High precision C-14 dating of Holocene peat deposits: A comparison of Bayesian calibration and wiggle-matching approaches

The chronologies of five northern European ombrotrophic peat bogs subjected to a large ANIS C-14 dating effort (32-44 dates/site) are presented here. The results of Bayesian calibration (BCal) of dates with a prior assumption of chronological ordering were compared with a Bayesian wiggle-match approach (Bpeat) which assumes constant linear accumulation over sections of the peat profile. Interpolation of BCal age estimates of dense sequences of C-14 dates showed variable patterns of peat accumulation with time, with changes in accumulation occurring at intervals ranging from 20 to 50 cm. Within these intervals, peat accumulation appeared to be relatively linear. Close analysis suggests that some of the inferred variations in accumulation rate were related to the plant macrofossil composition of the peat. The wiggle-matched age-depth models had relatively high chronological uncertainty within intervals of closely spaced 14 C dates, suggesting that the premise of constant linear accumulation over large sections of the peat profile is unrealistic. Age models based on the assumption of linear accumulation over large parts of a peat core (and therefore only effective over millennial timescales), are not compatible with studies examining environmental change during the Holocene, where variability often occurs at decadal to centennial time-scales. Ideally, future wiggle-match age models should be constrained, with boundaries between sections based on the plant macrofossil composition of the peat and physical-chemical parameters such as the degree of decomposition. Strategies for the selection of material for dating should be designed so that there should be enough C-14 dates to accurately reconstruct the peat accumulation rate of each homogeneous stratigraphic unit. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Revised age estimate of the Mjauvotn tephra A on the Faroe Islands based on Bayesian modelling of C-14 dates from two lake sequences

Tephra horizons are potentially perfect time markers for dating and cross-correlation among diverse Holocene palaeoenvironmental records such as ice cores and marine and terrestrial sequences, but we need to trust their age. Here we present a new age estimate of the Holocene Mjauvotn tephra A using accelerator mass spectrometry C-14 dates from two lakes on the Faroe Islands. With Bayesian age modelling it is dated to 6668-6533 cal. a BP (68.2% confidence interval) - significantly older and better constrained than the previous age. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Self-generated expressions of residual complaints following brain injury

Following brain injury there is often a prolonged period of deteriorating psychological condition, despite neurological stability or improvement. This is presumably consequent to the remission of anosognosia and the realisation of permanently worsened status. This change is hypothesised to be directed partially by the socially mediated processes which play a role in generating self-awareness and which here direct the reconstruction of the self as a permanently injured person. However, before we can understand this process of redevelopment, we need an unbiassed technique to monitor self-awareness. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 individuals with long-standing brain injuries to capture their spontaneous complaints and their level of insight into the implications of their difficulties. The focus was on what the participants said in their own words, and the extent to which self-knowledge of difficulties was spontaneously salient to the participants. Their responses were subjected to content analysis. Most participants were able to say that they had brain injuries and physical difficulties, many mentioned memory and attentional problems and a few made references to a variety of emotional disturbances. Content analysis of data from unbiassed interviews can reveal the extent to which people with brain injuries know about their difficulties. Social constructionist accounts of self-awareness and recovery are supported.

Current brood size and residual reproductive value predict offspring desertion in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides

Life-history theory suggests that offspring desertion can be an adaptive reproductive strategy, in which parents forgo the costly care of an unprofitable current brood to save resources for future reproduction. In the burying beetle, Nicrophorus vespilloides, parents commonly abandon their offspring to the care of others, resulting in female-only care, male-only care, brood parasitism, and the care of offspring sired by satellite males. Furthermore, when there is biparental care, males routinely desert the brood before larval development is complete, leaving females behind to tend their young. We attempted to understand these patterns of offspring desertion by using laboratory experiments to compare the fitness costs associated with parental care for each sex and the residual reproductive value of the 2 sexes. We also tested whether current brood size and residual reproductive value together predicted the incidence of brood desertion. We found that males and females each sustained fecundity costs as a consequence of caring for larvae and that these costs were of comparable magnitude. Nevertheless, males had greater residual reproductive value than females and were more likely than females to desert experimental broods. Our results can explain why males desert the brood earlier than females in nature and why female-only care is more common than male-only care. They also suggest that the tipping point from brood parasitism or satellite male behavior to communal breeding (and vice versa) depends on the value of the current brood relative to residual reproductive value.

Residual stress due to curing can initiate damage in porous bone cement: experimental and theoretical evidence

Residual stress due to shrinkage of polymethylmethacrylate bone cement after polymerisation is possibly one factor capable of initiating cracks in the mantle of cemented hip replacements. No relationship between residual stress and observed cracking of cement has yet been demonstrated. To investigate if any relationship exists, a physical model has been developed which allows direct observation of damage in the cement layer on the femoral side of total hip replacement. The model contains medial and lateral cement layers between a bony surface and a metal stem; the tubular nature of the cement mantle is ignored. Five specimens were prepared and examined for cracking using manual tracing of stained cracks, observed by transmission microscopy: cracks were located and measured using image analysis. A mathematical approach for the prediction of residual stress due to shrinkage was developed which uses the thermal history of the material to predict when stress-locking occurs, and estimates subsequent thermal stress. The residual stress distribution of the cement layer in the physical model was then calculated using finite element analysis. Results show maximum tensile stresses normal to the observed crack directions, suggesting a link between residual stress and preload cracking. The residual stress predicted depends strongly on the definition of the reference temperature for stress-locking. The highest residual stresses (4-7 MPa) are predicted for shrinkage from maximum temperature, in this case, magnitudes are sufficiently high to initiate cracks when the influence of stress raisers such as pores or interdigitation at the bone/cement interface are taken into account (up to 24 MPa when calculating stress around a pore according to the method of Harrigan and Harris (J. Biomech. 24(11) (1991) 1047-1058)). We conclude that the damage accumulation failure scenario begins before weight-bearing due to cracking induced by residual stress around pores or stress raisers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.