Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.

Use of general practice prescribing data as a surrogate estimate of statin compliance

Background and Objective: To maximise the benefit from statin therapy, patients must maintain regular therapy indefinitely. Non-compliance is thought to be common in those taking medication at regular intervals over long periods of time, especially where they may perceive no immediate benefit (News editorial, 2002). This study extends previous work in which commonly held prescribing data is used as a surrogate marker of compliance and was designed to examine compliance in those stabilised on statins in a large General Practice. Design: Following ethical approval, details of all patients who had a single statin for 12 consecutive months with no changes in drug, frequency or dose, between December 1999 and March 2003, were obtained. Setting: An Eastern Birmingham Primary Care Trust GP surgery. Main Outcome Measures: A compliance ratio was calculated by dividing the number of days treatment by the number of doses prescribed. For a once daily regimen the ratio for full compliance_1. Results: 324 patients were identified. The average compliance ratio for the first six months of the study was 1.06 ± 0.01 (range 0.46 – 2.13) and for the full twelve months was 1.05 ± 0.01 (range 0.58 – 2.08). Conclusions: The data shown here indicates that as a group, long-term, stabilised statin users appear compliant. However, the range of values obtained show that there are identifiable subsets of patients who are not taking their therapy as prescribed. Although the apparent use of more doses than prescribed in some patients may result from medication hording, this cannot be the case in the patients who apparently take less. It has been demonstrated here that the compliance ratio can be used as an early indicator of problems allowing targeted compliance advice can be given where it will have the most benefit. References: News Editorial. Pharmacy records could be used to enhance statin compliance in elderly. Pharm. J. 2002; 269: 121.

Raumerkundungen:Der Erzähler Klaus Böldl

Mit stillen, unaufdringlichen Erzähltexten hat sich Klaus Böldl seit seinem vielgelobten Debüt Studie in Kristallbildung (1997) einen vorderen Rang in der deutschen Gegenwartsliteratur erschrieben. Seine Bücher, die zumeist den Norden Europas zum Ort der Handlung machen, loten die Untiefen eines Lebens an der Peripherie aus und schildern eindringlich die stillen Katastrophen, die sich im Inneren der Menschen abspielen. Dieser Materialienband versammelt erstmalig Beiträge namhafter internationaler Wissenschaftler zum bislang unzureichend erforschten Werk Böldls, die dem Versuch gewidmet sind, dem eigenwilligen Ton dieses Erzählers auf die Spur zu kommen. Ergänzt werden die Aufsätze durch einen poetologischen Essay des Autors, ein Interview mit Böldl sowie eine Bibliografie und Zeittafel. Die Herausgeber Claudia Gremler, Studium der Germanistik, Anglistik und Skandinavistik in Göttingen. 2001 Promotion über Herman Bang und Thomas Mann. Senior Lecturer in German an der Aston University, Birmingham. Veröffentlichungen zur Literatur des zwanzigsten und einundzwanzigsten Jahrhunderts. Uwe Schütte, promovierte 1997 an der University of East Anglia bei W.G. Sebald. Reader in German an der Aston University, Birmingham. Zahlreiche Monografien zur deutschsprachigen Gegenwartsliteratur. Zuletzt erschien: „Interventionen. Literaturkritik als Widerspruch bei W.G. Sebald“ (2014).

Interventionen:Literaturkritik als Widerspruch bei W. G. Sebald

"Ich habe einen Horror vor allen billigen Formen der Fiktionalisierung. Mein Medium ist die Prosa, nicht der Roman", begründet W. G. Sebald seine Neigung zum essayistischen Schreiben. Und eben diese Erzählprosa W. G. Sebalds bildet den Stoff, auf dem Uwe Schüttes eindrückliche und kritische Beobachtungen zum biografischen, literaturwissenschaftlichen und literarischen Werdegang des Autors von "Austerlitz" fußen. W. G. Sebald ist einer der anerkanntesten und zugleich umstrittensten Schriftsteller der deutschen Literatur des späten 20. Jahrhunderts. Sein vielgerühmtes literarisches Werk ruht auf einem Fundament, das größtenteils kaum bekannt ist, nämlich die im Verlauf von rund 30 Jahren entstandenen kritischen Schriften. "Interventionen" bietet erstmals einen so tiefschürfenden wie umfassenden Überblick über die Literaturkritik Sebalds unter Einbezug zuvor unveröffentlichter Archivdokumente. Uwe Schütte, der bei Sebald promoviert hat, legt anschaulich dar, wie sich Sebalds eigenwillige Literaturkritik – von der Magisterarbeit über Carl Sternheim bis zum polemischen Essay "Luftkrieg und Literatur" – entwickelt hat. Seine Studie skizziert damit die intellektuelle Biografie des vom Allgäu in die Provinz East Anglias entlaufenen Germanisten. Vor allem aber zeichnet "Interventionen" nach, wie Sebald im kritischen Widerspruch zu Germanistik und deutscher Nachkriegsliteratur selbst zum Schriftsteller wurde. Der Autor Uwe Schütte, geb. 1967, promovierte 1997 bei W. G. Sebald an der University of East Anglia und ist Reader in German an der Aston University in Birmingham, England.

Satisfaction with primary care:the perspectives of people with schizophrenia

Background. Schizophrenia affects up to 1% of the population in the UK. People with schizophrenia use the National Health Service frequently and over a long period of time. However, their views on satisfaction with primary care are rarely sought. Objectives. This study aimed to explore the elements of satisfaction with primary care for people with schizophrenia. Method. A primary care-based study was carried out using semi-structured interviews with 45 patients with schizophrenia receiving shared care with the Northern Birmingham Mental Health Trust between 1999 and 2000. Results. Five major themes that affect satisfaction emerged from the data: the exceptional potential of the consultation itself; the importance of aspects of the organization of primary care; the construction of the user in the doctor-patient relationship; the influence of stereotypes on GP behaviour; and the importance of hope for recovery. Conclusion. Satisfaction with primary care is multiply mediated. It is also rarely expected or achieved by this group of patients. There is a significant gap between the rhetoric and the reality of user involvement in primary care consultations. Acknowledging the tensions between societal and GP views of schizophrenia as an incurable life sentence and the importance to patients of hope for recovery is likely to lead to greater satisfaction with primary health care for people with schizophrenia.

Taming the TAME systems

This volume on TAME systems (Tense-aspect-mood-evidentiality) stems from the 10th Chronos conference that took place in Aston University (Birmingham, UK) on 18th-20th April 2011. The papers collated here are therefore a chosen selection from a stringent peer-review process. They also witness to the width and breadth of the interests pursued within the Chronos community. Besides the traditional Western European languages, this volume explores languages from Eastern Europe (Greek, Romanian, Russian) and much further afield such as Brazilian Portuguese, Korean or Mandarin Chinese. Little known languages from the Amazonian forest (Amondawa, Baure) or the Andes (Aymara) also come under scrutiny.

Public libraries and the right to the [smart] city

The future of public libraries has been threatened by funding cuts and new digital technologies which have led many people to question their traditional role and purpose. However, freedom of information, ready access to knowledge and information literacy in all its digital and analog guises are more important than ever. Thus, public libraries remain significant spaces and places where people can socially interact and learn. In many countries public libraries are reinventing themselves and part of this process has been the redesign of library services and the design and construction of new library building and facilities that articulate the values, purpose and role of what has been termed 'the next library'. Following discussion of new library developments in London, Birmingham and Worcester in the UK, Aarhus in Denmark and Helsinki in Finland, the article concludes that public libraries are now both social and media spaces as well as being important physical places that can help city dwellers decide what type of urban world they want to see.

Pathway to clozapine use:a comparison between a patient cohort from New Zealand and a cohort from the United Kingdom

Background and Objective: Clozapine has been available since the early 1990s. Studies continue to demonstrate its superior efficacy in treatment-resistant schizophrenia. Despite this, numerous studies show under-utilisation, delayed access and reluctance by psychiatrists to prescribe clozapine. This retrospective cross-sectional study compared the prescribing of clozapine in two adult cohorts under the care of large public mental health services in Auckland (New Zealand) and Birmingham (United Kingdom) on 31 March 2007. Method: Time from first presentation to clozapine initiation, prior antipsychotics trialled and antipsychotic co-prescribing were compared. Data included demographics, psychiatric diagnosis, co-morbid conditions, year of first presentation, admissions and pharmacological treatment (clozapine dose, start date, prior antipsychotics, co-prescribed antipsychotic). Results: Overall, 664 people were prescribed clozapine (402 Auckland; 262 Birmingham); mean daily dose of 384 mg (Auckland) and 429 mg (Birmingham). 53 % presented after 1990 and the average duration of time before starting clozapine was significantly longer in the Birmingham cohort (6.5 vs. 5.3 years) but this reduced in both cohorts to a 1-year mean in those presenting within the last 3 years. The average number of antipsychotics trialled pre-clozapine for those presenting since 1990 was significantly higher in the Birmingham cohort (4.3 vs. 3.1) but in both cohorts this similarly reduced in those presenting within the last 3 years. Antipsychotic co-prescribing was significantly higher in the Birmingham cohort (22.9 vs. 10.7 %). Conclusions: There is evidence that access to clozapine has improved over time in both cohorts, with a reduction in the duration between presentation and initiation of clozapine and number of different antipsychotics trialled pre-clozapine. These are very positive findings in terms of optimising outcomes with clozapine and are possibly due to the impact of guideline recommendations, increasing clinician, consumer and carer knowledge, and experience with clozapine and funding changes. © 2014 Springer International Publishing.

“This beer is off!”:building a dialogue game for servitization

Purpose: Development and evaluation of a prototype dialogue game for servitization is reported. Design/methodology/approach: This paper reports the design of the iServe game, from user centered design, through implementation using the Unity games engine to evaluation, a process which took 270 researcher hours. Findings: No relationship was found between either age or gaming experience and usability. Participants who identified themselves as non-experts in servitization recognized the potential of the game to teach servitization concepts to other novice learners. Originality/value: The potential of business games for education and executive development has been recognized but factors, including high development cost, inhibit their uptake. Games engines offer a potential solution.

Digital resources and their role in advanced service provision:a VRIN analysis

Purpose: We examine the role of digital resources in the context of advanced service provision to determine their strategic potential. Approach: We conduct a theoretical review of the literature to identify digital resources which we subsequently analyse with regards to their value, rarity, inimitability and non-substitutability (VRIN). Findings: Our analysis shows that the strategic value of the digital resources is unlocked through their complementarity. Value: The research has implications for the management of advanced services and contributes towards the grounding of servitization research in the wider economic and management theory.

Identifying (territorial) tensions in the servitization value chain

Purpose: To understand the tensions that servitization activities create between actors within networks. Design/methodology/approach: Interviews were conducted with manufacturers, intermediaries and customers across a range of industrial sectors. Findings: Tensions relating to two key sets of capabilities are identified: in developing or acquiring (i) operant technical expertise and (ii) operand service infrastructure. The former tension concerns whom knowledge is co-created with and where expertise resides. The latter involves a territorial investment component; firms developing strategies to acquire greater access to, or ownership of, infrastructures closer to customers. Developing and acquiring these capabilities is a strategic decision on the part of managers of servitizing firms, in order to gain recognized power and control in a particular territory. Originality/value: This paper explores how firms’ servitization activities involve value appropriation (from the rest of the network), contrasting with the narrative norm for servitization: that it creates additional value. There is a need to understand the tensions that servitization activities create within networks. Some firms may be able to improve servitization performance through co-operation rather than competition, generating co-opetitive relationships. Others may need to become much more aggressive, if they are to take a greater share of the ‘value’ from the value chain.

International session at the BCLA conference

Full text: It seems a long time ago now since we were at the BCLA conference. The excellent FIFA World Cup in Brazil kept us occupied over the summer as well as Formula 1, Wimbledon, Tour de France, Commonwealth Games and of course exam paper marking! The BCLA conference this year was held in Birmingham at the International Convention Centre which again proved to be a great venue. The number of attendees overall was up on previous years, and at a record high of 1500 people. Amongst the highlights at this year's annual conference was the live surgery link where Professor Sunil Shah demonstrated the differences in technique between traditional phacoemulsification cataract surgery and femtosecond assisted phacoemulsification cataract surgery. Dr. Raquel Gil Cazorla, a research optometrist at Aston University, assisted in the procedure including calibrating the femtosecond laser. Another highlight for me was the session that I chaired, which was the international session organised by IACLE (International Association of CL Educators). There was a talk by Mirjam van Tilborg about dry eye prevalence in the Netherlands and how it was managed by medical general practitioners (GPs) or optometrists. It was interesting to know that there are only 2 schools of optometry there and currently under 1000 registered optometrists there. It also seems that GPs were more likely to blame CL as the cause for dry eye whereas optometrists who had a fuller range of tests were better at solving the issue. The next part of the session included the presentation of 5 selected posters from around the world. The posters were also displayed in the main poster area but were selected to be presented here as they had international relevance. The posters were: 1. Motivators and Barriers for Contact Lens Recommendation and Wear by Nilesh Thite (India) 2. Contact lens hygiene among Saudi wearers by Dr. Ali Masmaly (Saudi) 3. Trends of contact lens prescribing and patterns of contact lens practice in Jordan by Dr. Mera Haddad (Jordan) 4. Contact Lens Behaviour in Greece by Dr. Dimitra Makrynioti (Greece) 5. How practitioners inform ametropes about the benefits of contact lenses and overcome the potential barriers: an Italian survey, by Dr. Fabrizio Zeri (Italy) It was interesting to learn about CL practice in different parts, for example the CL wearing population ration in Saudi Arabia is around 1:2 Male:Female (similar to other parts of the world) and although the sale of CL is restricted to registered practitioners there are many unregistered outlets, like clothing stores, that flout the rules. In Jordan some older practitioners will still advise patients to use tap water or even saliva! But thankfully the newer generation of practitioners have been educated not to advise this. In Greece one of the concerns was that some practitioners may advise patients to use disposable lenses for longer than they should and again it seems to be the practitioners with inadequate education that would do this. In India it was found that cost was one barrier to using contact lenses but also some practitioners felt that they shouldn’t offer CLs due to cost too. In Italy sensitive eyes and CL care and maintenance were the barriers to CL wear but the motivators were vision and comfort and aesthetics. Finally the international session ended with the IACLE travel award and educator awards presented by IACLE president Shehzad Naroo and BCLA President Andrew Yorke. The travel award went to Wang Ling, Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing, China. There were 3 regional Contact Lens Educator of the Year Awards sponsored by Coopervision and presented by Dr. J.C. Aragorn of Coopervision. 1. Asia Pacific Region – Dr. Rajeswari Mahadevan of Sankara Nethralaya Medical Research Foundation, Chennai, India 2. Americas Region – Dr. Sergio Garcia of University of La Salle, Bogotá and the University Santo Tomás, Bucaramanga, Colombia 3. Europe/Africa – Middle East Region: Dr. Eef van der Worp, affiliated with the University of Maastricht, the Netherlands The posters above were just a small selection of those displayed at this year's BCLA conference. If you missed the BCLA conference then you can see the abstracts for all posters and talks in a virtual issue of CLAE very soon. The poster competition was kindly sponsored by Elsevier. The poster winner this year was: Joan Gispets – Corneal and Anterior Chamber Parameters in Keratoconus The 3 runners up were: Debby Yeung – Scleral Lens Central Corneal Clearance Assessment with Biomicroscopy Sarah L. Smith – Subjective Grading of Lid Margin Staining Heiko Pult – Impact of Soft Contact Lenses on Lid Parallel Conjunctival Folds My final two highlights are a little more personal. Firstly, I was awarded Honorary Life Fellowship of the BCLA for my work with the Journal, and I would like to thank the BCLA, Elsevier, the editorial board of CLAE, the reviewers and the authors for their support of my role. My final highlight from the BCLA conference this year was the final presentation of the conference – the BCLA Gold Medal award. The recipient this year was Professor Philip Morgan with his talk ‘Changing the world with contact lenses’. Phil was the person who advised me to go to my first BCLA conference in 1994 (funnily he didn’t attend himself as he was busy getting married!) and now 20 years later he was being honoured with the accolade of being the BCLA Gold Medallist. The date of his BCLA medal addressed was shared with his father's birthday so a double celebration for Phil. Well done to outgoing BCLA President Andy Yorke and his team at the BCLA (including Nick Rumney, Cheryl Donnelly, Sarah Greenwood and Amir Khan) on an excellent conference. And finally welcome to new President Susan Bowers. Copyright © 2014 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paediatric prescribing practice and opinions of paediatric prescribers on ePrescribing

Objective The aim of this study was to provide an initial insight into current UK paediatric prescribing practice. Methods In 2012 focus groups were conducted at Birmingham Children's Hospital (UK specialist hospital) with both medical and non-medical prescribers and analysed using thematic analysis. Key findings Both sets of prescribers used a wide range of resources to support their prescribing decisions. Dosing information was most commonly checked, and a lack of specialist paediatric information was reported in existing resources. All groups had high expectations of the support functions that should be included in an electronic prescribing system and could see many potential benefits. Participants agreed that all staff should see the same drug alerts. The overwhelming concern was whether the current information technology infrastructure would support electronic prescribing. Conclusions Prescribers had high expectations of electronic prescribing, but lacked confidence in its delivery. Prescribers use a wide range of resources to support their decision making when prescribing in paediatrics.

Presentation

This volume on TAME systems (Tense-aspect-mood-evidentiality) stems from the 10th Chronos conference that took place in Aston University (Birmingham, UK) on 18th-20th April 2011. The papers collated here are therefore a chosen selection from a stringent peer-review process. They also witness to the width and breadth of the interests pursued within the Chronos community. Besides the traditional Western European languages, this volume explores languages from Eastern Europe (Greek, Romanian, Russian) and much further afield such as Brazilian Portuguese, Korean or Mandarin Chinese. Little known languages from the Amazonian forest (Amondawa, Baure) or the Andes (Aymara) also come under scrutiny.

Evaluating digital diabetic retinopathy screening in people aged 90 years and over

To evaluate the effectiveness of digital diabetic retinopathy screening in patients aged 90 years and over.MethodsThis is a retrospective analysis of 200 randomly selected patients eligible for diabetic retinopathy screening aged 90 years and over within the Birmingham, Solihull, and Black Country Screening Programme.ResultsOne hundred and seventy-nine (90%) patients attended screening at least once. 133 (74%) annual screening after their first screen, of whom 59% had no detectable diabetic retinopathy; 38 (21%) were referred for ophthalmology clinical assessment-36 for nondiabetic retinopathy reasons and two for diabetic maculopathy. Cataract accounted for 50% of all referrals for ophthalmology clinical assessment. Of the 133 patients placed on annual screening, 93 (70%) were screened at least once more. In terms of level of diabetic retinopathy, assessability or other ocular pathologies, 8 improved, 51 remained stable, and 31 deteriorated. Of the latter, 19 patients were referred for ophthalmology clinical assessment; none of these for diabetic retinopathy.ConclusionsScreening provides opportunistic identification of important nondiabetic retinopathy eye conditions. However, in view of the low identification rate of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in patients aged 90 years and over, and the current mission statement of the NHS Diabetic Eye Screening Programme, systematic annual diabetic retinopathy screening may not be justified in this age group of patients, but rather be performed in optometric practice.