Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Primordial Isocurvature Perturbation in Light of CMB and LSS Data

The increased accuracy in the cosmological observations, especially in the measurements of the comic microwave background, allow us to study the primordial perturbations in grater detail. In this thesis, we allow the possibility for a correlated isocurvature perturbations alongside the usual adiabatic perturbations. Thus far the simplest six parameter \Lambda CDM model has been able to accommodate all the observational data rather well. However, we find that the 3-year WMAP data and the 2006 Boomerang data favour a nonzero nonadiabatic contribution to the CMB angular power sprctrum. This is primordial isocurvature perturbation that is positively correlated with the primordial curvature perturbation. Compared with the adiabatic \Lambda CMD model we have four additional parameters describing the increased complexity if the primordial perturbations. Our best-fit model has a 4% nonadiabatic contribution to the CMB temperature variance and the fit is improved by \Delta\chi^2 = 9.7. We can attribute this preference for isocurvature to a feature in the peak structure of the angular power spectrum, namely, the widths of the second and third acoustic peak. Along the way, we have improved our analysis methods by identifying some issues with the parametrisation of the primordial perturbation spectra and suggesting ways to handle these. Due to the improvements, the convergence of our Markov chains is improved. The change of parametrisation has an effect on the MCMC analysis because of the change in priors. We have checked our results against this and find only marginal differences between our parametrisation.

Numerical approaches to new particle formation and growth in the atmosphere

Aerosols impact the planet and our daily lives through various effects, perhaps most notably those related to their climatic and health-related consequences. While there are several primary particle sources, secondary new particle formation from precursor vapors is also known to be a frequent, global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the formation mechanism of new particles, as well as the vapors participating in the process, remain a mystery. This thesis consists of studies on new particle formation specifically from the point of view of numerical modeling. A dependence of formation rate of 3 nm particles on the sulphuric acid concentration to the power of 1-2 has been observed. This suggests nucleation mechanism to be of first or second order with respect to the sulphuric acid concentration, in other words the mechanisms based on activation or kinetic collision of clusters. However, model studies have had difficulties in replicating the small exponents observed in nature. The work done in this thesis indicates that the exponents may be lowered by the participation of a co-condensing (and potentially nucleating) low-volatility organic vapor, or by increasing the assumed size of the critical clusters. On the other hand, the presented new and more accurate method for determining the exponent indicates high diurnal variability. Additionally, these studies included several semi-empirical nucleation rate parameterizations as well as a detailed investigation of the analysis used to determine the apparent particle formation rate. Due to their high proportion of the earth's surface area, oceans could potentially prove to be climatically significant sources of secondary particles. In the lack of marine observation data, new particle formation events in a coastal region were parameterized and studied. Since the formation mechanism is believed to be similar, the new parameterization was applied in a marine scenario. The work showed that marine CCN production is feasible in the presence of additional vapors contributing to particle growth. Finally, a new method to estimate concentrations of condensing organics was developed. The algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the required combination of vapor concentrations by comparing a measured particle size distribution with one from an aerosol dynamics process model. The evaluation indicated excellent agreement against model data, and initial results with field data appear sound as well.

Parametrized actor-critic algorithms for finite-horizon MDPs

Due to their non-stationarity, finite-horizon Markov decision processes (FH-MDPs) have one probability transition matrix per stage. Thus the curse of dimensionality affects FH-MDPs more severely than infinite-horizon MDPs. We propose two parametrized 'actor-critic' algorithms to compute optimal policies for FH-MDPs. Both algorithms use the two-timescale stochastic approximation technique, thus simultaneously performing gradient search in the parametrized policy space (the 'actor') on a slower timescale and learning the policy gradient (the 'critic') via a faster recursion. This is in contrast to methods where critic recursions learn the cost-to-go proper. We show w.p 1 convergence to a set with the necessary condition for constrained optima. The proposed parameterization is for FHMDPs with compact action sets, although certain exceptions can be handled. Further, a third algorithm for stochastic control of stopping time processes is presented. We explain why current policy evaluation methods do not work as critic to the proposed actor recursion. Simulation results from flow-control in communication networks attest to the performance advantages of all three algorithms.

Solving MDPs using two-timescale simulated annealing with multiplicative weights

We develop extensions of the Simulated Annealing with Multiplicative Weights (SAMW) algorithm that proposed a method of solution of Finite-Horizon Markov Decision Processes (FH-MDPs). The extensions developed are in three directions: a) Use of the dynamic programming principle in the policy update step of SAMW b) A two-timescale actor-critic algorithm that uses simulated transitions alone, and c) Extending the algorithm to the infinite-horizon discounted-reward scenario. In particular, a) reduces the storage required from exponential to linear in the number of actions per stage-state pair. On the faster timescale, a 'critic' recursion performs policy evaluation while on the slower timescale an 'actor' recursion performs policy improvement using SAMW. We give a proof outlining convergence w.p. 1 and show experimental results on two settings: semiconductor fabrication and flow control in communication networks.

Delay optimal control algorithm for a multiaccess fading channel with peak power constraint

We consider an optimal power and rate scheduling problem for a multiaccess fading wireless channel with the objective of minimising a weighted sum of mean packet transmission delay subject to a peak power constraint. The base station acts as a controller which, depending upon the buffer lengths and the channel state of each user, allocates transmission rate and power to individual users. We assume perfect channel state information at the transmitter and the receiver. We also assume a Markov model for the fading and packet arrival processes. The policy obtained represents a form of Indexability.

Solution of MDPS using simulation-based value iteration

This article proposes a three-timescale simulation based algorithm for solution of infinite horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We assume a finite state space and discounted cost criterion and adopt the value iteration approach. An approximation of the Dynamic Programming operator T is applied to the value function iterates. This 'approximate' operator is implemented using three timescales, the slowest of which updates the value function iterates. On the middle timescale we perform a gradient search over the feasible action set of each state using Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA) gradient estimates, thus finding the minimizing action in T. On the fastest timescale, the 'critic' estimates, over which the gradient search is performed, are obtained. A sketch of convergence explaining the dynamics of the algorithm using associated ODEs is also presented. Numerical experiments on rate based flow control on a bottleneck node using a continuous-time queueing model are performed using the proposed algorithm. The results obtained are verified against classical value iteration where the feasible set is suitably discretized. Over such a discretized setting, a variant of the algorithm of [12] is compared and the proposed algorithm is found to converge faster.

Generalization of Dynkin's Identity and Some Applications

Let X(t) be a right continuous temporally homogeneous Markov pro- cess, Tt the corresponding semigroup and A the weak infinitesimal genera- tor. Let g(t) be absolutely continuous and r a stopping time satisfying E.( S f I g(t) I dt) < oo and E.( f " I g'(t) I dt) < oo Then for f e 9iJ(A) with f(X(t)) right continuous the identity Exg(r)f(X(z)) - g(O)f(x) = E( 5 " g'(s)f(X(s)) ds) + E.( 5 " g(s)Af(X(s)) ds) is a simple generalization of Dynkin's identity (g(t) 1). With further restrictions on f and r the following identity is obtained as a corollary: Ex(f(X(z))) = f(x) + k! Ex~rkAkf(X(z))) + n-1E + (n ) )!.E,(so un-1Anf(X(u)) du). These identities are applied to processes with stationary independent increments to obtain a number of new and known results relating the moments of stopping times to the moments of the stopped processes.

An analytical model for the capacity estimation of combined VoIP and TCP file transfers over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

In this paper we develop and numerically explore the modeling heuristic of using saturation attempt probabilities as state dependent attempt probabilities in an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls and TCP controlled file downloads, using Enhanced Distributed Channel Access (EDCA). We build upon the fixed point analysis and performance insights in [1]. When there are a certain number of nodes of each class contending for the channel (i.e., have nonempty queues), then their attempt probabilities are taken to be those obtained from saturation analysis for that number of nodes. Then we model the system queue dynamics at the network nodes. With the proposed heuristic, the system evolution at channel slot boundaries becomes a Markov renewal process, and regenerative analysis yields the desired performance measures.The results obtained from this approach match well with ns2 simulations. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for AC 1 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one file download is initiated by some station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the file download capacity almost linearly (by 1/3 Mbps per voice call for the 11 Mbps PHY).

A mathematical programming approach to optimal Markovian switching of Poisson arrival streams to queueing systems

Motivated by certain situations in manufacturing systems and communication networks, we look into the problem of maximizing the profit in a queueing system with linear reward and cost structure and having a choice of selecting the streams of Poisson arrivals according to an independent Markov chain. We view the system as a MMPP/GI/1 queue and seek to maximize the profits by optimally choosing the stationary probabilities of the modulating Markov chain. We consider two formulations of the optimization problem. The first one (which we call the PUT problem) seeks to maximize the profit per unit time whereas the second one considers the maximization of the profit per accepted customer (the PAC problem). In each of these formulations, we explore three separate problems. In the first one, the constraints come from bounding the utilization of an infinite capacity server; in the second one the constraints arise from bounding the mean queue length of the same queue; and in the third one the finite capacity of the buffer reflect as a set of constraints. In the problems bounding the utilization factor of the queue, the solutions are given by essentially linear programs, while the problems with mean queue length constraints are linear programs if the service is exponentially distributed. The problems modeling the finite capacity queue are non-convex programs for which global maxima can be found. There is a rich relationship between the solutions of the PUT and PAC problems. In particular, the PUT solutions always make the server work at a utilization factor that is no less than that of the PAC solutions.

Performance analysis of a slotted-ALOHA protocol on a capture channel with fading

We consider the slotted ALOHA protocol on a channel with a capture effect. There are M <infinity users each with an infinite buffer. If in a slot, i packets are transmitted, then the probability of a successful reception of a packet is q(i). This model contains the CDMA protocols as special cases. We obtain sufficient rate conditions, which are close to necessary for stability of the system, when the arrival streams are stationary ergodic. Under the same rate conditions, for general regenerative arrival streams, we obtain the rates of convergence to stationarity, finiteness of stationary moments and various functional limit theorems. Our arrival streams contain all the traffic models suggested in the recent literature, including the ones which display long range dependence. We also obtain bounds on the stationary moments of waiting times which can be tight under realistic conditions. Finally, we obtain several results on the transient performance of the system, e.g., first time to overflow and the limits of the overflow process. We also extend the above results to the case of a capture channel exhibiting Markov modulated fading. Most of our results and proofs will be shown to hold also for the slotted ALOHA protocol without capture.

Reliability models for existing structures based on dynamic state estimation and data based asymptotic extreme value analysis

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Belief Propagation Based Decoding of Large Non-Orthogonal STBCs

In this paper,we present a belief propagation (BP) based algorithm for decoding non-orthogonal space-time block codes (STBC) from cyclic division algebras (CDA) having large dimensions. The proposed approachinvolves message passing on Markov random field (MRF) representation of the STBC MIMO system. Adoption of BP approach to decode non-orthogonal STBCs of large dimensions has not been reported so far. Our simulation results show that the proposed BP-based decoding achieves increasingly closer to SISO AWGN performance for increased number of dimensions. In addition, it also achieves near-capacity turbo coded BER performance; for e.g., with BP decoding of 24 x 24 STBC from CDA using BPSK (i.e.,n576 real dimensions) and rate-1/2 turbo code (i.e., 12 bps/Hz spectral efficiency), coded BER performance close to within just about 2.5 dB from the theoretical MIMO capacity is achieved.

The Shannon Cipher System with a Guessing Wiretapper: General Sources

The Shannon cipher system is studied in the context of general sources using a notion of computational secrecy introduced by Merhav &amp; Arikan. Bounds are derived on limiting exponents of guessing moments for general sources. The bounds are shown to be tight for iid, Markov, and unifilar sources, thus recovering some known results. A close relationship between error exponents and correct decoding exponents formfixed rate source compression on the one hand and exponents for guessing moments on the other hand is established.

Multi-Pattern Viterbi Algorithm for joint decoding of multiple speech patterns

Joint decoding of multiple speech patterns so as to improve speech recognition performance is important, especially in the presence of noise. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Pattern Viterbi algorithm (MPVA) to jointly decode and recognize multiple speech patterns for automatic speech recognition (ASR). The MPVA is a generalization of the Viterbi Algorithm to jointly decode multiple patterns given a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Unlike the previously proposed two stage Constrained Multi-Pattern Viterbi Algorithm (CMPVA),the MPVA is a single stage algorithm. MPVA has the advantage that it cart be extended to connected word recognition (CWR) and continuous speech recognition (CSR) problems. MPVA is shown to provide better speech recognition performance than the earlier techniques: using only two repetitions of noisy speech patterns (-5 dB SNR, 10% burst noise), the word error rate using MPVA decreased by 28.5%, when compared to using individual decoding. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.