916 resultados para Banking interest rate and spread
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This thesis focuses on two aspects of European economic integration: exchange rate stabilization between non-euro Countries and the Euro Area, and real and nominal convergence of Central and Eastern European Countries. Each Chapter covers these aspects from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Chapter 1 investigates whether the introduction of the euro was accompanied by a shift in the de facto exchange rate policy of European countries outside the euro area, using methods recently developed by the literature to detect "Fear of Floating" episodes. I find that European Inflation Targeters have tried to stabilize the euro exchange rate, after its introduction; fixed exchange rate arrangements, instead, apart from official policy changes, remained stable. Finally, the euro seems to have gained a relevant role as a reference currency even outside Europe. Chapter 2 proposes an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy, using Sweden as a case study, to find whether stabilization of the exchange rate played a role in the Monetary Policy rule of the Riksbank. The results show that it did not influence interest rate setting; exchange rate stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers suggests that the traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with non-traded sectors wages adjusting. We show that large heterogeneity across countries is present, and sheltered and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector.
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Die vorliegende Dissertation besteht aus sechs Kapiteln und trägt zur Forschung in den Bereichen der Finanzmarktpolitik und der Geldpolitik bei. Das zweite Kapitel zeigt die Wechselbeziehung zwischen Geldmarktanspannungen und der Stabilität des Finanzsystems auf. Mittels der theoretischen Literatur werden verschiedene Einflussfaktoren einer aggregierten Liquiditätsnachfragefunktion präsentiert. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht den Informationsgehalt der Ergebnisse der Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte für den europäischen Geldmarkt. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich seit der Finanzkrise der Informationsgehalt der Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte in zweierlei Hinsicht verändert hat. Im vierten Kapitel untersuchen wir die Wirksamkeit der Geldpolitik während der Finanzkrise europäische Geldmarktzinssätze zu steuern. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf eine erhebliche Divergenz zwischen den Zinssätzen und den Erwartungen über die zukünftige Geldpolitik hin. Weiterhin finden wir heraus, dass die unkonventionellen Maßnahmen der EZB für einen Rückgang der Euriborsätze von bis zu 60 Basispunkten verantwortlich sind. Das fünfte Kapitel beschäftigt sich mit der Funktionsweise des besonderen geldpolitischen Instrumentariums der Schweizerischen Nationalbank.
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Isochrysis galbana is a widely-used strain in aquaculture in spite of its low productivity. To maximize the productivity of processes based on this microalgae strain, a model was developed considering the influence of irradiance, temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen concentration on the photosynthesis and respiration rate. Results demonstrate that this strain tolerates temperatures up to 35ºC but it is highly sensitive to irradiances higher than 500 µE·m-2·s-1 and dissolved oxygen concentrations higher than 11 mg·l-1. With the researcher group of the “Universidad de Almeria”, the developed model was validated using data from an industrial-scale outdoor tubular photobioreactor demonstrating that inadequate temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations reduce productivity to half that which is maximal, according to light availability under real outdoor conditions. The developed model is a useful tool for managing working processes, especially in the development of new processes based on this strain and to take decisions regarding optimal control strategies. Also the outdoor production of Isochrysis galbana T-iso in industrial size tubular photobioreactors (3.0 m3) has been studied. Experiments were performed modifying the dilution rate and evaluating the biomass productivity and quality, in addition to the overall performance of the system. Results confirmed that T-iso can be produced outdoor at commercial scale in continuous mode, productivities up to 20 g·m-2·day-1 of biomass rich in proteins (45%) and lipids (25%) being obtained. The utilization of this type of photobioreactors allows controlling the contamination and pH of the cultures, but daily variation of solar radiation imposes the existence of inadequate dissolved oxygen concentration and temperature at which the cells are exposed to inside the reactor. Excessive dissolved oxygen reduced the biomass productivity to 68% of maximal, whereas inadequate temperature reduces to 63% of maximal. Thus, optimally controlling these parameters the biomass productivity can be duplicated. These results confirm the potential to produce this valuable strain at commercial scale in optimally designed/operated tubular photobioreactors as a biotechnological industry.
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BACKGROUND: Local anaesthetic blocks of the greater occipital nerve (GON) are frequently performed in different types of headache, but no selective approaches exist. Our cadaver study compares the sonographic visibility of the nerve and the accuracy and specificity of ultrasound-guided injections at two different sites. METHODS: After sonographic measurements in 10 embalmed cadavers, 20 ultrasound-guided injections of the GON were performed with 0.1 ml of dye at the classical site (superior nuchal line) followed by 20 at a newly described site more proximal (C2, superficial to the obliquus capitis inferior muscle). The spread of dye and coloration of nerve were evaluated by dissection. RESULTS: The median sonographic diameter of the GON was 4.2 x 1.4 mm at the classical and 4.0 x 1.8 mm at the new site. The nerves were found at a median depth of 8 and 17.5 mm, respectively. In 16 of 20 in the classical approach and 20 of 20 in the new approach, the nerve was successfully coloured with the dye. This corresponds to a block success rate of 80% (95% confidence interval: 58-93%) vs 100% (95% confidence interval: 86-100%), which is statistically significant (McNemar's test, P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm that the GON can be visualized using ultrasound both at the level of the superior nuchal line and C2. This newly described approach superficial to the obliquus capitis inferior muscle has a higher success rate and should allow a more precise blockade of the nerve.
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Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.
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BACKGROUND: Supraomohyoid neck dissection (SOHND) is currently performed in patients with carcinoma of the oral cavity with clinically negative neck. Most investigators consider SOHND as a staging procedure. METHODS: Records of 100 patients with cancer of the oral cavity and clinically negative neck undergoing SOHND were reviewed. The rate and significance of occult metastases are evaluated, the neck recurrences are analyzed and the indication of adjuvant radiation of pN+ necks is discussed. RESULTS: In 34 of 1814 of analyzed lymph nodes, metastatic disease was detected as follows: 30 macrometastases and 4 micrometastases. In 13 of 34 metastases (38%), extracapsular spread was observed. Twenty of 100 patients (20%) had to be upstaged. In 9 of 87 (10%) patients without local recurrence and with a minimal follow-up of 24 months, 5 ipsilateral (4 within the dissection field) and 5 contralateral neck recurrences were observed. Regional recurrence developed in 4% and 35% of patients with pN0 and pN+ necks, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In 20% of patients with oral cavity tumors and pN0 neck, occult metastases were disclosed. Neck recurrences developed significantly more often in patients with pN+ than in those with pN0 necks. To evaluate the exact indication for an adjuvant treatment of patients with cN0/pN+ necks, prospective studies should be performed.
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PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that the extension of areas with increased fundus autofluorescence (FAF) outside atrophic patches correlates with the rate of spread of geographic atrophy (GA) over time in eyes with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: The database of the multicenter longitudinal natural history Fundus Autofluorescence in AMD (FAM) Study was reviewed for patients with GA recruited through the end of August 2003, with follow-up examinations within at least 1 year. Only eyes with sufficient image quality and with diffuse patterns of increased FAF surrounding atrophy were chosen. In standardized digital FAF images (excitation, 488 nm; emission, >500 nm), total size and spread of GA was measured. The convex hull (CH) of increased FAF as the minimum polygon encompassing the entire area of increased FAF surrounding the central atrophic patches was quantified at baseline. Statistical analysis was performed with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). RESULTS: Thirty-nine eyes of 32 patients were included (median age, 75.0 years; interquartile range [IQR], 67.8-78.9); median follow-up, 1.87 years; IQR, 1.43-3.37). At baseline, the median total size of atrophy was 7.04 mm2 (IQR, 4.20-9.88). The median size of the CH was 21.47 mm2 (IQR, 15.19-28.26). The median rate of GA progression was 1.72 mm2 per year (IQR, 1.10-2.83). The area of increased FAF around the atrophy (difference between the CH and the total GA size at baseline) showed a positive correlation with GA enlargement over time (rho=0.60; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: FAF characteristics that are not identified by fundus photography or fluorescein angiography may serve as a prognostic determinant in advanced atrophic AMD. As the FAF signal originates from lipofuscin (LF) in postmitotic RPE cells and since increased FAF indicates excessive LF accumulation, these findings would underscore the pathophysiological role of RPE-LF in AMD pathogenesis.
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Heart rate variability (HRV) and cardiorespiratory coordination, i.e. the temporal interplay between oscillations of heartbeat and respiration, reflect information related to the cardiovascular and autonomic nervous system. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between spectral measures of HRV and measures of cardiorespiratory coordination. In 127 subjects from a normal population a 24 h Holter ECG was recorded. Average heart rate (HR) and the following HRV parameters were calculated: very low (VLF), low (LF) and high frequency (HF) oscillations and LF/HF. Cardiorespiratory coordination was quantified using average respiratory rate (RespR), the ratio of heart rate and respiratory rate (HRR), the phase coordination ratio (PCR) and the extent of cardiorespiratory coordination (PP). Pearson's correlation coefficient r was used to quantify the relationship between each pair of the variables across all subjects. HR and HRR correlated strongest during daytime (r = 0.89). LF/HF and PP showed a negative correlation to a reasonable degree (r = -0.69). During nighttime sleep these correlations decreased whereas the correlation between HRR and RespR (r = -0.47) as well as between HRR and PCR (r = 0.73) increased substantially. In conclusion, HRR and PCR deliver considerably different information compared to HRV measures whereas PP is partially linked reciprocally to LF/HF.
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Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.
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The effects of Si and cooling rate are investigated for their effect on the mechanical properties and microstructure. Three alloys were chosen with varying C and Si contents and an attempt to keep the remainder of the elements present constant. Within each heat, three test blocks were poured. Two blocks had chills – one with a fluid flowing through it to cool it (active chill) and one without the fluid (passive) – and the third block did not have a chill. Cooling curves were gathered and analyzed. The mechanical properties of the castings were correlated to the microstructure, cooling rate and Si content of each block. It was found that an increase in Si content increased the yield stress, tensile strength and hardness but decreased the impact toughness, elongation and Young’s modulus. The fast cooling rates produced by the chills caused a high nodule count in the castings along with a fine ferrite grain size and a high degree of nodularity. The fine microstructures, in turn, increased the strength and ductile to brittle transition temperature (DBTT) of the castings. The fast cooling rate was not adequate to overcome the dramatic increase in DBTT that is caused by the addition of Si.
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Since the advent of automobiles, alcohol has been considered a possible engine fuel1,2. With the recent increased concern about the high price of crude oil due to fluctuating supply and demand and environmental issues, interest in alcohol based fuels has increased2,3. However, using pure alcohols or blends with conventional fuels in high percentages requires changes to the engine and fuel system design2. This leads to the need for a simple and accurate conventional fuels-alcohol blends combustion models that can be used in developing parametric burn rate and knock combustion models for designing more efficient Spark Ignited (SI) engines. To contribute to this understanding, numerical simulations were performed to obtain detailed characteristics of Gasoline-Ethanol blends with respect to Laminar Flame Speed (LFS), autoignition and Flame-Wall interactions. The one-dimensional premixed flame code CHEMKIN® was applied to simulate the burning velocity and autoignition characteristics using the freely propagating model and closed homogeneous reactor model respectively. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to obtain detailed flow, temperature, and species fields for Flame-wall interactions. A semi-detailed validated chemical kinetic model for a gasoline surrogate fuel developed by Andrae and Head4 was used for the study of LFS and Autoignition. For the quenching study, a skeletal chemical kinetic mechanism of gasoline surrogate, having 50 species and 174 reactions was used. The surrogate fuel was defined as a mixture of pure n-heptane, isooctane, and toluene. For LFS study, the ethanol volume fraction was varied from 0 to 85%, initial pressure from 4 to 8 bar, initial temperature from 300 to 900K, and dilution from 0 to 32%. Whereas for Autoignition study, the ethanol volume fraction was varied between 0 to 85%, initial pressure was varied between 20 to 60 bar, initial temperature was varied between 800 to 1200K, and the dilution was varied between 0 to 32% at equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 to represent the in-cylinder conditions of a SI engine. For quenching study three Ethanol blends, namely E0, E25 and E85 are described in detail at an initial pressure of 8 atm and 17 atm. Initial wall temperature was taken to be 400 K. Quenching thicknesses and heat fluxes to the wall were computed. The laminar flame speed was found to increase with ethanol concentration and temperature but decrease with pressure and dilution. The autoignition time was found to increase with ethanol concentration at lower temperatures but was found to decrease marginally at higher temperatures. The autoignition time was also found to decrease with pressure and equivalence ratio but increase with dilution. The average quenching thickness was found to decrease with an increase in Ethanol concentration in the blend. Heat flux to the wall increased with increase in ethanol percentage in the blend and at higher initial pressures. Whereas the wall heat flux decreased with an increase in dilution. Unburned Hydrocarbon (UHC) and CO % was also found to decrease with ethanol concentration in the blend.
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To test a system with milk flow-controlled pulsation, milk flow was recorded in 29 Holstein cows during machine milking. The three different treatments were routine milking (including a pre-stimulation of 50-70 s), milking with a minimum of teat preparation and milking with milk flow-controlled b-phase, i.e. with a gradually elongated b-phase of the pulsation cycle with increasing milk flow rate and shortening again during decreasing milk flow. For data evaluation the herd was divided into three groups based on the peak flow rate at routine milking (group 1: <3.2 kg/min; group 2: 3.2-4.5 kg/min; group 3: >4.5 kg/min). Compared with routine milking, milking with milk flow-controlled b-phase caused a significant elevation of the peak flow rate and the duration of incline lasted longer especially in cows with a peak flow rate of >3.2 kg/min in routine milking. In milking with a minimum of teat preparation the duration of incline lasted longer compared with the two other treatments. Bimodality of milk flow, i.e. delayed milk ejection at the start of milking, was most frequent at milking with a minimum of teat preparation. No significant differences between routine milking and milking with milk flow-controlled b-phase were detected for all other milking characteristics. In summary, milking with milk flow-controlled b-phase changes the course of milk removal, however mainly in cows with high peak flow rates.
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The rate and direction of fibroblast locomotion is regulated by the formation of lamellipodia. In turn, lamellipodal formation is modulated in part by adhesion of that region of the cell from which the lamellipodia will extend or orginate. Cell surface $\beta$1,4-galactosyltransferase (GalTase) is one molecule that has been demonstrated to mediate cellular interactions with extracellular matrices. In the case of fibroblasts, GalTase must be associated with the actin cytoskeleton in order to mediate cellular adhesion to laminin. The object of this study was to determine how altering the quantity of GalTase capable of associating with the cytoskeleton impacts cell motility. Stably transfected cell lines were generated that have increased or decreased levels of surface GalTase relative to its cytoskeleton-binding sites. Biochemical analyses of these cells reveals that there is a limited number of sites on the cytoskeleton with which GalTase can interact. Altering the ratio of GalTase to its cytoskeleton binding sites does not affect the cells' abilities to spread, nor does it affect the localization of cytoskeletally-bound GalTase. It does, however, appear to interfere with stress fiber bundling. Cells with altered GalTase:cytoskeleton ratios change their polarity of laminin more frequently, as compared to controls. Therefore, the ectopic expression of GalTase cytoplasmic domains impairs a cell's ability to control the placement of lamellipodia. Cells were then tested for their ability to respond to a directional stimulus, a gradient of platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF). It was found that the ability of a cell to polarize in response to a gradient of PDGF is directly proportional to the quantity of GalTase associated with its cytoskeleton. Finally, the rate of unidirectional cell migration on laminin was found to be directly dependent upon surface GalTase expression and is inversely related to the ability of surface GalTase to interact with the cytoskeleton. It is therefore proposed that cytoskeletal assembly and lamellipodal formation can be regulated by the altering the ratio of cytoplasmic domains for specific matrix receptors, such as GalTase, relative to their cytoskeleton-binding sites. ^
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OBJECTIVE: In recent years research investigating various health benefits of Taiji practice has markedly increased. Despite this growing scientific interest, essential questions such as to what extent a Taiji course may exert noticeable effects in participants’ everyday life, what these effects are, and how and where potential transfer effects occur, have hardly been considered. The aim of our study was to explore transfer effects from a Taiji course into participants’ daily lives. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal observational study in 45 healthy participants at the end of their three-month Taiji beginner course (tp1) and at two months (tp2) as well as one year after course completion (tp3). Participants were asked to report their Taiji practice behavior at all time points, as well as to rate and describe perceived transfer effects of Taiji course contents on their daily life at tp1 and tp3. RESULTS: Transfer effects were reported by 91.1% of all respondents after course completion (tp1) and persisted in 73.3% at the one-year follow-up assessment (tp3), counting “increase of self-efficacy”, “improvement of stress management”, and “increase of body awareness” as the most frequently mentioned effects. Transfer effects predominantly occurred in participants’ work and social environments, as well as during everyday activities in public areas. While selfreliant Taiji practice frequency significantly decreased from 82.2% at tp1 to 55.6% at tp3 (P < 0.001), the magnitude of self-reported transfer effects did not (P = 0.35). As explorative analyses revealed, regular Taiji course attendance was highly correlated with stronger transfer effects at tp1 (r = 0.51; P < 0.001) and tp3 (r = 0.35; P = 0.020). Participants reporting high self-reliant Taiji practice frequency at tp2 were likely to maintain a regular practice routine at tp3 (r = 0.42; P < 0.004), whereas self-reliant practice frequency and transfer effects at tp1 were positively correlated with self-reliant practice frequency at tp3 on a trend level (r < 0.27; P > 0.08). CONCLUSION: Our data underline the importance of regular course participation for pronounced and long lasting transfer effects into participants’ everyday life. We discuss that several context and process-related aspects of a Taiji intervention are potentially relevant factors for enhancement of transfer effect.