connection between the rolls. These spatial patterns allow fundamental insights on the interpretation of the Amazon exchanges between surface and atmosphere with important consequences for the climate change understanding.

Cloud condensation nuclei from biomass burning during the Amazonian dry-to-wet transition season

Aircraft measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) during the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) were conducted over the Southwestern Amazon region in September-October 2002, to emphasize the dry-to-wet transition season. The CCN concentrations were measured for values within the range 0.1-1.0% of supersaturation. The CCN concentration inside the boundary layer revealed a general decreasing trend during the transition from the end of the dry season to the onset of the wet season. Clean and polluted areas showed large differences. The differences were not so strong at high levels in the troposphere and there was evidence supporting the semi-direct aerosol effect in suppressing convection through the evaporation of clouds by aerosol absorption. The measurements also showed a diurnal cycle following biomass burning activity. Although biomass burning was the most important source of CCN, it was seen as a source of relatively efficient CCN, since the increase was significant only at high supersaturations.

The impact of smoke from forest fires on the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions in the Amazonian region

In this paper, the main microphysical characteristics of clouds developing in polluted and clean conditions in the biomass-burning season of the Amazon region are examined, with special attention to the spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution and its potential impact on climate modeling applications. The dispersion effect has been shown to alter the climate cooling predicted by the so-called Twomey effect. In biomass-burning polluted conditions, high concentrations of low dispersed cloud droplets are found. Clean conditions revealed an opposite situation. The liquid water content (0.43 +/- 0.19 g m(-3)) is shown to be uncorrelated with the cloud drop number concentration, while the effective radius is found to be very much correlated with the relative dispersion of the size distribution (R(2) = 0.81). The results suggest that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration from biomass-burning aerosols may lead to an additional effect caused by a decrease in relative dispersion. Since the dry season in the Amazonian region is vapor limiting, the dispersion effect of cloud droplet size distributions could be substantially larger than in other polluted regions.

Probing the Large Magellanic Cloud age gap at intermediate cluster masses

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has a rich star cluster system spanning a wide range of ages and masses. One striking feature of the LMC cluster system is the existence of an age gap between 3 and 10 Gyr. But this feature is not clearly seen among field stars. Three LMC fields containing relatively poor and sparse clusters whose integrated colours are consistent with those of intermediate-age simple stellar populations have been imaged in BVI with the Optical Imager (SOI) at the Southern Telescope for Astrophysical Research (SOAR). A total of six clusters, five of them with estimated initial masses M < 104 M(circle dot), were studied in these fields. Photometry was performed and colour-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) were built using standard point spread function fitting methods. The faintest stars measured reach V similar to 23. The CMD was cleaned from field contamination by making use of the three-dimensional colour and magnitude space available in order to select stars in excess relative to the field. A statistical CMD comparison method was developed for this purpose. The subtraction method has proven to be successful, yielding cleaned CMDs consistent with a simple stellar population. The intermediate-age candidates were found to be the oldest in our sample, with ages between 1 and 2 Gyr. The remaining clusters found in the SOAR/SOI have ages ranging from 100 to 200 Myr. Our analysis has conclusively shown that none of the relatively low-mass clusters studied by us belongs to the LMC age gap.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Minimum cycle cover and Chinese postman problems on mixed graphs with bounded tree-width

Let M = (V, E, A) be a mixed graph with vertex set V, edge set E and arc set A. A cycle cover of M is a family C = {C(1), ... , C(k)} of cycles of M such that each edge/arc of M belongs to at least one cycle in C. The weight of C is Sigma(k)(i=1) vertical bar C(i)vertical bar. The minimum cycle cover problem is the following: given a strongly connected mixed graph M without bridges, find a cycle cover of M with weight as small as possible. The Chinese postman problem is: given a strongly connected mixed graph M, find a minimum length closed walk using all edges and arcs of M. These problems are NP-hard. We show that they can be solved in polynomial time if M has bounded tree-width. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cloud computing - Moving to the cloud

Cloud computing innebär användning av datorresurser som är tillgängliga via ett nätverk, oftast Internet och är ett område som har vuxit fram i snabb takt under de senaste åren. Allt fler företag migrerar hela eller delar av sin verksamhet till molnet. Sogeti i Borlänge har behov av att migrera sina utvecklingsmiljöer till en molntjänst då drift och underhåll av dessa är kostsamma och tidsödande. Som Microsoftpartners vill Sogeti använda Microsoft tjänst för cloud computing, Windows Azure, för detta syfte. Migration till molnet är ett nytt område för Sogeti och de har inga beskrivningar för hur en sådan process går till. Vårt uppdrag var att utveckla ett tillvägagångssätt för migration av en IT-lösning till molnet. En del av uppdraget blev då att kartlägga cloud computing, dess beståndsdelar samt vilka för- och nackdelar som finns, vilket har gjort att vi har fått grundläggande kunskap i ämnet. För att utveckla ett tillvägagångssätt för migration har vi utfört flera migrationer av virtuella maskiner till Windows Azure och utifrån dessa migrationer, litteraturstudier och intervjuer dragit slutsatser som mynnat ut i ett generellt tillvägagångssätt för migration till molnet. Resultatet har visat att det är svårt att göra en generell men samtidigt detaljerad beskrivning över ett tillvägagångssätt för migration, då scenariot ser olika ut beroende på vad som ska migreras och vilken typ av molntjänst som används. Vi har dock utifrån våra erfarenheter från våra migrationer, tillsammans med litteraturstudier, dokumentstudier och intervjuer lyft vår kunskap till en generell nivå. Från denna kunskap har vi sammanställt ett generellt tillvägagångssätt med större fokus på de förberedande aktiviteter som en organisation bör genomföra innan migration. Våra studier har även resulterat i en fördjupad beskrivning av cloud computing. I vår studie har vi inte sett att någon tidigare har beskrivit kritiska framgångsfaktorer i samband med cloud computing. I vårt empiriska arbete har vi dock identifierat tre kritiska framgångsfaktorer för cloud computing och i och med detta täckt upp en del av kunskapsgapet där emellan.