964 resultados para Bayesian Population Modelling


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To define the location of potential oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes in ocular melanoma we carried out comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) analysis on a population-based series of 25 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded primary tumors comprising 17 choroidal, 2 ciliary body, 4 iris, and 2 conjunctival melanomas. Twelve (48%) of the 25 melanomas showed no chromosomal changes and 13 (52%) had at least one chromosomal gain or loss. The mean number of CGH changes in all tumors was 3.3, with similar mean numbers of chromosomal gains (1.5) and losses (1.8). The highest number of chromosomal changes (i.e., nine) occurred in a conjunctival melanoma and included four changes not observed in tumors at any other ocular site (gains in 22q and 11p and losses in 6p and 17p). The most frequent gains in all primary ocular melanomas were on chromosome arm 8q (69%), 6p (31%) and 8p (23%) and the most frequent losses were on 6q (38%), 10q (23%), and 16q (23%). The most common pairing was gain in 8p and gain in 8q, implying a whole chromosome copy number increase; gains in 8p occurred only in conjunction with gains in 8q. The smallest regions of copy number alteration were mapped to gain of 8q21 and loss of 6q21, 10q21, and 16q22. Sublocalization of these chromosomal changes to single-band resolution should accelerate the identification of genes involved in the genesis of ocular melanoma.

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The standard mathematical models in population ecology assume that a population's growth rate is a function of its environment. In this paper we investigate an alternative proposal according to which the rate of change of the growth rate is a function of the environment and of environmental change. We focus on the philosophical issues involved in such a fundamental shift in theoretical assumptions, as well as on the explanations the two theories offer for some of the key data such as cyclic populations. We also discuss the relationship between this move in population ecology and a similar move from first-order to second-order differential equations championed by Galileo and Newton in celestial mechanics.

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The genetic basis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with its complex etiology is still largely elusive. Plasma levels of lipids and apolipoproteins are among the major quantitative risk factors for CVD and are well-established intermediate traits that may be more accessible to genetic dissection than clinical CVD end points. Chromosome 19 harbors multiple genes that have been suggested to play a role in lipid metabolism and previous studies indicated the presence of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) for cholesterol levels in genetic isolates. To establish the relevance of genetic variation at chromosome 19 for plasma levels of lipids and apolipoproteins in the general, out-bred Caucasian population, we performed a linkage study in four independent samples, including adolescent Dutch twins and adult Dutch, Swedish and Australian twins totaling 493 dizygotic twin pairs. The average spacing of short-tandem-repeat markers was 6 - 8 cM. In the three adult twin samples, we found consistent evidence for linkage of chromosome 19 with LDL cholesterol levels ( maximum LOD scores of 4.5, 1.7 and 2.1 in the Dutch, Swedish and Australian sample, respectively); no indication for linkage was observed in the adolescent Dutch twin sample. The QTL effects in the three adult samples were not significantly different and a simultaneous analysis of the samples increased the maximum LOD score to 5.7 at 60 cM pter. Bivariate analyses indicated that the putative LDL-C QTL also contributed to the variance in ApoB levels, consistent with the high genetic correlation between these phenotypes. Our study provides strong evidence for the presence of a QTL on chromosome 19 with a major effect on LDL-C plasma levels in outbred Caucasian populations.

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Ichthyosporea is a recently recognized group of morphologically simple eukaryotes, many of which cause disease in aquatic organisms. Ribosomal RNA sequence analyses place Ichthyosporea near the divergence of the animal and fungal lineages, but do not allow resolution of its exact phylogenetic position. Some of the best evidence for a specific grouping of animals and fungi (Opisthokonta) has come from elongation factor 1alpha, not only phylogenetic analysis of sequences but also the presence or absence of short insertions and deletions. We sequenced the EF-1alpha gene from the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus irregularis and determined its phylogenetic position using neighbor-joining, parsimony and Bayesian methods. We also sequenced EF-1alpha genes from four chytrids to provide broader representation within fungi. Sequence analyses and the presence of a characteristic 12 amino acid insertion strongly indicate that I. irregularis is a member of Opisthokonta, but do not resolve whether I. irregularis is a specific relative of animals or of fungi. However, the EF-1alpha of I. irregularis exhibits a two amino acid deletion heretofore reported only among fungi. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

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AIM: To describe the prevalence and forms of sexual dysfunction experienced by Australians, and compare these with people in the United States. METHODS: A cross sectional, telephone interview survey of a randomly selected sample of men (n = 876) and women (n = 908) aged between 18 and 59 years on the electoral roll in all states and territories of Australia (response rate = 61%) was conducted between November 1999 and April 2000. RESULTS: Large proportions of Australian men (55.0%) and women (60.5%) reported at least one sexual problem within the preceding year. More serious sexual dysfunction (> 3 symptoms) was observed in 13.2% of men and 19.7% of women. DISCUSSION: Australia and the USA are similar with regard to the high rate of symptoms of sexual dysfunction observed in the population. The low rate of treatment points to both patient and doctor reluctance to discuss sexual performance and practices.

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The interaction between genetic and environmental factors for PD was examined in a Chinese population. It was found that although the intron 2 MAOB (GT)(n) repeat polymorphism was not associated with PID in the population, a relationship might have been masked by the protective effect of tea drinking. In individuals who did not drink tea (<1 cup/day), the possession of short length less than or equal to 178 bp (GT), alleles conferred a borderline significant increased risk for PD (adjusted OR = 1.47; C.l. = 1.03-2. 1). As the extent of tea consumption increased, the association between the less than or equal to178 bp allele and PD disappeared. This result suggests that the MAOB gene may be associated with PD in Chinese if the putative protective effect of tea drinking is taken into account. The significance of this finding is unclear as the study may be limited because of its marginal significance and limited numbers. However, it does demonstrate the importance of considering putative positive and negative environmental risk factors in any examination of genetic risk factors for PD. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Adolescents and adults with CF have lower bone mineral density (BMD) than normal, but its relationship with phenotype is not well understood. Point FEV1% predicted (FEV) and rate of change of FEV are biased estimates of disease severity, because progressively older subjects represent a selected survivor population, with females at greater risk of death than males. To investigate the relationship between BMD and phenotype we used an index (predicted age at death) derived from Bayesian estimates of slope and intercept of FEV, age at last measurement and survival status. Predictive equations for the index were derived from 97 subjects (78 survivors) from the RCH CF clinic, and applied to a group of 102 comparable subjects who had BMD measured, classified as having‘mild’ ()75th), ‘moderate’ (25– 75th), or ‘severe’ (-25th centile) phenotype. Total body (TB) and lumbar spine (LS) BMD z-scores (Z) were compared, adjustingfor gender effects, using 2-way ANOVA. Annual mean change in FEV segregated, as expected, according to phenotype, ‘severe’ (ns25), ‘moderate’ (ns51) and ‘mild’ (ns25) y3.01(y3.73 to y2.30)%, y0.85(y1.36 to y0.35)%, 2.70(1.92 to 3.46)%, respectively, with no gender difference. LS and TB BMDZ were different in each phenotype (P-s 0.002), LS BMDZ for ‘severe’, ‘moderate’ and ‘mild’ y1.63(CI: y2.07 to y 1.19), y0.86(CI: y1.17 to y0.55), y0.06(CI: y0.54 to 0.41). Males had lower LS BMDZ than females overall (y1.22 (CI: y1.54 to y0.91) vs. y0.48(CI: y 0.84 to y0.12) Ps0.002). In the ‘severe’ group, males had lower TB BMDZ and LS BMDZ (PF0.002). Low BMD is associated with ‘moderate’ and ‘severe’ phenotypes, with relative preservation in females in the ‘severe’ group. Female biology (reproductive fitness) might promote resistance to bone resorption at a critical level of BMD loss.

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In a 2-yr multiple-site field study conducted in western Nebraska during 1999 and 2000, optimum dryland corn (Zea mays L.) population varied from less than 1.7 to more than 5.6 plants m(-2), depending largely on available water resources. The objective of this study was to use a modeling approach to investigate corn population recommendations for a wide range of seasonal variation. A corn growth simulation model (APSIM-maize) was coupled to long-term sequences of historical climatic data from western Nebraska to provide probabilistic estimates of dryland yield for a range of corn populations. Simulated populations ranged from 2 to 5 plants m(-2). Simulations began with one of three levels of available soil water at planting, either 80, 160, or 240 mm in the surface 1.5 m of a loam soil. Gross margins were maximized at 3 plants m(-2) when starting available water was 160 or 240 mm, and the expected probability of a financial loss at this population was reduced from about 10% at 160 mm to 0% at 240 mm. When starting available water was 80 mm, average gross margins were less than $15 ha(-1), and risk of financial loss exceeded 40%. Median yields were greatest when starting available soil water was 240 mm. However, perhaps the greater benefit of additional soil water at planting was reduction in the risk of making a financial loss. Dryland corn growers in western Nebraska are advised to use a population of 3 plants m(-2) as a base recommendation.

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The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.

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With recent advances in molecular biology, it is now possible to use the trace amounts of DNA in faeces to non-invasively sample endangered species for genetic studies. A highly vulnerable population of approximately 100 great bustards (Otis tarda) exists in Morocco necessitating the use of non-invasive protocols to study their genetic structure. Here we report a reliable silica-based method to extract DNA from great bustard faeces. We found that successful extraction and amplification correlated strongly with faeces freshness and composition. We could not extract amplifiable DNA from 30% of our samples as they were dry or contained insect material. However 100% of our fresh faecal samples containing no obvious insect material worked, allowing us to assess the levels of genetic variation among 25 individuals using a 542 bp control region sequence. We were able to extract DNA from four out of five other avian species, demonstrating that faeces represents a suitable source of DNA for population genetics studies in a broad range of species.

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The associations of physical activity and sedentary behavior with barriers, enjoyment, and preferences were examined in a population-based mail survey of 1,332 adults. Respondents reporting high enjoyment and preference for physical activity were more likely to report high levels of activity. Those reporting cost, the weather, and personal barriers to physical activity were less likely to be physically active. Preference for sedentary behavior was associated with the decreased likelihood of being physically active, and the weather as a barrier to physical activity was associated with the increased likelihood of sedentary behavior. These constructs can be used to examine individual and environmental influences on physical activity and sedentary behavior in specific populations and could inform the development of targeted interventions.

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A new wavelet-based adaptive framework for solving population balance equations (PBEs) is proposed in this work. The technique is general, powerful and efficient without the need for prior assumptions about the characteristics of the processes. Because there are steeply varying number densities across a size range, a new strategy is developed to select the optimal order of resolution and the collocation points based on an interpolating wavelet transform (IWT). The proposed technique has been tested for size-independent agglomeration, agglomeration with a linear summation kernel and agglomeration with a nonlinear kernel. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions (PSDs) are in excellent agreement. Further work on the solution of the general population balance equations with nucleation, growth and agglomeration and the solution of steady-state population balance equations will be presented in this framework. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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O câncer de mama é a principal neoplasia maligna que acomete o sexo feminino no Brasil. O câncer de mama é hoje uma doença de extrema importância para a saúde pública nacional, motivando ampla discussão em torno das medidas que promova o seu diagnóstico precoce, a redução em sua morbidade e mortalidade. A presente pesquisa possui três objetivos, cujos resultados encontram-se organizados em artigos. O primeiro objetivo buscou analisar a completude dos dados do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade sobre os óbitos por câncer de mama em mulheres no Espírito Santo, Sudeste e Brasil (1998 a 2007). Realizou-se um estudo descritivo analítico baseado em dados secundários, onde foi analisado o número absoluto e percentual de não preenchimento das variáveis nas declarações de óbitos. Adotou-se escore para avaliar os graus de não completude. Os resultados para as variáveis sexo e idade foram excelentes tanto para o Espírito Santo, Sudeste e Brasil. O preenchimento das variáveis raça/cor, grau de escolaridade e estado civil apresentam problemas no Espírito Santo. Enquanto no Sudeste e Brasil as variáveis raça/cor e escolaridade têm tendência decrescente para a não completude, no Espírito Santo a tendência se mantém estável. Para a variável estado civil, a não completude tem tendência crescente no Estado do Espírito Santo. O segundo objetivo foi analisar a evolução das taxas de mortalidade por câncer de mama, em mulheres no Espírito Santo no período de 1980 a 2007. Estudo de série temporal, cujos dados sobre óbitos foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade e as estimativas populacionais segundo idade e anos-calendário, do Instituto Brasileiro Geografia e Estatística. Os coeficientes específicos 9 de mortalidade, segundo faixa etária, foram calculados anualmente. A análise de tendência foi realizada por meio da padronização das taxas de mortalidade pelo método direto, em que a população do senso IBGE-2000, foi considerada padrão. No período de estudo, ocorreram 2.736 óbitos por câncer de mama. O coeficiente de mortalidade neste período variou de 3,41 a 10,99 por 100.000 mulheres. Os resultados indicam que há tendência de mortalidade por câncer de mama ao longo da série (p=0,001 com crescimento de 75,42%). Todas as faixas etárias a partir de 30 anos apresentaram tendência de crescimento da mortalidade estatisticamente significante (p=0,001). Os percentuais de crescimento foram aumentando, segundo as idades mais avançadas, sendo 48,4% na faixa de 40 a 49 anos, chegando a 92,3%, na faixa de 80 anos e mais. O terceiro objetivo foi realizar a análise espacial dos óbitos em mulheres por câncer de mama no estado do Espírito Santo, nos anos de 2003 a 2007, com análise das correlações espaciais dessa mortalidade e componentes do município. O cenário foi o Estado do Espírito Santo, composto por 78 municípios. Para análise dos dados, utilizou-se a abordagem bayesiana (métodos EBest Global e EBest Local) para correção de taxas epidemiológicas. Calculou-se o índice I de Moran, para dependência espacial em nível global e a estatística Moran Local. As maiores taxas estão concentradas em 19 municípios pertencentes às Microrregiões: Metropolitana (Fundão, Vitória, Vila Velha, Viana, Cariacica e Guarapari), Metrópole Expandida Sul (Anchieta, Alfredo Chaves), Pólo Cachoeiro (Vargem Alta, Rio Novo do Sul, Mimoso do Sul, Cachoeiro de Itapemirim, Castelo, Jerônimo Monteiro, Bom Jesus do Norte, Apiacá e Muqui) e Caparaó (Alegre e São José do Calçado). Os resultados da Estimação Bayesiana (Índice de Moran) dos óbitos por câncer de mama em mulheres ocorridos no estado do Espírito Santo, segundo os dados brutos e 10 ajustados indicam a existência de correlação espacial significativa para o mapa Local (I = 0,573; p = 0,001) e Global (I = 0,118; p = 0,039). Os dados brutos não apresentam correlação espacial (I = 0,075; p = 0,142).