Bayesian Analysis for the Generalized Lognormal Distribution Applied to Failure Time Analysis

There are several versions of the lognormal distribution in the statistical literature, one is based in the exponential transformation of generalized normal distribution (GN). This paper presents the Bayesian analysis for the generalized lognormal distribution (logGN) considering independent non-informative Jeffreys distributions for the parameters as well as the procedure for implementing the Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior distributions of parameters. The results are used to analyze failure time models with right-censored and uncensored data. The proposed method is illustrated using actual failure time data of computers.

History of hypertension and eplerenone in patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by heart failure

In the Eplerenone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study ( n = 6632), eplerenone- associated reduction in all- cause mortality was significantly greater in those with a history of hypertension ( Hx- HTN). There were 4007 patients with Hx- HTN ( eplerenone: n = 1983) and 2625 patients without Hx- HTN ( eplerenone: n = 1336). Propensity scores for eplerenone use, separately calculated for patients with and without Hx- HTN, were used to assemble matched cohorts of 1838 and 1176 pairs of patients. In patients with Hx- HTN, all- cause mortality occurred in 18% of patients treated with placebo ( rate, 1430/ 10 000 person- years) and 14% of patients treated with eplerenone ( rate, 1058/ 10 000 person- years) during 2350 and 2457 years of follow- up, respectively ( hazard ratio [ HR]: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.85; P < 0.0001). Composite end point of cardiovascular hospitalization or cardiovascular mortality occurred in 33% of placebo-treated patients ( 3029/ 10 000 person- years) and 28% of eplerenone- treated patients (2438/10 000 person- years) with Hx- HTN ( HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72 to 0.94; P = 0.003). In patients without Hx- HTN, eplerenone reduced heart failure hospitalization ( HR: 73; 95% CI: 0.55 to 0.97; P = 0.028) but had no effect on mortality ( HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.72 to 1.15; P = 0.435) or on the composite end point ( HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.10; P = 0.331). Eplerenone should, therefore, be prescribed to all of the post - acute myocardial infarction patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction and heart failure regardless of Hx- HTN.

Identification of lift-off mechanism failure for salt drill-in drilling fluid containing polymer filter cake through adsorption/desorption studies

Drilling fluid`s contact with the productive zone of horizontal or complex wells can reduce well productivity by fluid invasion in the borehole wall. Salted drilling drill-in fluid containing polymers has often been applied in horizontal or complex petroleum wells in the poorly consolidated sandstone reservoirs of the Campos basin, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This fluid usually consists of natural polymers such as starch and xanthan gum, which are deposited as a filter cake on the wellbore wall during the drilling. Therefore, the identification of a lift-off mechanism failure, which can be detachment or blistering and pinholing, will enable formulation improvements. increasing the chances of success during filter cake removal in open hole operations. Likewise, knowledge of drill-in drilling fluid adsorption/desorption onto sand can help understand the filter cake-rock adhesion mechanism and consequently filter cake lift-off mechanism failures. The present study aimed to identify the lift-off failure mechanism for this type of fluid filter cake studying adsorption/desorption onto SiO(2) using solutions of natural polymers, lubricants, besides the fluid itself. Ellipsometry was employed to measure this process. The adsorption/desorption studies showed that the adsorbed layer of drilling fluid onto the walls of the rock pores is made up of clusters of polymers, linked by hydrogen bonds, which results in a force of lower cohesion compared to the electrostatic interaction between silica and polymers. Consequently, it was found that the most probable filter cake failure mechanism is rupture (blistering and pinholing), which results in the formation of ducts within the filter cake. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modernist Success in a Postmodern Failure: Jackson Pollock and Abstract Expressionism, the Avant-Garde and the Ascension of Late Capitalism, Art after 1945

It is hard to imagine the magnitude of the events at the end of World War II. The thought produced in the face of a myriad of deaths is almost unfeasible sixty years after the fact, but the energy was integral to the changing social landscape. Because of the country's prominence in and fortitude after the war, the U.S. was left responsible for reshaping and rejuvenating the international landscape that was destroyed by the years of brutal fighting and vile contestation. The American establishment was granted a major opportunity to establish itself amongst the global leaders. Such a grand responsibility must account for the multiplicity of thought that arises in such a decisive moment. In order to align the Abstract Expressionist art movement with the intersection of the intense, multifaceted thought developed during the postwar period, the following will discuss the political, philosophical, economic, and art historical overlap that occurred in the mid to late 1940s in the hopes of illustrating the fertility yet lingering problems associated with the restructuring of the world with America at the helm. In this way, the duration of the Abstract Expressionist moment will be better understood for both its triumphs and downfalls.

Entrepreneurship failure: is culture to blame?

Apesar de Empreendedorismo e Cultura serem tópicos com extensa literatura na área de estudos de Administração de Empresas, existe relativamente pouca pesquisa na influencia que a Cultura exerce no Empreendedorismo. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é investigar a influencia da cultura no índice de fracasso do empreendedorismo. Através de uma abordagem de correlação, utilizando 40 países da database do Hofstede (2001) de trabalhadores da IBM e dados presentes na database do Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). Os resultados desta análise sugerem que Individualismo VS. Coletivismo é a única dimensão cultural significativa quando se discute os efeitos da cultura no índice de fracasso do Empreendedorismo.

Why merger talks collapse: an exploratory study about contributing factors to ‘wedding cold feet' and deal making failure in mergers and acquisitions from the perspective of active deal making professionals in Brazil

Why merger talks collapse: an exploratory study about contributing factors behind ‘wedding cold feet' and deal making failure in Mergers and Acquisitions from the perspective of active deal making professionals in Brazil. One basic question encouraged this study: after all the effort, expectations and money usually invested in dealmaking, why are so many transactions simply abandoned, even when the benefits are clear for the business, shareholders, customers and employees?

Co-ordination failure, moral hazard and sovereign bankruptcy procedures

We study a model of sovereign debt crisis that combines problems of creditor coordination and debtor moral hazard. Solving the sovereign debtor's incentives leads to excessive 'rollover failure' by creditors when sovereign default occurs. We discuss how the incidence of crises might be reduced by international sovereign bankruptcy procedures and relate this to the current debate on revising international financial architecture. Paper prepared for Bank of England Conference on "The Role of the Official and Private Sectors in Resolving International Financial Crises", London, and for the Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Sao Paolo, Brazil. (Preliminary draft circulated for comments, please do not cite without reference to the authors).

The failure of early-stage technology startups in Brazil: a study about the contributing factors to the early-death of startups between 2009 and 2014 in Southeastern Brazil

This research aimed to find out which are the main factors that lead technology startups to fail. The study focused on companies located in the Southeast region of Brazil that operated between 2009 and 2014. In the beginning, a review of the literature was done to have a better understanding of basic concepts of entrepreneurship as well as modern techniques for developing entrepreneurship. Furthermore, an analysis of the entrepreneurial scenario in Brazil, with a focus on the Southeast, was also done. After this phase, the qualitative study began, in which 24 specialists from startups were interviewed and asked about which factors were crucial in leading a technology startup to fail. After analyzing the results, four main factors were identified and these factors were validated through a quantitative survey. A questionnaire was then formulated based on the answers from the respondents and distributed to founders and executives of startups, which both failed and succeeded. The questionnaire was answered by 56 companies and their answers were treated with the factor analysis statistical method to check the validity of the questionnaire. Finally, the logistical regression method was used to know the extent to which the factors led to the startups’ failure. In the end, the results obtained suggest that the most significant factor that leads technology startups in southeastern Brazil to fail are problems with interpersonal relationship between partners or investors.

Spawning failure in Brycon amazonicus may be associated with ovulation and not with final oocyte maturation

Avaliaram-se os possíveis mecanismos envolvidos com a falha na desova de matrinxãs (Brycon amazonicus), submetidas à indução hormonal por extrato bruto de hipófise de carpa. Para tal, após a extrusão, os ovários foram coletados e analisados histomorfometricamente. Nas fêmeas que não desovaram (FNDs), a maioria dos ovócitos vitelogênicos remanescentes nos ovários atingiu a maturação final, apresentando quebra de vesícula germinativa, mas não foram ovulados (NOs). Consequentemente, estas fêmeas apresentaram frequências mais baixas de folículos pós ovulatórios (5%) quando comparadas com a que desovou (FD) (23%). Com relação aos NOs, os valores se inverteram e a frequência destes nas FNDs (21%) foi maior do que na FD (3%). Estes dados indicam que as falhas na desova desta espécie estão provavelmente relacionadas com a ovulação, uma vez que a maturação final dos ovócitos ocorre de forma similar tanto nas FNDs como na FD. Os dados sugerem que as substâncias que promovem a ovulação, como as prostaglandinas, podem aumentar o sucesso de desova em peixes reofílicos.

Two-dimensional modeling of material failure in reinforced concrete by means of a continuum strong discontinuity approach

The paper presents a new methodology to model material failure, in two-dimensional reinforced concrete members, using the Continuum Strong Discontinuity Approach (CSDA). The mixture theory is used as the methodological approach to model reinforced concrete as a composite material, constituted by a plain concrete matrix reinforced with two embedded orthogonal long fiber bundles (rebars). Matrix failure is modeled on the basis of a continuum damage model, equipped with strain softening, whereas the rebars effects are modeled by means of phenomenological constitutive models devised to reproduce the axial non-linear behavior, as well as the bondslip and dowel effects. The proposed methodology extends the fundamental ingredients of the standard Strong Discontinuity Approach, and the embedded discontinuity finite element formulations, in homogeneous materials, to matrix/fiber composite materials, as reinforced concrete. The specific aspects of the material failure modeling for those composites are also addressed. A number of available experimental tests are reproduced in order to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

3-D reconstruction by extended depth-of-field in failure analysis - Case study II: Fractal analysis of interlaminar fracture in carbon/epoxy composites

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

3-D reconstruction by extended depth-of-field in failure analysis - Case study I: Qualitative fractographic investigation of fractured bolts in a partial valve

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)